Is Ireland going to go bankrupt?

Flamed Diving

Barname wrote: »

We cannot deflate our currency so we need to address public/civil sector wages.

PS/CS wages above €25,000 need to be slashed by 30% - 50%

Our PS/CS is living way beyond our means.

Examine other comparable EU countries and you will glean it for yourself.

Social Welfare and Rent allowance need to be slashed too.

The PS CS wages are too large a burden for the rest of the economy to bear. This makes us uncompetitive.

1) How would devaluing our currency help this scenario?

2) How could cutting the income of civil servants by 50% pull us out of recession? How would it make us more attractive to FDI?

MrJetlag

It all depends what our govt do in the next few months

One of the main issues is the waste and the layers in the public service

Bottom line they need to cut the headcount and make it more efficient. - A voluntary severance package and Pay for performance should do that.

Unfortunately the Govt doesn't appear to have the balls to do this so we are heading down the same road as Argentina. Default, Bankruptcy and IMF

Also the govt should be doing everything they can to put money into the economy (cut vat for starters) - but again the Irish solution is to take money out of the economy ?????

So based on past govt action/inaction and general f**k ups by the govt. we will be go bankrupt and while we're on our way there it'll be like the Ireland of the 50's except this time we wont have anywhere to emigrate to.

Preisthood should do well though.

Flamed Diving

MrJetlag wrote: »

It all depends what our govt do in the next few months

One of the main issues is the waste and the layers in the public service

Bottom line they need to cut the headcount and make it more efficient. - A voluntary severance package and Pay for performance should do that.

Unfortunately the Govt doesn't appear to have the balls to do this so we are heading down the same road as Argentina. Default, Bankruptcy and IMF

Also the govt should be doing everything they can to put money into the economy (cut vat for starters) - but again the Irish solution is to take money out of the economy ?????

So based on past govt action/inaction and general f**k ups by the govt. we will be go bankrupt and while we're on our way there it'll be like the Ireland of the 50's except this time we wont have anywhere to emigrate to.

Preisthood should do well though.

The most sensationalist, to date. All we are short is someone saying that we are heading for another Great Famine and we have completed the round trip of our collective hearts.

:rolleyes:

P. Breathnach

Barname wrote: »

... The PS CS wages are too large a burden for the rest of the economy to bear. This makes us uncompetitive.

What makes us uncompetitive is the high cost of doing business here. That is not very strongly linked to public service pay rates.

Flamed Diving

People should read this to learn how Ireland is viewed (vs other countries) by businessmen around the world:

http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm

neantog

As long as the Irish population allows Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour, or any of the other parties in Leinster House to govern, then the impending disaster will not be halted.

All of these parties are capitalist - They take their orders from the banks and big business - The Irish population have little or no say in how this country is run.

Capitalism is broken worldwide, but our own capitalist clowns arrogantly believe that they can fix it, with the help of Obama, the IMF, and the ECB, and get their beloved bubble economy going again.

Our so-called government are going to try to balance the budget by severely cutting social welfare, civil service wages and recruitment, and increasing taxes.

How will any of this fix anything ?

These cuts, and taxes, will take a large amount of money out of the economy countrywide - which is clearly bad for the economy. Also the cuts, and taxes, will further discourage people from spending - which is also bad for the economy.

Government spending cuts, increased taxes, and mass unemployment make for a toxic brew. A lot of very angry people are going to sit up and take notice of their "Government", and about time too!

We need a society which places people and the environment before profit.

I see no sign yet of a real debate about society or capitalism in the media.

There was a slight hint of what's required on Vincent Browne's programme on TV3 last night. The panel guests Fintan O'Toole and a member of the Communist Party of Ireland spoke wery well, and were a breath of fresh air compared with the right-wing guff generated by most of the Media.

The likes of Browne's programme, and RTE's Q & A farce, must include unemployed people, and low-paid working-class people on their panels, alongside the comfortably off "experts", to help bring some reality to the debates.

thebman

Flamed Diving wrote: »

People should read this to learn how Ireland is viewed (vs other countries) by businessmen around the world:

http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm

Right according to that our Infrastructure is crap and we have a less than average market size and we aren't technology ready.

