Cold Spell Phase 2 (Wednesday onwards)

SpitfireIV

A new thread eh! The old one confined to the history shelves of the Boards storeroom where forever more it shall be looked upon as the 'Great Snowfall of February 2009', our children, and our childrens children shall view it in awe, you mark my words! :pac::p

Anyway, this place is the quitest now that its been for a few days, seems everyones having an early night, no street light watching tonight! :cool:

Well, here's to Wednesday night/Thursday! May it bring us (but more so those of you whom have been denied snow these past few days) a damn good covering! I'm actually hoping for a snow free day and a somewhat dry day tomorrow, have an enormous amount of outdoor work to do and the weather these last few days hasnt favoured me :rolleyes:, but it was snow, so, I can live with it.

DOCARCH

At some stage the sleet must have turned to very wet snow during the night as I have fresh (very wet0 snow cover on cars, etc.

Still a lot of snow remaining from yesterday, on roofs, grass, pavemnets, etc. This is my third morning in a row with snow lying - can't remeber that for a very very long time!

I have recorded 50.4mm of ppn in 24 hours (snow, snow melt and rain)!

Am liking Met E forecast this morning:

More prolonged falls of sleet and snow will develop in the north this evening. Maximum temperatures only 3 to 6 Celsius, in a fresh and gusty easterly wind.

Tonight

Tonight will be very cold, with outbreaks of sleet and snow extending southwards in over Ulster, much of Connacht and north Leinster. Mainly dry elsewhere, but some scattered showers will occur along the east coast, Minimum temperatures 0 to minus 2 Celsius, with frost and icy conditions in many areas.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow will be bitterly cold, with fresh to strong north to northeast winds. There will be some bright or sunny spells, bur scattered wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow also, especially in the north and east. Max. 1 to 5 Celsius.

M.T. Cranium

Today, the old low keeps on slowly dying as it circles around to the southwest ... some further sleet or snow may occur but the temperatures have risen just enough to change the balance over to more rain today.

Colder air is set to return from north of Scotland, and on the way through it is going to pick up some very cold air around Glasgow, as well as the remains of a front that is dropping rain and sleet in northern Scotland now. This should add moisture to the cold flow, and swing the probability back to snow for Thursday's sea effect snow streamers running down the east side of the country, as well as impacting the northwest from the Atlantic.

As with the first set of events, the snow will be more likely to stick inland and at some elevation, but once again, it could become heavy at times. Friday and Saturday will see continued snow, then a somewhat milder trend is likely to develop.

I predict this thread may make it to 100 pages, after the first one reached about 210 ... some places that don't lose much snow today could be doubling their totals on the ground through this second event, and it should make for some interesting reports from the local mountains this weekend.

From RTE.ie

There were heavy snowfalls on the Wicklow mountains where four motorists remain stranded in their cars in the Sally Gap.
Members of the Wicklow Mountain Rescue team stayed with the motorists overnight but it was deemed too dangerous to attempt a rescue through the night.
A rescue operation is under way, which is being carried out by the Dublin Wicklow Mountain Rescue and the Glen of Imall Rescue team.

The wicklow mountain rescue team tried to reach them from the laragh end and got stuck.
They then got as far as they could from the Blessington side and had to resort to ski's to reach them.
They stayed with the cars overnight.
The snow is 4 feet deep with it being impossible to make out the road from the deep dikes and fields and obviously the road is closed.


The rescuers were interviewed in their strong wickla accents on morning Ireland which you'll be able to listen to online later when it's up.
I think it was around 810 to 820 am


It's being dubbed Irelands first ski rescue!

sorella

In the foothills of the Blue Stacks here; little wind but bitter cold and once more frozen up.

Pangea wrote: »

Currently Very windy here in South Donegal and it is freezing too! The car is white with frost ,very strange ,never saw it being so windy and it freezing at the same time.

MayoForSam

Well. I'm in north Co. Galway and the event just gone was absolutely useless for us in terms of snow - we got about 2 showers that melted almost straight away and all we got was sleety rain last night.

Hopefully, the change in wind direction will bring a lot more of the white stuff our way this time. I wonder will the Atlantic have much of a warming influence on any precip coming in from the NW?

