Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

Pangea

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/posts/view/67910/Frozen-February/
lol @ “The cold spell is due to last for another fortnight and probably even for a month.”

ninebeanrows

What the hells happened you overnight BB?

Too warm for snow, yea right, maybe turning marginal towards late Tuesday but thats when a chance of right dumping arises.

The charts are sensational again today with the GFS still off the ball with the ECM and UKM.

JanuarySnowstor

We are now almost certain to get a 'close down' type weather event come Mon / Tues.
I dunno what maps some of ye guys are looking at but as WC mentions this is not marginal until Wed if at all
Expect heavy snow for all areas but in particular the South and East with several inches of lying snow by Tues morning

Bear in mind the Irish Met said cold and sunny 2 nights ago and last night they tried to backtrack but instead of warning us about Monday they prefered to tell us what would happen by Thurs. V poor imo

Of course I could be wrong and they could be right but i doubt it:D

ninebeanrows

MetO releases warnings now.

None for NI but i think we could transfer the warning for Louth, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow,Wexford, Waterford etc

There is a High Risk of a Severe Weather event affecting much of England and Wales during Monday and Tuesday. Periods of snow will continue to extend westwards through Monday, with heavy falls likely in places. Although marked variations will occur from place to place, 5-10cm likely locally with as much as 10-20cm possible, especially over higher ground. Drifting will occur in fresh to strong easterly winds. During Tuesday, snow is likely to turn to rain from the east, except over higher ground. This could cause disruption to travel networks, especially across higher level routes.

Issued at: 1110 Sat 31 Jan

Supercell

Charge those camera batteries folks, we need piccys in the weather pictures sub forum!!
You'll want to record this one for posterity, might be a while before we get a chance at something similar again!!

Pangea

Supercell wrote: »

Charge those camera batteries folks, we need piccys in the weather pictures sub forum!!
You'll want to record this one for posterity, might be a while before we get a chance at something similar again!!

lol thanks for the reminder, My camera actually needs new rechargable batteries

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

What the hells happened you overnight BB?

Too warm for snow, yea right, maybe turning marginal towards late Tuesday but thats when a chance of right dumping arises.

hehe
Just reporting what Glasnevin have been saying and whats on the news 24 graphics.

As for my own opinion,All I'm concerned about now is how many hours it will be snowing for untill it sticks on this very very wet ground.

I do think that when and if the uppers get to -5c,it's curtains for snow on the coast and probably anywhere thats not near or on high ground.But lets play that by ear.If we get more stunning ECMWF output,it's all good in the hood.

Ironically by the end of the week,the south could do better out of this than the East.

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

This thread has got over 1000 views in the past 2 hours :eek:

no pressure lads


the ground is gonna be wet for this event - will it be frozen by the time the first snow arrives?

tony1212

ok guys im confused, is it gona snow, or is it not, and are we going to get any of it in limerick, thanks again

nacho libre

tony1212 wrote: »

ok guys im confused, is it gona snow, or is it not, and are we going to get any of it in limerick, thanks again

if the air, when it swings around to north east, is sourced from siberia, rather than just being dry continental air, by Thursday then places like Limerick could see some snow

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

no pressure lads


the ground is gonna be wet for this event - will it be frozen by the time the first snow arrives?

Weather will start getting colder from tonight but the first snow showers probably won't be until late Sunday/ early Monday.

jay28

Ive been following this thread for the past couple of days, I'm living in Avoca.......So so it better snow!!!!

j1979p

According to 06z GFS, the blast of northerlies predicted for thursday is gone :eek:

Let's hope it's just an outlier cos all the other runs were predicting it

maquiladora

Weather Warning

Issued at 31 January 2009 - 13:29

Weather Advisory

Wintry showers between Sunday night and Tuesday will lead to some snow accumulations over the eastern half of the country.


http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

jay28

jay28 wrote: »

Ive been following this thread for the past couple of days, I'm living in Avoca.......So so it better snow!!!!