No real new news there though.

The main problem is we have no money to invest in infrastructure, we can't increase our market size in a recession and we can't make people become better with technology, they have to want to learn.

So we can't fix those things but we can try to become more competitive again in the areas we can control to try to offset those disadvantages until we get the money to fix infrastructure or how do you propose we improve our infrastructure with no money?

Flamed Diving

thebman wrote: »

Right according to that our Infrastructure is crap and we have a less than average market size and we aren't technology ready.

No real new news there though.

The main problem is we have no money to invest in infrastructure, we can't increase our market size in a recession and we can't make people become better with technology, they have to want to learn.

So we can't fix those things but we can try to become more competitive again in the areas we can control to try to offset those disadvantages until we get the money to fix infrastructure or how do you propose we improve our infrastructure with no money?

Such as?

Sleipnir

neantog wrote: »

As long as the Irish population allows Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour, or any of the other parties in Leinster House to govern, then the impending disaster will not be halted. All of these parties are capitalist - They take thier orders from the banks and big business - The Irish population have little or no say in how this country is run. Capitalism is broken worldwide, but our own capitalist clowns arrogantly believe that they can fix it, with the help of Obama, the IMF, and the ECB, and get their beloved bubble economy going again. Our so-called government are going to try to balance the budget by severely cutting social welfare, civil service wages and recruitment, and increasing taxes. How will any of this fix anything ?These cuts, and taxes, will take a large amount of money out of the economy countrywide - which is clearly bad for the economy.Also the cuts, and taxes, will further discourage people from spending - which is also bad for the economy.Government spending cuts, increased taxes, and mass unemployment make a toxic brew.A lot of very angry people are going to sit up and take notice of their "Government", and about time too !We need a society which places people and the environment before profit.I see no sign yet of a real debate about society or capitalism in the media. There was a slight hint of what's required on Vincent Browne's programme on TV3 last night. The panel guests Fintan O'Toole and a member of the Communist Party of Ireland spoke wery well, and were a breath of fresh air compared with the right-wing guff generated by most of the Media.The likes of Browne's programme, and RTE's Q & A farce, must include unemployed people, and low-paid working-class people, on their panels, alongside the comfortably off "experts", to help bring some reality to the debates.

I'm not reading that.
Even history's greatest ranters used paragraphs.

ardmacha

The main problem is we have no money to invest in infrastructure, we can't increase our market size in a recession and we can't make people become better with technology, they have to want to learn.

We should keep sight of the need to have infrastructure if it can be delivered more efficiently and cheaply. Ireland in the 1990's grew in a sustainable way and people did want to use technology, in the 2000's they all wanted to become tribunal lawyers and property magnates. Hopefully they will want to do something productive again and Ireland's score for things like innovation can increase.

thebman

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Such as?

Inefficient government bureaucracy
We can definitely do better here. How many people are employed to do jobs that don't need to exist or that could be automated to improve response times in the public sector? I would think a lot of people.


Restrictive labor regulations

Not suggesting we take off all labor regulations but we should look into what was highlighted and see if there were any sensible things on this that we can change. Pay and Productivity was also highlighted as a disadvantage for us. So we either need to become more productive or cheaper.

Inflation has been going through the roof for years as well but that isn't really the case anymore. Some of inflation was caused by crap government policy such as artificially high ESB rates and line rental rates in communications market.

We need to remove these to start with.

Flamed Diving

ardmacha wrote: »

We should keep sight of the need to have infrastructure if it can be delivered more efficiently and cheaply. Ireland in the 1990's grew in a sustainable way and people did want to use technology, in the 2000's they all wanted to become tribunal lawyers and property magnates. Hopefully they will want to do something productive again and Ireland's score for things like innovation can increase.

We also need to draw a line between borrowing for short-term measures and long-term returns. Sure, the money we borrow short-term to cover holes in the exchequer/financial system will be a tough pill to swallow, but any borrowing for long-term infrastructural projects should not be bunched in the same category.

