Sunday Times Irish Property Price Guide 2009

Oracle

I'm not sure if this has been posted here already. The Sunday Times 2009 Irish Property Price Guide: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/system/topicRoot/Irish_property_price_guide_2009/

Quick links to price details for all areas (dated 25 January 2009): http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article5581687.ece

jetski

Fairly accurately sums up what ive been trying to get accross over the last couple of months....

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

Fairly accurately sums up what ive been trying to get accross over the last couple of months....

That:

Sunday Times wrote:

Property crisis has moved from slump to crash

or that:

Sunday Times wrote:

Our price guide reveals desperate state of the housing market and its negative effect on the value of homes all across Ireland

The idea that prices are at their bottom now is based on unfounded speculation, and the idea that prices will go up on average 5% in 2009 seems to be pure fantasy.

jetski

No your another one to miss my point.

Prices arent as low as they will go but wont drop much more and if you buy at the moment your likley to get more of a discount off the asking price than if you wait for the prices to decline naturally, youl also be seeing your 6 months or years rent technically added to the purchase price assuming you are renting but not only that but you might well not get the property that ticks all your boxes, i definitly think there will be a v style recovery of some description even if its a percent or five.

Freddie59

jetski wrote: »

No your another one to miss my point.

Prices arent as low as they will go but wont drop much more and if you buy at the moment your likley to get more of a discount off the asking price than if you wait for the prices to decline naturally, youl also be seeing your 6 months or years rent technically added to the purchase price assuming you are renting but not only that but you might well not get the property that ticks all your boxes, i definitly think there will be a v style recovery of some description even if its a percent or five.

Rubbish. And can you please explain what a 'v style recovery' is?

ANY POTENTIAL BUYERS IGNORE THE ABOVE COMMENTS!:D

And visit these sites and decide for yourself!

www.irishhometruths.com

www.thepropertypin.com

www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com

www.irishpropertywatch.com

There will be no recovery.

There are somewhere between 100,000 and 300,000 empty units.

The law of supply and demand will kick in.

Another half-arsed attempt to reinflate the property bubble, which has well and truly burst.

Freddie59

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The idea that prices are at their bottom now is based on unfounded speculation, and the idea that prices will go up on average 5% in 2009 seems to be pure fantasy.

Stick a -2 in front of that 5 and you'd be nearer the mark.

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

No your another one to miss my point.

Prices arent as low as they will go but wont drop much more

What is your reasoning behind this? Of course ultimately it comes down to us both saying that having looked at the available info and market trends you think prices won't drop further while I think that they will. But I still think that prices will fall further because a) they are still far in excess of historical norms of borrowing b) the country is still in recession and getting worse by the day and c) trends would suggest that a crashing market will overshoot and that a housing market will not recover until approx one year after the overall economy recovers.

jetski wrote: »

and if you buy at the moment your likley to get more of a discount off the asking price than if you wait for the prices to decline naturally,

I don't agree, the market as I see it has a lot further to fall but most vendors are refusing to drop their prices. Indeed, most EAs are straight up rejecting what I consider to be realistic offers but which they no doubt consider extreme low ball offers.

jetski wrote: »

youl also be seeing your 6 months or years rent technically added to the purchase price

Well if you buy now, you will see the 6 months or years interest technically added to the purchase price.

jetski wrote: »

you are renting but not only that but you might well not get the property that ticks all your boxes, i definitly think there will be a v style recovery of some description even if its a percent or five.

Well I suppose the one thing that is clear is that you at least are prepared to put your money where your mouth is as you have recently bought property. I for my part am also putting my money where my mouth is by not buying. Time will tell which of us is correct, but there is one thing that makes my position better - I have no risk of having a leveraged asset reduce in value. So apart from anything else, my way is the more cautious and sensible route at the moment.

johnnyskeleton

Freddie59 wrote: »

Stick a -2 in front of that 5 and you'd be nearer the mark.

Is that a typo? Do you mean -2 or -20?

EDIT: Sorry, I get you now. -25%.

Freddie59

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Is that a typo? Do you mean -2 or -20?

EDIT: Sorry, I get you now. -25%.

Would you agree Johnny?

jetski

V as in a graph showing prices dropping and then climbing.

@ johnny i do agree the economy is the big issue here, but there are so many packages being put together here and in the USA, i also agree your taking the safest bet here if we were betting but its not really about betting.

