Anglo Irish takeover - big business closing ranks

andrewdeerpark

From today's news

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0227/anglo.html

"A consortium of Irish and foreign investors has been in discussions with Government and the National Treasury Management Agency about taking a majority shareholding in Anglo Irish Bank and investing €5bn in the financial institution."

This is big business and the government wanting to close the Anglo issue in secrecy, too many dirty lies of how the smug business elite carved up the celtic tiger for themselves will come out if Anglo stays public. Not exactly what David McWilliams had in mind when calling in the diaspora for help..

Allied Irish Bank and BOI; far stronger banks, can be bought for pittance so why pick Anglo?

This should not be allowed happen Anglo's dirty laundry needs to be washed in public!

Is this the final act of the great Anglo con.

Compak

How in gods name can this happen when AIB and BOI could easily be bough together for much cheaper.

woodseb

Compak wrote: »

How in gods name can this happen when AIB and BOI could easily be bough together for much cheaper.

i'm very sceptical of this too but it's wrong to look at it like they are paying 5bln for it.....if it happened the government would let it go for next to nothing, but it would need a large injection of capital after it to make it viable

similary with AIB and BOI, buying it at current market prices is not the full story, anybody acquiring it would need to inject capital

Compak

This is true, but the consortium must be mad if they think they would need to put less capital into anglo over AIB.

5 billion investment would see AIB through no bother as well as pay governemnt the 1.5 billion to reduce to 15% equity instead of 25%. Also an agreement would be easily reached to get rid of that 15%.

Government would be so grateful to get rid of this parasite they would still keep their guarantee and I would say a joint bad debt cover.

I cant believe that story for a second

Zynks

Compak wrote: »

How in gods name can this happen when AIB and BOI could easily be bough together for much cheaper.

The current share value for AIB and BoI and their capitalisation might suggest so, but it does not mean that most shareholders would jump at selling at that price if there were attempts for a hostile takeover.

However, Anglo is a hot potato that may be sold for political reasons, thus a more realistic and easier target.

Dotsie~tmp

Maybe the badness of anglos load book has been overdone a bit and they know it. Its seems that there is little exposure to the toxic stuff present in the UK and US. The value of that loan book is depressed but it isnt worthless and values will recover to some sustainable level eventually.

Compak

Zynks wrote: »

The current share value for AIB and BoI and their capitalisation might suggest so, but it does not mean that most shareholders would jump at selling at that price if there were attempts for a hostile takeover.

However, Anglo is a hot potato that may be sold for political reasons, thus a more realistic and easier target.

Yes but AIB is under 400million with dreadful sentiment. 4 billion is a ten times return. It would not be blocked in anyway. 3 billion would prob not be blocked. Also a nice stake is easily built on the sly with current selling

Governemnt just have to come out and say may consider nationalisation and its an easy buy for under 2 billion. That 2 billion is covered but M&T and Polish holdings so bank is free so they just need to worry about bad debt with joint gov venture

Compak

Dotsie~tmp wrote: »

Maybe the badness of anglos load book has been overdone a bit and they know it. Its seems that there is little exposure to the toxic stuff present in the UK and US. The value of that loan book is depressed but it isnt worthless and values will recover to some sustainable level eventually.

This is def true in general though I wonder for anglo, they aeem in a league of their own

andrewdeerpark

"A consortium of Irish and foreign investors"

This is not another bank, just another bunch of businessmen hardly a change from the past!?

Would it not be better for Anglo to stay in state control for the foreseeable future and use the outcome of any investigations as a template of how not to run the remaining banks.

If this takeover happens client confidentiality will hamper disclosure of suspect practices (golden circle loans) and big business will close ranks around each other.

Plus worst-case scenario is this happening after a massive asset value write-down financed by the taxpayer.

Or am I just paranoid...

woodseb

Compak wrote: »

Yes but AIB is under 400million with dreadful sentiment. 4 billion is a ten times return. It would not be blocked in anyway. 3 billion would prob not be blocked. Also a nice stake is easily built on the sly with current selling

there won't be any return like that for shareholders. If it were to happen the bank would be taken private at close to current market prices and then the investors would pump the billions into it.

Compak

No it wouldnt. Because you announce that private investors are interested and see what happens.

The share price is supressed due to a turnover of about 30% of shares. 70% or so are holding long and will not give up.
You think people can be feared into selling AIB for less than the profit it will report Monday.

Sure would be better for sp to let governemnt own 75%

johnnyskeleton

andrewdeerpark wrote: »

From today's news

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0227/anglo.html

"A consortium of Irish and foreign investors has been in discussions with Government and the National Treasury Management Agency about taking a majority shareholding in Anglo Irish Bank and investing €5bn in the financial institution."

This is big business and the government wanting to close the Anglo issue in secrecy, too many dirty lies of how the smug business elite carved up the celtic tiger for themselves will come out if Anglo stays public. Not exactly what David McWilliams had in mind when calling in the diaspora for help..

Allied Irish Bank and BOI; far stronger banks, can be bought for pittance so why pick Anglo?

This should not be allowed happen Anglo's dirty laundry needs to be washed in public!

Is this the final act of the great Anglo con.

It does sound crazy wrt to amount of bad debit in Anglo. However, If they were offering to buy Anglo from the Irish government for €5bn cash (not loans from Anglo) and were to underwrite the debts of Anglo up to say, €30bn, I think the government should bite their hands off.

Forget knowing what happened, no one will be convicted anyway. I'd rather not know and see Anglo dissappear from the state's books rather than see an additional €25-40bn debt lumped onto the national debt.

SkepticOne

Why don't they snap up Bank of Ireland with a total market capitalisation of a mere 194 million. That's a typical overdraft from Anglo. They could pop into Anglo, borrow say 250 million, buy up all the shares of BOI and still have a few million left over to buy a van.

old boy

propely more smoke and mirrors

Sand

This is big business and the government wanting to close the Anglo issue in secrecy, too many dirty lies of how the smug business elite carved up the celtic tiger for themselves will come out if Anglo stays public. Not exactly what David McWilliams had in mind when calling in the diaspora for help..

This is more than likely the motivation. Fianna Fail & their cronies calling in favours. The fallout from Anglo Irish so far is crippling them, and the investigators have barely scratched the surface.