First time buyers Seminars

Fozzie Bear

jetski wrote: »

There is really good value at the moment

I like the way you phrase that. "At the moment" Implying that it could end at any minute. Quick everyone get your cheque books out!

And good value compared to what exactly? To the absolutely ludicrous prices being paid 2 or 3 years ago? But those prices were just crazy in the first place so no its not good value at the moment. It's just that the current prices are a bit less then they were but they are still over priced and ludicrous. Good value my big white ass.

I'm no expert in economics or house prices or stock markets but I can tell when I'm being fed a line of bullsh1t about the housing market. Job losses in there tens of thousands, banks going to the wall, developers and EA pleading with us to buy their over priced, sh1tily built houses and apartments with paper thin walls in unfinished estates. Factories closing down on a weekly basis, mortgages being defaulted, houses being repo'd. Yes all the signs are there that the market has bottomed out and NOW is the time to buy to get those great great deals.

First time buyers by and large are wise to the crap we are being fed about value, prices bottoming out etc from vested interests and our government.
Prices will continue to fall over the coming years its a simple fact. As sure as night follows day prices will continue to tumble.

Oh and good value will be when house prices fall to a place where the average industrial wage earner (those that are left) can offered it. And I don't mean afford it by taking out 110% mortgages or having to go to their parents for 30 or 40 grand loans for a deposit. I mean pay a fair price where 4 or 5 times their salary will buy a 3 or 4 bed house and leave them with enough disposable income to pay their bills, afford a car, health care and a decent standard of living for their families.

We have some way to go before that happens but we will get there.

uncanny

jetski wrote: »

ZXY isnt far off right.... there are some little gems for sale at the moment. its the fear factor thats on the buyers side at the moment.... once thats gone the asking price will be firm.

You used to be a property uber bear

Then you bought something

Right ??

uncanny

ZYX wrote: »

You aresaying the average Irish person works 37.5 hours a week! The real figure is 45 hours.

I reckon the average Irish person works 45 hours a week but gets paid for 37.5 (salaried people)

uncanny

jetski wrote: »

I havent been talking the property market throughout 2008. in the last 2 two months ive said there is value appearing which there is.

There is really good value at the moment

You're in luck jetski. 70,000 of them for sale on daft right now. Go for your life.

uncanny

smccarrick wrote: »

Doubt it- look at all those former Eircom shareholders who would sooner have a frontal lobe lobotomy than buy more shares.......

Another one?

jetski

Fozzie Bear wrote: »

I like the way you phrase that. "At the moment" Implying that it could end at any minute. Quick everyone get your cheque books out!

And good value compared to what exactly? To the absolutely ludicrous prices being paid 2 or 3 years ago? But those prices were just crazy in the first place so no its not good value at the moment. It's just that the current prices are a bit less then they were but they are still over priced and ludicrous. Good value my big white ass.

I'm no expert in economics or house prices or stock markets but I can tell when I'm being fed a line of bullsh1t about the housing market. Job losses in there tens of thousands, banks going to the wall, developers and EA pleading with us to buy their over priced, sh1tily built houses and apartments with paper thin walls in unfinished estates. Factories closing down on a weekly basis, mortgages being defaulted, houses being repo'd. Yes all the signs are there that the market has bottomed out and NOW is the time to buy to get those great great deals.

First time buyers by and large are wise to the crap we are being fed about value, prices bottoming out etc from vested interests and our government.
Prices will continue to fall over the coming years its a simple fact. As sure as night follows day prices will continue to tumble.

Oh and good value will be when house prices fall to a place where the average industrial wage earner (those that are left) can offered it. And I don't mean afford it by taking out 110% mortgages or having to go to their parents for 30 or 40 grand loans for a deposit. I mean pay a fair price where 4 or 5 times their salary will buy a 3 or 4 bed house and leave them with enough disposable income to pay their bills, afford a car, health care and a decent standard of living for their families.

We have some way to go before that happens but we will get there.

so are you talking about 3/4 bed houses in dublin or other counties?

when was the last time anyone could buy a 5 bed house for 5 times a workers salary in dublin?

your refering to times when interest rate were over 20% unlike the falling 3% were seeing now. Ireland was a very different place way back then and were not gonna see that again.

Be more specific your talking to broad and general about the situation remember im talking about a select amount of houses.

