HSP season 5

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ocallagh

negreanu is so bad it's horrible/embarrassing to watch. I almost got sick when he asked to reload.

zigmund not great either - Eli is lol but at least he gives himself a chance by betting big. Doyle is ridiculously predictable. Eastgate, Benyamine and Greenstein are playing ok. Durr is on another planet. Run that game for a week and he'd have all the money

meathman 007

^^ The JJ hand was marginal at best but not horrible considering it was against Degenamine. His table demeaner is pretty awful though. The way he acted on the turn when he had a pair of aces on the 4 straight board was laughable

Maybe ive just watched too much tv poker and have become fed up of it... but does anyone else get a weird vibe off the show, almost like they are not playing for real money most of the time. The format has become pretty boring as well and you can tell that Benza and Kaplan are going through the motions in the commentary

DeadMoney

meathman 007 wrote: »

^^ The JJ hand was marginal at best but not horrible considering it was against Degenamine. His table demeaner is pretty awful though. The way he acted on the turn when he had a pair of aces on the 4 straight board was laughable

Maybe ive just watched too much tv poker and have become fed up of it... but does anyone else get a weird vibe off the show, almost like they are not playing for real money most of the time. The format has become pretty boring as well and you can tell that Benza and Kaplan are going through the motions in the commentary

I think HSP has become quite a grim show to watch to be honest. Don't get me wrong, I still love tuning in but if you look at the show's regs like Doyle, Barry G, and negranu, they really seem quite beaten up by the last few years. In season 1 Negranu was the Durrrr of the time and bought in for $1m running over everybody. His heater has obviously cooled off since then and now he seems to be moving in to the Barry Greenstein stage. Poor old Benyemine probably only has about 10% oh himself.

I think the show really needs some new blood. I love the way they brought Durrrr and Zigmund but they seem to be afraid of ditching Doyle and Barry G because they are the long standing stars of the show. I am looking forward to seing Dario Miniri when he comes on this season.

Daithio

Regarding the running it twice confusion, running an event once versus running the same event any number of times doesn't change the expected value of that event, it just reduces the variance. The more times you run an event, the closer the observed results will be to their expected values. Running it twice just makes it "fairer", it doesn't change anybody's equity.

Think of flipping a coin. What is the expected value of flipping heads? 50%

Now think of flipping that coin five times and it turning up heads 4 times and tails once, so the observed results after flipping five times are heads 80% and tails 20%. This divergence from the expected value is called variance, and it is a property of small sample data.

Now flip the coin a billion times. What do you think the observed results will be? It will be pretty dam close to 50 50, or its expected value. So the observed results of any event will converge to their expected value as we increase the size of the sample to infinity.

In Doyle and Eli's case they are increasing the sample size by running it twice instead of once. The expected value of the outcome is still roughly 80% to 20% in Doyle's favour, but by running it twice the variance will be lower. If they ran it a billion times, Doyle would win pretty much exactly 80% of the time and Eli 20%.

cooker3

Will Durr be there when they bring in a new batch?
I assume Dario will be terrible, would be fun to see Durr go against him.

shano_88

cooker3 wrote: »

I assume Dario will be terrible, would be fun to see Durr go against him.

why would you assume that?

keane2097

What other players will actually be there throughout the season?

cuterob

lol at everybody trying to reason
you're seeing so few hands i cant understand why everyone is making all these assumptions

niallk

Oh no! Daniel don't!
Negreanu is an excellent reader, one of the best, but my god...
He obviously put Benyamine on a straight/flush draw and just stuck by his guns. It was terrible to watch. He was putting on that act we've seen him do before when he's sure he's right. Benyamine was practically begging him not to call, actually blurting out "Quads?!" although it was obvious Negreanu said "Squats". Then he was saying: "Be careful what you do." Then again he won't mind the extra 120K Daniel put in.

Headspace

About running it twice it is definetly harder to win it twice so so it must change th equity in th hand.

LuckyLloyd

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KevinK

keane2097 wrote: »

What other players will actually be there throughout the season?

Filmed over 3 days
Day 1: Doyle Brunson, Dario Minieri, Phil Laak, Tom "durrrr" Dwan, Eli Elezra, Mike Baxter, Alan Meltzer, and David Peat.

Day 2: Daniel Negreanu, Joe Hachem, Howard Lederer, Patrik Antonius, Phil Laak, Antonio Esfandiari, Sam Simon, and Nick Cassavetes.(Tom Dwan?)

