Unemployment at current rate will reach 620,400 by end of year...

Darragh29

Right, according to the figures here:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0304/liveregister.html

Unemployment at the end of February stood at 354,400.

For the month of February, 26,600 people joined the live register.

So if we take the February figure and assume that the same rate of unemployment will continue throughout the next 10 months of the year, that suggests that 266,000 (26,600 x 10 months), people joining the dole queues between 1st March and 31st December 2009.

If we add 266,000 to 354,400 we get: 620,400...

So by the end of the year, going by the current trend, there will be 620,400 unemployed people in Ireland next Christmas...

yoshytoshy

Relax the cax ,businesses always suffer at end of year ,things always pick up in march/april.

FrankGrimes

Darragh29 wrote: »

Right, according to the figures here:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0304/liveregister.html

Unemployment at the end of February stood at 354,400.

For the month of February, 26,600 people joined the live register.

So if we take the February figure and assume that the same rate of unemployment will continue throughout the next 10 months of the year, that suggests that 266,000 (26,600 x 10 months), people joining the dole queues between 1st March and 31st December 2009.

If we add 266,000 to 354,400 we get: 620,400...

So by the end of the year, going by the current trend, there will be 620,400 unemployed people in Ireland next Christmas...

Gulp! :eek:

Yes, we all knew it was bad but it's still comes as a shock to see such harsh figures when they are announced.

One thing though, why does the RTE article say "Speaking in the Dáil, Brian Cowen said the unemployment rate at the end of last month was 10.4%.

He added that if the present rate of job loss continues, the unemployment figures could reach 450,000 by the end of the year."?

Is Cowen grossly underestimating the likley end of year total?

FrankGrimes

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Relax the cax ,businesses always suffer at end of year ,things always pick up in march/april.

Delusionville is that way

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>

Darragh29

This government can't add or subtract...

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0304/liveregister.html

"Speaking in the Dáil, Brian Cowen said the unemployment rate at the end of last month was 10.4%.

He added that if the present rate of job loss continues, the unemployment figures could reach 450,000 by the end of the year."

If the current rate of job losses continue, the end of year figure will not be 450,000 as suggested by Cowen but will be 620,400.

Darragh29

:mad::mad::mad:

These guys are paying themselves over 300K a year and they can't even add two numbers together!

:mad::mad::mad:

yoshytoshy

FrankGrimes wrote: »

Delusionville is that way

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>

What are you on about ,it's common knowledge that money dries up after christmas ,hence theres less money for the government to pick up.

Them figures will not continue at the rate that is mentioned ,are you seriously inviting that on the country ?

vinylbomb

FrankGrimes wrote: »

Gulp! :eek:

"Speaking in the Dáil, Brian Cowen said the unemployment rate at the end of last month was 10.4%"

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Then numbers can be skewed any way you wish them to be. Taking the jobs loss total in February and extending that out for the year is a little disingenuous, as Feb is probably one of the worst months recently.
For example in December there were 16.300 job losses, so to push this out for the year will give a figure 33% lower than the one stated by the OP.

I'm not saying things are all good, but the numbers dont always tell the whole truth, good or bad.

Robbo

Nothing wrong with extrapolating in a straight line, seems like a sensible way of going about things...

GunScope

No wonder the country is being affected so badly with people like this in charge ..... :rolleyes: ..... a bit of planning and forecasting and realising that nothing lasts forever could have prepared the government.

shqipshume

Anyone think the re-election will happen before time? I think needs to badly

Darragh29

yoshytoshy wrote: »

What are you on about ,it's common knowledge that money dries up after christmas ,hence theres less money for the government to pick up.

Them figures will not continue at the rate that is mentioned ,are you seriously inviting that on the country ?

Let's just look at the facts and we'll see if your argument can be reconciled with the facts. See the attached screen capture from the CSO.

Last January 2008, the rate of unemployment was 4.8%.

Every single month, exception none, that rate rose, until the rate of employment at the end of the December was 8.6%.

That trend over 2008, is continuing into January and February 2009. If anything, the rate of change is increasing and not decreasing.

What also should be taken into account is that there are probably thousands and thousands of people in Ireland who have recently lost their jobs but because of the huge backlog, they are not on the system and on this basis are not included in the above figures...