Ive said it to you before in previous posts economics change and ireland is a very different place than it was in the 70s and 80s its not going to be the way it was back then.

"Well if you buy now, you will see the 6 months or years interest technically added to the purchase price."

The difference being starting your mortgage repayments now, you then seeing a benifit to yourself rather than the money going into some landlords already fat wallet.

jetski

Freddie59 wrote: »

Would you agree Johnny?

Thats funny

anotherlostie

It's interesting to see some areas, e.g. D12, sinking like a stone, while D22 doesn't experience nearly as much of a downturn. I did wonder alright was this produced with the backing of the industry, to try and encourage people to dip their toes back into the market.

Bobeagleburger

jetski wrote: »

V as in a graph showing prices dropping and then climbing.

@ johnny i do agree the economy is the big issue here, but there are so many packages being put together here and in the USA, i also agree your taking the safest bet here if we were betting but its not really about betting.

Ive said it to you before in previous posts economics change and ireland is a very different place than it was in the 70s and 80s its not going to be the way it was back then.

"Well if you buy now, you will see the 6 months or years interest technically added to the purchase price."

The difference being starting your mortgage repayments now, you then seeing a benifit to yourself rather than the money going into some landlords already fat wallet.

you should admit you dont have a clue what you are talking/posting about.

House prices are nowhere near bottomed out, a 12 year old child could probably tell you that. The current economic crisis is/will be 10 times worse than the 80's. House prices probably wont hit bottom for a few years.

Theres new houses in Co.galway with 70k being knocked off them and still no takers. Why buy a house now for 300k for example when it could easily be 150k in 2/3 years time???

misleading posts like yours are amusing and ridiculous. Thanks for the laugh though

johnnyskeleton

Freddie59 wrote: »

Would you agree Johnny?

I disagree with you in the strongest possible terms Freddie. You're grossly underestimating the amount they would fall!

Seriously though, the market has become so fractured that overall stats are meaningless. I suspect that the ERSI/PTSB figure will be way less than 25%, but in terms of real prices I think a further drop of about this level is possible.

jetski wrote: »

@ johnny i do agree the economy is the big issue here, but there are so many packages being put together here and in the USA, i also agree your taking the safest bet here if we were betting but its not really about betting.

The thing is though, everyone is forced to take risks now. In the last few years buying property & putting money in a bank account were risk free. But now, everything you do carries a risk. Many people are buying gold in case we see hyperinflation which will destroy the value of cash, but equally gold carries risks. Everyone has to take a punt now, there is no safe option. What I'm doing is merely safer, as I see it, than buying property.

jetski wrote: »

Ive said it to you before in previous posts economics change and ireland is a very different place than it was in the 70s and 80s its not going to be the way it was back then.

So Ireland is different eh? Worse, in many ways. We seem to have gone from a low cost highly skilled workforce to a high cost incorrectly skilled workforce. FDI is going, possibly never to come back, and we don't have sufficient innovation in our own country to fix the country. What we have instead is much more private debt (which is slowly becoming public debt through Anglo & the like) an expensive public service (i'm not attacking the individuals just saying that it is costing the country too much), an international reputation as an economic black hole and a corrupt, lazy and incompetent government. Ireland is much worse now, because we are headed back to how we were in the 80s, but then we had the potential to attract investors and to innovate, but we squandered it, and it will be a long time before the world forgets the mess we've made for ourselves. Just before christmas I predicted, among other things, 12% unemployment by the end of 2009. If the unemployment rate is only 12% by the end of the year it will be a tremendous achievement. To be honest, unemployment looks set to breach 10% for Feb, and it is increasing at a scary pace.

jetski wrote: »

"Well if you buy now, you will see the 6 months or years interest technically added to the purchase price."

The difference being starting your mortgage repayments now, you then seeing a benifit to yourself rather than the money going into some landlords already fat wallet.

That's no more than sheer begrudery - you don't mind paying interest to the bank, but you resent paying the same or less to a landlord.

oceanclub

I think Jetski's quote on his profile says it all:

"Its (sic) hard being this good"

P.

jetski

rarnes1 wrote: »

you should admit you dont have a clue what you are talking/posting about.

House prices are nowhere near bottomed out, a 12 year old child could probably tell you that. The current economic crisis is/will be 10 times worse than the 80's. House prices probably wont hit bottom for a few years.

