Will the "big four" be the top 4 this year?

PHB

Helix wrote: »

why do people think this?

Because it's an easy way to write them off as lucky

bigstar

PHB wrote: »

Because it's an easy way to write them off as lucky

they have been lucky, but every team needs some luck to have a great season. theyve also been very good, but i think they lack the depth that the top four have and that will matter end the run up to the end of the season. city had a cracking start to last, but fell away rapidly in the second half. i think villa will hold fifth but arsenal will overtake them as the season progresses. uefa cup is coming up too. you need 22 first teamers to compete these days

JPA

bigstar wrote: »

they have been lucky, but every team needs some luck to have a great season. theyve also been very good, but i think they lack the depth that the top four have and that will matter end the run up to the end of the season. city had a cracking start to last, but fell away rapidly in the second half. i think villa will hold fifth but arsenal will overtake them as the season progresses. uefa cup is coming up too. you need 22 first teamers to compete these days

Like Arsenal have 22 first teamers?

LuckyLloyd

bohsman wrote: »

I put my money where my mouth is at the start of the season in a bet against LuckyLloyd. So far Ive seen nothing to change my mind other than the league table (from the wise words of Paul Osam - I wouldnt pay too much attention to the table, it changes every week) Nobody has shown championship form yet, United should be nowhere near the top of the table after the disastrous start they had, theyve been let back in and are starting to show form. Question marks over Chelsea and Arsenal but I think theyre more used to pressure than Liverpool and I think Villa can keep grinding out results.

I am looking forward to spending your money. It'll be enough for some decent splurging!!

Dubliner28

Can see Villa and maybe Everton keeping pressure on them for 4th.

bigstar

JPA wrote: »

Like Arsenal have 22 first teamers?

yep plus some great reserve players

busted flush

PHB wrote: »

Because it's an easy way to write them off as lucky

+1

Rich1691

Villa could break the top four but I'm not sure signing Heskey is the way to do it.

Helix

Rich1691 wrote: »

Villa could break the top four but I'm not sure signing Heskey is the way to do it.

im not heskeys biggest fan, but we needed someone else in the carew mould

monkey9

Heskey is a brilliant player. A really good signing for Villa

JPA

Tightest poll ever!

That sounds rude. Or is that just me?

bohsman

Boggles wrote: »

I wouldn't go along with that, United are only one point worse off than they were at this stage last year. They have only conceeded 10 goals, which is remarkable considering they havn't had a settled defence.


It's business as usual TBH for united, the games they had in hand gave a untrue reflection of the league, considering they still have one in hand, calling it a disastrous start is ridiculous.

Not really having a go at United, more if anyone was having a fantastic season losing 2 games early on would have left United with a massive ask - as it is they did need to win their last 3 just to draw level.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I am looking forward to spending your money. It'll be enough for some decent splurging!!

Im actually feeling more confident about the bet now than a month ago but you can buy out for 200 if you like.

LuckyLloyd

bohsman wrote: »

Im actually feeling more confident about the bet now than a month ago but you can buy out for 200 if you like.

lolz. No thanks.

monkey9

What is the bet?? That Liverpool finish outside the top four??

bohsman

Yea, at 2/1.

LuckyLloyd

monkey9 wrote: »

What is the bet?? That Liverpool finish outside the top four??

From http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578&page=745:

belfastlad wrote: »

hopefully this can be liverpools season.

bohsman wrote: »

lol. The worst team Ive seen so far this season.

bohsman wrote: »

3 shots on target in 5 games, 3 goals, 7 points and cl qualification isnt bad I suppose but thats a Villa side that Stoke put 3 past, Liverpool will do well to finish 5th this season.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

My €3000 to your €2000 that Liverpool finish in the top four.

If they do, you pay me, if they don't I pay you.

EDIT: we can do smaller or larger if you like at that price.

bohsman wrote: »

Nothing against it in principle but I can lay them at 1/3 on betfair. And if we can come to an arangement Id be removing a 0

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Ok, I'll do €400 to €200?

bohsman wrote: »

Ok, done.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

No need to escrow imo. Consider it booked.

monkey9

Looks like you'll be losing your money then, Bohsman!

bohsman

monkey9 wrote: »

Looks like you'll be losing your money then, Bohsman!

Not if this keeps up http://www.4thegame.com/football-statistics/premiership/tables/currentform.html

Bounty Hunter

well right now the bookies have us more likely to win the title than Arsenal. So I think we might actually be favourites now for 4th spot, its mad, deserved but mad.

OPENROAD

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

well right now the bookies have us more likely to win the title than Arsenal. So I think we might actually be favourites now for 4th spot, its mad, deserved but mad.

Few days ago it was the other way around, still lots of football to be played .