Of course, we are all in the dark until the feckin budget comes out.

I can't wait!

the_dark_side

yes... we're bucked. The Deficit was down 10 times what it was for the first quarter this time last year, and yet again, the government got the projection badly wrong.. we will have no way of paying the state benefits, and even PC salaries, and the government are being EXREMELY uncommunicative Corruption is authority plus monopoly minus transparency

thebman

Flamed Diving wrote: »

We also need to draw a line between borrowing for short-term measures and long-term returns. Sure, the money we borrow short-term to cover holes in the exchequer/financial system will be a tough pill to swallow, but any borrowing for long-term infrastructural projects should not be bunched in the same category.

Of course, we are all in the dark until the feckin budget comes out.

I can't wait!

I agree completely on infrastructure. We may have no money but we must keep whatever projects alive that we can.

However, communications infrastructure is really important and our government gave this to a mobile company to build a phone network to the point that independent lobby groups are thinking of requesting the EU reconsider helping to fund the project because we are essentially paying for a mobile phone network instead of improving communications infrastructure.

With the same money we are putting into this, Finland will have fibre in its rural areas and cities even with their more challenging landscape. A national tragedy but not to be unexpected from this government.

Flamed Diving

the_dark_side wrote: »

yes... we're bucked. The Deficit was down 10 times what it was for the first quarter this time last year, and yet again, the government got the projection badly wrong.. we will have no way of paying the state benefits, and even PC salaries, and the government are being EXREMELY uncommunicative Corruption is authority plus monopoly minus transparency

Ahh, thanks for the tabloid letters there. I might have missed it otherwise.

MrJetlag

Flamed Diving wrote: »

The most sensationalist, to date. All we are short is someone saying that we are heading for another Great Famine and we have completed the round trip of our collective hearts.

:rolleyes:

What would you call 700+ unfortunate people queuing for food parcels outside the Capuchins in Dublin?

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ididmhcwid/

thebman

MrJetlag wrote: »

What would you call 700+ unfortunate people queuing for food parcels outside the Capuchins in Dublin?

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ididmhcwid/

Hungry?

I think there are enough outlets open to people that they probably didn't all need to resort to the above. Its hysteria taking over people in some cases I imagine.

If you have to make a choice between paying your mortgage and starving, you bloody well don't choose starving.

I'd need to know what situation has lead these people to this situation and what previous figures were for people getting food from Capuchins before I'll say things have gotten so bad. They could be alcoholics and drug addicts for all I know. How do I know these are ordinary working class people queuing for food parcels?

goodcitizen

Any wonder the country is going bankrupt.......I know of people in their late thirties or early forties receiving index
linked state pensions for the rest of their lives, then working another job ........I know of a public company, that instead
of closing a certain department when work dried up........allowed employees to come in and doss around....go to sleep for the
day or do nixers while at the same time pulling down 70 or 80 grand each of taxpayers money for months at a time....I know of
a public utility company paying their workers three times the going rate of those working in a private company for doing
exactly the same work......

P. Breathnach

goodcitizen wrote: »

Any wonder the country is going bankrupt.......I know of people in their late thirties or early forties receiving index
linked state pensions for the rest of their lives, then working another job ........I know of a public company, that instead
of closing a certain department when work dried up........allowed employees to come in and doss around....go to sleep for the
day or do nixers while at the same time pulling down 70 or 80 grand each of taxpayers money for months at a time....I know of
a public utility company paying their workers three times the going rate of those working in a private company for doing
exactly the same work......

I suggest that you live up to the user name that you have given yourself: write to the Comptroller and Auditor General with details.

Barname

P. Breathnach wrote: »

What makes us uncompetitive is the high cost of doing business here. That is not very strongly linked to public service pay rates.

ahem, they are inextricably linked.

The bloated and worlds most expensive public/civil service is carried by the producers within the economy.

Surely you are joking when you state

What makes us uncompetitive is the high cost of doing business here

and fail to understand the link to

That is not very strongly linked to public service pay rates

Irish business is very competitive, Irish exporters have known for years how tough the global market place is.

