Help! How much is this worth?

subway

niallo27 wrote: »

can i ask where you got that figure from

take a look at my post on the 30/06 and apply the same principle

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=60934769&postcount=52

niallo27

subway wrote: »

take a look at my post on the 30/06 and apply the same principle

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=60934769&postcount=52

What are you trying to say, you could apply that to any house in the country. your post just quotes figures, where did you get these from.
Do you really think 150k for a 4 bedroom detached is realistic?

subway

prices are just figures! the idea is that its a principle that can be applied to any property in the world.

take the monthly rent, multiple it by 12 to get the yearly rent then again by 14 to see how much the house would cost if it were to produce a 7% (reasoble) return on investment.
that should give you a monetary value.
you can add in as muich as you like for emotinal value, but dont get carried away.

average house at 150k is where this will end,
personally i expect it to go lower than that at some pint

gurramok

niallo27 wrote: »

What are you trying to say, you could apply that to any house in the country. your post just quotes figures, where did you get these from.
Do you really think 150k for a 4 bedroom detached is realistic?

Look, its in a remote village in the middle of nowhere in Clare which is a low density county on the west coast.

Thats a significant factor as to why it will hit 150k as we all know, its location location location.

iguana

gurramok wrote: »

Look, its in a remote village in the middle of nowhere in Clare which is a low density county on the west coast.

Thats a significant factor as to why it will hit 150k as we all know, its location location location.

It's actually a commuter area for Limerick, Ennis and Shannon. But I don't disagree that the house is probably worth around the €150,000 mark, possibly less. €35k is a pretty good salary in those areas and the house is nice looking, but comes with a commute and is near Shannon flightpaths, so about right for that income.

If the house was actually in a remote Clare village it would probably end up around €50k or <.

gurramok

Fair enough Iguana when looking more closely at the map. Still Limerick aint London nor its smaller version Dublin, 355k asking now is monopoly money.
I'd estimate 100k+ for this one as an equivalent property in Limerick in a decent area should commander 150k+.

niallo27

iguana wrote: »

It's actually a commuter area for Limerick, Ennis and Shannon. But I don't disagree that the house is probably worth around the €150,000 mark, possibly less. €35k is a pretty good salary in those areas and the house is nice looking, but comes with a commute and is near Shannon flightpaths, so about right for that income.

If the house was actually in a remote Clare village it would probably end up around €50k or <.

Comes with a commute, not sure what you mean by this, on the shannon flightpaths problem, its only amercian flights that travel over here, which is only one maybe two flights a day, but the question is when will it be able to be bought for this price, 4 or 5 years time. Its 10 mins from work in limerick for me and 5 mins to shannon for the missus.

niallo27

gurramok wrote: »

Fair enough Iguana when looking more closely at the map. Still Limerick aint London nor its smaller version Dublin, 355k asking now is monopoly money.
I'd estimate 100k+ for this one as an equivalent property in Limerick in a decent area should commander 150k+.

Ya 355 is crazy money, thats obvious but for 70%+ to be knocked off the price, are you being realistic

iguana

niallo27 wrote: »

Comes with a commute, not sure what you mean by this,

I mean that very few people work in Sixmilebridge and will have to travel to work each day. That's the kind of thing that lowers prices, if it was on Ballysimon Rd (or similar) and you could walk to wok each day it would be worth more.

gurramok

niallo27 wrote: »

Ya 355 is crazy money, thats obvious but for 70%+ to be knocked off the price, are you being realistic

Why not? Where is the demand to create that price?

blu79

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/new-developments/brochure/radharc-na-doiri/16121

Need some advice on what to offer here. we want the 4 bed showhouse which is 285,000. thinking of starting at 210, hoping to finish under 230. There is a 3 bed available at 230,000 which is why i'm not offering lower on the 4 bed. should i just offer 225 and say that's my offer take or leave it? other houses like this in region are on for 235+

The_Conductor

blu79 wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/new-developments/brochure/radharc-na-doiri/16121

Need some advice on what to offer here. we want the 4 bed showhouse which is 285,000. thinking of starting at 210, hoping to finish under 230. There is a 3 bed available at 230,000 which is why i'm not offering lower on the 4 bed. should i just offer 225 and say that's my offer take or leave it? other houses like this in region are on for 235+

A village thats steeped in history? God, I love it..... Is this the official or the unofficial history- I wonder?

OP- its a rural village in Carlow. Unless you can see yourself living here indefinitely, and have relatives in the area- do not buy.

Its nice- but its out of the way- and an inconvenience for visitors/relatives etc.

If you're not familiar with the area- make sure you pop into the fruit farm just outside Ballon, and the nice folk in the Coillte nursery up the road at Ballintemple have an amazing wholesale nursery- which is something else altogether.

blu79

What's not to love, it's got history AND a bridge!! but seriously, we've been looking around the county for 4 years now (sensible people who waited!) and this is where we want to live.

The_Conductor

blu79 wrote: »

What's not to love, it's got history AND a bridge!! but seriously, we've been looking around the county for 4 years now (sensible people who waited!) and this is where we want to live.

Cool. If you've done your homework and are happy with your choice- all you have to do is figure how much of a discount you can wring out of the builder.

Have a look at Aradattin and other local places to get a feel of what property prices are at- its so long since I lived there I'd not have a clue (I did an apprenticeship in Coillte many moons ago and was based in Ballintemple for a spell).

MuffinsDa

Freddie59 wrote: »

You're missing the point. ntlbell has covered it very well. Visit those three sites I posted and decide for yourself. As far as I can see you're trying to convince YOURSELF to buy it.

You'll regret it.

Or perhaps ... think about it, why would one try and convince oneself(!) to buy it, unless one owns it and ...

niallo27

gurramok wrote: »

Fair enough Iguana when looking more closely at the map. Still Limerick aint London nor its smaller version Dublin, 355k asking now is monopoly money.
I'd estimate 100k+ for this one as an equivalent property in Limerick in a decent area should commander 150k+.

So townhouses will be about 30k to 40k so based on this,a house less than an yearly wage, i cant wait for this, based on your rent calculation to make 7% shouldnt we all have being paying around 3 or 4 grand a month based on the last few years prices, where did this magic 14 times rent come from, is this based on amercian houses.

subway

houses haven't provided a rental yield for a long time if you bought at peak prices.
7% is based on a decent return (better than bank)
many landlords have (foolishly) been relying on capital appreciation for the past few years.

houses less than the average wage? why not?
all depends on local demand as a function of local ability to pay.
just becuase a family in dublin have an income of 50k, doesnt mean houses in carlow are worth 4 times that.

i'm not spending much more time going through this, thers plenty of info out there if you lok around

niallo27

subway wrote: »

houses haven't provided a rental yield for a long time if you bought at peak prices.
7% is based on a decent return (better than bank)
many landlords have (foolishly) been relying on capital appreciation for the past few years.

houses less than the average wage? why not?
all depends on local demand as a function of local ability to pay.
just becuase a family in dublin have an income of 50k, doesnt mean houses in carlow are worth 4 times that.

i'm not spending much more time going through this, thers plenty of info out there if you lok around

Yes i have being looking around, thats all i have being doing, listen everyone was saying buy buy buy a few years ago and the people who did are laughed at and ridiculed on here, now everyone is saying dont buy, who know we could be laughing at these people for not buying in the next year or so. i know some places are crazily oversupplied but some places are not

gurramok

niallo27 wrote: »

So townhouses will be about 30k to 40k so based on this,a house less than an yearly wage, i cant wait for this, based on your rent calculation to make 7% shouldnt we all have being paying around 3 or 4 grand a month based on the last few years prices, where did this magic 14 times rent come from, is this based on amercian houses.

Subway explained it. I never said 30k or 40k, i said 100k. They'll go to 30k if there are no buyers in an empty estate or there is a firesale like the one beginning in Cavan. If they don't get buyers at 100k, they reduce the price further till they do get buyers.

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes i have being looking around, thats all i have being doing, listen everyone was saying buy buy buy a few years ago and the people who did are laughed at and ridiculed on here, now everyone is saying dont buy, who know we could be laughing at these people for not buying in the next year or so. i know some places are crazily oversupplied but some places are not

2006 was the peak, it was mad to buy then. The reason to not buy now is obvious, the failing economy, lack of credit and the oversupply to name a few factors which have drove down demand.

Areas without oversupply are still falling in price, its everywhere. You are lucky you did not buy in 2006. And you will be mad to buy now, like catching a falling knife. This does not apply if you do not care about getting the best deal financially.

The_Conductor

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes i have being looking around, thats all i have being doing, listen everyone was saying buy buy buy a few years ago and the people who did are laughed at and ridiculed on here, now everyone is saying dont buy, who know we could be laughing at these people for not buying in the next year or so. i know some places are crazily oversupplied but some places are not

To be honest- I don't think people are saying 'don't buy' outright.
People are saying- don't buy unless you can afford the property if there is a significant rise in interest rates, expect asset appreciation, or expect to move in the medium term.

If you accept that there is a property tax coming in, water charges, a carbon tax- and other costs of ownership- such as mortgage interest rates- are already increasing (you can be certain other lenders are going to ape Permanent TSB as soon as the furore dies down- and ECB base rates *are* going to rise 3-3.5% to 'normal' levels, as the global financial crisis dies down). With the complete abolition of mortgage interest relief @ 7 years, and immediately for investors- this is yet another cost of ownership thats going through the roof.

In a climate of significant increases in the cost of ownership- with a simultaneous fall in incomes (for all income groups)- market forces will gradually determine house prices will return to levels of affordability- which means the cost would be ~35-40% of net income max.........

Use 2006 as 100 on an index. Factor in abolition of mortgage interest relief for those @ 7 years, no-overtime, increased PRSI, pension levies in the public sector, reduced allowances etc- the average person might be down ~40% net (if you still have a job!). If relative affordability were to stand still @ 40% of net income- where 40 was 'affordable' in 2006- the 2009 commensurate sum is 24. This reduction-is before interest rate increases have really begun to hit people........

People are not blindly advising that its a bad idea to buy at the moment- simply that people's personal circumstances are not likely to get better in the medium term- and the costs of ownership that people are accustomed to- are changing radically for the worse........

niallo27

gurramok wrote: »

Subway explained it. I never said 30k or 40k, i said 100k. They'll go to 30k if there are no buyers in an empty estate or there is a firesale like the one beginning in Cavan. If they don't get buyers at 100k, they reduce the price further till they do get buyers.



2006 was the peak, it was mad to buy then. The reason to not buy now is obvious, the failing economy, lack of credit and the oversupply to name a few factors which have drove down demand.

Areas without oversupply are still falling in price, its everywhere. You are lucky you did not buy in 2006. And you will be mad to buy now, like catching a falling knife. This does not apply if you do not care about getting the best deal financially.

what i was saying is if a 4 bedroom detached is only worth 100k then what will a smaller townhouse be worth 30 or 40 grand, i do agree with you to a extent but i just think they is already great value out there now and in the coming months from people that are desperate to sell.

niallo27

smccarrick wrote: »

To be honest- I don't think people are saying 'don't buy' outright.
People are saying- don't buy unless you can afford the property if there is a significant rise in interest rates, expect asset appreciation, or expect to move in the medium term.

If you accept that there is a property tax coming in, water charges, a carbon tax- and other costs of ownership- such as mortgage interest rates- are already increasing (you can be certain other lenders are going to ape Permanent TSB as soon as the furore dies down- and ECB base rates *are* going to rise 3-3.5% to 'normal' levels, as the global financial crisis dies down). With the complete abolition of mortgage interest relief @ 7 years, and immediately for investors- this is yet another cost of ownership thats going through the roof.

In a climate of significant increases in the cost of ownership- with a simultaneous fall in incomes (for all income groups)- market forces will gradually determine house prices will return to levels of affordability- which means the cost would be ~35-40% of net income max.........

Use 2006 as 100 on an index. Factor in abolition of mortgage interest relief for those @ 7 years, no-overtime, increased PRSI, pension levies in the public sector, reduced allowances etc- the average person might be down ~40% net (if you still have a job!). If relative affordability were to stand still @ 40% of net income- where 40 was 'affordable' in 2006- the 2009 commensurate sum is 24. This reduction-is before interest rate increases have really begun to hit people........

People are not blindly advising that its a bad idea to buy at the moment- simply that people's personal circumstances are not likely to get better in the medium term- and the costs of ownership that people are accustomed to- are changing radically for the worse........

