Heavy Snow risk Tuesday evening and night

darkman2

Right im calling it. Heavy Rain will turn to Snow during Tuesday. Tuesday evening looks, quite frankly, attrocious. Looking at the 850 charts there is NO WAY this is not going to turn to snow at all levels.







We have not seen this sort of situation for many years. This is an end of Febuary 2001 type event.


This is not a high ground only event - this will be at all levels. Possibly the East will see a delay till late Tuesday evening but plenty of snow elsewhere by then.

The 528 line is very close to the fronts here - unusually so.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif

nacho libre

a couple of questions:
how long do you think this event will be? are the ground temperatures too high for accumulations to occur at lower levels?

Sierra Oscar

And there was me thinking the snow risk for this winter/spring was over.;)

nacho libre

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

And there was me thinking the snow risk for this winter/spring was over.;)

as a forecaster said in a radio broadcast several weeks ago "You can never turn your back on snow "

Mike65 must be looking forward to this week's weather:P

darkman2

nacho libre wrote: »

a couple of questions:
how long do you think this event will be? are the ground temperatures too high for accumulations to occur at lower levels?

Currently, on the charts, it looks like a good few hours in the west and midlands. 4 to 6 hours at least. Probrably shorter further East. Maybe 2 or 3 hours of snow potential here. It could be after dark before it reaches the East - but in your location you should have had a good few cm's by then. Not saying there will be 10 or 15cm's in your location (though you never know!) but keep an eye on the forcast and this thread obviously;)
As for ground temps - it depends on how heavy and long the snow is. Snow will settle anywhere if it's heavy enough.

obrienmichael

Going by the farming forcast today it is to get very stormy on Tuesday with heavy wintry showers for Tuesday night, Wednesday,Thursday,and Friday. Gerry Murphy said the showers will turn to snow mostly at night time and that they will be most frequent in the north and west of the country. He also said there will be a significant wind chill making it feel bitterly cold.

Redsunset

brave man darkman2 but i like your optimism.not totally convinced myself yet but feck it i'll jump on the train and enjoy the ride.your right strong risk lets see what happens.here a snow chart i posted on the turning colder thread,don't know if you seen it.wouldn't it be great.prob be all gone later ha:D

Redsunset

new gfs rollin out HOORAY!!!!! its an upgrade lower 850 temps over us quicker

sorella

Here we go again?

Ah well...

darkman2

The 12:00 run is quite good alright. One down point is that the precip clears quicker but it's still the same result. The rain turning to snow in most areas. Dew points drop quickly aswell through the day. Temperatures a bit marginal till the evening. Except in the west - could be sleety here as early as Tuesday morning.

Redsunset

darkman2 wrote: »

The 12:00 run is quite good alright. One down point is that the precip clears quicker but it's still the same result. The rain turning to snow in most areas. Dew points drop quickly aswell through the day. Temperatures a bit marginal till the evening. Except in the west - could be sleety here as early as Tuesday morning.

your right.ah tomorrow should be nearly spot on as what to really expect from this

Trotter

Sunglasses check... Shorts.. Check!... Factor 15.. Check!.. Rainjacket.. Check!

Hi from Waterford. Land of no snow.

jaffa20

Please say there will be no snow in wicklow! I'm terrified of driving it in.

Redsunset

jaffa20 wrote: »

Please say there will be no snow in wicklow! I'm terrified of driving it in.

there will be no snow in wicklow there i said it,yeah right you'll prob get the most if your high up

Gonzo

dont think thre will be anything in wicklow except on high ground. Most of the East will see very little if anything at all from this. (some wet snow falling on wet ground is about the most that will happen here I think)

Redsunset

heres hoping this chart don't change,it will of course:D

GFS is hopeless in determining Easterly set ups.
However this is from the West.
Still,it's a very unreliable model compared to the ECM...whatever has been happening to it lately.

The last ECM showed a very marginal set up for the frontal band.
The Iceland MO site is rather confusing as it shows the one colour scheme for -5c and 0c 850 temps.
There is a Big difference in that range and it doesnt give access to the Dublin ensemble.Therefore it's useless for the amatuer to determine anything definite from it.

You'd need -8 850's at a minimum for stuff from the Atlantic to give a high chance of snow at sea level.
Do we have that ? No

So thats 1 out of the 3 missing making this iffy.
The other thing you need is 528 dam or lower-this is chasing the front so iffy there too as it's not in or in front of it.

The other thing that makes this iffy is a heck of a lot of marine atlantic influence.

So confidence from me is low on this one folks.
Very low.
Put it to you this way-if you are expecting a short re run of the sunday snow from the first week of february[except in reverse ie short rain then snow instead of snow then short rain] and then the snow showers from the previous week-forget it tbh.

What comes in the rain bands wake-much higher confidence of wintry stuff there but a repeat of early february? I doubt it.

Redsunset

rain rain and more rain.thats what met eireann are calling it.im callin it backedge wintryness.very wet miserable day ahead:mad:

Redsunset

still holdin up on charts tho

kerry1960

Meh , some snow/sleet showers from tuesday night onwards ,always a chance of a temporary night time covering for some of us , just looks a typical N/Westerly to me , anyway tbh im not really excited about another 3 days of cold rain/wet snow showers, roll on spring ( shakes fist at the moon).

kerry1960

And before a lynch mob arrives at my cave the above statement was made tongue firmly in cheek

kerry1960

Have to admit this is some chart folks , hope it comes off .

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Kennedy_International

new york is the place to be folks tonight and tomorrow

now theres a forecast.
Interesting to see them with more faith than usual in the gfs.

Quid pro quo agent darling..quid pro quo!

kerry1960

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Kennedy_International

new york is the place to be folks tonight and tomorrow

now theres a forecast.
Interesting to see them with more faith than usual in the gfs.

Quid pro quo agent darling..quid pro quo!

Am i missing something here , whats your point .

passive

Oh dear... How heavy? I've a friend due to be coming through Dublin Airport, crashing at mine and flying out in the morning...

nacho libre

kerry1960 wrote: »

Am i missing something here , whats your point .

i'm guessing his point is New York is the place to be if you are a snow lover and love to see significant accumulations occur.

@kerry

Somewhere between a foot and two feet of snow is expected at jfk today so that is enough even to close that airport.

@ passive-The plane will be in Dublin I'd imagine in time for the flight out but whether it will be allowed out or allowed land at jfk will depend on whether that airport stays open.

@kerry 1690 I was also suggesting that the gfs might be going through a more accurate phase at the moment given NOAA are liking it this week.

I still doubt there will be snow at sea level from the front but your location should see snow this week given your height and proximity to even heighter ground.

Edit: currently snowing heavily in Times square

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

peasant

What about the rest of the week?

Metcheck (I know, I know :rolleyes:) currently insists that Wednesday and indeed Thursday very much so are going to be snow days here in Sligo.

EDIT: cancel that ...model just updated and downgraded itself massively

Mr Benevolent

Not a friggin' hope lads... let it go :P More chance of thunderstorms imo.
Peasant, did you get any snow up there in early Feb?

(Just checked Meteoalarm - nuffin' worth getting excited about.)

arctictree

TBH - the GFS seems good for widespread snow on Wednesday. Max temps of 2 or 3c and lots of precip around.

Should have a covering at my location anyway.

A

peasant

Confab wrote: »

Peasant, did you get any snow up there in early Feb?

For half a day on a Sunday