Sunday Times Irish Property Price Guide 2009

oceanclub

thewing wrote: »

You should bottle that optimism and sell it, God knows, the population at large could do with it.

€10 billion in Irish deposits have been withdrawn in the last 10 days:

http://www.politics.ie/economy/47634-scandal-sees-10bn-flood-out-country.html

The number of unemployed between Dec and Jan alone went up by 37,000:

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

The number of properties to rent and for sale is almost at a all-time high and rising again:

http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

But don't worry, everything is fine.

P.

The_Conductor

Guys- be civil towards one another- or face a ban from this forum.
I'm sorry for being blunt- you all know the rules- if you disagree with what another poster has posted- refute the post without attacking the poster, or suffer the consequences.

I'm not going to issue any further warnings on this thread.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

oceanclub

oceanclub wrote: »

You do realise that any money given to the banks has already been swallowed up on loans that have been written off?

P.

Just to expand on this:

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/02/22/my-plan-to-save-the-country

AIB -a bank with a chairman and chief executive who are scandalously still drawing salaries -admitted that its loss charge (ie its bad debts) for 2008 was €1.8 billion -o r 1.37 per cent of its loan book. This is up from a figure of €950 million estimated three months ago. The ‘mistake’ -the difference between the original bluff figure and last Thursday’s new estimate - was €850 million. Just to remind you, this represents 24 per cent of the bank’s recapitalisation of €3.5 billion announced two weeks ago. That means 24 per cent of the money -our money - poured in by the government has gone already! (How many A&E wards could we staff, or how many special needs teachers could we fund for our national school pupils, with this money?)

At this rate, AIB will have burned through all our cash in a matter of months just by sticking to the current rate of adjustments to its estimated bad debts. A few months ago, this column said that the bad debts for the whole banking system were likely to be €40 billion. This is 25 per cent of our GDP -just as it was in Japan during its 1990s bust.

P.

Murtinho

Saw this posted somewhere else, a new 4 bed in Wexford town, the EA's in the survey reckon they could get a buyer for 300k, same in a yrs time, yet a new 4 bed in Wexford town today has an asking price of 250k!
These surveys as surely supported by the filthy EA's.

The figures for Wexford seem very high! I know ppl that have sold houses for a lot less than quoted.

I see the figures are from EA's and what they feel they could sell a property for", EA's wouldnt lie would they?

For wexford
New 4-bed in town:
Jan 2008: €325,000
Jan 2009: €300,000
Jan 2010: €300,000

meanwhile this new detached(BER A rated)
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=405402
is asking price of 250k

So why are they asking for 250 when EA's reckon they could only get 300k for a 4 bed, and that will be the scenario next jan aswell.

This survey is a steaming pile of horse****e, designed to scaffold up prices a tad longer and should be taken with a few lorry loads of salt.

irishguy

Most of these indexes that are saying that house prices have dropped 16% - 18% from there peak are way off. As they a based on data that is 4-5 months old for mortgage drawdowns or on asking prices (which are way off). I have been viewing houses recently and have noticed a big increase in interest in potential buyers and offers too, but these are at realistic prices i.e. 40% off peak. A couple of estate agents have told me that there has been more activity in the first time buyer end of the market but only when the prices have been reduced (30-40%) and it seems to reflect what I am seeing.

If people dont agree with this then how much further do they think house prices will fall?

Bobeagleburger

irishguy wrote: »

Most of these indexes that are saying that house prices have dropped 16% - 18% from there peak are way off. As they a based on data that is 4-5 months old for mortgage drawdowns or on asking prices (which are way off). I have been viewing houses recently and have noticed a big increase in interest in potential buyers and offers too, but these are at realistic prices i.e. 40% off peak. A couple of estate agents have told me that there has been more activity in the first time buyer end of the market but only when the prices have been reduced (30-40%) and it seems to reflect what I am seeing.

If people dont agree with this then how much further do they think house prices will fall?

50-60% of peak imo

Senna

jetski wrote: »

i definitly think there will be a v style recovery of some description even if its a percent or five.

Ok thats your theory, even foreseeing no recovery and just a stable market, what leads you to believe this? What will happen with consumer confidence and the economy in general.

jetski wrote: »

The difference being starting your mortgage repayments now, you then seeing a benifit to yourself rather than the money going into some landlords already fat wallet.

Lower prices mean shorter terms of mortgages, you (any current buyer) may start paying it off earlier but larger drops in price mean people can go for 25 years and less, rather than the norm of 30-40years.

jetski wrote: »

ive more or less said what has been said in the article in the times. your the one who hasnt a clue mate. its muppets like you who talk the economy down,

Your about 6 months late with that argument, and even when that was said it was dismissed by anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of the economy (and housing market). The housing market stalled in mid 2006 without any outside influences. The recession has sped up the market fall, but the falls are a normal result of a housing bubble and the subsequence drop. Maybe you should read up on other property bubbles and then add a world recession to those.

jetski wrote: »

if you have the money you can get an excelent deal on a house,that doesnt mean all house before you start jumping the gun. your making big statments there with your half price houses

I posted on the propertypin about a house that was repossed in Donegal, was on the market for 375k. They put it on at 275k, then 225k, then 175k. It then sold for less than 150k (exact price was not told, but less than 150k was all he would say). Now you can say that its donegal and so doesn't count. But whither it be 100k and sold for 20k, percentages are the same and no area is 'safer'.

jetski wrote: »

Again im not talking about houses in general, im talking about a select few and i totally stand over that. 25% ontop of whats already been knocked off is rubbish.

Do you have any knowledge of the housing market, and i dont mean reading the property pages of the paper. I know what houses in my area sold for in the past and what the few sales are now. 25% of reduced prices is just normal. 15% is the normal accepted prices when the house is more realisticly priced and there are not too many of them. Ask an EA what price the house should be advertised at if they want to sell quickly, the answer is always around the €X + 15%, this is the market normal.


Also, if you bargain hard and get a 'good discount', then that is the market value of that house. Its not the market value - the discount. Jetski in all honestly, do you really think you could sell that house you bought for a profit now? And from your posts i believe you didn't get such a great deal if you think 25% of a reduced price is unreasonable.

spockety

I think there will always be some movement at every price point. The problem is there are not enough buyers at the current price point to make the market function normally. It's kinda like a reworked musical chairs.

Let's say the entire market is 20 houses. And those 20 houses are all asking 500 grand each. And let's say there are 20 people out there who want to buy a house, but only 2 of them are willing to pay 500 grand. So they buy. Now there are 18 houses on the market at 500k, but no willing buyers. So they drop their asking price to 450k. Now there are another 2 people who are interested in buying at 450k, so they take them off their hands. So the remaining 16 properties still at 450k but with no buyers willing to spend that much have to drop to 400k.. and so on.

Sure there might be some transactions going on, but the market is still falling, and the homeowners left standing when the proverbial music stops in the 'current round' of buying are left standing in a non-existant market until they drop their own prices again, and hope they get bought when the music starts up again.

So as a seller, you have to be ahead of the curve. Your property has to be the cheapest on the market for it's type.
As a buyer, you have to ask yourself if you're willing to dive in when the music stops in this particular round of the property market musical chairs, or are you gonna wait until the next round?

Saskia

Oracle wrote: »

I'm not sure if this has been posted here already. The Sunday Times 2009 Irish Property Price Guide: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/system/topicRoot/Irish_property_price_guide_2009/

Quick links to price details for all areas (dated 25 January 2009): http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article5581687.ece

North Dublin

New 3-bed semi:

Jan 2008: €470,000

Jan 2009: €390,000

Jan 2010: €350,000

Try 290k for the above and you're closer.