Model Output Thread - Into February and Possible Cold Spell

Takeshi_Kovacs

So if this comes off, is there much chance of us poor folks down here in Kerry getting some sneachta, or is more confined to easterly areas?

Sierra Oscar

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

So if this comes off, is there much chance of us poor folks down here in Kerry getting some sneachta, or is more confined to easterly areas?

And to add to this, what should those of us in the midlands expect if it does occur?

j1979p

j1979p wrote: »

Just keeps getting better on GFS! I would say snow predicted sun night/early mon morning. Mid week seems to warm up slightly but have a look at the charts again for next weekend!

Strong northerlys! We're getting it from all angles now

I hope this doesn't jinx it

I like the way GFS is being reasonably consistent with regards to the cold spells now. 18z still showing the easterly not far away and still showing deep north-north easterlies for next weekend

forkassed

This looks nice....






850hpa temp ensembles




UKMO 6-15 day forecast

There is now reasonable confidence for a colder easterly regime to have become established by the start of this forecast period. It will probably be mostly dry at first with overnight frost and some patches of fog in western parts, perhaps also some snow flurries in eastern areas. As we go through the first week though, there looks to be an increasing risk of some wintry precipitation at times, this most likely near the east coast. Longer term, through the week-end and into the following week, indications are that the cold or rather cold weather may persist along with the risk of some snow at times. Confidence in the amount and distribution of any snow is low however at this stage.

MUSEIST

forkassed wrote: »

This looks nice....

Thats the most beautiful thing I have seen

80's style- only a week away -this cold spell looks like it could POTENTIALLY be the best we have seen in a while.:D:D:D:D

Redsunset

"Down with that sort of thing,careful now".yeah just saw evelyn there now too.how dare she say dry and cold.pray for the precip folks.hopefully it'll be met eireann upgrading in couple of days

The UKMO fax charts have troughs moving in from the Irish sea in 528 and less dam air which looks like -10 850's on monday.
Shur that would have to be snow and with pressure as low as 1012-it could snow anywhere and I mean anywhere but heaviest along the eastern coridoor.

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVO89.png

I hope I haven't jinxed this.

Scubadevils

Hmm, and I'm on a 6.30am-ish flight to Heathrow on Monday morning!

Wibbler

MUSEIST wrote: »

80's style- only a week away -this cold spell looks like it could POTENTIALLY be the best we have seen in a while.:D:D:D:D

I'm up late(ish), thanks to the effects of 'man flu' and I've been distracting myself with the ramping.

To plays devil's advocate:

Come on chaps, haven't we been here before? What makes this event any more likely to come off than the countless others we've seen in the charts in the last few years?

A touch downbeat, perhaps, but the last time I experienced a noteworthy snow event in Dublin was 2001 and I can't remember the last one before that. I have seen plenty of ramp worthy eye-candy on the charts in the last few years, but the reality has always been a disappointment.

On the other hand, now could be our time. ;-)

Redsunset

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 28

ANOTHER HARSH BLOW FROM WINTER COLD COMING TO EUROPE!
The major blocking developing over the Northern Hemisphere means another round of severe cold is going to engulf Europe. The current pattern of storms, and milder weather, will break to a much colder pattern as the block backs west and arctic air comes south into Scandinavia and then spreads out. This will make this the coldest winter for Europe as a whole in years.
This time, if one wants to find fault, it may be that I was slow in the cold coming. While I believe the worst of the cold is probably a couple of weeks away, the development of the much colder pattern will be in full swing next week. So while the coldest may be two to three weeks away, the turn to colder is coming quicker.
I am hopeful that such sharp reminders of the cold will encourage the populace not to accept without question the idea that our planet has a global crisis caused by warming, and instead arm themselves with knowledge from all sources, including... and this is radical, the actual weather. My opinion of course is that this is just the start of what will become a more frequent occurrence in 10-20 years and beyond, and I am open about that, but I do understand as finite being dealing with the infinite I could be wrong. Moral is, look for yourself, and I am confident you will see the reason for the skepticism in many of us. I think that is what weather like what is coming can help us with, if we are open-minded.
Open minds, warm hearts, and plenty of warm clothes is what is needed in the upcoming few weeks for most of Europe.
I am not monitoring forecast ideas, but it will be interesting to see if various euro government agencies are as hyped up about the coming cold as I am. This looks formidable, at least in my book.
Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.
TUESDAY, JAN. 27
WE AREN'T IN KANSAS ANYMORE, TOTO - DOROTHY FROM THE WIZARD OF OZ (PARAPHRASED).
In the Wizard-of-Oz world that climate forecasting has become, let this dose of reality set in... another period of severe cold is brewing. The major stratospheric warming event going on now and the blocking that is locking in will back west, and this will allow the Scandinavian trough to start doing its dirty work. The moral is that February may contain a 10- to 20-day cold period in the continent that rivals the severe cold that we saw in late December into early January. This is not a forecast for tomorrow, okay, just a heads up on two to three weeks away.
If you have friends in the UKRAINE, tell them to make sure their agreements with Russia are all in order.
Heck of a way to run a global warmup... oh, that's right, when it's cold, it's climate change. Ciao for now. *****
this is from joe bastardi.sounds great to me,:D

Redsunset

polar vortices split to bits folks.break open the babysham:pac:

Redsunset

could be ARMAGEDDEN if it fell this way.:eek: