Labour-Sinn Fein Coalition: Gaining Traction

Cantab.

Is a Labour-Sinn Fein government a real alternative?

Or what about FG/Independents? Or is choosing between FF and FG like choosing between tweedledum and tweedledee?

I want to see real change in Ireland. Not more of the same old.

Diogenes

Cantab. wrote: »

Is a Labour-Sinn Fein government a real alternative?

Or what about FG/Independents? Or is choosing between FF and FG like choosing between tweedledum and tweedledee?

I want to see real change in Ireland. Not more of the same old.

Yeah the problem is SF are going to lose votes in the next GE. SF want the coalition Labour will probably be able to form a govt without them.

Pride Fighter

Diogenes wrote: »

Yeah the problem is SF are going to lose votes in the next GE. SF want the coalition Labour will probably be able to form a govt without them.

I dont see how SF will lose votes, they will gain at least 4 seats IMO, Crowe in Tallaght, Mary Lou in Dublin Central and in the 2 Donegal constituencies.

Pride Fighter

Cantab. wrote: »

Is a Labour-Sinn Fein government a real alternative?

Or what about FG/Independents? Or is choosing between FF and FG like choosing between tweedledum and tweedledee?

I want to see real change in Ireland. Not more of the same old.

In my opinion this is the best possible election result for a grand left alliance.

Labour 45 seats
SF 10 seats
GP 7 seats
SP 2 seats
PBP 2 seats
Independents 3 seats

That is only 69 seats and that is me being very generous to the Greens. The possibility of a grand left coalition will never happen IMO. Labour wont win 45 seats, they will win 30-35 and Fine Gael win win abou 65. That will be the next government IMO. I dont want that, I'd love a grand left coalition, realistically it will never happen.

Duiske

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I dont see how SF will lose votes, they will gain at least 4 seats IMO, Crowe in Tallaght, Mary Lou in Dublin Central and in the 2 Donegal constituencies.

I think the smaller parties, Sinn Fein and the Greens may well suffer at the next election. Not because of anything thats gone on since the last election, but purely because people are genuinely concerned about the future, and its going to come down to who they feel can get us out of this mess.

Time Magazine

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Labour wont win 45 seats, they will win 30-35

45 seats for Labour puts you in the "quite mad" category. Even 35 is in the "really pushing it" league.

Pride Fighter

The Economist wrote: »

45 seats for Labour puts you in the "quite mad" category. Even 35 is in the "really pushing it" league.

I agree 45 seats is pushing it quite a bit, I was merely posting a potential maximum based on their recent good form in the opinion polls. I think low 30's is achievable, especially if they run running mates to many of their candidates in the Dublin constituencies.

Time Magazine

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I think low 30's is achievable, especially if they run running mates to many of their candidates in the Dublin constituencies.

I would be slow to accept that there are more than a small handful of constituencies where Labour have the support to gain two seats, even in a five-seater.

Diogenes

Pride Fighter wrote: »

In my opinion this is the best possible election result for a grand left alliance.

Labour 45 seats
SF 10 seats
GP 7 seats
SP 2 seats
PBP 2 seats
Independents 3 seats

That is only 69 seats and that is me being very generous to the Greens. The possibility of a grand left coalition will never happen IMO. Labour wont win 45 seats, they will win 30-35 and Fine Gael win win abou 65. That will be the next government IMO. I dont want that, I'd love a grand left coalition, realistically it will never happen.

Over generous? You've no idea of the sense of disappointment in the Greens among it's own power base.

As to SF doubling it's seats and the SWP getting two (No not people before profit, call a spade a bloody spade) well thats just hilarious.

Both groups are strong on rhetoric, but as to actual policies? Please. Adam's performance during the last election debates was shambolic at best, but when it came to the economy he resembled a bumbling transition year student during his first debate. SF's actual economy polices are non existent.

if you look at SF's economic policies, there's lots of "We need to build" "We should have", but little praticalities as to how this will be funded. I mean an "all Ireland economy". Yup now's the time for us to reach into our pocket and start paying for the economic black hole that is the 6 counties.

Pride Fighter

Diogenes wrote: »

As to SF doubling it's seats and the SWP getting two (No not people before profit, call a spade a bloody spade) well thats just hilarious.

How many votes did Richard Boyd Barrett get in Dun Laoghaire? Also in Dublin South Central Brid Smith and Joan Collins got 2,500 votes each. Next election one of them is going to step aside and that candidate will have at least 4,000 votes before transfers, those are the 2 seats they will win.

Diogenes wrote: »

Both groups are strong on rhetoric, but as to actual policies? Please. Adam's performance during the last election debates was shambolic at best, but when it came to the economy he resembled a bumbling transition year student during his first debate. SF's actual economy polices are non existent.

if you look at SF's economic policies, there's lots of "We need to build" "We should have", but little praticalities as to how this will be funded. I mean an "all Ireland economy". Yup now's the time for us to reach into our pocket and start paying for the economic black hole that is the 6 counties.

I fully agree SF are an absolute mess. They have no policies, they are a bit like Fine Gael in that regard.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Diogenes

Pride Fighter wrote: »

How many votes did Richard Boyd Barrett get in Dun Laoghaire? Also in Dublin South Central Brid Smith and Joan Collins got 2,500 votes each. Next election one of them is going to step aside and that candidate will have at least 4,000 votes before transfers, those are the 2 seats they will win.

Yeah, thats just laughable logic, it assumes their support is static or rising.

I fully agree SF are an absolute mess. They have no policies, they are a bit like Fine Gael in that regard.

They are a bit unlike FG in the way they haven't got widespread support across the country.

dave-higgz

Cantab. wrote: »

Or is choosing between FF and FG like choosing between tweedledum and tweedledee?

Well let's be fair. FG don't agree with FF on anything and I mean everything!

MG

No chance of this. The recent labour bounce is down to disillusioned public sector workers who would rather take a pay cut than do business with SF

Diogenes

Pride Fighter wrote: »

How many votes did Richard Boyd Barrett get in Dun Laoghaire?

I can remember similar rhetoric when "Globalise Resistance" or the "Irish Anti War Movement" were the preferred fronts for the SWP, the most recently comparable sized demonstrations on the streets of Dublin were anti Capitalist and anti war. I remember drinking with senior SWP party members post one of the major anti Iraq demos and they were certain they would pick up a couple of seats in the next GE. Well lets see how history repeats itself.

LordSutch

It'ill be very interesting to see how Mary Lou does in the Euro's, only three seats with her living on a knife edge, and if she fails . . . I wont shed any tears, cos the woman is full of rhetoric & not much else )

Sinn Fein's only ticket in the next election is to hitch a ride with somebody (anybody), and the Shinners now see Labour as the only way to get through the electoral turnstiles, I just hope and pray that Irish labour wont be duped into doing business with SF.

Bobeagleburger

Diogenes wrote: »

Yeah the problem is SF are going to lose votes in the next GE. SF want the coalition Labour will probably be able to form a govt without them.

I would be suprised if SF were not to gain seats in the next GE tbh

mike65

What traction? the use of that word suggests something is actualy happening. Nothing is happening.

Diogenes

rarnes1 wrote: »

I would be suprised if SF were not to gain seats in the next GE tbh

Y'know unless you back up your opinion with a coherent argument or some facts it just looks like baseless rhetoric, and therefore resembles SF's position.

Bobeagleburger

Diogenes wrote: »

Y'know unless you back up your opinion with a coherent argument or some facts it just looks like baseless rhetoric, and therefore resembles SF's position.

Apologies Sir.

Fianna Fail will lose plenty of seats in the next GE election barring a miracle. The Greens will lose seats imo as they will suffer from being in Gov with FF. Where will these votes go? Labour and FG will take a lot of these seats but Sinn Fein imo will get a lot more votes from people who just will not vote FG or labour and have lost faith in our Gov.

SF did get plenty of first pref votes last time out, 50,000 more than Greens so they have plenty of support already.

Paddy Power have a bet on their site on how many seats they will win in next GE. 9/10 seats is currently 5/2 favourite;)

is_that_so

Seeing as this is the third thread in a couple of days I guess some people live in hope. Some of that hope is predicated on the assumption that FF will melt down and FG will not gain from it.

TBH the maths do not add up at all. Labour in the heady days of the Spring tide could only manage 33 seats. Even they themselves see 30 as the limit of their expectations. SF have 4 seats and apart from a couple of possibilities would do very well to get beyond 8 never mind 10 seats.

