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Public sector could face 30% to 50% pay cuts if IMF got involved.

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  • 21-02-2009 9:30pm
    #1
    Run_to_da_hills
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,009 ✭✭✭✭


    Labour party conference told IMF may be called in..

    "It is possible the International Monetary Fund will be called in to sort out the current “real economic crisis” here and if it is called in it will seek public sector pay cuts of “between 30 and 50 per cent”, a leading economist has warned" :eek:

    If this is true there could be a lot more than 100,000 on the streets of Dublin.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0221/breaking27.htm


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    #2
    MG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 823 ✭✭✭MG


    This should not be news to anyone but for some reason the protesters don't seem to have copped this.

    The 100,000 need to understand that their behaviour makes it more likely that the IMF will come in.


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    #3
    Run_to_da_hills
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,009 ✭✭✭✭Run_to_da_hills


    MG wrote: »
    This should not be news to anyone but for some reason the protesters don't seem to have copped this.

    The 100,000 need to understand that their behaviour makes it more likely that the IMF will come in.
    As I have mentioned on another post, these are the guys with the axe.


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    #4
    MG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 823 ✭✭✭MG


    Those 100,000 people were actually giving a cead mile failte to the IMF


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    #5
    Mr. Presentable
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,496 ✭✭✭Mr. Presentable


    Run_to_da_hills wrote: »
    Labour party conference told IMF may be called in..

    "It is possible the International Monetary Fund will be called in to sort out the current “real economic crisis” here and if it is called in it will seek public sector pay cuts of “between 30 and 50 per cent”, a leading economist has warned" :eek:

    If this is true there could be a lot more than 100,000 on the streets of Dublin.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0221/breaking27.htm

    Told by whom?


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    #6
    hughs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 48 ✭hughs


    Run_to_da_hills wrote: »
    Labour party conference told IMF may be called in..

    "It is possible the International Monetary Fund will be called in to sort out the current “real economic crisis” here and if it is called in it will seek public sector pay cuts of “between 30 and 50 per cent”, a leading economist has warned" :eek:

    If this is true there could be a lot more than 100,000 on the streets of Dublin.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0221/breaking27.htm

    The real scary thing is that the 100,000 dont seem to realise that if the government dont sort things out the IMF will. Part of the problem is that the government need to come clean with how bad things are going to get and communicate this to the people.


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    #7
    Diogenes
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,701 ✭✭✭Diogenes


    hughs wrote: »
    The real scary thing is that the 100,000 dont seem to realise that if the government dont sort things out the IMF will..

    I think alot of the people marching don't particularly trust the same shower that got us into this, to get us out of this.


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    #8
    Diogenes
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,701 ✭✭✭Diogenes


    hughs wrote: »
    The real scary thing is that the 100,000 dont seem to realise that if the government dont sort things out the IMF will..

    I think alot of the people marching don't particularly trust the same shower that got us into this, to get us out of this.


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    #9
    bobbbb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 507 ✭✭✭bobbbb


    There is no sign of the IMF coming in. Thats just scaremonger talk.

    And if they did come in it would be far more likely that PAYE would go up to 60% - 70% than that the public sector take the brunt of the actions again.


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    #10
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,507 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    bobbbb wrote: »
    There is no sign of the IMF coming in. Thats just scaremonger talk.

    And if they did come in it would be far more likely that PAYE would go up to 60% - 70% than that the public sector take the brunt of the actions again.

    The IMF would do both - cuts and increase tax. The level of the budget deficit is truly frightening and there is no plan to plug the hole. The state can't realistically spend €50bn when it only takes in €37bn. It is also possible that as the recession deepens, these figures will widen further (more transfer payments in social welfare and less tax collected). To be honest, the problem is that our politicians dithered too much and fed the country a pack of lies. Now they are backtracking, but its too late.


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    #11
    bobbbb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 507 ✭✭✭bobbbb


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »
    The IMF would do both - cuts and increase tax. The level of the budget deficit is truly frightening and there is no plan to plug the hole. The state can't realistically spend €50bn when it only takes in €37bn. It is also possible that as the recession deepens, these figures will widen further (more transfer payments in social welfare and less tax collected). To be honest, the problem is that our politicians dithered too much and fed the country a pack of lies. Now they are backtracking, but its too late.


    Put a number on it then. What would you say the chances are in percentage terms of the IMF coming in and when?


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    #12
    Run_to_da_hills
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,009 ✭✭✭✭Run_to_da_hills


    The Public need to know:

    Who the IMF is.

    The true transparent state of the economy including toxic debts from "state banks".

    What are the powers and consequences if the IMF are called.

    The threshold in which the IMF would need to be called.


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    #13
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,507 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    bobbbb wrote: »
    Put a number on it then. What would you say the chances are in percentage terms of the IMF coming in and when?

    First of all when I said it's too late I meant for the government to take decisive action for spending cuts and didn't mean that the IMF coming in was inevitable.