The bloat and overhead that drags us down is the CS/PS. These costs become part of the private sectors cost base.

basic that.

Flamed Diving

goodcitizen wrote: »

Any wonder the country is going bankrupt.

It's going bankrupt? That's news to me!

Please, share your wisdom with the rest of us...

funky.monkey

Yes - From whats being trailed in the papers about the budget, I'd say Ireland probably will go bankrupt in about 2 years time. Raising taxes so much will be like pouring wet cement into the economy. They don't understand that tax rises and the threat of even more tax rises in the Autumn budget will kill off any remaining consumer demand. This will trigger more job losses, more dole payments, which will need more tax rises to try and keep up. Just a ever descending circle till international lenders see we won't be able to repay our debts, and then the governments cheques start bouncing.

professore

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I suggest that you live up to the user name that you have given yourself: write to the Comptroller and Auditor General with details.

So he can fire them .... oh wait, no he can't

johnnyskeleton

thebman wrote: »

I'd need to know what situation has lead these people to this situation and what previous figures were for people getting food from Capuchins before I'll say things have gotten so bad. They could be alcoholics and drug addicts for all I know. How do I know these are ordinary working class people queuing for food parcels?

There seem to be a lot of non nationals (non EU) queuing for food which there weren't before (in any great numbers). Perhaps this is because they can't get the dole (much like homeless people).

neantog

MrJetlag wrote: »

What would you call 700+ unfortunate people queuing for food parcels outside the Capuchins in Dublin?

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ididmhcwid/

Irish capitalism red in tooth and claw !

May I suggest a modest proposal in these difficult times for free enterprise - which will prevent the idle poor from dragging Ireland back to the dark days of endemic poverty, and, make a welcome and sustainable profit for our eager entrepreneurs into the bargain, going forward -

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/1080/1080-h/1080-h.htm

senses09

Being Irish but living abroad the last few years has really made me see from outside how our country of excessive inhabitants truly deserves to go bankrupt. I happen to live in a country where the economy has been and continues to be very stable mainly because it's in the peoples' mentality to save BEFORE they spend, to not live out of their means and it's a country where banks don't hand out credit to people who don't have a stable income to pay it back.e.g., students or part-time employees. Most importantly it's a culture where people want to have their own money and not be living off the banks because they know that's NOT their money.

Despite the current situation, I can't believe I still have Irish friends who are taking money out to go on holidays, to build their mansions,even for their social life! lol! and moreso that the banks??? are giving them this money!

As for this idea of printing money sounds great but hey..it's not real either so will have no value!

If the mentality of the people doesn't start to change then your situation definitely won't. Maybe people should start looking at what's most important before it really is too late!

Économiste Monétaire

Tax is down quite significantly:



That's a loss of around €3.17bn from the same period last year, or 24%. Total expenditure was €18.962bn for Jan-Apr 2009, so a deficit of €7.316bn when you included other forms of revenue. Personally, I wouldn't weight the idea of bankruptcy with a high probability, the EIB is now a counter party to ECB tender operations so that's a plus. GoGo EBRD, EIB, IMF; come 'invest' in Ireland . Unless, of course, Brian L loses his bottle on required expenditure cuts this year. Social Welfare will increase as the numbers signing on continues to rise:


The 16% figure on standardised unemployment is from a European Commission projection for the end of 2010. The numbers are just arbitrary to fill some space, they're not a projection from any policy body.

thebman

Posted this on politics but it could probably go here anyway. I'm sure some of you have an interest in the article.

It is a CNN money article featuring Michael O'Leary:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/13/news/international/tully_ireland.fortune/index.htm

eamonnm79

7.3billion deficit over 4 months. Anualised thats 22 billion by the end of the year.

Thats fairly much in line with the buget projections, which is good.

eamonnm79

This is one of practicle parts of nama that worry me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCi11gUFGfU&feature=related

This video shows people squating in S California in Abbandoned housing estates.
If the government own the houses people will feel(rightly or wrongly) they have a moral right.