There is good value if you look closey enough. with a 10% deposit you can buy a 3 bed semi in the capital for a grand a month. look at other european capitals and see can you apply that.

you talk about job losses and business closings. belive it or not theyre an advantage to anyone in the market to buy because the fear thats spreading will mean you can get a substantial discount on the asking where as is you leave it and wait the natural decline in prices probably wont amount to the same figure. america is due a large bailout within a months time and that will have huge knock on affects for the world economy. so many people are sitting on the fence at the moment waiting to jump in the greedy ones will miss it. similar to the sterling v euro so many people are waiting for it to go back up and its not going to.

jetski

See the decline?

http://daftwatch.atspace.com/


Compare exactly october and january last year and the year before to october and january this year and youl see my point.

uncanny

jetski wrote: »

your refering to times when interest rate were over 20% unlike the falling 3% were seeing now.

What year were interest rates over 20%?

I think they got into the high teens for a very short time in the mid eighties, but inflation was also extremely high at the time - so the real value of the debt was being eroded at the same time incomes were rising in line with inflation.

Now we are experiencing debt defaltion. Incomes are falling, interest rates are falling but the debt is remaining constant. The fall in incomes will more than offset the fall in interest rates, so the debt burden is growing heavier today, opposite of the 80s when it was growing lighter in spite of higher interest rates.

Senna

jetski wrote: »

so are you talking about 3/4 bed houses in dublin or other counties?

when was the last time anyone could buy a 5 bed house for 5 times a workers salary in dublin?

your refering to times when interest rate were over 20% unlike the falling 3% were seeing now. Ireland was a very different place way back then and were not gonna see that again.

Be more specific your talking to broad and general about the situation remember im talking about a select amount of houses.

There is good value if you look closey enough. with a 10% deposit you can buy a 3 bed semi in the capital for a grand a month. look at other european capitals and see can you apply that.

you talk about job losses and business closings. belive it or not theyre an advantage to anyone in the market to buy because the fear thats spreading will mean you can get a substantial discount on the asking where as is you leave it and wait the natural decline in prices probably wont amount to the same figure. america is due a large bailout within a months time and that will have huge knock on affects for the world economy. so many people are sitting on the fence at the moment waiting to jump in the greedy ones will miss it. similar to the sterling v euro so many people are waiting for it to go back up and its not going to.

You are joking right, miss what? You're just after talking about job loses and companies closing. In the next sentence you're saying that people will miss out if they dont buy NOW. Why, is unemployment suddenly going to drop and the economy recover tomorrow.:rolleyes:

Do you think this is the bottom, if you do, your very wrong and i'd say you know it.
I'm a home-owner but i have no interest in keeping prices artificially high. It benefits no one other than those who gamble on the market, investors, developers and other VI's. It does not benefit the general public.

jetski

How many times have i to repeat myself. generally i accept prices are high but not all prices.

youve totally missed the point im making.

uncanny do you research yourself, im not gonna do it for you.

jetski

Senna wrote: »

You are joking right, miss what? You're just after talking about job loses and companies closing. In the next sentence you're saying that people will miss out if they dont buy NOW. Why, is unemployment suddenly going to drop and the economy recover tomorrow.:rolleyes:

Im talking about the apex of the property price decline. if you get if just before youl get a far better deal than you will after.


all the sites that monitor daft, myhome and the rest are showing positive signs that things are cooling off in terms of price decline.

Firetrap

Considering the country's haemorrhaging jobs at the moment and a lot of working people are taking pay cuts, I'd love to know where the masses of FTBs are going to come from to buy these valuable properties. Anecdotally, I know plenty of people who are nervous about their jobs and are more than happy to sit on the fence getting splinters in their backsides.

uncanny

jetski wrote: »

all the sites that monitor daft, myhome and the rest are showing positive signs that things are cooling off in terms of price decline.

tosh and bollocks.

www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com shows last week had the biggest number of price drops EVER

the biggest annualised price drop EVER

seriously jetski, you must be the last plonker in ireland shilling property

The_Conductor

jetski wrote: »

Im talking about the apex of the property price decline. if you get if just before youl get a far better deal than you will after.


all the sites that monitor daft, myhome and the rest are showing positive signs that things are cooling off in terms of price decline.

I'd have to disagree.
The supply of rental and sale property on the open market has according to some surveys temporarily plateaued. According to the same sources- the length of time these properties are on the market continues to lengthen.

Its more a case of people simply not bothering to put their property on the market- as it appears to be pointless.

A very telling statistic would be what proportion of those properties which were on DAFT in November and no longer feature in their statistics were actually rented or sold, as opposed to simply being removed from the market. Anecdotal evidence suggests there are large numbers in this category.

