Joan Burton with Vincent Brown

nesf

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Here's an answer for you: the exchequer needs about €2.5-3k extra per taxpayer.

It's closer to €10K per worker in reality to close the full deficit.

P. Breathnach

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Here's an answer for you: the exchequer needs about €2.5-3k extra per taxpayer. You won't lower that average greatly just by hitting those on household incomes over, say, €100k. Would you vote for any party that said that it would impose taxes at such levels on you?

No party is saying what it proposes, even those parties that are currently in government. They don't want to frighten the electorate unless and until the voters get their heads around the scale of the problems we face. We are a long way from being ready for the necessary medicine.

The current lot will be forced to say it next month.
The others will continue to do what all oppositions do untill they get into power and dodge.

By the way I dont think taking 16 billion out of the economy is going to work.
How in blazes could it as everyone will be cutting back even more than now.
Services will have less and less custom.
VAT income will be lower and lower and the jobless total will go north of 500K.

Other countries will recover before this one so it will be back to large scale emmigration to lower the SW burden.

I genuinely reckon the ineptitude I've seen in the last 6 months is going to need 10 years for recovery not 2 or 3.

P. Breathnach

nesf wrote: »

It's closer to €10K per worker in reality to close the full deficit.

Well, according to some, people employed in the public sector don't work, so that pushes it up a bit further! As a pensioner, though, I might buy into the idea that only those currently at work should contribute to the cause.

My suggestion was a ball park figure based on the suppositions (a) that there would also be expenditure cuts and (b) that it is not seriously practicable to close the gap fully in the short term.

nesf

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Well, according to some, people employed in the public sector don't work, so that pushes it up a bit further! As a pensioner, though, I might buy into the idea that only those currently at work should contribute to the cause.

My suggestion was a ball park figure based on the suppositions (a) that there would also be expenditure cuts and (b) that it is not seriously practicable to close the gap fully in the short term.

b) is very much the case, it'd cripple the economy to take 20 billion out of it in one year. It's more of a "this is why trimming 5 billion in the next mini-budget is necessary" type thing.

professore

Assume working population of 1.5 million. Assume hole is 20 bln over next 5 years.

€ 20,000,000,000 / € 1,500,000 = € 13,333.33 per head, or € 2,666 per worker per annum.

nesf

professore wrote: »

Assume working population of 1.5 million. Assume hole is 20 bln over next 5 years.

The estimated deficit for 2009 was circa €14-15 billion back in October of last year. This was assuming far better tax returns and lower unemployment than what has transpired since then. Estimated tax take was approx €43.5 billion and estimate expenditure was over €58.2 billion. Link: http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/other/whitepaper08eng.pdf

The numbers I've seen thrown around recently was something closer to a 20 billion deficit for this year if spending and taxes are left as is.


The hole will be a lot bigger than 20 billion over the next 5 years unfortunately.

To put this into perspective for people our entire expenditure on the HSE in a year is only €12.3 billion. You could close down every hospital in the country and fire each and every nurse and doctor and we'd still be short €8 billion euro (income tax only brings in €13 billion in a good year and you can revise that figure downwards for this year).

eoinbn

professore wrote: »

Assume working population of 1.5 million. Assume hole is 20 bln over next 5 years.

€ 20,000,000,000 / € 1,500,000 = € 13,333.33 per head, or € 2,666 per worker per annum.

If you mean that each year a worker will have to pay an EXTRA €2,666 then yes.
In reality if we do somehow manage it, it will be €7b taxs, €7b cuts and hope to the economy can grow back the other €7b.

nesf

eoinbn wrote: »

If you mean that each year a worker will have to pay an EXTRA €2,666 then yes.
In reality if we do somehow manage it, it will be €7b taxs, €7b cuts and hope to the economy can grow back the other €7b.

The hole is more like 10-13K per worker per year unfortunately.

This is why Fine Gael were saying that the Government needs to find around 5 billion in cuts and taxes in this budget.

dave-higgz

spadder wrote: »

Yeah, I Like Vincent's show myself, pity it's not on a bit earlier instead of the celebrity fluff they have on.

Dexter is not celebrity fluff IMO

spadder wrote: »

He gave Tom Kitt a lashing for waffling this week too. If this becomes his trade mark, I could see him become very popular.
Ireland needs a "Jeremy Paxman". The fact that he's on TV3 means their not fearful of loosing their license fees.

+1

Sully

I know some think that the opposition party should be getting behind the government during these times but lets be fair - why leave the crowd who got us into this mess away with it? The apology wouldn't go astray - an apology/admission should be given by FF.

