When will Greystones harbour be finished?

Fiachra2

Unfortunatley it is unwise to assume that the harbour will simply be finished according the original program even though the developers website is giving no information to the contrary.

We cannot assume that the apartments will sell "like hot cakes" as an earlier post put it. If property vaule projections, such as those included in the recent Friends First Economic Outlook report are to be believed it seems fairly certain that they will sell at a much reduced price to that budgeted and that the project will then no longer be financially viable. In this scenario it is not unreasonable to speculate that the project might be abandoned by the developer at some point. This is the issue that Councillor Tom Fortune has raised. He is asking is there a "Plan B" and if so does it include leaving the harbour in a usable and scenic condition.
Regrettably the response from the Council-as quoted in the media-is less than satisfactory in this regard.

danjo

Fiachra2 wrote: »

Unfortunatley it is unwise to assume that the harbour will simply be finished according the original program even though the developers website is giving no information to the contrary.

Just wait for all the political gymnastics from the proponents as we approach the June elections. :mad:

Bart Wilson

Fiachra2 wrote: »

He is asking is there a "Plan B" and if so does it include leaving the harbour in a usable and scenic condition.

I for one will be asking Councillors Mitchell, Kelleher and Jones when they call looking for a vote what is their "Plan B" to rescue the fiasco that is the harbour. The place is now an absolute mess.

Well then Councillors what is your "Plan B" then

thecommander

Bart Wilson wrote: »

The place is now an absolute mess.

Its a building site, of course its going to be messy. What do you expect, freshly painted JCBs and sweep up team every time a tractor drives thru?

Bart Wilson

thecommander wrote: »

Its a building site, of course its going to be messy. What do you expect, freshly painted JCBs and sweep up team every time a tractor drives thru?

The question is how long will it be messy

Lets face facts folks Fiachra2 talks a lot of sense. The property bubble has burst and property prices will take at least a generation to recover. The financial projections upon which the harbour project were based were fundamentally flawed as it's projected income was based on bubble property prices which were unsustainable.:eek:

When the developers' bank eventually pulls their facility and the cash dries up what will happen to the work in progress. Will the by then liquidated limited liability company tidy the place up and dismantle their batching plant? I fear not and that we may be facing an ugly harbour eyesore for a long long time to come:(

thecommander

Bart Wilson wrote: »

When the developers' bank eventually pulls their facility and the cash dries up what will happen to the work in progress. Will the by then liquidated limited liability company tidy the place up and dismantle their batching plant? I fear not and that we may be facing an ugly harbour eyesore for a long long time to come:(

You're stating this as a fact, and have no idea where the developer is with regards to funding. Have you anything to back up that the bank will pull their funding?

DTinthegrove

fishdog wrote: »

I may be wrong, but I think the apartments will sell like hot cakes. There is still money around and they will have sea views etc.

Sorry BUT do you live on another planet. Where is this Money? Can I have some?

The bursting of the property bubble will take years to resolve, we are only at the start.

However, we don't know what profit margins these guys were working to, do we? So could it be feasible they knock 50-40% off their budgeted selling price and still make 10%-20%(For example)? If I was then then this is what I would be looking at.

Not a bad return with interest rates at close to 0%. The knock on effect for the mass of unsold property in Greystones could be fun.

Fiachra2

It seems unlikely that a significant reduction in price would be possible. The harbour works-according to WCC-were €60M. Thats about €175K per apartment that must be recouped before anyone makes any money. Bear in mind that you can now buy a new apartment in a pretty respectable part of the city for less than that. People erroneously assume that all these apartments were intended to sell for huge money. This is not corrrect. Of course the penthouses overlooking the marina would be worth a lot and might even sell today. However quite a few of them at the back were small, had no sea views-indeed no view at all-and were very close together. Even in the heady days of 2004/5/6 they wouldnt have fetched big money. So its very unlikely that a 40-50% price reduction-or anything like that-would be possible. WCC confirmed this by saying-back in 2006-that any significant reduction in the number of apartments would render the project financially unviable.

I is very possible that this part of the project is not funded by borowings. If it was I'd say they would be gone by now. SISK are an old and very profitable company and could probably fund the construction from their own resources. However that does not minimise the risk that they will look for an out and decide at some stage that they wont invest anything further and just shut down the site, at least for a few years. Much as I disliked the Marina plan I certainly dont want to look at that hoarding for any longer than is necessary. I suggest that we should refrain from either:

1.Continuing to argue over the rights and the wrongs of the project (although those of us who opposed it should remmber, at local election time, which parties -Labour and Greens-gave us support)
2.Adopting an ostrich approach and assuming everyrthing will be fine.

