Model Output Thread - Into February and Possible Cold Spell

j1979p

Mods: please feel free to change the name of this thread or move it to different thread (I dont know where to post anymore)

According to latest GFS, this time next week will be the beginnning of a strong easterly airflow over northern Europe extending into Ireland and lasting a few days. Definitely looks cold and high possibility of snow even though it is FI stuff

Villain

FI is showing the best charts I have EVER seen but it is FI so if you look prepare for huge downgrades

Redsunset

Whereas the FI of the 00z sticks a useless high over us that sinks slowly into Europe.
All you'd get out of that is a few frosty/very frosty spells.

It's the reason I don't depend on either the eye candy in FI or the gouge your eyes out stuff thats in it.

Katy Perry has a lovely song about the GFS at the moment [It's up and it's down...it's yes and it's no,it's black and it's white... in and it's out...it's hot and it's cold.... lol]

http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=y-LhyAVzDBI

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

Whereas the FI of the 00z sticks a useless high over us that sinks slowly into Europe.
All you'd get out of that is a few frosty/very frosty spells.

It's the reason I don't depend on either the eye candy in FI or the gouge your eyes out stuff thats in it.

Katy Perry has a lovely song about the GFS at the moment [It's up and it's down...it's yes and it's no,it's black and it's white... in and it's out...it's hot and it's cold.... lol]

http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=y-LhyAVzDBI

lol @ kate perry link
Well if february is half as cold as January was/is then il be happy, we have had a good wintry weather since 26 of december in my opinion, sure we have had a few warm days in between ,but overall its been a great month, and in Letterkenny I witnessed a blizzard ,with 7 inches of snow! , even was 10 inches/1 foot through the hills to letterkenny!

darkman2

Obviously looking further then 144hrs is really dealing in the realms of speculation at best.

But this is not bad...not bad at all from 168hrs onwards

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Obviously looking further then 144hrs is really dealing in the realms of speculation at best.

But this is not bad...not bad at all from 168hrs onwards

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

Beautifull.

However do you notice something intensely strange about it?
That low pressure to the west of us moving due north.
It heads all the way up to the NE of Greenland.

That just doesn't look right.

Supercell

Very little agreement past 29th - http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png
I wouldnt be pinning much on anything past that tbh.

I wouldnt be too worried about the GFS ensembles when it's a possible Easterly SC.

It's the debilt ECM ones,I'd be looking at.

That said if we see tonights ECM next thursday for example being shown for the following thursday instead of next sunday,it's curtains.

Supercell

Yep true enough, at this time of the year i'd be more surprised if FI didnt show easterlies than not tbh, but one day it'll happen for sure, the ECM is usually first to sniff them out, will be interesting to watch.

ninebeanrows

Very nice UKM and ECM this evening.

GFS not in tune.

Interesting to see runs in the maidin!

Chance of something special is getting a little more likely by the day now.

And remember that this year is different.

darkman2

Stick with the Euro's for now.;) Cold spell or no cold spell the GFS is a bit of a mess atm and the difference at 120hrs with each run means that it has not got a grip whereas the UKMO and ECM seem rather similar and in tune. Fingers crossed for better tomorrow. We are in with a shout - but no more then that.

forkassed

00z gfs comes back on board with an easterly setting in at t+144 which eventually brings -10 850's getting into ireland by t180.

Waiting to see what ukmet & ecm show this morning...hopefully they keep their trends from yesterday and we'll have the 3 main models on board with a cold spell beginning at the weekend.

One important caveat.
You do need cold surface air advection in an Easterly for to get your classic set up.
That compensates for fluctuations in the 850 temps eg that they are -5c one day and -10 the next followed by -6c etc.
Those 850's should that type of cold upper air reach us will fluctuate more here on the fringe than it will in Europe on the land mass.

Europe will need a week to get as cold as it did a few weeks back.

Moscow and prague are 2 examples of how warmed up the far east of Europe has gone.
They are ranging around -2c to 0c in forecast this week min to max but the night time mins do lower considerably by the end of the week.

Now question is-If we see an Easterly after next weekend is it going to last more than a week?
History tells me,the odds are stacked against that.
We dont want a "nearly" event.We want an event.

The Brussells forecast for friday is appalling in terms of cold,it's a max of 7c so that gives you an idea of the uphill task ahead upstream in any easterly.

Berlin is a tad better for friday but still above freezing with it's max.
For proper cold advection,you need sub zero surface air maxes in the UK and at least -5c max surface temps in the near continent.

So keep watching them at during and after next weekend if the ECM is still programming an Easterly because without that Easterly coming off a very cold continent-we're wasting our time on another "nearly" event.

darkman2

Good ECM, Good UKMO, 6z GFS meh exceptable.


