Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

SpitfireIV

God damn it! I swore after the last time.......and the time before, and the winter before that I'd give up coming in here! I figured that I had all the best snowfalls before I was aware of Boards so if I figured if I stopped coming here I'd get some snow again!

Anyway, I see the east and south coast mentioned as being in the (snowball) firing line, if this thing does come off how far inland are we expecting the white stuff to reach? I know its impossible to forecast, but generally where can you draw the line? Carlow's in with a good chance, right??

By the way, I think they should get Mr Freeze to do the forecasts for RTE he'd make them a whole lot more interesting!! :D:p

Heres the forecast for next week, just been released!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNaDZIrxh-0

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Christ, I really missed in the 5 or so days that I haven't been on this forum...

:pac:


Could anyone give me a brief summary of any potential snowy situations for either Dublin or Louth over the next week?? NIMBYism at its finest lol. A repeat of 4th January 08 would do quite nicely:D Convergence zones anyone???

Chances are good.
The flow is slightly north of East or ENE so I'm hoping places like Wicklow,wexford and waterford will meet the shower trains.

@ doyler1981 - yes theres no reason why you shouldnt see snow over the coming days.


I'm not guarantee'ing anyone snow by answering these questions but I am saying that places like Kildare are East enough to get touched by the irish sea showers.
Where they will develop is the 64,000 dollar question.
From late tomorrow night that will be a nowcast.
On Tuesday with more extensive stuff moving in off the Irish sea then inland counties of the East are in business.

I still think snow on tuesday for most even on the coast but to be brutally honest I wouldnt say for definite untill I see the dewpoints with regard to coastal snow on that day.


The important thing is that as many people in as wide an area as possible report whats happening from late sunday right through to wenesday morning.
I'm sure there will be plenty of comment given on what you post.
Oh and folks could you make sure your location is in your profile if it's not already.
Dont just put Dublin if you are in dublin-put the area eg skerries or dalkey etc
If you are in a county put in what part of the county,put in whether south of the county ,north east or west of the county and the nearest town eg near Gorey or near Navan or something like that.
It will all help.

You can put your location in by clicking on your user cp-go into your profile and enter the location details.
When you save that,it will appear beside your post each time you post here and will be handy for those reading!

Trotter

As of now, 3:30pm on Saturday, what should the weather newbie be looking out for or hoping for in the charts? Does anyone have specific URLs to the charts that are most important?

lucernarian

From what I can tell so far, Monday looks full of regular but mild snow showers for the east coast, with some more prolonged spells of snow before turning to sleet and rain at lower levels on Tuesday night. Showery cold weather to follow for the rest of the week?

Doyler1981

Thanks BB, fingers crossed! I'll be glued to this for the next few days.

leahyl

from reading this i haven't heard much mention of cork but is there any chance we could get some of the white stuff down here?!:)

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

From what I can tell so far, Monday looks full of regular but mild snow showers for the east coast, with some more prolonged spells of snow before turning to sleet and rain at lower levels on Tuesday night. Showery cold weather to follow for the rest of the week?

Thats one interpretation BUT watch the ecmwf tonight,it's much more bullish or has been at maintaining the cold into the rest of the week.
If that changes it's curtains for now.
Also the GFS has been all over the place so I wouldnt look at what it says for wenesday as cast in stone untill tuesday really.

Cork? Snow?
Hell yeah! probably not untill tuesday though-if all goes well.

12z GFS is rolling out and it seems to be dragging the low more south-that is good I think though I cant tell as it's so early in the frame.
Wont be near a pc now for a few hours so hopefully WC will be in with the news in a bit.

patneve

GFS 12Z starting to roll in...

36 hrs:

patneve

precipitation pretty much the same at 42 hrs:

ninebeanrows

I think Sunday night / Monday are the best synoptics and chance for powder snow on the east coast for a decade.

Heavy precip by dawn Monday

patneve

48 hrs precipitation looks real good (between 2 and 5 mm on E coast) - upper temps good too

lucernarian

The cold air pool and its dewpoints are slightly worse on this run, but precipitation seems to be better for Monday so far. Better for a snowy Monday morning shock:D

ninebeanrows

GFS still very different to the Euro Models at T50hrs

With the low much further north than the UKM and ECM progg.

patneve

this is where it starts to get marginal - snow might turn to sleet below 100-200 metres....could fall on all levels-depends on the dew point---prec excllent although

lucernarian

Slightly further north than the 06z run indeed! Very odd, and I'm somewhat worried at its implications. The cold air pool is also currently over closely monitored atmosphere, but I won't judge until I see the ECMWF and UKMO 12z output.

ninebeanrows

So GFS looking like Heavy powder snow showers in the east from Sunday night to Monday night.

Then the low pushes in with persistent heavy precip. GFS proggs it turning to sleet especially along the coast, although its heavy and may not, then the cold wrap around will turn it back to snow.

