Is Ireland going to go bankrupt?

Sandvich

Donegalguy2 wrote: »

Our tax take this year will be approximately 30 billion before this recession started we paid under 2 billion in interest repayments. After 2011 we will be paying 9.1 billion per year. This gives us 20.9 billion per year. We are currently spending 50 billion. Sound like fun right? it gets exponentially worse after 2011.

I have a few things I think we should do!! hell it is never going to be enough in itself but anyone have any thoughts? I think it is fair.
Public Sector
1 people can get sacked (especially if there useless!!)
2 10% deduction up to 45K
3 20% reduction between 45 - 99k obviously only between the bands.
4 over 100,000 - 50% reduction

Reduce minimum to a moving average of the uk equivalent - generally employers will probably stick to yearly for handiness anyway

nationalise the banks - all of them. this will give us the oppurtunity to nationalise them and make a billions on them when times become better. I dont call it nationalisation really just pre privatisation haha.

I would bring back treason and anyone that is seeing as robbing the state would fall into this category.

Any thoughts

Rickie

This is what the government wants you to think. That tax estimate is pure fiction and the fact is if you cut minimum wage or dole or disability - even though they may seem uncomfortably high, there's less money flowing . The government will be getting less money tax back so it's not pure profit but the economy will get back on it's knees.

Sandvich

Time Magazine wrote: »

Off by about 100%. Tax take will be a little shy of €60bn.

The problem here is the definition of "can". Nobody argues that public sector workers shouldn't be able to be sacked, and thankfully they can. The problem is that it's not very easy to do so.

Unfair on those on less than €24k.

A little heavy tbh, especially since they've already had a 7% cut via the pension levy.

Insane. You think that's fair? Seriously?

Why should we peg it to the UK equivalent?

Agreed that the banks should be nationalised, but it's extremely naive to think it could be done profitably.

Robbing the state is not treason. Treason is an attempt to overthrow the state. I wouldn't put theft in the same league.

Out of interest, given you seem to have your head screwed on fairly well, what would you recommend be done in this situation?

seclachi

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33506526

Somebody showed this to me at work the other week, needless to say its sickening reading.

Heres a quick recap of the figures that are in it for external debt..

The united states
External debt (as % of GDP): 94.3%
External debt per capita: $43,793

Gross external debt: $13.454 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion



Ireland

External debt (as % of GDP): 1,267%
External debt per capita: $567,805

Gross external debt: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $188.4 billion



No.2 in the world after Ireland (Switzerland) owes 422.7% of its GDP.

How the hell did it ever get this bad.. Did anybody at the Government bother to stop having cash fights with the stamp duty takings and see what was really happening ?

Time Magazine

The report is wrong, basically. It doesn't account for the fact that the majority of banks in the IFSC have operations in Ireland for tax breaks but should not be considered "Irish" for debt-related purposes.

Économiste Monétaire

Look at the Irish-resident column on table C7 of the CBFSAI Monthly Statistics (or the quarterly Private-Sector Credit release) for a better perspective on the 'Irish' debt position.

recedite

Time Magazine wrote: »

The report is wrong, basically. It doesn't account for the fact that the majority of banks in the IFSC have operations in Ireland for tax breaks but should not be considered "Irish" for debt-related purposes.

The report's authors appear to have already taken the IFSC into account; "even if the banking sector is removed from the total external debt number, Ireland would still have a 748% debt-to-GDP ratio, keeping the country at the top spot".

Sandvich

Well if that's true we're all ****ed. There's a lot of fear mongering going on at the moment though so it's tough to know.

Flamed Diving

recedite wrote: »

The report's authors appear to have already taken the IFSC into account; "even if the banking sector is removed from the total external debt number, Ireland would still have a 748% debt-to-GDP ratio, keeping the country at the top spot".

748% is 3.1 times the level of Zimbabwe, who have the highest ratio in the world.