Hopefully we see a continuation of the trend. Oh and the UK met has jump on the bandwagon too:)

darkman2

12z GFS looking good. Just 120hrs out is this chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Trigger low in place to the south. Loop jet developing.

Yup it sure is good to see those trends.
Bit far out yet of course but confidence in all corners in the aul ECM is good at the moment so fingers crossed it makes it into the reliable.

Fingers crossed too that we do get a scandi thats around long enough to advect true siberian air as far west as us.

Otherwise we'll be looking at a sleety event and driven mad by the snow ploughs in kent [and annamoe ].

ninebeanrows

It would be nice to see a broader cold pool move southwestwards. At the moment we are just getting a small wedge, be it brining 850hpas to -8c i think its time we heightened our expectations.

The way i see things turning out is that we get a weak easterly flow from day 7, a small breakdown, a Greenland high building strongly towards day 10 and a bitter north northeasterly developing.

That is unless we see big changes around the 120hr mark with regard to cold pool movement and shortwave intensity.

Things looking good but we want amazing, because this winter and the coming month has all the ingredients to be amazing rather than just a mushy bit of snow cold spell.

200motels

Looking at the latest models it looks promising but I just can't see it coming off, being let down too often by models, I hope it's a snow-fest but doubt it.

j1979p

06z GFS showing the easterly starting around sunday. Let's hope there's only upgrades from now on!

Yes creeping closer to the reliable.
Thing about the reliable timeframe though is that you still have to look outside of it for clues to possibly what might happen next and take those clues with a pinch of salt and hope.They're far from guaranteed meaning if an Easterly sets itself up - you really cant be sure for how long and where the wind will veer next.

If it's a Northeasterly,that would be nice for 2 reasons-increasingly negative dewpoint air and distrbances moving down from the NorthEast.

If it morphs into a northwesterly-thanks to a stand up straight high pressure system in the atlantic [as opposed to a perfectly positioned one leaning NE to allow a NE flow] then you'll have too much maratime atlantic air in the mix and a big disappointment.

All eyes on the ECM later and see if something like it's previous t240 becomes it's t168.I'm not too pushed with the GFS really at the moment.
If theres an Easterly come monday,I'll be paying more attention to the t96 gfs as that will bring us out to the following friday during what hopefully will be by then a wintry spell and should give us a bit more than hope to shore up what we might be see'ing in the more reliable ecm by then.

Redsunset

thats only the teaser.the main event wont happen till mid feb onward.if you follow the strat warming thread you'll see that its still only progress in motion.looking forward to output models mid feb.but yes seems to be a finger of easterly bringing wintry mix shortly.that said we all know our model friend to be like a woman tryin to find something to wear .

nacho libre

yes, the charts for 10 days time are simply delicious but of course you can be 95 per cent certain they will be downgraded closer to the time.

j1979p

12z still looking good. Let's hope the 18z does too and then that's at least 3 in a row (didn't see the other ones)

Supercell

Very cautious forecast after the news tonight on RTE. Basically said they don't know what's happening after Saturday. Could go either way was the implication, interesting stuff.

j1979p

For me, 18z a bit of a downgrade. We'll still be getting cold easterlies but high pressure a little too close for any precipitation whereas before there was plenty of potential). Hopefully this potential will come back on the next run. Looks to get very cold by early next week

Redsunset

HA HA HA HA. oh dear the forecasters seems to be in turmoil bout whats really around the corner.the models don't know whether their comin or going.tis great fun this.im having a blast(AN ARCTIC BLAST):D:D

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1087.png


Hmmmm

Interesting.

ninebeanrows

We've just hit upgrade territory!

A beauty of a chart:D

Not a mammoth easterly but one we would all be satisfied with especially with the propects of further cold down the line :D

arctictree

To be honest, those latest GFS charts are spectacular. t150+ is looking really good too.

I wonder though, is it still too early to call this? The proper easterly sets up at t+96. Is that still too far out to be reliable??

A

ninebeanrows

arctictree wrote: »

To be honest, those latest GFS charts are spectacular. t150+ is looking really good too.

I wonder though, is it still too early to call this? The proper easterly sets up at t+96. Is that still too far out to be reliable??

A

Yep with this type of scenario it is, it looks like we will get an easterly of sorts but to say we will get an Easterly with -10c 850hpa is risky at this point even with support from all models now.

Bearing in mind that i think the UKM would be a colder run than the GFS:D

The great thing is that even after this heights are rising over Greeny and Arctic high is heading south. It could be dreamy.