Mizu_Ger

Darragh29 wrote: »

Right, according to the figures here:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0304/liveregister.html

Unemployment at the end of February stood at 354,400.

For the month of February, 26,600 people joined the live register.

So if we take the February figure and assume that the same rate of unemployment will continue throughout the next 10 months of the year, that suggests that 266,000 (26,600 x 10 months), people joining the dole queues between 1st March and 31st December 2009.

If we add 266,000 to 354,400 we get: 620,400...

So by the end of the year, going by the current trend, there will be 620,400 unemployed people in Ireland next Christmas...

You're taking one of the worst months for increase in jobless numbers and expecting every month until the end of the year to be the same. There's no reasoning or method behind that. I would assume that trends through the year would need to be taken into account (as much as they still apply) before arriving at an estimate for the number out of warok at the end of the year. Or maybe take the monthly average incerase over the last 6 months to get a better estimate.

vinylbomb

Robbo wrote: »

Nothing wrong with extrapolating in a straight line, seems like a sensible way of going about things...

You're bang on, but you need to use more than one point of information, otherwise its not linear from past to present, and then future.

mike65

Robbo wrote: »

Nothing wrong with extrapolating in a straight line, seems like a sensible way of going about things...

Nonsense tbh, at best the peaks and troughs might even themselves out but thats not a good way of making projections!

Unemployment will jump in June/July/August for example - students leaving collage etc signing on, various staff who work in the school system, the summer shutdown in business (as opposed to the general closures).

Whether we are in an apocolypse (or if things are merely really bad) will be known for sure in September.

yoshytoshy

Darragh29 wrote: »

Let's just look at the facts and we'll see if your argument can be reconciled with the facts. See the attached screen capture from the CSO.

Last January 2008, the rate of unemployment was 4.8%.

Every single month, exception none, that rate rose, until the rate of employment at the end of the December was 8.6%.

That trend over 2008, is continuing into January and February 2009. If anything, the rate of change is increasing and not decreasing.

What also should be taken into account is that there are probably thousands and thousands of people in Ireland who have recently lost their jobs but because of the huge backlog, they are not on the system and on this basis are not included in the above figures...

But this is something I've seen every year for the last fiftheen years ,honestly.
People in general don't start spending until mid march/april ,thats consistantly through the years.
What has happened this year ,is the economy is shutting shop for a while ,probably due to the fact that money is scarce.
Theres still loads of people with money and they are too scared to spend ,we need people to start spending again and putting money back into the economy.

No one has any confidence in the current government and I doubt outside investors do either.

eoinbn

Oh come on.

The rate of job loses has peaked it's going to slow. If we were having this discussion last month we would be saying that a further 401500(36500*11) would lose there jobs by the end of the year.

Darragh29

My view of this is that whatever the end of year figure turns out to be, the people who are trying to resolve this on our behalf, should provide for a worst case scenario. We can argue all day about whether the February figure for job losses of 26,600, can reasonably be applied to the next ten months of the year.

I think the more jobs that are lost, the more the fear factor operates upon the economy, the more people don't spend, and then inevitably, the more jobs are lost again as a result. I think this is called a "negative feedback loop" in economics or in the real world, a runaway train effect.

Either way, we have yet to see a credible plan to stop or even slow down this rate of job losses on a monthly basis...

Darragh29

yoshytoshy wrote: »

But this is something I've seen every year for the last fiftheen years ,honestly.
People in general don't start spending until mid march/april ,thats consistantly through the years.
What has happened this year ,is the economy is shutting shop for a while ,probably due to the fact that money is scarce.
Theres still loads of people with money and they are too scared to spend ,we need people to start spending again and putting money back into the economy.

No one has any confidence in the current government and I doubt outside investors do either.

I agree, but the logic behind your argument is that people are scared sh*tless and will remain so for as long as there is a crisis of confidence in the government. So you could argue that for as long as we have this government, we are stuck with this monthly rate of job losses...

Mizu_Ger

Darragh29 wrote: »

I think the more jobs that are lost, the more the fear factor operates upon the economy, the more people don't spend, and then inevitably, the more jobs are lost again as a result. I think this is called a "negative feedback loop" in economics or in the real world, a runaway train effect.

