Unemployment at current rate will reach 620,400 by end of year...

Red Sleeping Beauty

shqipshume wrote: »

Anyone think the re-election will happen before time? I think needs to badly

Are you talking about a general election ? It's been thrown around a bit in the last few months but I don't actually know the logistics of a general election being called at short notice.

As I understand it (in my layman's terms) the President has some special powers to dissolve the govt. but I don't think she can just step in and say "Oi, you, yis are crap, election time" and I don't see Brian Cowen asking the President to dissolve the Govt. so there can be an election

What would happen if there was an election tomorrow ? Would people show up ? Would people know about it ? How could you get all of the names on the ballot papers fast enough and how would people know who to vote for ? Would it be the same candidates as last time ?

Tech3

Of course some redundancies announced from last year and this year will not count onto the live register straight away ie dell 1,900 people. A unemployment count of 600,000 + would be unthinkable

Darragh29

tech2 wrote: »

Of course some redundancies announced from last year and this year will not count onto the live register straight away ie dell 1,900 people. A unemployment count of 600,000 + would be unthinkable

10% unemployment last June was unthinkable.

Firefox10

tech2 wrote: »

Of course some redundancies announced from last year and this year will not count onto the live register straight away ie dell 1,900 people. A unemployment count of 600,000 + would be unthinkable

Most of the dell people will be let go by mid/late summer starting in May with many other companies closing down or letting staff go to coincide with these at the same time. Half a million people out of work by next christmas would not surprise me at all. Including myself unfortunately.

Tech3

Firefox10 wrote: »

Most of the dell people will be let go by mid/late summer starting in May with many other companies closing down or letting staff go to coincide with these at the same time. Half a million people out of work by next christmas would not surprise me at all. Including myself unfortunately.

I am more referring to "unthinkable" as to how dire this country will be when it hits that figure. The government will keep lashing on tax until we have nothing. I do believe unemployment could quiet possibility hit 600k at the end of the year.

There are several things the government need to address after balancing the books. The cost of energy is a major problem in this country. 10% off the price of electricity to be introduced will not solve the problem. Were looking at 50% thats required but that cant work as wages are too high at this moment in time.

In reality this recession will go on for several years until wages and cost of living and energy are rock bottom to make us competetive again.

djpbarry

tedstriker wrote: »

From 5% to 10.4% in just 12 months is a serious problem and now that the government look like they're going to increase taxes spending is going to reduce, jobs lost and a real deeper recession is going to slow this country down. The worst thing about it all is that there isn't even a country to emigrate to, if you were that way inclined.

I don't entirely agree with that last statement - I know quite a few people who have recently emigrated (in the last few months) or are in the process of leaving. It's worth remembering that unemployment in Ireland is far higher than both the US and EU averages.

vinylbomb

tedstriker wrote: »

2 statistic charts for everyone. It's all about the trends and the trend here is dire:
Seasonally Adjusted Standarised Unemployment Rates for Ireland

This broadly confirms my 16% or thereabouts theory. The jobs that sucked people up in construction bubble of the noughties are gone.
Normal service in Ireland is resumed.

diverdriver

Those graphs are scary, looking at the '97 figure. I can see now why I was out of work for seven months in that year. Looking at the current figures. I can see that it's a lot worse now and going to get worse.

The Celtic Tiger cubs are in for a big reality check.

acontadino

djpbarry wrote: »

I don't entirely agree with that last statement - I know quite a few people who have recently emigrated (in the last few months) or are in the process of leaving. It's worth remembering that unemployment in Ireland is far higher than both the US and EU averages.

umm...also many eu states have very old populations, ireland is one if not the youngest populations, so maby this means job opportunities in other eu states.

spain i think already has reached 16 per cent unemployment.

yoshytoshy

vinylbomb wrote: »

This broadly confirms my 16% or thereabouts theory. The jobs that sucked people up in construction bubble of the noughties are gone.
Normal service in Ireland is resumed.

The scary thing about this though is the fall off in other sectors ,that relied on the income of the building sector.

So if the construction sector was 20% ,then there could be at least 7% or 8% indirectly affected aswell.
Then that has a knock on affect ,etc.

Saabdub

alan dunne 27 wrote: »

Are you talking about a general election ? It's been thrown around a bit in the last few months but I don't actually know the logistics of a general election being called at short notice.

