Model Output Thread - Into February and Possible Cold Spell

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

It could be dreamy.

Lol indeed it could...

/ awaits ramp of a thread by yourself... hopefully not till saturday as it might jinx this...

Meanwhile the UKMO latest update is fantastic.The only thing they have low confidence in is the distribution and amount of snow right through next week :eek::):eek:

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder though, is it still too early to call this? The proper easterly sets up at t+96. Is that still too far out to be reliable??

A

The only thing stopping me calling this is that I might jinx it.

Rob McElwee on the BBC is calling it though.
All we need now is Eveyln to do the farming forecast on Sunday.

Back in the 80's when things werent as sophisticated,spells like this [that looked like starting on the sunday or monday] were called on the wenesday lunchtime forecast on BBC one.


Lots of snow still on the top of lugnaquilla by the way-it looks chunky!

For Wicklow,wexford and East Carlow,East Kilkenny by the Way when the wind is North of East it is fantastic as it maximises the Irish sea fetch for showers.

darkman2

The charts looking rather ominous. It looks fairly nailed at this stage but the little details will have to wait. My thoughts are turning to not 'if' but for how long it lasts. The good news is that the cold pool which we could tap is gradually expanding and actually getting colder with each run....so don't rule out the possibility of getting those -15's here just yet. After this blast my focus is on whether we can tap a Northeasterly. But that's further on. For now things looking good indeed.:)


Not going into too much detail about it just yet.

Just seen the BBC one Lunchtime forecast with Thomas Shaffenacker [phoenetical spelling ]

It's coming

deromalley

Can anyone tell me why you all put the weather on this website??

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Just seen the BBC one Lunchtime forecast with Thomas Shaffenacker [phoenetical spelling ]

It's coming

Might aswell put the charts up for the time frame in question. It's Sunday onward really so we are close enough. It's going to turn much colder with snow likely.

DOCARCH

Charts looking lovely!

deromalley wrote: »

Can anyone tell me why you all put the weather on this website??

? ? Maybe beacuse it's the weather forum?

Gonzo

fingers crossed this will work, so far we've been short-changed here in the east compared to our friends in the west this winter. please let these easterlys deliver more widespread snow than we can shove a snowplough at:)

Supercell

Chart looking great and not in FI,lets hope we don't have another meandering sinking high like earlier...
This one looks far better, some of the gfs scenarios would surely dump snow on the east coast right down to sea level with 850's in the -10°C range if it comes off like it looks this evening.
As long as its all gone by Febuaruy 9th ..let it snow..let it snow..let it snow lalalal

opr

If my hopes get dashed again i am finished with this forum

Opr

j1979p

Just keeps getting better on GFS! I would say snow predicted sun night/early mon morning. Mid week seems to warm up slightly but have a look at the charts again for next weekend!

Strong northerlys! We're getting it from all angles now

I hope this doesn't jinx it

darkman2

Supercell are your supply's ready?:pac:

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

Supercell are our supply's ready?:pac:

Omg :eek:, if that comes off..time to stock up on beans, firefood and gas...ohh wait :pac::pac::D

darkman2

UKMO 144 :pac:




Better get those shovels out.


EDIT "our" supplies....sorry I meant to say "your" supplies - I think we will have enough snow down here, no need to go near Wicklow on Monday me thinks

ninebeanrows

What amazing charts, unreal.

UKM corking, a prolonged freeze possible.

The short term cold spell being firmed up on, sub -10c 850hpa air.

Could we be heading for the real deal?

February could be it.

darkman2

Time for a dedicated thread tbh. This could be disruptive certainly on Monday for the East. Whatever about after that.:)

jambofc

is this REALLY going to happen???
haveing only found this site this winter ive been up and down like a yo yo,tiz gonna snow no it isnt
please say this is for real and to make things better im off next week
let it snow bucket loads of white fluffy flakes
when do you all think these charts will become more reliable?

jambofc

jambofc wrote: »

is this REALLY going to happen???
haveing only found this site this winter ive been up and down like a yo yo,tiz gonna snow no it isnt
please say this is for real and to make things better im off next week
let it snow bucket loads of white fluffy flakes
when do you all think these charts will become more reliable?

Where are you located?
Theres a pretty to very good chance especially in Leinster,East Munster and to a lesser extent East Ulster.
It looks like it will be cold enough from sunday night and definitely monday for at least snow flurries along the East coast and perhaps something a lot more substantial

I hope I havent jinxed this.

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

Where are you located?
Theres a pretty to very good chance especially in Leinster,East Munster and to a lesser extent East Ulster.
It looks like it will be cold enough from sunday night and definitely monday for at least snow flurries along the East coast and perhaps something a lot more substantial

I hope I havent jinxed this.

I think that its important for our less regular visitors here to understand that while the potential is there that maybe 49/50 times that all we can expect is exactly as BB has predicted above.

This being the weather forum, many of us can see the potential in the charts..i.e. what the worst (or best case scenario is depending on your view point ) could happen from the charts remember guys this is FAR from nailed on - http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

I would humbly ask for there to be no silly rampcasts until we are at least at T+72 unless there is VERY strong evidence of omegas or other such "dreamy" stuff :P:pac:

jambofc

Deleted User wrote: »

Where are you located?
Theres a pretty to very good chance especially in Leinster,East Munster and to a lesser extent East Ulster.
It looks like it will be cold enough from sunday night and definitely monday for at least snow flurries along the East coast and perhaps something a lot more substantial

I hope I havent jinxed this.

based in trim co meath,have missed all the snow events here this year,even tho 20 miles up the road schools were closed the snow was that heavy in our recent cold snap :eek:

200motels

What do the experts think of these charts?

I'd make two important points ,actually three about that GFS ensemble Supercell.

1. it's GFS so forget about the details beyond Tuesday
2.This is a continental feed so 850 temps of around -7c or lower could do the business.
3.Being a continental feed,it will have or should have negative dewpoints which is the thing that compensates for any higher 850 temps that appear.


I hope I havent jinxed this.

Tonights ECM is fracking fantastic...

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

And just for fun the 144 [though I'd be more hopefull on an ecm 144 than any other model]

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Basically the Easterly in those veers northeasterly and drags in or should drag in continiously negative dewpoints and precipitation

I hope I havent jinxed this

Supercell

Ohh, those are..very promising charts!!, starting to look like the real deal this time.

Eveyln wasnt very inspiring though just now.
I was surprised. 5 to 7c on monday? That would be the same as today really or not much different-that cant be right.

Lets not get carried away just yet.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

darkman2

ECM delays the real cold by a day and precipitation would be more limited but it's better then the last run. Need to check the upper temps before coming to a conclusion on it.

forkassed

Deleted User wrote: »

Eveyln wasnt very inspiring though just now.
I was surprised. 5 to 7c on monday? That would be the same as today really or not much different-that cant be right.

Lets not get carried away just yet.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

She mentioned it getting colder for next week, thats about all i would expect from our met tbh.

As long as we dont get our usual dose of downgrades we are looking good.:)

Gonzo

yes that rte forecast didnt inspire much confidence, they were reporting a dry easterly with high pressure coming from the north cutting off shower activity with only cool temperatures around 5/6C.

arctictree

TBH, I think Evelyn's forecast was very normal for the Irish met.

What is forecast for next Monday is still quite far off and they can just see that its going to get colder. They don't really know how cold yet. No point in causing unrest amongst the masses!!

And yes, the charts look great but we'll know more in a day or two.

Martron

i am far from an expert on this and i find myself coming in here than logging on to irish met.

again hooked on this thread

I BELIEVE

come on snow.

i would settle for an weather that prevents me going to work.