Rather we should pressurise our Councillors to ensure that IF the developer does pull out that the harbour will be left looking well and usable for boating and strollers. Its great to see the Tom Fortune has taken a lead on this matter.
(and yes ok I am a Labour supporter!)

pixbyjohn

Stop the idle chat on either side.
Wait and see what happens as nothing can be done on pure speculation.
Of course it will now become a political football with the upcoming local elections. And it will keep this forum alive with more scaremongering.
Live in the real world, no project of this size ever went exactly according to plan.

danjo

pixbyjohn wrote: »

Stop the idle chat on either side.
Wait and see what happens as nothing can be done on pure speculation.

I disagree with this sentiment. There are people who wait and see what happens to them and others who make things happen. I see nothing wrong in asking the Council for an update. Then action can be taken, if necessary, to avoid a disaster.

Bart Wilson

Fiachra2 wrote: »

However that does not minimise the risk that they will look for an out and decide at some stage that theyinvest anything further and just shut down the site, at least for a few years. Much as I disliked the Marina plan I certainly dont want to look at that hoarding for any longer than is necessary. I suggest that we should refrain from either:

1.Continuing to argue over the rights and the wrongs of the project (although those of us who opposed it should remmber, at local election time, which parties -Labour and Greens-gave us support)

2.Adopting an ostrich approach and assuming everyrthing will be fine.

Rather we should pressurise our Councillors to ensure that IF the developer does pull out that the harbour will be left looking well and usable for boating and strollers. Its great to see the Tom Fortune has taken a lead on this matter.
(and yes ok I am a Labour supporter!)

Wise and sobering words from Fiachra2. :eek:

This matter needs to be sorted out now - before the local elections in June. The political proponents of this development must provide the answers to this important issue. They owe it to the people of Greystones.

What is their PLAN B if the financial reality forces the developer to abondon the development?

The property market in Ireland still has a long way to fall and any recovery will be very long term. See link: Why Housing Is Not Coming Backl

thecommander

Bart Wilson wrote: »

What is their PLAN B if the financial reality forces the developer to abondon the development?:

What if terrorists attack
What if the sea drys up
What if..
What if...

Any chance of staying within facts known and not scaremongering?

loyatemu

thecommander wrote: »

What if terrorists attack
What if the sea drys up
What if..
What if...

Any chance of staying within facts known and not scaremongering?

These threads invariably deteriorate into a load of back and forth sniping. Its reasonable to ask where the money is coming from in the current climate, but if no-one has any actual information (rather than idle speculation) then I'm going to close the thread. Right now there are still workmen lowering blocks into the sea, that's all we know for certain...

Fiachra2

For what its worth I do think there will be more information available in the near future on what the outlook/options are. I think some speculation is no harm in that it gets people thinking about the possibilities. But I accept that once it gets too emotional it becomes pointless.

However hopefully we can keep the thread open until we know more.

wingding

Fiachra2 wrote: »

Thats about €175K per apartment that must be recouped before anyone makes any money. Bear in mind that you can now buy a new apartment in a pretty respectable part of the city for less than that.

less than 175k for an apartment in the city? Where the hell is that and please can i buy one.

Fiachra2

Ashtown. On the canal, beside the railway. Very nice location. €169K for a one bedroomed apt. Im afraid I cant remember the seller.

Apologies for going off topic a bit!

Bart Wilson

At a meeting during the week it was advised that the project is 5 months behind schedule.

Wicklow County Council are still to answer all the issues raised by Tom Fortune. What are they trying to hide?

Will the harbour development be completed or are the rumours that Sisk have lost interest in the project correct?

Have the council made sure they have a guarantee or bond in place with Sisk and Park Development which would prevent them from walking away from a loss making project?

The politicians who staked their political reputations on this development must now provide these and other answers. The people of Greystones have a right to know.

mikedragon32

Dressing up speculation and rumour in question form is counterproductive and likely to spur on further arguement. Unless you can post fact, supported by a link to a reputable source, please don't bother posting. It would be preferred if you can stick to the question raised in the OP.

As already pointed out, these type of threads usually descend into chaos and if this thread is to stay open, this is the way it will have to be.

Bart Wilson

Article in the Itish Times today regarding the harbour development in Greystones.

It seems that the developers are indeed concerned with the huge decline in house prices.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0505/1224245943673.html

He said this, and a €10 million builders’ bond, would ensure that the harbour with its two public slipways and maritime club houses would be completed by autumn 2010, which he said would be “only a few months late”.

He said hoardings around the south side of the harbour would likely come down then, and the 230-berth marina would be completed later, “even if the housing at the northern end is mothballed for a while”.
The council’s spokesman on the project Seán Quirke said the developers were concerned at the fall in house prices, but insisted this was not affecting their commitment.

