Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

Pangea

Just seen the 9 weather forecast, quite good ,Eagleton seemed to be more convinced of the snow this time , he said that the weather coming from biscay and the NEasterlys have a recipe for very heavy snow but he said hes not saying thats going to happen ,he will keep an eye on it , he said he would be susprised if there wasnt at least some snow on the east coast.

maquiladora

The Eagle has landed!

An even better forecast from Eagleton there. No doubt about snow showers on the East coast for Monday and then he stressed a few times the chance of "heavy snow" on Tuesday. He seemed less unsure than earlier today, said he'd be surprised if it didn't snow on Tuesday.

It's lookin good!

GFS 18Z rolling out now too.

lucernarian

The GFS has been annoyingly quite divergent from ECM and UKMO. Fundamental differences existed, and I can only see the GFS 18z being an upgrade on the 12z. I wish it was more accurate, the GFS output is my only source of dewpoint forecasts...

I feel sorry for John Eagleton and his fellow forecasters. I'm not sure if it's possible to predict Monday night at this stage. What I would say with confidence is that whatever falls up to midnight should be snow in the east, away from areas adjacent to the coast.

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

BB how high is your own location ?

I'm actually quite low Kerry1690-only 162ft asl which isn't enough really.
I'm also only 2 miles from the sea.
IME you need a min of about 450ft before it really starts to help you in terms of snow settling better and snow falling as opposed to sleet.

In marginal situations,you've to head another 2 miles inland to see snow lying if it's wet snow at my location.
Snow always sticks here before it sticks in the town and we usually have more than in the town when it's sticking.

Regarding the Eagles forecast-it is highly likely that Tuesday will be an all snow event for a lot of people especially away from the coast and on higher ground.
I wouldnt rule out coastal snow in my opinion.It's going to be a now cast.Dewpoints will have to be nicely below zero.

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm actually quite low Kerry1690-only 162ft asl which isn't enough really.
I'm also only 2 miles from the sea.
IME you need a min of about 450ft before it really starts to help you in terms of snow settling better and snow falling as opposed to sleet.

In marginal situations,you've to head another 2 miles inland to see snow lying if it's wet snow at my location.
Snow always sticks here before it sticks in the town and we usually have more than in the town when it's sticking.

Regarding the Eagles forecast-it is highly likely that Tuesday will be an all snow event for a lot of people especially away from the coast and on higher ground.
I wouldnt rule out coastal snow in my opinion.It's going to be a now cast.Dewpoints will have to be nicely below zero.

I live around 2 and a half miles from the sea in Donegal, would i have less chance of snow than someone elser further inland?
By the way Im only 2 miles from a big mountain and hills also.

Trotter

Is the coastal aspect of things going to mean that theres no lying snow in Waterford city?

I'll be disgusted!!!!

Without knowing the area,I couldnt say pangea.
But my rule of thumb is 4 miles or more from the sea + height is good.
Being near the mountain would help you in a northeasterly yes but not in a northwesterly as you need the air coming down from the mountain to you and not from you to the mountain and originally from the sea if you get me.

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

Without knowing the area,I couldnt say pangea.
But my rule of thumb is 4 miles or more from the sea + height is good.
Being near the mountain would help you in a northeasterly yes but not in a northwesterly as you need the air coming down from the mountain to you and not from you to the mountain and originally from the sea if you get me.

Thanks ,well let me narrow it down , if i face north ,the sea is to the south of me and the mountain is to the west.

@Trotter

@Trotter It's really an unanswerable question you pose.
If you get heavy showers down there then the snow will stick-end of.

Theres no reason why you shouldnt get them-it's a game of chance.

The showers will develop in whats know as trains down the Irish sea ie in lines of convection - each one being x amount of miles wide.
If you are bulleye on one of those you are in business.
It could be that they hit 10 miles north or south of you and you are unluck.

Forecasting showers that specefic on monday is difficult to impossible.

Pangea

I think that forecasting the weather in general is unpredictable, u never know whats going to happen.