FG/Labour have been shouting trying to get the government to listen. A lot of items were debated against by the opposition because they felt it was unfair. A lot of people and analysis have a similar view. People think that we should be getting behind FF to get us out of the mess but the simple fact is they cant if they simply don't agree.

For suggestions? No party is going to give away their reforms but FG have stated a few times that they will look into different avenues to improve things while Labour just shout and dodge questions. People hear the shouting and don't hear the dodging.

I agree that FG/Labour should be running away with it and that FG are going downhill in polls. I personally think its because FG are not shouting as loud as Labour who are hitting all the right points with the public and FG are not doing as much as they are. I don't think its anything to do with Enda tbh, though im sure it doesn't help that many people see him like he is and compare him to Labour whos leader is constantly shouting more then Kenny.

eoinbn

nesf wrote: »

The hole is more like 10-13K per worker per year unfortunately.

This is why Fine Gael were saying that the Government needs to find around 5 billion in cuts and taxes in this budget.

Sorry about the confusion, I wasn't very clear. By an extra €2666 each year I mean this year it's an extra €2666, next year it will be €5332 up to €13330 in 5 years.

I personally think its because FG are not shouting as loud as Labour

IMO it's because FG were the first ones to 'attack' the public sector. They have been after reform for years, the PS/Unions don't like the word and were the first to call for a pay freeze as well as job cuts. So were not only public sector workers leaving FF for Labour but they were probably also leaving FG for Labour.

P. Breathnach

Sully wrote: »

...I personally think its because FG are not shouting as loud as Labour who are hitting all the right points with the public and FG are not doing as much as they are. I don't think its anything to do with Enda tbh, though im sure it doesn't help that many people see him like he is and compare him to Labour whos leader is constantly shouting more then Kenny.

I think it has a great deal to do with Enda. In part it is because he is not nearly as good an orator as Eamon Gilmore. More significantly, I think, is that he does not convey the impression that he fully comprehends the situation: he seems to be thinking and operating on a small scale when the challenge is on a big scale. It's a bit like trying to compete in a golf major with pitch-and-putt clubs and skills, or playing at Wimbledon with a table tennis bat.

Sully

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I think it has a great deal to do with Enda. In part it is because he is not nearly as good an orator as Eamon Gilmore. More significantly, I think, is that he does not convey the impression that he fully comprehends the situation: he seems to be thinking and operating on a small scale when the challenge is on a big scale. It's a bit like trying to compete in a golf major with pitch-and-putt clubs and skills, or playing at Wimbledon with a table tennis bat.

Well that's my point.. you cant compare him to Eamon Gilmore because he doesnt present himself as well as he does. Dont agree on the second part, I think he knows full well how bad things are and will get.

nesf

eoinbn wrote: »

Sorry about the confusion, I wasn't very clear. By an extra €2666 each year I mean this year it's an extra €2666, next year it will be €5332 up to €13330 in 5 years.

The post you were quoting was wrong, that's what I was correcting. It's 20 billion in deficit this year not over the next 5 years.

John_C

nesf wrote: »

The post you were quoting was wrong, that's what I was correcting. It's 20 billion in deficit this year not over the next 5 years.

I think the argument is that we shouldn't close the deficit all in one year. We should get it down to 15 billion next year and 10 billion the year after that.

nesf

John_C wrote: »

I think the argument is that we shouldn't close the deficit all in one year. We should get it down to 15 billion next year and 10 billion the year after that.

This is true (taking 20 billion out of the economy this year would do bad things to it[/i]) but there's a false belief in the country about how big the actual deficit is from what I've been reading and hearing.

Deise Tom

I saw Joan Burton on RTE this evening and nearly died with fright. Who was the cleavage on show for. Was it to try and pull in a few extra male votes in the next election. Mutton dressed as lamb came to mind.

irish_bob

Deise Tom wrote: »

I saw Joan Burton on RTE this evening and nearly died with fright. Who was the cleavage on show for. Was it to try and pull in a few extra male votes in the next election. Mutton dressed as lamb came to mind.

joans busom has long been a feature on irish media and i for one rejoice , thier the best thing about the labour party , the only good thing

Deise Tom

irish_bob wrote: »

joans busom has long been a feature on irish media and i for one rejoice , thier the best thing about the labour party , the only good thing

Well if Joan's chest is the best thing about the labour party, it does not have much going for it.

irish_bob

Deise Tom wrote: »

Well if Joan's chest is the best thing about the labour party, it does not have much going for it.

touche