Weather forecast and outlook for the coming Weeks

obrienmichael

Listening to the farming forecast on rte today John Eagleton reckons we are finished with frost and snow for this winter. I think he is getting a bit carried away by the current mild spell we are having at the moment. March could spring a few surprises pardon the pun. :eek:

Mothman

obrienmichael wrote: »

Listening to the farming forecast on rte today John Eagleton reckons we are finished with frost and snow for this winter. I think he is getting a bit carried away by the current mild spell we are having at the moment. March could spring a few surprises pardon the pun. :eek:

Yes, but March IS Spring so I suppose he's right, but yes we nearly always get winter weather in March and beyond.

puss

Heared Eileen Dunne say this evening on 5 pm headlines that we will have grass frost tonight. Is that the same as ground grass?

Mothman

puss wrote: »

Heared Eileen Dunne say this evening on 5 pm headlines that we will have grass frost tonight. Is that the same as ground grass?

Yes,
The standard measurement is a thermometer supported in short grass 5cm above ground so that the bulb is touching the top of the grass.

I usually call it a grass frost but it seems interchangeable with ground frost. On clear nights the grass temperature is typically 6C below the air temp 1.2m above and can be more than 10C below. Ususally the grass min is -3C before it is visible.

nacho libre

obrienmichael wrote: »

Listening to the farming forecast on rte today John Eagleton reckons we are finished with frost and snow for this winter. I think he is getting a bit carried away by the current mild spell we are having at the moment. March could spring a few surprises pardon the pun. :eek:

yes, he should have said it's unlikely we'll see a repeat of what happened earlier on this month, but that falls of sleet and snow, especially at night, should not be discounted during the month of March.

obrienmichael

Usually around St.Patricks Day the weather gets very cold. This has become a regular trend over the past couple of years, so i would not rule out one more cold snap before the April showers kick in. :eek:

nacho libre

obrienmichael wrote: »

Usually around St.Patricks Day the weather gets very cold. This has become a regular trend over the past couple of years, so i would not rule out one more cold snap before the April showers kick in. :eek:

well, there are already tentative signs of a colder incursion by next Tuesday. of course that could change, but the models are predicting that the dreadful azores high will finally slip southwards during next weekend. we probably won't get a snowfest out of a north westerly but it's got to be better than the awful:p weather we have at the moment

Mothman

nacho libre wrote: »

but it's got to be better than the awful:p weather we have at the moment

The recent dry and milder conditions have been welcomed by many. It has been generally very dull except for east Wicklow.

15-22nd Feb I had 26hrs sunshine, Cork AP had 17.5, Dublin AP 16, Casement 13.5 and the midlands and west were miserable with less than 10hrs.

See ME Agricultural Reports

And for 16-23rd feb I had 29hrs. The ag report will update soon with this date span.
Dull here today.

danni2

Ok, looks like we may see something cold next week according to the gfs charts, still a bit far out and could change but something to keep an eye on.

obrienmichael

I just listened to the six one weather it is to turn colder next weekend with a northwesterely setting in. Gene Byrne said there will be showers but didn't say if they would be wintry. Is this the begining of another cold snap. I hope so.

Colder yes.
There could be some surprises but I wouldnt hold my breath for a repeat of the 1st week in february or anything.

Across the water,they're getting excited about a -5c 850's.

I call that nuisance cold.
Cold enough for miserable cold rain but not cold enough for snow in a heavily atlantic maratime somewhat originaly polar NW flow unless you live on a mountain top.
The unreliable GFS is an example but I'd put as much faith in it at the moment as bank shares tbh given it's recent performances.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Redsunset

right thats it imo,all over bar the shouting,time to look ahead again.i know sunday looks promising but heres an ecm chart that wee bit further out an could be of interest if it materialises.could be settin up a nice trend:D

Pangea

UK Outlook for Tuesday 10 Mar 2009 to Thursday 19 Mar 2009:

Rather cold and unsettled weather looks set to dominate this period. Wet and windy at first with rain in most areas, and a risk of snow over higher ground in the north while it becomes briefly milder in the south and west. Brighter by mid week with showers and sunny spells, but the showers wintry over high ground in the north. For the rest of the period, temperatures often below normal with overnight frosts a continuing risk. Winds are likely to stay in the north or northwest with occasional spells of rain, but many days should see a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers that could give some snow almost anywhere although chiefly over high ground over central and especially northern areas.

Redsunset

charts look almost identical on ecm and gefs fi at the moment.savage greenland high developes,hope it holds:D

Redsunset

HAPPY ST PATRICK'S DAY:D:D:D


thats 3 model systems showing moch colder conditions now,please please please stay like that.NOTE;this chart will change with every run

nacho libre

yeah it looks too good to be true.