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks ,well let me narrow it down , if i face north ,the sea is to the south of me and the mountain is to the west.

Oh good lord -let me think about that one.

If the sea is to your south then and the precip is from the north or the west or the northwest then yes it should help.
If it's from the sea with you....lol then it's a southerly enough said!

daviddwyer

Would love to have your optimism guys but after so many let downs it just hard to get excited until I actually see it

Remember this thread from last year

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055226753&page=64

I really hope this comes off... cant take another dissappointment

Trotter

Thanks.. I'll settle for a heap load on Tuesday so

Redsunset

is that the little trough met eireann are talkin bout for tues to produce possible heavy snow.i don't think so.

peasant

I for one am looking forward to a few crisp, sunny days (because that's all that Sligo is likely to get)

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Is the coastal aspect of things going to mean that theres no lying snow in Waterford city?

I'll be disgusted!!!!

Chances are good. There will be showers coming along Monday morning and later through the day, its just a case of being under them. It'll be very very cold and if a few of those showers happen to be pass over the city then you'll see lying snow.

Nobody can know for sure exactly what will happen, sure thats what makes it excting :pac:

Wibbler

daviddwyer wrote: »

Would love to have your optimism guys but after so many let downs it just hard to get excited until I actually see it

Remember this thread from last year

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055226753&page=64

I really hope this comes off... cant take another dissappointment

I know how you feel DD. Just looking at that thread - what short memories we have. :rolleyes:

Fingers crossed for the coming event.

Pangea

Whats the general view about snow lying on wet ground?
2 weeks ago ,the ground was very wet in Letterkenny, I said to myself, not a chance snow would lie on it, low n behold it snowed non stop for 4 hours and we got 7 inches, the snow at first was evapourting in the wetness but then it kept building up.:D
So what do yall think, what is the best conditions for snow to lie?,is it better to have frost on the ground or just normal conditions .

kerry1960

Had the impression that you were higher than that BB , not sure why ,
A.... who is the highest poster (elevation) on this site
B.... and who is running the highest weather station
I would think SC is the most likely suspect here ...just curious .

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Whats the general view about snow lying on wet ground?
2 weeks ago ,the ground was very wet in Letterkenny, I said to myself, not a chance snow would lie on it, low n behold it snowed non stop for 4 hours and we got 7 inches, the snow at first was evapourting in the wetness but then it kept building up.:D
So what do yall think, what is the best conditions for snow to lie?,is it better to have frost on the ground or just normal conditions .

I guess if the ground temperature is cold enough and the falling snow is heavy enough then you get lying snow, buy I'd say someone else could explain it better.

arctictree

kerry1960 wrote: »

Had the impression that you were higher than that BB , not sure why ,
A.... who is the highest poster (elevation) on this site
B.... and who is running the highest weather station
I would think SC is the most likely suspect here ...just curious .

I'm at 820ft and will start my weather station if things get interesting!

A

Pangea

arctictree wrote: »

I'm at 820ft and will start my weather station if things get interesting!

A

820 foot? where the hell are u, are u in the clouds lol
whats the best map to find how many feet i live on.

barnicles

daviddwyer wrote: »

Would love to have your optimism guys but after so many let downs it just hard to get excited until I actually see it

Remember this thread from last year

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055226753&page=64

I really hope this comes off... cant take another dissappointment

I had snow then

barnicles

Snow in north cork?

M.T. Cranium

The 18z GFS seemed to be a slight upgrade for Ireland, and things were already looking good.

Latest forecast from this entirely unofficial source ...

Sunday, most of the day dry and cold, but some chance of sleet at times by afternoon, mixing with snow by evening (mainly eastern third), as winds increase to ENE 30-50 mph. Temps 2-3 C falling to 0 C evening.