Seen as conditions don't actually get that warm with 850hpa briefly touching -4c and the liklyhood of lying snow even the thaw won't be great even at the coast. And the Wicklow Mountains and any High ground looks like getting absolutely plastered.

patneve

judging by the latest outputs the east coast could get a good few snow showers throughout monday...then when that low comes over from britain with more widespread precipitation the whole isle could see something but it might only fall as sleet on lower ground...depends on dewpoints! i cant wait:D

ninebeanrows

Remember GFS has been out of sync of late so don't pay too much attention to it

patneve

Weathercheck wrote: »

So GFS looking like Heavy powder snow showers in the east from Sunday night to Monday night.

Then the low pushes in with persistent heavy precip. GFS proggs it turning to sleet especially along the coast, although its heavy and may not, then the cold wrap around will turn it back to snow.

Seen as conditions don't actually get that warm with 850hpa briefly touching -4c and the liklyhood of lying snow even the thaw won't be great even at the coast. And the Wicklow Mountains and any High ground looks like getting absolutely plastered.

its the upper temps touching -4 that im worried about...i dont want sleet:p

danni2

Ok it looks like snow showers for the east on sun-mon night, how far inland do you think snow will move, will they go far inland to offaly or will they only affect the east?

patneve

danni2 wrote: »

Ok it looks like snow showers for the east on sun-mon night, how far inland do you think snow will move, will they go far inland to offaly or will they only affect the east?

they should make it inland according to this chart, but they will be heaviest on the e coast...nothing written in stone yet

[IMG]file:///Users/gioacchinobottigliero/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]

ninebeanrows

Looking at the charts i would say there is a chance of seriously disruptive snowfall developing. If that precip Monday night and Tuesday falls as snow, great accumulations are possible.

I'd say the Met are beginning to get a tad worried.

snowfan

BBC weather yesterday noted snow for Dublin on Monday

This has now been downgraded to sleet - with heavy rain to follow on Tuesday and Wednesday :mad:

Should we read too much into this ?

I am hoping the BBC will be wrong on this one - however they are usually very reliable. Either way it looks like there will be ample precipitation for the east coast of Ireland; question is whether we will get rain, hail, sleet or snow?

PS , just saw Sky News weather now - it shows snow flurries for Dublin on Monday with more widespread precipitation for Tuesday (however it looks like a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow)

England & Wales in for some serious traffic disruption on Monday and Tuesday

SF

maquiladora

So I guess in summary GFS 12Z is telling us that precip won't be a problem for us, but past monday night it may not be cold enough to stop the precip from turning wet?

Let's see what the UKMO says...

snowfan

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking at the charts i would say there is a chance of seriously disruptive snowfall developing. If that precip Monday night and Tuesday falls as snow, great accumulations are possible.

I'd say the Met are beginning to get a tad worried.

The million dollar question now is what type of precipitation will fall ?

Over the past four or five years, we have all been disappointed when arising in the morning and expecting the place to be white only to see sleet falling into wet puddles

Just like everyone else, I would love to see a widespread snow event - however experience has taught me to believe it when I see it

I have been disappointed too many times before :mad:

I am praying I am wrong

SF

ninebeanrows

snowfan wrote: »

BBC weather yesterday noted snow for Dublin on Monday

This has now been downgraded to sleet - with heavy rain to follow on Tuesday and Wednesday :mad:

Should we read too much into this ?

I am hoping the BBC will be wrong on this one - however they are usually very reliable. Either way it looks like there will be ample precipitation for the east coast of Ireland; question is whether we will get rain, hail, sleet or snow?

PS , just saw Sky News weather now - it shows snow flurries for Dublin on Monday with more widespread precipitation for Tuesday (however it looks like a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow)

England & Wales in for some serious traffic disruption on Monday and Tuesday

SF

Eastern Ireland is in just the same risk IMO

lucernarian

If the Beeb say there will be sleet in Dublin city with dewpoints at around -2 forecast by the more rain-favoured model at midday on Monday, then they're wrong.:)

Snow, if anything, will fall on Monday in Dublin, that much at least is certain.

BBC say sleet for Dublin city and snow for Belfast city for monday
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0031
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=4091

sunny for cork until tuesday then they say snow
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0211

limerick and Galway similiar with sunny for monday and tuesday and rain thereafter
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=4564
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=4306

snowfan

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

If the Beeb say there will be sleet in Dublin city with dewpoints at around -2 forecast by the more rain-favoured model at midday on Monday, then they're wrong.:)

Snow, if anything, will fall on Monday in Dublin, that much at least is certain.

Ok then I will take your word on it

Snow WILL fall in Dublin on Monday!

SF

lucernarian

Whether that snow turns to sleet later is uncertain, and how much snow and if it will stick is not quite certain on Monday either, but there'll be exclusively snow showers, for Dublin and many other places, over the course of Monday;)