As I understand it (in my layman's terms) the President has some special powers to dissolve the govt. but I don't think she can just step in and say "Oi, you, yis are crap, election time" and I don't see Brian Cowen asking the President to dissolve the Govt. so there can be an election

What would happen if there was an election tomorrow ? Would people show up ? Would people know about it ? How could you get all of the names on the ballot papers fast enough and how would people know who to vote for ? Would it be the same candidates as last time ?

Greens and independents remove support for Govt. Opposition calls a motion of no confidence, which Greens and independents support. Government falls. President either invites opposition to form Government or dissolves Dail. Election takes 3 weeks. Dail meets and elects Govt. in April which has a mandate to clean up the mess the state has gotten into. The rest of us get on with our lives.

Of course this won't happen. The Govt. will limp on from crisis to crisis with diminishing competence, confidence and support. While the state goes to hell in a handbasket.

Saabdub

Red Sleeping Beauty

Have the Greens and Independants not signed some legally binding agreement that they're in govt. with FF ?
Surely it's not possible to have govt. based on oral contracts and hand shakes ?

P. Breathnach

Alan Rouge wrote: »

Have the Greens and Independants not signed some legally binding agreement that they're in govt. with FF ?
Surely it's not possible to have govt. based on oral contracts and hand shakes ?

There will be get-out clauses.

In any event, political agreements of that nature are not legally enforceable in the same way as an agreement to buy a car.

johnnyskeleton

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Relax the cax ,businesses always suffer at end of year ,things always pick up in march/april.

Two things to note:

1) it takes a while for people to get signed on, and it takes a while between the announcement of job losses before the people actually lose their jobs. Self employed people have to wait a while before signing on, and many people have been kept on on a 3 day week or other arrangement. So a lot of the bad news we have heard about (e.g. Dell), probably hasn't filtered through the system yet

2) IMO, we haven't seen the same level of job losses in the retail and financial sectors as there have been in the UK.

While I see the increases slowing towards the summer, I think 500k is not being overly sceptical, and 620k while IMO unlikely, is not beyond the realms of the possible. Certainly, the government's 2008 prediction of 250k is laughable, and their more recent 450k looks somewhat rosy.

yoshytoshy

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Two things to note:

1) it takes a while for people to get signed on, and it takes a while between the announcement of job losses before the people actually lose their jobs. Self employed people have to wait a while before signing on, and many people have been kept on on a 3 day week or other arrangement. So a lot of the bad news we have heard about (e.g. Dell), probably hasn't filtered through the system yet

2) IMO, we haven't seen the same level of job losses in the retail and financial sectors as there have been in the UK.

While I see the increases slowing towards the summer, I think 500k is not being overly sceptical, and 620k while IMO unlikely, is not beyond the realms of the possible. Certainly, the government's 2008 prediction of 250k is laughable, and their more recent 450k looks somewhat rosy.

The worst thing about the end of the year is the holiday pay which costs companies a lot of money.
Some companies let people go before christmas and some let go after because they have to.
Hopefully thats still part of the problem this year and things will get a little better:(

vinylbomb

yoshytoshy wrote: »

So if the construction sector was 20% ,then there could be at least 7% or 8% indirectly affected aswell.
Then that has a knock on affect ,etc.

Its impossible to judge to ripple effect. I'm basing my figures on historically what the numbers have hovered around. To be honest, we have far more overseas business (hence employers) here now (and that makes us significantly different to Spain) which may push the figures down, but it is most vital in the short & medium term to restore a bit of competitiveness that we've lost.

IMO thats the way we get out of this mess, but it'll be a long haul, looking at a min of 3 years.

yoshytoshy

Things hit home yesterday ,when the thought that England was taking a gamble ,putting so much money into the economy:o
Higher income tax will frighten new investors away ,no one wants to pay for other peoples mistakes:(

The market structures in this country need a complete overhaul ,including the goods suppliers ,which people have said is what has kept prices high here.
Maybe if we deflate the profit margins of chain stores here ,that would lessen the burden. Tax suppliers in such a way ,that it won't affect the market price of goods.

Zynks

vinylbomb wrote: »

But to be honest, we're all just picking numbers out of our a*rses here, making wild suppositions based on guesswork at best.

Based on Cowen statement that he was caught by surprise by the €2bn extra deficit, I would say the his projections are no better than the "out of our a*rses " ones.

Heisenberg.

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