I think that you are part of the "fear factor" and "negative feedback loop" with threads like this. Things are obviusly bad, but you can't just throw out numbers without any real basis behind them.

Robbo

mike65 wrote: »

Nonsense tbh, at best the peaks and troughs might even themselves out but thats not a good way of making projections!

I didn't sprinkle the sarcasm heavily enough over my original post.

OP, the methodology you've used to predict unemployment rates is quite wrong. I suggest you read Huff's seminal work on statistics.

yoshytoshy

Darragh29 wrote: »

I agree, but the logic behind your argument is that people are scared sh*tless and will remain so for as long as there is a crisis of confidence in the government. So you could argue that for as long as we have this government, we are stuck with this monthly rate of job losses...

Joblosses at the rate mentioned are not realistic ,you will find what we are left with are long standing Irish business and companies with good ties with ireland.

You'll always have companies running at the first sign of trouble ,I'd like to see the percentage figures for the remaining businesses and their interest in ireland.

vinylbomb

Mizu_Ger wrote: »

I think that you are part of the "fear factor" and "negative feedback loop" with threads like this. Things are obviusly bad, but you can't just throw out numbers without any real basis behind them.

The numbers have been shocking over the last few months, but I think that the "backlog" that was spoken of is what has just piled through the system, and badly skewed the stats.

In all honesty, every dog and their owner should have known this was coming.

One stat tells the whole story.

In normal developed Western economies, the percentage of the workforce employ in the construction industry is about 8%

At the end of 2007, in Ireland it was 21%



To me that says it all.

Darragh29

Mizu_Ger wrote: »

I think that you are part of the "fear factor" and "negative feedback loop" with threads like this. Things are obviusly bad, but you can't just throw out numbers without any real basis behind them.

I'm just making the point that the man who is running the country is simply INCORRECT When he states that IF the current rate of job losses for February were to continue throughout the year, that this would mean that only 450,000 people would be out of work by the end of the year. This is simple 4th class maths, if you can't understand it, grand, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation.

Every single forecast this government has issued over the last 18 months has been very wide off the mark. Last week we had the Taniste saying that the public finances were "now under control". Not seven days have passed and it emerges that in fact the public finances are even deeper and further down the toilet than we had previously been led to believe last week by the Tanaiste, (that the public finances were now under control).

You have to stand back and ask yourself what in the name of Jasus is going on here...

mike65

Robbo wrote: »

I didn't sprinkle the sarcasm heavily enough over my original post.

I'll be honest, I did wonder as it was you but then thought nah, Robbo is a thicko this morning! :pac:

vinylbomb

Darragh29 wrote: »

I'm just making the point that the man who is running the country is simply INCORRECT When he states that IF the current rate of job losses for February were to continue throughout the year,

He didnt say that. He said if the current rate of job losses continue.......

As far as I can tell you put the February in there, and derived the figures from that.

Caoimhín

mike65 wrote: »

Whether we are in an apocolypse (or if things are merely really bad) will be known for sure in September.

Im willing to bet on the former right now Mike.

Darragh29

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Joblosses at the rate mentioned are not realistic ,you will find what we are left with are long standing Irish business and companies with good ties with ireland.

You'll always have companies running at the first sign of trouble ,I'd like to see the percentage figures for the remaining businesses and their interest in ireland.

I'm talking to lads I know running businesses who have survived the 70's and the 80's, and are now either closing their businesses down or else letting people go.

yoshytoshy

Darragh29 wrote: »

I'm talking to lads I know running businesses who have survived the 70's and the 80's, and are now either closing their businesses down or else letting people go.

Theres no denying the mess thats left with us ,because of the way things were run.
The economy always follows the easiest route ,we've had our chunk of it and now its passed on to eastern europe.

Fianna fail have a lot to answer for ,hopefully they'll have plenty of time to do it ,soon enough.:)

Darragh29

vinylbomb wrote: »

He didnt say that. He said if the current rate of job losses continue.......

As far as I can tell you put the February in there, and derived the figures from that.

He said this in the context of discussing the February unemployment figures ffs.

vinylbomb

Darragh29 wrote: »

He said this in the context of discussing the February unemployment figures ffs.

Ah come on.
You cant just pick one set of figures and leave it at that!!
Sure if he compared them against the stats in January there would have been a 30% drop in the unemployment figures!!