    At a guess, I would say there is a 50-50 chance of the IMF or, more likely, the EU intervening at some stage this year or early next year. This is based mainly on my perception that the government is going to find it harder to get loans from the money markets in the coming months.


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    #14
    bobbbb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 507 ✭✭✭bobbbb


    I didnt notice who the OP was but now that i have it makes perfect sense.

    once i see run_to_da_hills posting i know its just paranoia for sure.

    My own opinion is that we are not in as bad a shape as is being made out at all. Things are bad but not critical. We have a long, long, long, long way to go before the IMF appear on the horizon. Id say 0%. Lets see who is right in a year or so.


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    #15
    hughs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 48 ✭hughs


    bobbbb wrote: »
    There is no sign of the IMF coming in. Thats just scaremonger talk.

    And if they did come in it would be far more likely that PAYE would go up to 60% - 70% than that the public sector take the brunt of the actions again.

    If we dont have huge pay cuts and increases in taxes then YES the IMF will be coming. I dont honestly expect it to get to this stage, as bad as our politicians are none of them will let it to get to this stage.


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    #16
    Run_to_da_hills
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,009 ✭✭✭✭Run_to_da_hills


    bobbbb wrote: »
    I didnt notice who the OP was but now that i have it makes perfect sense.

    once i see run_to_da_hills posting i know its just paranoia for sure.

    My own opinion is that we are not in as bad a shape as is being made out at all. Things are bad but not critical. We have a long, long, long, long way to go before the IMF appear on the horizon. Id say 0%. Lets see who is right in a year or so.
    Its the Irish Times quoted in the OP link, and not the Daily Mail. :P


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    #17
    bobbbb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 507 ✭✭✭bobbbb


    Run_to_da_hills wrote: »
    Its the Irish Times quoted in the OP link, and not the Daily Mail. :P

    To be more exact - Its The Irish Times quoting Dr Alan Ahearne, of NUI Galway. Just because he said something outrageous.

    If Roy Keane said that they would probably quote him too.


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    #18
    Yenwod
    Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭Yenwod


    hughs wrote: »
    The real scary thing is that the 100,000 dont seem to realise that if the government dont sort things out the IMF will. Part of the problem is that the government need to come clean with how bad things are going to get and communicate this to the people.
    Brilliant point. The government have to explain things. I'm not aware of any of them actually coming out and saying "x, y and z" in a very easy to understand, non political spin. Then maybe people would start to trust them a little more.

    At the moment I think the majority of people think every word that comes from their mouths is a lie unfortunately


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    #19
    Compak
    Registered Users Posts: 428 ✭✭Compak


    The IMF have stated they have no intentions of coming in.

    Obviously if the public service are idiotic enough to actually bring the country to its knees they would have no choice but perhaps a fierce warning from them on what they will do will be sufficient.

    Or perhaps they wont mind taking a 25% cut if "everyone takes it" -they have no idea at all.

    I personally believe it is scaremongering but needed to wake up the one minded aganda of the likes of impact.

    Also to temporarily nationalise the banks is an incredibly risky approach. Its effect on Irelands world credit status will be detrimental as well as on the Euro itself. I actually wonder if the ECB will allow it and how Ireland propose to cover 400billion worth of institutes.

    We all know they cant cover the guarantee but hopefully will not have to and if AIB and BOI can keep their losses to as predicted or even as bad as Goodbody predictions capital injections will be better with a faster recovery and reward.

    My own prediction is for the EU to scrap every state for itself and a temporary at least pulling together to prevent its collapse by one or two states.

    We would prob have Ireland nationalised by Germany through bonds if their own economy was not contracting as fast as ours


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    #20
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,500 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    bobbbb wrote: »
    I didnt notice who the OP was but now that i have it makes perfect sense.

    once i see run_to_da_hills posting i know its just paranoia for sure.

    :confused:


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    #21
    nice_guy80
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    the IMF is being used as the bogeyman in all of this

    there is no way they'd be called in unless things got really bad


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    #22
    AlekSmart
    Registered Users Posts: 14,005 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    as bad as our politicians are none of them will let it to get to this stage.

    This is the nub of the thing because our Politicians in general have turned out to be MUCH worse than even the most optimistic Political Party hack had feared.

    The very real fear is that some of the more highly placed members of this group will "let it get to this stage" as they continue to manouvere the country to suit the continuing needs of some well placed financiers.

    Thus far we have seen almost Zero Leadership coupled with serious amounts of disingenuous waffle,all designed to blur the reality.
    The worst part is that the electorate is by now totally baffled and suffering from even more traditional Irish boredom.


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



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    #23
    eoinbn
    Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭eoinbn


    hughs wrote: »
    If we dont have huge pay cuts and increases in taxes then YES the IMF will be coming. I dont honestly expect it to get to this stage, as bad as our politicians are none of them will let it to get to this stage.

    I have more faith in the politicans than the people. The government have annonunced €2B of the €20B adjustments we need and we already have had a number of protests. Maybe a doubling of the tax rates to ~40%/80%, which would still leave with a large defict, would wake people up.


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