Thank you for your well detailed answer, although i do think 40% down on net is very extreme on income, but i have to rent anyway are we all screwed anyway, when do you think we will see these rock bottom prices, i just really am sick of renting, and we want to start a family and we dont want to do that in rented accommodation, but i dont want to put myself at risk either. well at least it easier to buy on the way down than on the way up

Kipperhell

smccarrick wrote: »

To be honest- I don't think people are saying 'don't buy' outright.
People are saying- don't buy unless you can afford the property if there is a significant rise in interest rates, expect asset appreciation, or expect to move in the medium term.

I don't see that as being either honest or true. People here are certainly saying don't buy because the house prices will continue to drop and why pay more now for something you buy for less later.

The other issues are mentioned but many are saying it is simply crazy to buy at the moment. Personally I would say if you are buying now you should go for property that has the best potential to recover and increase in the future and probably something you can add value to via an extension or modification.

subway

niallo27 wrote: »

what i was saying is if a 4 bedroom detached is only worth 100k then what will a smaller townhouse be worth 30 or 40 grand, i do agree with you to a extent but i just think they is already great value out there now and in the coming months from people that are desperate to sell.

small houses in overcrowded estates in the middle of nowhere will be demolished.
they quite simply will never sell for the very reason you are outlining.


for example, if the average second hand car costs 5000 - 3 year old focus or whatever is popular.
most people will buy the focus at 5k, its good value, meets their needs and they can afford the payments.

now, look down the road, theres an 18 year old fiesta, does all the same things (drives, doors, wheels, etc) and its only 200eu. but no one will ever buy it. it will eventually be scrapped after a few weeks of trying to sell it.

if people live in the country they want either village life or lots of space. they dont want rows and rows of the same house over and over. so, imo, the terraced house is an unsaleable product in rural ireland.

give it 5, maybe 10 years, when the houses are completley derelict, maybe squatted in by antisocial types and locals will be screaming for them to be torn down

The_Conductor

Kipperhell wrote: »

I don't see that as being either honest or true. People here are certainly saying don't buy because the house prices will continue to drop and why pay more now for something you buy for less later.

The other issues are mentioned but many are saying it is simply crazy to buy at the moment. Personally I would say if you are buying now you should go for property that has the best potential to recover and increase in the future and probably something you can add value to via an extension or modification.

Fair enough.

From my perspective- I genuinely think the government is going to have to make far more difficult decisions that are going to negatively impact everyone than they have done so to date.

We are 23 billion in the red- without any clear communication to the public on how we are going to see less troubled waters. Even the infamous McCarthy report only addresses ~4.5 billion in cuts (and thats if it were implemented in full).

So- we are pretty sure we have from a housing perspective-

• Abolition of mortgage interest relief (not just at the 7 year stage)
• Abolition of mortgage interest as an allowable expense for investors (which should have happened a long time ago tbh)
• Imposition of a gradiated property tax (could be 1% on first 150k, 1.25% on next 150k, 1.5% on next 100k and 2% on all valuations over 500k) (the tables that have been leaked thus far are along these lines)
• Water rates - we really need to get meters installed. If we have a blanket water tax- say 500 a year- you'll have people going out leaving the taps on just because they are angry and there is no implication associated with their usage levels.
• Interest rates- well spreads are already increasing, tracker products are no longer available, and ECB base rates are going to increase from 1% to ~4.5% (this is stated policy from the ECB- where normalisation of rates is considered to be 4.5%)
• NAMA- is being funded by the issue of 65 billion of government bonds at rates 2% above other Eurobonds- the bonds alone are going to cost an additional 4.2 billion a year in interest payments on our national debt (which in turn is trippling in size and the servicing of which will account for over 18% of all tax take this year- possibly raising to 25% next year.......)

I do not see what the issue is with living in a rented property- its the norm over most of the continent, the comments in this thread would only seem to show that the Irish attitude towards property ownership is alive and well.

I do not think there is an upside to property prices- or a recovery on the horizon. As government policy drove much of the irrational exuberance towards property in the 13 years from 1992 onwards- current government policy in combination with external factors- is playing an even harsher mind game with public sentiment these days (and that is totally ignoring the falls in real income for everyone other than those on social welfare).

If people want to buy property, are willing to accept that the likelyhood is their property is going to fall further in value, and that the costs of ownership are going to take a significant and longterm change for the worse- yet they find a house they can see themselves living in indefinitely, retiring in, has schools and amenities for kids etc- and are willing to accept that its a whole different ball game- then let them.