Idbatterim

I find it impossible to be optimistic given the current situation. I cant see where this expected "turnaround" will come from any time soon! I actually cant even comprehend how screwed we are! We are trying to cut only a fifth of our deficit and look at the uproar, think of the knock on of taking out an extra €4 billion out of the economy next year! Im not saying its not necessary, but my god it will make things even more difficult! I was listening to the Sinn Fein spokesman on the radio earlier, and he said would cap all pay at €100,000 per annum including bonuses, perks etc. I would cap it at €150,000 across the board, with very few exceptions. I keep hearing the word "fairness" brought up and it makes me sick! define fair please?! Is it fair that there are people working there asses off and would be better off milking the state? Is is not fair that people who have committed themselves to education, years of hard work etc should earn more than the begrudgers would wish? We have the ever present problem of deferring and muddying our actions means we are going to have to continually pay higher and higher interest for our loans! This country in several years will no doubt be studied in others on how and how not to do things! There are some fantastic articles in the SINDO every Sunday and as far as Im concerned the PS debate is over, there is no defence left for them! I really think the current situation is awful for everyone involved and I think we are going to be an economic wasteland for several years to come! and if we are going to have to go to europe or the IMF for help it would be much better if it happened much sooner rather than later! there is just not going to be a recovery until serious serious actions are taken!

PaddyThai

Idbatterim wrote: »

I find it impossible to be optimistic given the current situation. I cant see where this expected "turnaround" will come from any time soon! I actually cant even comprehend how screwed we are! We are trying to cut only a fifth of our deficit and look at the uproar, think of the knock on of taking out an extra €4 billion out of the economy next year! Im not saying its not necessary, but my god it will make things even more difficult! I was listening to the Sinn Fein spokesman on the radio earlier, and he said would cap all pay at €100,000 per annum including bonuses, perks etc. I would cap it at €150,000 across the board, with very few exceptions. I keep hearing the word "fairness" brought up and it makes me sick! define fair please?! Is it fair that there are people working there asses off and would be better off milking the state? Is is not fair that people who have committed themselves to education, years of hard work etc should earn more than the begrudgers would wish? We have the ever present problem of deferring and muddying our actions means we are going to have to continually pay higher and higher interest for our loans! This country in several years will no doubt be studied in others on how and how not to do things! There are some fantastic articles in the SINDO every Sunday and as far as Im concerned the PS debate is over, there is no defence left for them! I really think the current situation is awful for everyone involved and I think we are going to be an economic wasteland for several years to come! and if we are going to have to go to europe or the IMF for help it would be much better if it happened much sooner rather than later! there is just not going to be a recovery until serious serious actions are taken!

+1.

I try to be optimistic and look at the positives. Otherwise I'm not sure I could get up in the morning.
But realistically I see all sectors of the Irish economy in serious trouble; Construction, Retail, Farming, Tourism. Added to that the so called Pension Time bomb will be more of a problem as the young emigrate.
There are also serious problems with getting credit not only from banks but from companies. Companies that would have supplied on credit nowe want to be paid immediatley. I presume they fear people defaulting. Many are unable to pay their debts and in some cases have to go to jail. This merely adds to the burden on the system.

spoutwell

People here wonder about the astronomical debt to GDP ratio and think 'surely not?'
I'm not an economist, but how about the town I live in of 15-20000 people in the midlands.
There are 4,500 people unemployed here. I imagine there are 3000 kids at school (there's 3 secondary schools and 5 or 6 primary schools). There's probably 5,000 retired or very young. There's probably a few hundred carers and disabled.
Lets say there's 8,000 people working.
The vast majority of them work for the govt. in the schools, the 2 big hospitals, the nursing homes, the county council, the various govt. agencies, the gardai, etc.
The industrial estates have become business parks which distribute goods, 90% of which are foreign manufactured.
There are many 'service' jobs - hotels, shops, supermarkets, solicitors offices, estate agents (not as many).
There are 2 factories and a few small workshops.
There are probably 1000 people producing goods for export.
The hinterland is agricultural, the farmers are depending on subsidies to survive.
This system cannot survive. It has been propped up for years by a credit-based housing bubble. Now that's gone.
At least we're closer to reality. Unfortunately if every other town is like here, the country hasn't a hope.

Flamed Diving

spoutwell, I take you agree with the assertion that our debt-to-gdp ratio is greater than Zimbabwe's?

Sandvich

Idbatterim wrote: »

I find it impossible to be optimistic given the current situation. I cant see where this expected "turnaround" will come from any time soon! I actually cant even comprehend how screwed we are! We are trying to cut only a fifth of our deficit and look at the uproar, think of the knock on of taking out an extra €4 billion out of the economy next year! Im not saying its not necessary, but my god it will make things even more difficult! I was listening to the Sinn Fein spokesman on the radio earlier, and he said would cap all pay at €100,000 per annum including bonuses, perks etc. I would cap it at €150,000 across the board, with very few exceptions. I keep hearing the word "fairness" brought up and it makes me sick! define fair please?! Is it fair that there are people working there asses off and would be better off milking the state? Is is not fair that people who have committed themselves to education, years of hard work etc should earn more than the begrudgers would wish? We have the ever present problem of deferring and muddying our actions means we are going to have to continually pay higher and higher interest for our loans! This country in several years will no doubt be studied in others on how and how not to do things! There are some fantastic articles in the SINDO every Sunday and as far as Im concerned the PS debate is over, there is no defence left for them! I really think the current situation is awful for everyone involved and I think we are going to be an economic wasteland for several years to come! and if we are going to have to go to europe or the IMF for help it would be much better if it happened much sooner rather than later! there is just not going to be a recovery until serious serious actions are taken!