5 of the Green TDs came in last and a couple of those did not even reach the quota so their seats could come down. As for Independents well Finian McGrath may find himself under pressure, Bev is now FF, Joe Behan will plough his own furrow and that oul' codger in Kerry may not run again.

So far we might have (really optimistic at best)
SF 8-10 (at a stretch)
Greens 2-4 (this is certainly realistic)
Labour 25-30
Independents 3-7 (Joe Higgins likely to be back)

At most you would get 50 seats from this coalition. With FF expected to lose somewhere in the order of 40 seats, that total could conceivably give FG 20+ seats. On that basis FG/Labour is the only game in town no matter how much people wish it otherwise.

SF also have a problem with leadership. Adams , in front of his own constituents, always does well. When he steps out and tries to talk about the real world he sounds like someone who hasn't a clue. The troubles for many people are gone and SF are just another party in the Assembly (when it can be bothered to sit). As I've posted elsewhere, the SF message is very stale and nothing that has come out of them lately inspires in any way.

is_that_so

rarnes1 wrote: »

SF did get plenty of first pref votes last time out, 50,000 more than Greens so they have plenty of support already.

Yet they ended up with less seats, although that had more to do with an inept campaign. SF need lots of first preference votes as many people will not give them a vote lower down the list, unlike the Greens, who have tended to pick up later preferences. This meant that the Greens would have made progress whereas the SF candidates were left in hope that they might pick up enough transfers to hang on for the last seat. One feature that will be key in the next election is a very specific plan to get us out of this. SF have been really poor on that to date and there is no evidence that they will get any better at it.

ionix5891

any party bonding with SF will never see my vote again

Diogenes

rarnes1 wrote: »

Apologies Sir.

Fianna Fail will lose plenty of seats in the next GE election barring a miracle. The Greens will lose seats imo as they will suffer from being in Gov with FF. Where will these votes go? Labour and FG will take a lot of these seats but Sinn Fein imo will get a lot more votes from people who just will not vote FG or labour and have lost faith in our Gov.

I'm sorry what? You're suggesting that people who vote for FF are going to leap frog FG and labour? On what basis? How do you think people who vote for a conservative centre right party, are going to jump the political spectrum for a left(ish) party, while bypassing a conservative centre left party, and a liberal party.

It's bit like suggesting disillusioned US republicans would not bother voting for Obama, but instead cast their votes for the communist party.

SF did get plenty of first pref votes last time out, 50,000 more than Greens so they have plenty of support already.

First preference votes can often just been seen a token support for a candidate you don't want but want to be seen to give token support to.

Paddy Power have a bet on their site on how many seats they will win in next GE. 9/10 seats is currently 5/2 favourite;)

Yes because Paddy Power are polling company I get my stats from. This would be the same Paddy Power who had to pay out to Mary Harney in 2002, after they claimed the PDs would lose seats when they in fact gained seats?

turgon

I would like to see this coalition in the long term because it would put an end to the FF / FG shuffle of every election, and would place Labour to become a major party with some actual policies.

But the maths are as tenuous as Anglos balance book.

spareman

ionix5891 wrote: »

any party bonding with SF will never see my vote again

why?

Daithinski

A Sinn Fein / Labour coalition would rock.

I'd like to see the look on the faces of all the FF cronies if this happened.:D

irish_bob

in a country where the majority vote based on who thier parents , grand parents and so on vote for , thier is no way labour can get over 40 seats

Liam Byrne

Interesting to read about Gerry Adams' Ard Fheis speech in the paper today.....apparently he says that dodgy banking goings-on should be treated as serious crimes (I actually agree with him) and that all crime should be dealt with and punished....

Yup, "all" crime.

So I'd support him, right ? WRONG!

The problem is that in the not-too-distant past his party used to rewrite the definition of a crime to suit themselves, and it didn't reflect either me or the actual legislation of this country.

So I'm with ionix above; SF can join FF in the sense that any party that joins a coalition with either of them can say goodbye to my vote.

HydeRoad

Ask first, where Sinn Féin party funding comes from.

Then make your choice.

Liam Byrne

HydeRoad wrote: »

Ask first, where Sinn Féin party funding comes from.

Then make your choice.

There's at least one other party you could say that about, HR.....things like dodgy finances don't seem to bother a huge proportion of dimwits with voting cards in this country.....