The biggest problem of all is people are going off and getting emotionally attached to a property- without being in full posession of the facts (and in many cases delibertly taking an ostrich approach- and putting their heads in the sand. It is not the case that we can ring Joe Duffy when the local council or corporation start installing water meters in the streets outside our properties- unless you can come up with another tax stream that is not cyclical in nature and has an equal chance of extracting the required blood from citizens- there is no point in marching.

The government have been spineless in the lack of communication they have had with the electorate. You should not need a degree in economics, work in policy formulation, or be scanning various sources for leaks from the government or civil servants to get a grasp of whats happening........ That is where we are at though........

If someone wants to buy and has done their homework and is buying in full knowledge of the train that is coming down the tracks at them- by all means let them. We do owe it to ourselves, and if we're feeling sufficiently civic minded, to others- to educate ourselves as much as we can do given the lack of readily available knowledge- about the oncoming train- how far down the tracks it is likely to get, how likely we are and when- to be able to reverse that train at some future stage.........

Our poor little country is in deep deep trouble, and is going to have a lot of harsh medicine dolled out to us, if we do not administer the medicine ourselves. To date- our Joe Duffy approach to any changes that might impact on anyone's lifestyle are almost laughable to neutral outsiders- even foreign economic commentaries from the likes of the Economist (in May) have difficulties in focusing a light in dark- because of the lack of any clear indication of what we are doing.

Yes- its a guessing game- but it really shouldn't be...........

Kipperhell

smccarrick wrote: »

So- we are pretty sure we have from a housing perspective-

That is a lot of speculation. My point was very simply that you weren't being honest and you were being disingenuous. Your further post illustrating the fact. I think you are singling out the property market for most of the tax revenues methods to raise tax. I don't agree with you and it simply because it is all speculative and you are talking as if it is fact no different from anybody insisting that house prices would continue to rise.

The fact you don't see why people don't like to rent in this country and how different countries mange their accommodation compared to ours is blinding you.

I have no interest in football so why anybody would pay €100s on a ticket to a game just doesn't make any sense to me you have the same lack of desire when it comes to property. It doesn't make you super right and claiming a moral high ground of civic duty is nonsense. You don't like the property market and think your view of how it works makes you right.

I don't want to live on the sea but I don't stand from the shore yelling at the boats telling them how the next wave is going to role.

ZYX

smccarrick wrote: »

Fair enough.



So- we are pretty sure we have from a housing perspective-

• Imposition of a gradiated property tax (could be 1% on first 150k, 1.25% on next 150k, 1.5% on next 100k and 2% on all valuations over 500k) (the tables that have been leaked thus far are along these lines)

I haven't heard these figures. Are you saying then that someone with a property worth say 1 million would have to pay €20,000 property tax a year. Or an average property worth 250,000 would pay about €4000
a year. That is way above figures I have seen quoted

D3PO

ZYX wrote: »

I haven't heard these figures. Are you saying then that someone with a property worth say 1 million would have to pay €20,000 property tax a year. Or an average property worth 250,000 would pay about €4000
a year. That is way above figures I have seen quoted

if that is what takes place the country will go into revolt. Besides affordability issues using those figures mooted a for a lot of people it would be a rick kick in the gonads.

I wont pay it and Im sure others will refuse to aswell. Those muppets already for over 22 grand in stamp duty off me as a FTB due to this inflated mess they caused the can go jump if they think Im going to subsidise them with another tax on my property

iguana

D3PO wrote: »

I wont pay it and Im sure others will refuse to aswell.

How will you not pay it? In the UK there were massive riots about Poll Tax, so they abolished and now we all pay council tax instead which is arguably even worse.

If the government decide to introduce a tax it will happen. They might introduce something more punitive than they initially want so they can "back down" in the face of public outrage. But ultimately if there is a certain figure that they know they want, people will have to pay it.

D3PO

iguana wrote: »

How will you not pay it? .

well im assuming the tax wont be taken directly from your salary so you will have to actually pay the tax. I see a lot of people refusing to pay.

anyway i dont see it happening. To do this will spell the end of a governing FF party for a long time.

furthermore Lenihan said live on newstalk this morning he sees little to no scope for any further taxes in the new budget and that savings will ahve to be made in expenditure. yes you can argue that little scope could mean anything but surely he isnt stupid enough to see this tax in.

carbon tax will happen but that will be it.