It will.
But there'll be a lot more in rathdrum.More still in the likes of bally coogue across to Aughrim/Annacurra and more still higher up.

I'm expecting snow to settle for a while even in Arklow and you are 5 miles inland from there closer to high ground.
The caveat on that is,that the area finds itself under an irish sea shower train.If it misses one then it's bad luck some one else up or down the coast will be getting it.

By the way jay28-if you live in or around conary/near the motee stone rather than in avoca village,you could in theory see snow all week and some impressive totals because you would be above or around 600ft or so there.

jay28

well im 3 miles from Avoca on higher ground up in Conary, we usually get the same amount as Rathdrum.............Fingers crossed

Ha! stock up on the provisions then up in conary Thats a beautifull area and in prime position for the precip to stay as snow if it turns to sleet further down!

squonk

Haven't had a chance to follow this all properly because of work. What are things looking like for Eastern costal areas? I'm not holding my breath really!!

Getting a bit imby now but jay28 will you keep an eye on this forum from sunday night and through next week and let us know how the snow is going for you and post pictures if you can!
Potentially Tuesday there you could have a lot of snow.

j1979p

What times are the GFS results generally published? Is it always the same times every day?

patneve

j1979p wrote: »

What times are the GFS results generally published? Is it always the same times every day?

yep. the 12z should start rolling out at about 3:30 if im not mistaken!;)

jay28

Deleted User wrote: »

Getting a bit imby now but jay28 will you keep an eye on this forum from sunday night and through next week and let us know how the snow is going for you and post pictures if you can!
Potentially Tuesday there you could have a lot of snow.

Yeah ill do that no problem......should be able to get a few nice pictures overlooking Rathdrum.......:)

squonk

squonk wrote: »

Haven't had a chance to follow this all properly because of work. What are things looking like for Eastern costal areas? I'm not holding my breath really!!

Well in summary Met Eireann have been very slow to get on the snow train but they will and are doing so.
The reason I think for their slowness in doing this has been the fact that they want to firm up on the details before publishing too many warnings.
Remember what we are about to see is very very rare in Ireland.

That means they have little local experience to go on so their "forecaster input" into the data-thats where they interpret the data and generate the forecasts is in the case of snow almost an unknown to them.

Their data is telling them it could snow but common sense is telling them,that it is so rare,they will wait untill the last minute before risking being wrong.

They've had egg on their faces in the recent past when they have called snow events and it didnt happen.

I think the two events that come to mind though were much more marginal than this one so they've little to be worrying about - initially anyway.

Regarding the bigger picture-Cross your fingers toes and everything else that you have that tonights ECM is similar to last nights

squonk

Thanks BB! Here's hoping for some sneachta so!

Iancar29

WOO! I cant believe they are actually saying snow or the east of the country! ..:D:D

HOPE THERES A BLIZZARD IN DUBLIN!

Shall be in the weather department in college (UCD) all day monday just watchin and waiting! ha :rolleyes:

MUSEIST

03:30 - 04:45 GFS 00z
06:00 ECM 00z
06:30 NOGAPS 00z
06:30 UKMO 00z
09:30 - 10:45 GFS 06z
10:30 FAX 00z
15:30 - 16:45 GFS 12z
17:30 UKMO 12z
18:00 ECM 12z
18:30 NOGAPS 12z
19:00 JMA 12z
21:30 - 22:45 GFS 18z
22:30 FAX 12z

Just for anybody who wants to start model watching ahead of the possible cold spell.

lucernarian

Christ, I really missed in the 5 or so days that I haven't been on this forum...

:pac:


Could anyone give me a brief summary of any potential snowy situations for either Dublin or Louth over the next week?? NIMBYism at its finest lol. A repeat of 4th January 08 would do quite nicely:D Convergence zones anyone???

Pangea

Im expecting nothing here in donegal , who knows

Doyler1981

Love reading this Forum, the excitement! Nice to see there are lots of snow lovers like me! Is it likely that the snow will make it as far as Kilcock in Kildare?