The ongoing stratospheric warming

pistolpetes11

+1

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

i want the effects of this stratospheric warming to deliver us an epic event before this winter (it still is winter for meteorologists) says goodbye to us.

epic from my perspective would be at least four-five inches of lying snow over much of the country.

a polar low would be ideal, where we get four to five hours of heavy snow followed by a succession of troughs coming down from the north in bitter polar air, which results in prolonged spells of heavy snow for many.

it's not too much to ask, is it?

The ECMWF is having none of it and neither is the UKMO.
Both of them in recent weeks have made a GFS [the only "big"model showing cold now] printout good for toilet paper.
For example the GFS did not model our recent cold spell properly at all.


The SW may have some basis in fact but it's hopecasting to suggest that it would as opposed to could tilt a high such that the cold that it may as opposed to will generate to advect towards this outpost in the East Atlantic.

Strat warming is no good to us if it doesnt have a lucky hp tilt somewhere.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

The ECMWF is having none of it and neither is the UKMO.
Both of them in recent weeks have made a GFS [the only "big"model showing cold now] printout good for toilet paper.
For example the GFS did not model our recent cold spell properly at all.


The SW may have some basis in fact but it's hopecasting to suggest that it would as opposed to could tilt a high such that the cold that it may as opposed to will generate to advect towards this outpost in the East Atlantic.

Strat warming is no good to us if it doesnt have a lucky hp tilt somewhere.

yeah, i see there is a heated dispute going on in another forum about the sw and what you refer to as "hopecasting".

so, it seems our best hope is a good old fashioned northerly airstream before the month is out to bring us some snow

i wonder if the high pressure, which is building up over us, moves westwards out into the atlantic would it allow some arctic air to come down over us.

if so we might get a couple of decent wintry days out of it.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

so, it seems our best hope is a good old fashioned northerly airstream before the month is out to bring us some snow

I wouldn't rule out an Easterly but one in march with a non freezing [it needs to be -5 maxes there at least in the likes of paris and Brussells] near Europe will just make for boring cold rain showers away from the mountains.

wonder if the high pressure, which is building up over us, moves westwards out into the atlantic would it allow some arctic air to come down over us.

if so we might get a couple of decent wintry days out of it.

If you could get it to tilt correctly [which is all I said was needed on net weather and without which strat warming is a waste of time] so as to let in a northerly or from an imby perspective a northeasterly [the jan 87 atlantic high did that perfectly] then we see the goods.

Redsunset

well well well this certainly has been a learning experience.this link thats on nw shows exactly what happened for us to get the recent cold spell.the splitting polar vortex with a tail of it projecting toward western europe saw that finger of cold reach us.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36972

now as i said at the start of this thread,alot of things needed to come together for us to get that little iceage most of us so crave.in saying that i still think those easterlys have to still come down to give us a couple of waves.but as bb as also pointed out we need blocking otherwise all would be in vain.i feel imo its by no means over.but its def something to look back on when all over to see what actually came of this.seems only thing at the mo to be proven to give us cold is that mighty polar vortex that split.pity it wasn't sitting over scandinavia.would have def been something special. the models are struggling with all of this too so would be of no surprise to me if an easterly came out of the blue on them an held into a relieable timeframe.all is not lost yet.

Redsunset

Hugh link on this difficult subject for all to digest.

http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/03/08/the-atmosphere-dancing-in-the-solar-wind-el-nino-shows-his-face/