Fingers crossed we get snow and ice for Friday morning, I'm supposed to be going to Dublin but I'm looking for an excuse to get out of it!

I doubt if this thread will get as many hits as the previous one, a lot less people will be affected in the north and west in any case (unless those NE streamers get going down the Irish sea).

MayoForSam

Deleted User wrote: »

From RTE.ie




The wicklow mountain rescue team tried to reach them from the laragh end and got stuck.
They then got as far as they could from the Blessington side and had to resort to ski's to reach them.
They stayed with the cars overnight.
The snow is 4 feet deep with it being impossible to make out the road from the deep dikes and fields and obviously the road is closed.


The rescuers were interviewed in their strong wickla accents on morning Ireland which you'll be able to listen to online later when it's up.
I think it was around 810 to 820 am


It's being dubbed Irelands first ski rescue!

Apparently, they were 'sightseers' who went up looking for heavy snow in two 4x4's :rolleyes:.

Some Dutch tourists got stranded somewhere else near Tallaght and a garda car that went to their rescue also got stuck - a trusty local farmer and his tractor managed to get them out. Local knowledge FTW in this sort of weather!

darkman2

Looks like the East coast snow streamer will be back just after midnight. Tomorrow morning looks very snowy in the East. Then tomorrow evening snow moves off shore again - may move onshore again on Friday. Then keep an eye on Sunday. Something a bit more substantial (but probrably transitionary snow to rain) is brewing;)

Supercell

Unf'n believeable amounts of snow here, its pure snowmageddon!!
Tree branches down everywhere, lost power at 02:00, but restored now.
What those people were doing at Sally gap in these conditions is beyond silly.
Its melting now but there is sooooo much of it its going to be here for another few days at least, well over a foot of snow in the fields.

Rambling rose

Raining here all morning in Kilkenny, not a scrap of snow in sight.

Im gutted

Still wondreing if I should travel to and from Dublin tonight or will this wet -freeze and make conditions as dangerous as they have been the last few evenings?


LET IT SNOW....

francosp

Whats the odds that Dublin will see snow tomorrow ?

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

Unf'n believeable amounts of snow here, its pure snowmageddon!!
Tree branches down everywhere, lost power at 02:00, but restored now.
What those people were doing at Sally gap in these conditions is beyond silly.
Its melting now but there is sooooo much of it its going to be here for another few days at least, well over a foot of snow in the fields.

pictures or it didnt happen

roryc1

Deleted User wrote: »

pictures or it didnt happen

yea sound,s like a dream:)

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

pictures or it didnt happen

Heh, I'm actually curious as to the snow depth on level open ground so shall be armed with camera and tape measure later to provide the proof!!

My roof is effectively one big waterfall right now..so much melting snow.
I'd say even tractors would have a hard time of it getting up the hills here.

Supercell

Merged threads as both on same topic

Supercell

Reading the GFS 6z, the precipitation timing is interesting.
Norn Iron wil have the precip earlier in the night and probably will see snow throughout. For Dublin and the SE it doesnt arrive really until 5 or 6AM with peak intensity around midday.so may be a snow to sleet affair at sea level.
850's are not as cold as earlier runs either, only -5 or so, that said is an Artic source..still, its very marginal again. I think it will be a nowcast scenario with all eyes to DP's in the north tonight.

pistolpetes11

Left Newbridge this morning and the place was still covered in snow ! Actually all the way up the N7 was , as was most of the places along the M50 from the Red Cow to Sandyford ,

Then when i got into Sandyford there was not a bit left!

darkman2

Supercell wrote: »

Reading the GFS 6z, the precipitation timing is interesting.
Norn Iron wil have the precip earlier in the night and probably will see snow throughout. For Dublin and the SE it doesnt arrive really until 5 or 6AM with peak intensity around midday.so may be a snow to sleet affair at sea level.
850's are not as cold as earlier runs either, only -5 or so, that said is an Artic source..still, its very marginal again. I think it will be a nowcast scenario with all eyes to DP's in the north tonight.

ECM shows something a bit more substantial for the East tomorrow



Comfortably cold enough by the looks of things



Also there is a difference in timing. GFS brings in precip in the early hours - ECM early tomorrow morning and lasting throughout the day.

That looks very marginal now away from the hills.
The precip looks like the lighter stuff from the system over the UK.