You don't save an economy by taking money out of it. That's the root of the problem. "difficult decisions" - doesn't mean they're the correct decisions. Actually, they're easy decisions.

Sandvich

PaddyThai wrote: »

+1.

I try to be optimistic and look at the positives. Otherwise I'm not sure I could get up in the morning.
But realistically I see all sectors of the Irish economy in serious trouble; Construction, Retail, Farming, Tourism. Added to that the so called Pension Time bomb will be more of a problem as the young emigrate.
There are also serious problems with getting credit not only from banks but from companies. Companies that would have supplied on credit nowe want to be paid immediatley. I presume they fear people defaulting. Many are unable to pay their debts and in some cases have to go to jail. This merely adds to the burden on the system.

They don't HAVE to go to jail. This system doesn't benefit the person in debt or the debt collector. It's just that nobody's bothered to call this system into question. Sending people to jail for owing debts in a recession when we don't have enough money to keep people in jail is nuts.

recedite

Flamed Diving wrote: »

spoutwell, I take you agree with the assertion that our debt-to-gdp ratio is greater than Zimbabwe's?

Whats your estimation of it then, Flamed Diving?
Given that unemployment is rising rapidly and debt is increasing daily, even someone in possession of accurate figures would only come up with a "snapshot in time" figure, but have a go anyway.

Idbatterim

Sandvich wrote: »

You don't save an economy by taking money out of it. That's the root of the problem. "difficult decisions" - doesn't mean they're the correct decisions. Actually, they're easy decisions.

So you agree with the complete 2 tier system we have now, you maintain the status quo should be maintained at all costs? that the PS should be propped up at everyone elses expense?

Flamed Diving

recedite wrote: »

Whats your estimation of it then, Flamed Diving?
Given that unemployment is rising rapidly and debt is increasing daily, even someone in possession of accurate figures would only come up with a "snapshot in time" figure, but have a go anyway.

I'm not the one throwing around figures of 748%, recedite. If you want pointless guesswork, I suggest you visit the Irish Economy forum. In addition, we all live in continuous time. All the time. Your last comment is laughably silly.

recedite

Flamed Diving wrote: »

In addition, we all live in continuous time. All the time. Your last comment is laughably silly.

Maybe you have not noticed the extraordinary divergence between gov. revenues and gov. expenditure over the past few months. I'll tell you whats laughably silly; When the ESB workers were given a pay rise this summer on the basis of a labour court registered agreement made about 2 years ago. We don't all live in real time, or even the real world.

seclachi

spoutwell wrote: »

People here wonder about the astronomical debt to GDP ratio and think 'surely not?'
I'm not an economist, but how about the town I live in of 15-20000 people in the midlands.
There are 4,500 people unemployed here. I imagine there are 3000 kids at school (there's 3 secondary schools and 5 or 6 primary schools). There's probably 5,000 retired or very young. There's probably a few hundred carers and disabled.
Lets say there's 8,000 people working.
The vast majority of them work for the govt. in the schools, the 2 big hospitals, the nursing homes, the county council, the various govt. agencies, the gardai, etc.
The industrial estates have become business parks which distribute goods, 90% of which are foreign manufactured.
There are many 'service' jobs - hotels, shops, supermarkets, solicitors offices, estate agents (not as many).
There are 2 factories and a few small workshops.
There are probably 1000 people producing goods for export.
The hinterland is agricultural, the farmers are depending on subsidies to survive.
This system cannot survive. It has been propped up for years by a credit-based housing bubble. Now that's gone.
At least we're closer to reality. Unfortunately if every other town is like here, the country hasn't a hope.

Unfortunatly thats the situation in alot of towns up and down the country. Fortunatly it doesnt represent the country as a whole, there are alot of multinationals and national organizations providing work in the country still. This has been the scenario in many countrys since the dawn of the industrial age, its why large cities form by migration.

Time Magazine

And this thread dies.