Day 3: Tom Dwan, Doyle Brunson, Eli Elezra, Peter Eastgate, David Benyamine, Barry Greenstein, Ilari "Ziigmund" Sahamies, and Daniel Negreanu.

oleras

Daithio wrote: »

Regarding the running it twice confusion, running an event once versus running the same event any number of times doesn't change the expected value of that event, it just reduces the variance. The more times you run an event, the closer the observed results will be to their expected values. Running it twice just makes it "fairer", it doesn't change anybody's equity.

Think of flipping a coin. What is the expected value of flipping heads? 50%

Now think of flipping that coin five times and it turning up heads 4 times and tails once, so the observed results after flipping five times are heads 80% and tails 20%. This divergence from the expected value is called variance, and it is a property of small sample data.

Now flip the coin a billion times. What do you think the observed results will be? It will be pretty dam close to 50 50, or its expected value. So the observed results of any event will converge to their expected value as we increase the size of the sample to infinity.

In Doyle and Eli's case they are increasing the sample size by running it twice instead of once. The expected value of the outcome is still roughly 80% to 20% in Doyle's favour, but by running it twice the variance will be lower. If they ran it a billion times, Doyle would win pretty much exactly 80% of the time and Eli 20%.

Coin flipping and a deck of cards = Apples and Oranges.

You cant run it a billion times with cards, there are only 52 in the deck after all.

keane2097

People who refuse to even attempt to understand basic poker concepts, and then continue to post as though they are authorities on anything at all should be banned imo.

TripleAce

cuterob wrote: »

Can't really think about poker in this very moment!!!

peterswellman

The show is badly missing Farha this year. Just for his raising and increasing the pot size alone if nothing else. I also enjoy listening to him at the table. He comes across as a guy who would break both your legs if you owed him money.:D

ocallagh

oleras wrote: »

Coin flipping and a deck of cards = Apples and Oranges.

You cant run it a billion times with cards, there are only 52 in the deck after all.

His point is it doesn't matter if you run it once or a billion times, the EV stays the same. The fact you physically cannot run it a billion times makes no difference whatsoever.

Probability = Probability. Apple != Orange

ocallagh

keane2097 wrote: »

People who refuse to even attempt to understand basic poker concepts, and then continue to post as though they are authorities on anything at all should be banned imo.

This post deserves more than a thanks

cooker3

shano_88 wrote: »

why would you assume that?

I read from some HSNL regs that he sucks majorly also I assume most people who specialise in tournaments are relatively bad unless I hear otherwise.

Wombatman

cuterob wrote: »

lol at everybody trying to reason
you're seeing so few hands i cant understand why everyone is making all these assumptions

I must quote this post for some reason...........

I think it is safe to assume from the number of poorly played hands that Daniel's game was not in a good place on the day.

On the running it twice thang. If you are fearing getting sucked out on and have decided to smooth the variance, then surly in Doyle’s seat you should run it as many times as possible. Is there a limit?

Daithio

All they're doing is playing the same hand twice for two smaller pots. How can people not understand that their equity remains the same? 99 is a 20 to 80 dog in every situation, it's pretty simple.

menoscemo

Daithio wrote: »

All they're doing is playing the same hand twice for two smaller pots. How can people not understand that their equity remains the same? 99 is a 20 to 80 dog in every situation, it's pretty simple.

Not really because if a 9 pops out the first time it is much less likely to come out again the second time. and if it doesn't come out the first time there is a slightly higher chance of it coming out the second time.

Theresalwaysone

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Discussed during last year's initial show

And discussed here also.

EDIT: btw, the first quoted post there is not my own work! I robbed it from here

Thanks.

I was thinking that running it twice was one event as opposed to two seperate events.

Daithio

menoscemo wrote: »

Not really because if a 9 pops out the first time it is much less likely to come out again the second time. and if it doesn't come out the first time there is a slightly higher chance of it coming out the second time.

It still doesn't effect their overall equity.

Gholimoli

Daithio wrote: »

It still doesn't effect their overall equity.

i know you say that but can you prove it???

shano_88

persnally if i was doyle i would prefer running it 3 times.

DeadParrot

shano_88 wrote:

persnally if i was doyle i would prefer running it 3 times.

lolz

Flushdraw

shano_88 wrote: »

persnally if i was doyle i would prefer running it 3 times.

Nah he should run it 100 times so that he wins 75%-85% of the hands

Headspace

Of course running it twice effects the equity, first what menoscemo said, then he has two 20% shots (the second shot will be slightly less or more depending on outcome of the first). What is the chance of a split in a pair versus over pair when you run it twice?