It would seem that they are hoping for the return of the property bubble in a few years to make it viable and that they will will delay building the houses until then if necessary

In 2006 Mr Quirke said that “what has kept the scheme viable is the strong performance of the property market”. Mr Mitchell said he was confident there was always a market for houses in Greystones, and the timeframe of completion by 2013 could allow for a pause in house building if needed.

Valmont

I get the dart every morning and it seems to me like the harbour is coming along nicely, they almost have the two wall sections meeting!

thecommander

Bart Wilson wrote: »

It would seem that they are hoping for the return of the property bubble in a few years to make it viable and that they will will delay building the houses until then if necessary

The houses on the North end it says there, but everything else will be completed, if but a months behind.

What bit are you confused about?

danjo

danjo wrote: »

Just wait for all the political gymnastics from the proponents as we approach the June elections. :mad:

And so we have the first installment!
The spin in today's Times is palpable.:D

Fiachra2

Valmont wrote: »

I get the dart every morning and it seems to me like the harbour is coming along nicely, they almost have the two wall sections meeting!

If they achieve that things will get really interesting! The harbour will then be totally enclosed and no one will be able to get in or out!


To get an idea of how far progressed it is take a look at this link. (Bear in mind we are in month 19 or maybe 20 of the construction process)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm8ugyqtHxU

Going by that plan they appear to be massively behind schedule. However it is possible that they have amended their squence somwhat so it might not be as bad as this looks.

thecommander

I get a feeling that some are hoping for this to fail or fall way behind time for that "I told you so" factor, rather than getting behind it and looking forward to completetion of it.

GingerDave

I was talking with Derek Mitchell (Mayor and greystones councillor) when he knock on our door to try and get support for the up and coming elections.

I was able to ask him about this and other issues. He said a €10m bond guartantee was in place to ensure the builders couldn't walk away. He also said they were looking to up the work load during the summer to get back on track before the weather gets worse in the winter.

Fiachra2

GingerDave wrote: »

I was able to ask him about this and other issues. He said a €10m bond guartantee was in place to ensure the builders couldn't walk away. He also said they were looking to up the work load during the summer to get back on track before the weather gets worse in the winter.

This bond was mentioned in the Irish Times article referred to in an earlier post. The article raises a number of interesting issues.

Firstly it appears to be accepted -by both Council representatives quoted in the article-that the housing may not be built in the short term. This presumably implies that at present it would make no economic sense to build them. However economists now seem to hold the view (eg Friends First Quartely economic review) that the house values in 2006 were indeed a "bubble" and will never recover. If this is correct then the housing may never be built. Not at all a bad outcome for those of us who opposed the housing element of the project but a significant financial problem for the developers.

Secondly the bond itself of €10M. The problem with this is that the marine works are costed at €60M+. The works are certainly no where near 5/6ths complete so the bond, in value terms, is inadequate to ensure completion. In addition I understand that bonds are often quite complex and can be conmstructed so that they may only be drawn down in certain circumstances.

So this article confirms that, as a community, we may well have a problem. Plan A (the construction of a harbour and apartments to fund it) is probabably not going to happen. We dont know what plan B is but we need to insist that plan B includes the removal of hoardings and getting our (now larger) harbour and beach back.

pixbyjohn

Lots of activity in the harbour today

Bart Wilson

Updated message from Tom Fortune regarding the Greystones Harbour PPP....

The Marina project, which was opposed by the vast majority of Greystones residents, received planning permission in August 2007 and construction began in November of that year. But what is now exercising everyone’s mind is the question of whether the project will ever be finished.

The collapse of the housing market has raised a big question mark over the viability of the project. The €300 million development was to be financed entirely from the sale of 340 apartments which were to be built on the North Beach area. However, as we all know, it is currently almost impossible to sell apartments and experts appear to be agreed that when the housing market does recover, prices will have collapsed, possibly to about half their level in 2006 when this development was planned. Naturally we are all concerned to as to how the project will be financed under these circumstances. Equally we are worried about the risk that the contractor will be forced to abandon the work and leave Greystones with the huge eyesore of a partially completed building site.

I have written to the management of Wicklow County Council on three occasions, seeking information on what contingency plans are in place in the light of changing economic circumstances. I have yet to receive a satisfactory response to this question.

Work on the harbour continues and the contractor remains committed to the project however I am personally alarmed at the inability of Wicklow County Council to explain how the project will now be financed. I will continue to press on your behalf for answers on this matter and will keep you informed.

I was myself completely opposed to a development of this scale and believe it is disgraceful that the wishes of a community should be ignored this way by the local authority and by the planning process. I will continue to work to try and ensure that, if the project must be abandoned or postponed, the harbour and north beach are returned to the people of Greystones.

mikedragon32

Bart, I have asked several times to post fact, backed up with sources and links and again, all I'm getting is opinion and conjecture and by the looks of it a party political broadcast.

This is not the Politics forum.

Thread locked, that post is pure flame bait.