The Irish sea might spoil the dewpoints in that case despite the polar source.

Streamer Irish sea LES would have been better.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

That looks very marginal now away from the hills.
The precip looks like the lighter stuff from the system over the UK.

The Irish sea might spoil the dewpoints in that case despite the polar source.

Streamer Irish sea LES would have been better.

I disagree tbh. I don't think it is part of the system over England and Wales. I think it is showers. Its very similar to the GFS but there is about a 6 hours difference between the two. We got snow yesterday in a more marginal setup then that here on the coast. Id be pretty confident of snow in that setup myself.

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

I disagree tbh. I don't think it is part of the system over England and Wales. I think it is showers. Its very similar to the GFS but there is about a 6 hours difference between the two. We got snow yesterday in a more marginal setup then that here on the coast. Id be pretty confident of snow in that setup myself.

I'd be more confident of snow from this northeaster than yesterday morning.

These charts are usually fairly accurate as to what will fall and reasonably good for precip distribution

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

I'd be more confident of snow from this northeaster than yesterday morning.

These charts are usually fairly accurate as to what will fall and reasonably good for precip distribution

Dew Points look favourable.


Like I say the GFS seems a morning/early afternoon thing whereas the ECM has day day long precip on the coast and into tomorrow night.

Davo D

How reliable is this chart?

darkman2

Davo D wrote: »

How reliable is this chart?

Accurate enough. It's basically just taken from the GFS weather model and put in a different format so as accurate as they come.



BTW - an ice day tomorrow for many. Take care on the roads!

nacho libre

MayoForSam wrote: »

Well. I'm in north Co. Galway and the event just gone was absolutely useless for us in terms of snow - we got about 2 showers that melted almost straight away and all we got was sleety rain last night.

Hopefully, the change in wind direction will bring a lot more of the white stuff our way this time. I wonder will the Atlantic have much of a warming influence on any precip coming in from the NW?
/QUOTE]

, if the winds don't swing fully around to the north, as i thought they would, then i'm afraid we will get sod all showers over this side of the country after the front passes southwards. i'm not confident either this front passing down overnight will give widespread snow over low ground in the west and northwest of the country. it'll probably be sleet in many places at first. however, it should hopefully turn to snow everywhere at the back end of the front when the arctic air is kicking in behind the front.

god i hope i'm wrong about tonight's front and we wake to a white blanket in the morning.

HashSlinging

Hi Mods, im over on the northside dub today and tomorrow, coming from Rathdrum was going to stay in a cheap B'nB to avoid the trip over in the morning.. is there much happening over the next 24 hrs in the wicklow town - Rathdrum - Laragh direction.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

I disagree tbh. I don't think it is part of the system over England and Wales. I think it is showers. Its very similar to the GFS but there is about a 6 hours difference between the two. We got snow yesterday in a more marginal setup then that here on the coast. Id be pretty confident of snow in that setup myself.

Ah It's just on the GFS and ECM the precip is joined.
It wasnt yesterday.
That is where my concern lies.
Ergo they seem to be suggesting that the precip in the East is from the UK system.

If it's streamer precip,the charts are drawn wrong and yes it will be snow.

The netweather ones are just silly given that they have red in this area and stronger chances further north.
Both the ECM and gfs have heavy precip down this way...how that could be an 80% chance of snow as opposed to 95% is beyond me if temps are to be what they are to be.

Struggling to get above 5c here today so far which augers well for when proper polar air comes down.

Nowcastery here we go-believe it if I see it,hope I havent jinxed it etc etc...

Supercell

HashSlinging wrote: »

Hi Mods, im over on the northside dub today and tomorrow, coming from Rathdrum was going to stay in a cheap B'nB to avoid the trip over in the morning.. is there much happening over the next 24 hrs in the wicklow town - Rathdrum - Laragh direction.

Probably about 10cm + of snow should be lying in that area by tomorrow afternoon.

danni2

Any chance of snow here tonight? It looks as if the precip will die out by the time the front reaches here.

Supercell

I'm with BB on this one, I'd be happier if the GFS was onboard too, its only t+24 now, there really shouldn't be much difference between the two at such a near stage unless there is uncertainty about it.
Not writing it off, but I think its far from certain at sea level at this juncture.