The_Conductor

uncanny wrote: »

tosh and bollocks.

www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com shows last week had the biggest number of price drops EVER

the biggest annualised price drop EVER

seriously jetski, you must be the last plonker in ireland shilling property

Warning uncanny.
If you disagree with what someone posts- refute the post, do not attack the poster. We've been very civil on this forum of late- lets keep it that way.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

uberwolf

Firetrap wrote: »

Anecdotally, I know plenty of people who are nervous about their jobs and are more than happy to sit on the fence getting splinters in their backsides.

We've had this chat a few times amongst friends (FTBs), the number of people who have decided they're buying, but have made no further step towards it - not even to seek approval in principle. They all believe the price has further to drop, even though they see relative value in properties now. Which is fair enough. It's the reverse of a few years ago. Whenever the bottom is met, I don't think it'll be a dead cat bounce that greets us though for this reason.

Duckjob

jetski wrote: »

Im talking about the apex of the property price decline. if you get if just before youl get a far better deal than you will after.


all the sites that monitor daft, myhome and the rest are showing positive signs that things are cooling off in terms of price decline.

Ridiculous.

As I've said before, its impossible to even call where price are at the moment, because next to nothing is selling.

All thats apparent right now is that sellers have lowered their expectations to slightly less silly levels than before. The fact that there's still nothing happening suggests they'll need to lower them a lot further.

jetski

uncanny wrote: »

tosh and bollocks.

www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com shows last week had the biggest number of price drops EVER

the biggest annualised price drop EVER

seriously jetski, you must be the last plonker in ireland shilling property

That report you linked to is based on international drops you clever boy.

Try this report http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/pn_rep_charts.php

youd be a little niave to make your judgement on a single days report anyway. The mean of the irish price drops is going to tell you far more and is a bit more relative so maybe if you consider www.irishpropertywatch.com/ you can see the average drop is 75 per day which is up from 54 i do accept but that report averaged 200 to 250 perday last year. we also might be seeing a small fluctuation as january is catching up after the december holidays.

The_Conductor

Behave guys.......
No personal abuse.
I've already warned uncanny- Jetski, consider yourself on a warning too.

If you disagree with what someone posts- refute the post. Do not resort to personalising your comments.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

jetski

Duckjob wrote: »

Ridiculous.

As I've said before, its impossible to even call where price are at the moment, because next to nothing is selling.

All thats apparent right now is that sellers have lowered their expectations to slightly less silly levels than before. The fact that there's still nothing happening suggests they'll need to lower them a lot further.

How do you know nothing is selling as far as i remember the CSO havent released those stats, unless you know something i dont?

Again id say youv missed my point by a long shot, im talking about a select few not all the property. your too broad in your statments mate.

Duckjob

I'm not saying NO property is selling, but the market is screwed.

How do I know this? Well...

- from friends who worked in estate agents offices, and have been let go, or are just about to because the agent they work for hasn't sold a house in months.

- from solicitors i work who set up in the boom, and who's business is now in tatters because it was based entirely on conveyencing work that has all but dried up completely now.

- from friends who have been trying to sell their property for 1yr+ for whom even just getting a viewing from a buyer is a big event.

- from talking with many many people who also have the above experiences.

uncanny

jetski wrote: »

That report you linked to is based on international drops you clever boy.

No, it's not. :rolleyes:

It's based on Daft.ie properties IN THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

"We consider Daft.ie the best dataset for the South. It has a limited number of Northern listings which we analyse in a seperate report. We view Propertynews.com as a better source for the property listings in the North. It also has a reasonable number of listings for the South (approximatley half of the amount on Daft.ie) so we also include analysis of these listings."

The report you linked to is based on Propertynews, which is half the data thats on daft, though it might suit your particular agenda a bit better.

Senna

jetski wrote: »

im talking about a select few not all the property.

Will these select few be sold within days and there will never be such value again. Value is relative, yes there is better value out there now, much much better. There are houses for sale that are half what they would have been in 2006, yes far cheaper, but not the cheapest they'll ever be, and still beyond historical salary multiples of normal workers.
Anyone who is in the market to buy will be doing more research than the average buyer in 2004/5/6, if they decide to buy, good for them, i hope it all works outs. But why do you feel the need to talk-up a falling market, i know your not an estate agent, developer etc.

spockety

jetski wrote: »

Im talking about the apex of the property price decline. if you get if just before youl get a far better deal than you will after.


all the sites that monitor daft, myhome and the rest are showing positive signs that things are cooling off in terms of price decline.

yeeeeahh, o-kay.