Helix

OPENROAD wrote: »

Few days ago it was the other way around, still lots of football to be played .

at the end of the day, we're now in the ridiculous situation of 3rd place being villas to lose

if we beat chelsea in a couple if weeks, and then match both them and arsenal point for point for the rest of the season, we finish 3rd by my haphazard calculations

that means absolutely nothing, but it just goes to show that we've come a fair way this season

OPENROAD

Helix wrote: »

at the end of the day, we're now in the ridiculous situation of 3rd place being villas to lose

if we beat chelsea in a couple if weeks, and then match both them and arsenal point for point for the rest of the season, we finish 3rd by my haphazard calculations

that means absolutely nothing, but it just goes to show that we've come a fair way this season

I'm very cofident that we will finish in the top 4, that is not to say Villa won't also.

Bounty Hunter

I was only saying that its hard to believe Villa are now favourites for the CL spot according to some bookies im only just after accepting that a lot of fans would consider 5th dissapointing at this stage, a string of consecutive wins home and away has really made us look forward in belief that we can challenge not just Arsenal but Chelsea and Liverpool too although in reality Wigan in our next match will be tough and im just holding out hope other teams help us out like Everton tommorow or next week as Liverpool and Chelsea play each other

OPENROAD

Villa are on a great run at the moment and it looks like Heskey will be a very good buy for Villa, for us, I'm just hoping we can get a result against a very good Everton team, even if we don't though, with players due back the league will remain very tight.

homah_7ft

Yeah I'm looking forward to Carew, Bouma and Young coming back for Villa. Should be one hell of a run in.

kida

based on current form - its Utd,Villa and 2 from Pool,Arse,Chelsea and even Everton

http://www.4thegame.com/football-statistics/premiership/tables/currentform.html

1 Manchester United 6 6 0 0 12 0 12 18 W W W W W W
2 Aston Villa 6 5 1 0 9 4 5 16 W D W W W W
3 Everton 6 4 2 0 8 1 7 14 W D W W W D
4 Arsenal 6 3 3 0 9 5 4 12 D D D W W W
5 Wigan Athletic 6 4 0 2 7 3 4 12 W W W W L L
6 West Ham United 6 3 2 1 12 7 5 11 D L W W D W
7 Liverpool 6 2 4 0 12 5 7 10 D D W W D D
8 Chelsea 6 2 3 1 7 7 0 9 D D W D L W
9 West Bromwich Albion 6 3 0 3 8 10 -2 9 W L W L W L

Wreck

Ok I'm just going to come out and say it, screw the ridicule I will get. I'm starting to think that Villa, Arsenal and Man Utd will all finish top 4, and can't make up my mind whether Liverpool or Chelsea will miss out. TBH I'm leaning towards Liverpool.

LuckyLloyd

Wreck wrote: »

Ok I'm just going to come out and say it, screw the ridicule I will get. I'm starting to think that Villa, Arsenal and Man Utd will all finish top 4, and can't make up my mind whether Liverpool or Chelsea will miss out. TBH I'm leaning towards Liverpool.

You can have the same bet as Oscar?

PHB

I tell ya what, if that comes true, it will be without a doubt the post of the century.

jesus_thats_gre

PHB wrote: »

I tell ya what, if that comes true, it will be without a doubt the post of the century.

Which post? The one with Liverpool or Chelsea finishing outside of the top 4?

Wreck

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You can have the same bet as Oscar?

Nah thx, I think there are too many variables to predict this with any degree of confidence. I'm just think that if current trends/form continue, Liverpool are the team who will miss out. You could even make an arguement for Everton finishing ahead of two of the 'big four' on current form, but my feeling is they don't quite have the quality/strength to push on in the latter half of the season.

jesus_thats_gre

Wreck wrote: »

Nah thx, I think there are too many variables to predict this with any degree of confidence. I'm just think that if current trends/form continue, Liverpool are the team who will miss out. You could even make an arguement for Everton finishing ahead of two of the 'big four' on current form, but my feeling is they don't quite have the quality/strength to push on in the latter half of the season.

You sum up quite well why it is quite the statement to suggest that either Liverpool or Chelsea will finish outside the top 4.. Funnily enough, you done so in response to someone disagreeing with your prediction that one of those two would finish outside the top 4.

Bounty Hunter

well i guess this is usally posted about this time http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

the league table predictor from the BBC with 14 games remaining for most teams.

Just gave it a go myself and tried to be 100% honest i.e Villa wont win every game they should win(see today vs Wigan) and included results like a loss vs Man Utd/Chelsea or a draw at one or 2 random places like St James or COMS but still i ended up with Villa on a whopping 78pts in 4th, a whole 7 pts off 3rd and Liverpool (who we are currently level with) and only two points ahead of Uefa cup qualifiers Arsenal in 5th.

jesus_thats_gre

Feck that, would take an hour to fill out that thing.