Theres new houses in Co.galway with 70k being knocked off them and still no takers. Why buy a house now for 300k for example when it could easily be 150k in 2/3 years time???

misleading posts like yours are amusing and ridiculous. Thanks for the laugh though

ive more or less said what has been said in the article in the times. your the one who hasnt a clue mate. its muppets like you who talk the economy down, if you have the money you can get an excelent deal on a house,that doesnt mean all house before you start jumping the gun. your making big statments there with your half price houses

jetski

oceanclub wrote: »

I think Jetski's quote on his profile says it all:

"Its (sic) hard being this good"

P.

oceanclub

jetski wrote: »

I'm sure you are confused, dear boy.

P.

jetski

yep me and you


if you dont like what i say, id like to hear what you have to say i dont see what your getting at?

Bobeagleburger

jetski wrote: »

ive more or less said what has been said in the article in the times. your the one who hasnt a clue mate. its muppets like you who talk the economy down, if you have the money you can get an excelent deal on a house,that doesnt mean all house before you start jumping the gun. your making big statments there with your half price houses

People like you who bought a house in the last 6 months or estate agents are trying to talk the market up when clearly its in freefall. Your posts are clueless.

Anyone who bought a house in the last while didnt do their homework and were taken to the cleaners imo. Prices will take 10/15 years at least to return to their peak, if they even do.

jetski

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

So Ireland is different eh? Worse, in many ways. We seem to have gone from a low cost highly skilled workforce to a high cost incorrectly skilled workforce. FDI is going, possibly never to come back, and we don't have sufficient innovation in our own country to fix the country. What we have instead is much more private debt (which is slowly becoming public debt through Anglo & the like) an expensive public service (i'm not attacking the individuals just saying that it is costing the country too much), an international reputation as an economic black hole and a corrupt, lazy and incompetent government. Ireland is much worse now, because we are headed back to how we were in the 80s, but then we had the potential to attract investors and to innovate, but we squandered it, and it will be a long time before the world forgets the mess we've made for ourselves. Just before christmas I predicted, among other things, 12% unemployment by the end of 2009. If the unemployment rate is only 12% by the end of the year it will be a tremendous achievement. To be honest, unemployment looks set to breach 10% for Feb, and it is increasing at a scary pace.




That's no more than sheer begrudery - you don't mind paying interest to the bank, but you resent paying the same or less to a landlord.

Theres millions of euro being injected into banks for proping up sme BOI got €250m alone

and yes i would resent paying over a grand a month to a land lord when it could be going towards the purchase of my own home, you have to pay interest on your mortage unless you know of another way?

thewing

Jetski,
Think you've spent too much time out at sea

Fundamentals of a property boom = Employment and increasing population

We are currently shedding jobs and not only are the recent economic migrants packing their bags, the irish are hitting the road too.

We had an oversupply in the market before these factors kicked in.

Throw in an international credit crunch whereby our banks won't give you a mortgage unless you have a huge depoist, a massive take home pay and are an undertaker or similar role with security and the dogs on the street can see that house prices are only going in one direction for the next 2 years at least, and that's down.

-25% is conservative if my estimation

Realism hasn't set in yet for a lot of people, but when it does, the slump in prices will accelerate sharply.

Sunday Times got this one wayyyyyyyyyyy wrong. Nobodies talking up an economy here, just facing facts. Shur the govt can't even secure all the money it needs to run the country for the rest of the year, how the hell are peopls gonna get cash to buy houses?

It's time to start making money by creating and selling goods, not selling each other houses at over-inflated prices.

jetski

rarnes1 wrote: »

People like you who bought a house in the last 6 months or estate agents are trying to talk the market up when clearly its in freefall. Your posts are clueless.

Anyone who bought a house in the last while didnt do their homework and were taken to the cleaners imo. Prices will take 10/15 years at least to return to their peak, if they even do.

Listen mate you havnt a breeze about me or what i payed for anything so get your facts right before you start talking ****e. did you even read the report the op linked to.

jetski

thewing wrote: »

Jetski,
Think you've spent too much time out at sea

Fundamentals of a property boom = Employment and increasing population

We are currently shedding jobs and not only are the recent economic migrants packing their bags, the irish are hitting the road too.

We had an oversupply in the market before these factors kicked in.

Throw in an international credit crunch whereby our banks won't give you a mortgage unless you have a huge depoist, a massive take home pay and are an undertaker or similar role with security and the dogs on the street can see that house prices are only going in one direction for the next 2 years at least, and that's down.