Redsunset

i've got little to say.fi is such a tease:rolleyes:

nacho libre

yeah, again it seems too good to be true. i bet there will a complete backtrack in the coming days. better to talk it all down than build your hopes up;)

maquiladora

Seems like a bit of downgrade on that deep FI event already but sure it's so far into FI that its going to change a lot before we get close anyway.

asdasd

enough already.

snow in March can never last anyway, the sun is as strong and the day as long in March as September. Nice charts for Jan/Early Feb.

Time to move on. Spring.

nacho libre

asdasd wrote: »

enough already.

snow in March can never last anyway, the sun is as strong and the day as long in March as September. Nice charts for Jan/Early Feb.

Time to move on. Spring.

Not at all. Seeing as we'll have eight months without snow. I welcome snow in March even if it only sticks at night. Spring can wait...

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

Not at all. Seeing as we'll have eight months without snow. I welcome snow in March even if it only sticks at night. Spring can wait...

here here!

There always seems to be snow on the first week of march

Its a pity that we dont get snowfall more in december around Christmas.

Snowfall is more common in Ireland around January ,February and March.
And Yes I dont think snow is rare in Ireland , thats for all u people that talk bull about ireland!
Last year I had 3 snow events in Dongeal same as this year.
One being in April which lead to my college lectures being cancelled
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7332986.stm

kerry1960

Pangea wrote: »

here here!

There always seems to be snow on the first week of march

Its a pity that we dont get snowfall more in december around Christmas.

Snowfall is more common in Ireland around January ,February and March.
And Yes I dont think snow is rare in Ireland , thats for all u people that talk bull about ireland!
Last year I had 3 snow events in Dongeal same as this year.
One being in April which lead to my college lectures being cancelled
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7332986.stm

Here here , dec, jan, feb, mar, have so far resulted in 8 mornings with lying snow in my area , unbelievable really , and over the years any snowfall we get here usually occurs in march , april , winter still a long way to go yet .

Pangea

Looks good from MET UK till mid march

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Cold and blustery on Sunday, with heavy wintry showers, especially towards the north and west. Remaining cold, windy and showery Monday and Tuesday, with some wetter weather on Monday night.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 11 Mar 2009 to Friday 20 Mar 2009:

The weather is expected to be rather cloudy, mild and damp in the west and southwest on Wednesday and Thursday, while being generally brighter and chilly at times towards the north and east with wintry showers in the far north. As we head through into the weekend, the colder weather in the north is expected to spread southwards to give a mix of sunshine and showers, accompanied by overnight frost. The showers, falling as sleet or snow in some places, are likely to be heaviest and most prevalent towards the northwest, while southern areas fare best with the sunshine. Beyond the weekend, the most likely trend is for the weather to remain rather cold and unsettled with a likelihood of wintry showers and overnight frost.

kerry1960

Short term cold , followed by a warm up of sorts ........and then this




all FI of course , but if this chart comes off , :eek:

Pangea

kerry1960 wrote: »

all FI of course , but if this chart comes off , :eek:

Dam u weather experts never finish ur sentences
lol if this comes off then what! :pac::pac:

By the way this reminds me of last month when we had a great chart for the 23rd of February but it never materilased .

nacho libre

pangea your caution is well advised. as fi can never really be trusted.

indeed that fi chart is already a slight downgrade compared to earlier charts. so it could easily be downgraded further. if the greenland high block isn't strong enough over us we could up end up with a murky frontal zone with wave depressions etc passing over us instead of a strong arctic influence which would result in the milder stuff being pushed further south

kerry1960

Pangea wrote: »

Dam u weather experts never finish ur sentences
lol if this comes off then what! :pac::pac:

By the way this reminds me of last month when we had a great chart for the 23rd of February but it never materilased .

Weather experts ........me....... lol , our own 'experts' ie Met Eireann have enough trouble with their own 'predictions' at times so the rest of us have no chance :pac: ,

I used that chart to highlight the depth of cold air to the north and east , it could be a very cold 2nd half of march , as has been forecasted some days ago by our american friend mr bastardi , however as nacho pointed out no point in putting too much faith in a chart @ t300 , so lets wait an see

Edit : heres the link if anyones interested . + one large pinch of salt





http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Redsunset

we,re due a fi chart to reach us intact sometme:pac:
still tho tis fun lookin at them.big debate now,will it snow patrick's day:pac:

kerry1960

Will it snow paddys day ..... in all probability (imo) there's a far better chance of wintry conditions this year than any other year this century , just a matter of timing .