Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

lucernarian

I've thought about this over lunch. The models still differ where the expected LP is going to travel, and what its pressure will be.

What we want is for the LP to intensify enough so that precipitation and cold air can both be dragged across Ireland. If it intensifies too much, the warm sector will be too pronounced and the LP will travel further north, also limiting the cold air that we would get.

My preference is for the LP to move somewhat slowly towards Bristol or anywhere a bit further south or east than this. This would dilute the mild sector sufficiently to keep precipitation quite wintry yet not take the steam out of it prematurely.

Also, my gut feeling is for places like Kildare, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Carlow and perhaps Waterford to fare best on Monday night with accumulations for much of the night.

But how that LP around France develops is critical. And for the long term prognosis, once again it's how the jet stream interacts with that LP in the atlantic.

Redsunset

im saving this airmass chart.notice the cold pool just over south east england trailing east.(BROWN AREA)and that low over spain thats coming for tuesday.:D:D:D

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

He said that theres more weather coming up from spain and biscay on tuesday and that when it usually comes provides very heavy snow, but he said he is unsure yet if it will fall as snow on us ,its hard to tell.
But he said general snow on tuesday,


Overall a very nice forecast ,with some uncertainty.

Looks like met eireann discovered that this wont happen and its gona rain tuesday
Evelyn said today it doesnt look like there will be general snow,

Ah pangea!

Keep the faith!

Winter is young

Temps dropped another bit here
Now 2.3c with a dp of -2.2c

Wind cuts the face

Should be interesting later...I gather Weathercheck is doing the night shift (on this forum)

munsterlegend

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah pangea!

Keep the faith!

Winter is young

Temps dropped another bit here
Now 2.3c with a dp of -2.2c

Wind cuts the face

Should be interesting later...I gather Weathercheck is doing the night shift (on this forum)

yes exactly keep the faith.

its changing on a daily basis and tomorrow might have a differenf view of things. evelyn two days ago said it would be sunny and dry and i would put far more faith on what the bbc say at this stage.

it will be interesting to watch.

Quiet Lurker

redsunset wrote: »

im saving this airmass chart.notice the cold pool just over south east england trailing east.(BROWN AREA)and that low over spain thats coming for tuesday.:D:D:D

I have been watching this thread with a lot of interests as I have not seen any snow of consequence since 1986 where I live in south east and I have wonderful memories on the snow during my student days in January 1982. I am not sure that we will get a repeat of that as I decipher your thoughts on this board but at least I have a lovely new desktop background !!!
Thanks redsunset :-)

kerry1960

No snow to look forward to here unfortunately , nevertheless temps
dropping steadily this afternoon.
2.8 c , dp -0.8c ,

SpitfireIV

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Also, my gut feeling is for places like Kildare, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Carlow and perhaps Waterford to fare best on Monday night with accumulations for much of the night.

Thank you!

Trogdor

Snow showers making good headway across England atm
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

patneve

trogdor wrote: »

Snow showers making good headway across England atm
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

is that blue speck of ppn in front of dublin just an echo?? (14 30)

That blue spec is called anaprop-a false radar return.

Supercell

Looks likely that skies may clear up somewhat in the next hour or so. This should allow temperatures to fall and ground frost to develop, pretty good if you're looking for a good base for snow.

Clear here now actually.
I'm not expecting any ground frost here if the wind keeps up it's current strength at 15 to 20mph at ground level but it's a very drying wind.

Seriously low central london dewpoints now at circa -8c.
No wonder they are expecting the precip there tomorrow to be snow.


My dp is dropping .
Currently a healthy -2.5c

Roll on the showers later

Trogdor

Supercell wrote: »

Looks likely that skies may clear up somewhat in the next hour or so. This should allow temperatures to fall and ground frost to develop, pretty good if you're looking for a good base for snow.

Should be very nice indeed:D by the looks of it some of those showers will be starting the reach the irish sea having cleared england soon and will begin to pep up hopefully

Mothman

Supercell wrote: »

Looks likely that skies may clear up somewhat in the next hour or so. This should allow temperatures to fall and ground frost to develop, pretty good if you're looking for a good base for snow.

Fair point though won't be much ground frost due to breeze
5cm soil temp up to 4C now with 20cm at about 5C. These will only fall from here on in.
This clear slot is just arriving, probably no quite in time to record sunshine this evening.

3.1C Dp -1.5C atm

trogdor

trogdor wrote: »

Should be very nice indeed:D by the looks of it some of those showers will be starting the reach the irish sea having cleared england soon and will begin to pep up hopefully

When the -8c to -11c 850mb air reaches here over the next 12hours or so,the Irish sea should be generating it's own showers and big ones.

I've probably jinxed this now

lucernarian

GFS 12z is a small upgrade for Monday so far, from what I can tell... The critical charts will have loaded soon.

Trogdor

Deleted User wrote: »

When the -8c to -11c 850mb air reaches here over the next 12hours or so,the Irish sea should be generating it's own showers and big ones.

I've probably jinxed this now

That's what i'm hoping for anyway:D I was wondering earlier..maybe you know. Say a shower begins to cross the irish sea having left england. would the irish sea then redevelop it into a much heftier shower than say one generated by itself in the irish sea?

maquiladora

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

GFS 12z is a small upgrade for Monday so far, from what I can tell... The critical charts will have loaded soon.

How does Tuesday look on this run?

Pangea

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml
Interesting bbc have the first week of february as wet in their montly outlook
but the week after is when they predict colder weather .

Monday 09 February 2009 to Sunday 22 February 2009
“Cold airflow expected.”

Doyler1981

The forum on netweather has a thread setup for different areas in the UK, there is also on for ireland. Interest to read them to see how the snow is now starting to move across the UK, seem to be in the midlands at the moment.

leahyl

Sky news weather always seems to be accurate to me and their chart shows snow moving a fair bit inland for Ireland tomorrow! God i hope it reaches Cork!! PLEASE let it reach CORK!:D

Trotter

Lads could I get an update for Waterford for the next 36 hours, or as best you can.

Would we be looking at schools closing? I actually hope not.. Im too busy! (Bah Humbug )

embee

watching Liverpool v Chelsea now, just kicked off at anfield and it's snowing there

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Lads could I get an update for Waterford for the next 36 hours, or as best you can.

Would we be looking at schools closing? I actually hope not.. Im too busy! (Bah Humbug )

For Trotter and everyone else, here is predicted snow as shown by BBC Weather Beta :






Looks nice :pac:

maquiladora

Look like an slight upgrade for Tuesday on the latest GFS run?

Latest run on the left, previous one on the right.
Percip chart for 12:00 Tue:

jaffa20

Oh i'm so excited. Snow in dublin! Please let it last for the week

jay28

So no snow now on tuesday? DP in Arklow is -2.8 at the minute.....Thats good I hope

jaffa20

Quiet Lurker wrote: »

I have been watching this thread with a lot of interests as I have not seen any snow of consequence since 1986 where I live in south east and I have wonderful memories on the snow during my student days in January 1982. I am not sure that we will get a repeat of that as I decipher your thoughts on this board but at least I have a lovely new desktop background !!!
Thanks redsunset :-)

Hehe, i'm using it as a desktop background too. Cool image.

Jack Sheehan

I can't even remember the last time we had proper snow in Dublin. Dare I hope?