Monday, periods of snow may be heavy at times covering much of Ireland, but heavier amounts of 15-30 cms are possible in the east, southeast, and south. Winds will back to NE 35-55 mph. Some thunder snow possible, hail or sleet may mix in near sea level on east coast. Far west and northwest likely to see passing snow showers between sunny breaks. Temps -1 C steady.

Tuesday, snow may become mixed with sleet or drizzle as temps rise to about 2 or 3 C but there may be a further snow accumulation of 5-8 cms by later in the day as the precip trends back to all snow. Less windy.

Rest of week, further sleet or snow outbreaks, spreading now to be more likely in the west and north. Highest temps around 3-5 C.

---

current location of the arctic front appears to be central Germany, but the air mass ahead of the front is almost as cold, so it's a case of the whole system mixing rapidly tomorrow with the Biscay low pressure gradually pushing north into France and spreading moisture over top of this rapid surface insertion of arctic air. At first the precip process is mainly sea-effect squall banding. Winds will be gusty and strong partly due to outflow processes from Wales and Pennines crossing Irish Sea. As this mechanism ramps up, the dynamic snow process turns on rapidly and there is some chance this will turn into a blizzard-like snowstorm with heavy snow rates, especially for the southeast quarter of Ireland. Higher elevations could easily see 30 and possibly 40 cms in this set-up, lower elevations 15-25 cms are possible. Some mixing with sleet or rain may degrade these totals but there is equal chance of topping them back up afterwards.

I'm excited and I'm not even there.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

heavier amounts of 15-30 cms are possible in the east, southeast, and south.

wow up to 12 inches of snow possible , dont see the north mentioned though

200motels

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 18z GFS seemed to be a slight upgrade for Ireland, and things were already looking good.

Latest forecast from this entirely unofficial source ...

Sunday, most of the day dry and cold, but some chance of sleet at times by afternoon, mixing with snow by evening (mainly eastern third), as winds increase to ENE 30-50 mph. Temps 2-3 C falling to 0 C evening.

Monday, periods of snow may be heavy at times covering much of Ireland, but heavier amounts of 15-30 cms are possible in the east, southeast, and south. Winds will back to NE 35-55 mph. Some thunder snow possible, hail or sleet may mix in near sea level on east coast. Far west and northwest likely to see passing snow showers between sunny breaks. Temps -1 C steady.

Tuesday, snow may become mixed with sleet or drizzle as temps rise to about 2 or 3 C but there may be a further snow accumulation of 5-8 cms by later in the day as the precip trends back to all snow. Less windy.

Rest of week, further sleet or snow outbreaks, spreading now to be more likely in the west and north. Highest temps around 3-5 C.

---

current location of the arctic front appears to be central Germany, but the air mass ahead of the front is almost as cold, so it's a case of the whole system mixing rapidly tomorrow with the Biscay low pressure gradually pushing north into France and spreading moisture over top of this rapid surface insertion of arctic air. At first the precip process is mainly sea-effect squall banding. Winds will be gusty and strong partly due to outflow processes from Wales and Pennines crossing Irish Sea. As this mechanism ramps up, the dynamic snow process turns on rapidly and there is some chance this will turn into a blizzard-like snowstorm with heavy snow rates, especially for the southeast quarter of Ireland. Higher elevations could easily see 30 and possibly 40 cms in this set-up, lower elevations 15-25 cms are possible. Some mixing with sleet or rain may degrade these totals but there is equal chance of topping them back up afterwards.

I'm excited and I'm not even there.

Hope your right.

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

As this mechanism ramps up, the dynamic snow process turns on rapidly and there is some chance this will turn into a blizzard-like snowstorm with heavy snow rates, especially for the southeast quarter of Ireland.

:eek:

If that were to happen it would be a very rare event indeed. Fingers crossed. :pac:

kerry1960

arctictree wrote: »

I'm at 820ft and will start my weather station if things get interesting!

A

dear god :eek:, your above the timberline mate ,is there yaks wandering
about up there :rolleyes: ,only messin :rolleyes:

kerry1960

MTC , what can i say , a jaw dropping post from you mate .