-25% is conservative if my estimation

Realism hasn't set in yet for a lot of people, but when it does, the slump in prices will accelerate sharply.

Sunday Times got this one wayyyyyyyyyyy wrong. Nobodies talking up an economy here, just facing facts. Shur the govt can't even secure all the money it needs to run the country for the rest of the year, how the hell are peopls gonna get cash to buy houses?

It's time to start making money by creating and selling goods, not selling each other houses at over-inflated prices.

Again im not talking about houses in general, im talking about a select few and i totally stand over that. 25% ontop of whats already been knocked off is rubbish.

Freddie59

jetski wrote: »

ive more or less said what has been said in the article in the times. your the one who hasnt a clue mate. its muppets like you who talk the economy down, if you have the money you can get an excelent deal on a house,that doesnt mean all house before you start jumping the gun. your making big statments there with your half price houses

No, my friend - you are indeed worthy of the title of The Clueless One!:D I've viewed a few houses in the past few weeks (conventional 3-bed semis in Waterford).

One gone from €292k to €245k in two months. Still can't sell.

One gone from €335k to €240k. Still can't sell.

One gone on at €265k in an area where the price WAS normally (and still is on most properties) €325k.

And so on.

The Banks are applying strict lending criteria. They're picking who they loan to very carefully. They're even classing jobs in retail as not reliable.

Some qualify for 92%. Some 85%. Some 80%.

And so on.

All along house prices were up in the air, with mortgages having to be upped to afford them. 'Sure you'll take in a lodger', etc.

People being loaned - in some instances - up to 7 or 10 times annual salary.

Now the prices have to fall to the available mortgages.

jetski - you can pimp this all you like (whatever your reasons are - maybe you're an EA or own a large portfolio which you can't dispose of?) but you won't change it.

Fact.

Freddie59

jetski wrote: »

25% ontop of whats already been knocked off is rubbish.

:rolleyes::D

Of course it is......you're right and everyone else is wrong.....NOT!!

oceanclub

jetski wrote: »

Theres millions of euro being injected into banks for proping up sme BOI got €250m alone

You do realise that any money given to the banks has already been swallowed up on loans that have been written off?

P.

thewing

jetski wrote: »

Again im not talking about houses in general, im talking about a select few and i totally stand over that. 25% ontop of whats already been knocked off is rubbish.

You should bottle that optimism and sell it, God knows, the population at large could do with it.

Freddie59

oceanclub wrote: »

You do realise that any money given to the banks has already been swallowed up on loans that have been written off?

P.

Too much jetskiing on DeNile........

Bobeagleburger

jetski wrote: »

Listen mate you havnt a breeze about me or what i payed for anything so get your facts right before you start talking ****e. did you even read the report the op linked to.

I'm just saying I bet my life you overpaid for a house recently and it hurts like hell like it would anyone I'd imagine.

I did read the link. Look we are all speculating here but I bet my estimations will be closer than yours. The market is crashing worst than ever before, its only the beginning and theres 30,000 people losing their jobs every month. Thats the reality.

Personally, I dont mind as there will be serious bargins to be had in a few years imo

johnnyskeleton

Jetski wrote:

Theres millions of euro being injected into banks for proping up sme BOI got €250m alone

As oceanclub says...

oceanclub wrote: »

You do realise that any money given to the banks has already been swallowed up on loans that have been written off?

P.

...and even if that were not the case, just because the banks have now set aside certain amounts for mortgages, doesn't in any way mean that they will actually lend out those amounts.

Jetski wrote:

and yes i would resent paying over a grand a month to a land lord when it could be going towards the purchase of my own home, you have to pay interest on your mortage unless you know of another way?

Look, if you pay €1k to a landlord each month or €1k interest to the bank, you are paying the exact same amount either way. Let's say you pay €1k interest and €1k off the principle on your mortgage, and the renter pays €1k rent and saves €1k. After 2 years, you will have €24k paid off your mortgage, and the renter will have €24k saved. The reduction in interest you receive will be more or less the same as the interest the renter gets on his €24k. But the thing is that if prices go down, the renter can now afford to put a large deposit on his house, while the equity you have built up (i.e. the €24k) has been wiped out. That is a risk I am not prepared to take. So unless one of two things happens, I think it is a very bad idea to buy at this point in time. The two things are: (1) you can buy a house at a price beyond which the property will never drop or (2) for whatever reason hyperinflation is just around the corner.