SantryRed

Man Utd PL 37 Pts 85
Pool PL 38 Pts 79
Chelsea PL 38 Pts 78
Villa PL 38 Pts 74
Everton PL 38 Pts 69
Arsenal PL 38 Pts 65

SantryRed

Stoke, West Brom and Boro to go down too

OPENROAD

Man Utd 91 points
Chelsea 87 points
Liverpool 82 Points
Arsenal 75 points
Villa 73 points
Relegated
Newcastle
Portsmouth
Boro

Bounty Hunter

SantryRed wrote: »

Man Utd PL 37 Pts 85
Pool PL 38 Pts 79
Chelsea PL 38 Pts 78
Villa PL 38 Pts 74
Everton PL 38 Pts 69
Arsenal PL 38 Pts 65

strangley that happened with mine too think 2 rearanged fixtures arent included hense Man Utd and 3 other sides ended with 37 playes. However with regards to any potential top4 it made no difference as in mine like yours Man Utd won it anyway. But Everton getting 5th 4points ahead of Arsenal in yours now there is a surprise.

eZe^

I'd love to see Villa get a top 4 spot, it'd be good for English football in general if they broke the strangle hold that the big 4 have had on Europe the past 5 years.

jesus_thats_gre

eZe^ wrote: »

I'd love to see Villa get a top 4 spot, it'd be good for English football in general if they broke the strangle hold that the big 4 have had on Europe the past 5 years.

Hmmm it would be good if they didn't waste it like Everton done a few years back.. If they got knocked out before the group stages, it would effectively be a waste.

Bounty Hunter

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Hmmm it would be good if they didn't waste it like Everton done a few years back.. If they got knocked out before the group stages, it would effectively be a waste.

Well Villa would def invest in the squad something Everton never really did (which although it may have averted it, def was good money wise when you consider they even dropped out of the Uefa at the 1st stage), TBH not having CL football atm is one of the only things stopping us from doing so as the quality we want/need to actually improve the first XI want CL football or to be with a "big 4" team.

If we can attract them with European football, Villa are willing to spend big on players (if they are the right type of players), Spending 12m on James Milner shows this imo, i doubt any other club would have been willing to pay 12m at the time for him, but im happy that we were and think we would do it again.

Villa are ahead of schedule in terms of our development and expectations at the moment, we know this and we will be willing to improve where needed if we earn the chance at CL football.

Daemos

Villa will probably beat Arsenal to 4th place this season...

But not next. In 2005, Everton bet Liverpool to 4th, but never gathered any more momentum. Two years ago, I think, Spurs pushed Arsenal to the final day of the season, but fell at the last hurdle.

I think it will be a very long time before another team gate-crashes the Power 4 for good. I could see Man City push for it next year, and might beat Liverpool or Arsenal if they are lucky.

But, in the long run, I'd say it will be three or four years before years before the Power 4 are genuinely broken.

mike65

People forget how much money Villa could be allowed to spend. I think MON knows how to spend well, they can do it this season, in fact I think they will unless they throw it under pressure late on with UEFA Cup distractions.

PHB

The reason Everton got no momentum was because they didnt get to the group stages. Also Liverpool didn't have to totally restructure because they were still in the CL too.

Daemos

PHB wrote: »

The reason Everton got no momentum was because they didnt get to the group stages

I didn't mean they got no momentum in the Champions League, I meant that they weren't able to carry the momentum from the 2004-05 into the next, and beat Liverpool to 4th place again.

Bryan Habana

I think united, Liverpool and Chelsea are safe bets to keep their 'top 4' status. Villa have a great opportunity to break into the top 4 this year at Arsenal's expense. I still think it'll go right down to the wire though.

Mr Alan

PHB wrote: »

The reason Everton got no momentum was because they didnt get to the group stages. Also Liverpool didn't have to totally restructure because they were still in the CL too.

we wouldnt have had to "restructure" if we missed out on 1 year in the CL.

I remember Parry taking about it at the time, there is/was provisions made at that time. (i'd imagine the americans dont have the same foresight though)

YDMHSSB

ive had a rethink about villa, they have a shocking hard fixture list coming up IMO. i think yesterdays result is the beginning of a hard patch for them.

Bounty Hunter

YDMHSSB wrote: »

ive had a rethink about villa, they have a shocking hard fixture list coming up IMO. i think yesterdays result is the beginning of a hard patch for them.

that is very true and Villa fans know this, its probably the reason that although you might see Villa fans talking up the possibility of Villa getting a CL spot you dont hear anyone saying we will def get CL football.

The upcoming fixtures are why it is so important that Villa have currently got a 5pt lead on Arsenal and if its close at the end of the season the last few fixtures dont look as good for Arsenal.

Arsenal:

Chelsea
Man Utd
Stoke

Villa:

Fulham
Boro
Newcastle

Bryan Habana

Fully agree Bounty Hunter. The fixtures for March and April look very challenging (Man city, Tottenham, Liverpool, Man united and Everton in that order). If they get through that list and are still within touching distance I'd feel fairly optimistic.