Recovery in 7 years???

population

Just been throwing an eye on Warren Buffet giving an interview on CNBC.

He reckons the USA will recover in 5 years, but that they are going to be some of the toughest years in living memory.

Bearing in mind Ireland tends to lag by a year or two (a bit subjective I know) it could be 7 years before we lot on Craggy Island see an upturn.

Anyone agree/disagree???

5-7 years sounds like a depressingly long time to me

P. Breathnach

I don't know why Buffet estimates five years, but I think he is in the ballpark: the degree of disorder in banking & finance almost everywhere is so vast that it will take years to sort out some fixes.

I think that Ireland will not be at the head of the possee (as you also suggest). How far behind we are will depend on what we can do to address those other problems we have which are of our own making --in particular, our exchequer problems.

Nodin

Roll D20+5, I'd imagine. The US had to throw more at AIG the other week, and the Brits had to take over more of Lloyds, so we haven't even seen things level out yet.

20goto10

It's not possible. We won't have an economy left if it goes on that long. All that matters is how long will it take for public lethargy to kick in. When will the media stop talking about it. Cause thats the point where people get back to just living their lives. Doesn't matter what the economic graph looks like at that point. I'd put this at 2010.

P. Breathnach

20goto10 wrote: »

It's not possible. We won't have an economy left if it goes on that long...

Of course we'll have an economy. There may be high unemployment, high taxes, and business and personal bankruptcies. The general standard of living will be lower. But there will be economic activity, and things will eventually get better.

We need to adjust our expectations.

silverharp

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Of course we'll have an economy. There may be high unemployment, high taxes, and business and personal bankruptcies. The general standard of living will be lower. But there will be economic activity, and things will eventually get better.

We need to adjust our expectations.

even 20% unemployment means 80% employment if my maths havnt failed me. I'll still argue that the higher taxes should be avoided as it will create as many problems as it solves, even Keynes didnt agree with that
Private pension schemes will probably be wiped out to a greater or lesser extent so be nice to your kids

population

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Of course we'll have an economy. There may be high unemployment, high taxes, and business and personal bankruptcies. The general standard of living will be lower. But there will be economic activity, and things will eventually get better.

We need to adjust our expectations.

In fairness though my expectations are to be able to pay my bills. That aint happening right now and higher taxes are not going to improve that situation

P. Breathnach

population wrote: »

In fairness though my expectations are to be able to pay my bills. That aint happening right now and higher taxes are not going to improve that situation

I have acknowledged that many individuals will be in trouble. I hope that you accept that I do not rejoice in that.

In the medium term, people will need to re-organise their affairs so that their bills will be smaller.

Tax increases are inevitable. We are in for some hard times. Life isn't fair, and I am generally supportive of measures intended to make it less unfair. But let us be realistic about how the world works: the hard times that are coming will be harder for some than for others. I hope that things will be ameliorated by a sense of mutual support and compassion.

AlekSmart

Buffet is one of these home-spun characters who kept his wealth working for him at all times.
His words do carry a deal of weight,but he might not be as "Sexy" as,mar shampla, Bill Gates.

I would accept his timeframe and his asertion of just how bad it`s going to get.

The extent to which Con-Men,Fraudsters and assorted other Get Rich Quick merchants managed to infiltrate entire Govermental Financial Systems is only slowly being realized.

We in the Emerald Isle still see Fairies and Leprechauns hiding at the bottom of our garden just waiting to hop out and save us all......

jmayo

AlekSmart wrote: »

Buffet is one of these home-spun characters who kept his wealth working for him at all times.
His words do carry a deal of weight,but he might not be as "Sexy" as,mar shampla, Bill Gates.

I would accept his timeframe and his asertion of just how bad it`s going to get.

The extent to which Con-Men,Fraudsters and assorted other Get Rich Quick merchants managed to infiltrate entire Govermental Financial Systems is only slowly being realized.

We in the Emerald Isle still see Fairies and Leprechauns hiding at the bottom of our garden just waiting to hop out and save us all......

I don't think you can compare Buffet and Gates, well apart from being very wealthy.
Buffet has investments all over the place starting off with Berkshire Hathaway (which I believe is not doing so well at moment) and before, whereas Gates made is money through the growth of his own company Microsoft.
BTW not very many would use the term Gates and "Sexy" in the same sentence. Do you work for the "Evil Empire of MS" by any chance ? :eek:

True there are a lot of people living in fairy land here.
It will take years to get Ireland back to anything resembling a proper economy.
By then it will be a very chanegd landscape, we might have just one big indigeneous high street bank and hell we might even have a regulator that does their job :rolleyes:

segaBOY

jmayo wrote: »

I don't think you can compare Buffet and Gates, well apart from being very wealthy.
Buffet has investments all over the place starting off with Berkshire Hathaway (which I believe is not doing so well at moment) and before, whereas Gates made is money through the growth of his own company Microsoft.
BTW not very many would use the term Gates and "Sexy" in the same sentence. Do you work for the "Evil Empire of MS" by any chance ? :eek:

True there are a lot of people living in fairy land here.
It will take years to get Ireland back to anything resembling a proper economy.
By then it will be a very chanegd landscape, we might have just one big indigeneous high street bank and hell we might even have a regulator that does their job :rolleyes:

Don't mean to be the pessimist but could be up to 40 years before our Gov sorts out it's ublic debt-really depends how it's handled over the next few years of global downturn

Mr.Micro

Buffet is usually very astute in his assessments. I honestly do not know where our recovery is going to come from, since our previus wealth appeared to have been generated from our construction boom and all the retail/jobs associated with that and not a lot else. Back to tourism and cead mile failte then with the Aran sweaters?

Dannyboy83

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Buffet is usually very astute in his assessments. I honestly do not know where our recovery is going to come from, since our previus wealth appeared to have been generated from our construction boom and all the retail/jobs associated with that and not a lot else. Back to tourism and cead mile failte then with the Aran sweaters?

Don't give up the game just yet.
Its not the end of the world, far from it.
We just need somebody to overview the damage control/damage limitation.
We will definitely shed people over the next 5-7 years, but they will probably largely be the unemployed.

But we made ourselves, nobody gave us sympathy jobs and this country has been through civil war, plague and famine.
We won't be the generation to throw in the towel because of a bit of poverty.
We still have a highly educated workforce.

We'll just be like the Soviet Union for a few years, reconnect with nature, forget about resteraunts and convertibles etc.

Once we make ourselves competitive again, companies will come back.
Who knows - maybe we'll even make a few of our own!

Dannyboy83

It'll be hard for the people who got us in this mess, because they've lived the life of Reilly.

Personally, I've never had an extravagent life, so I don't really have that much to give up.

LostinBlanch

No start to any recovery for us for at least 3 years (if the current govt runs it's full term). Then add in the figure that Buffet quotes.

Alessandra

It will take us a lot longer than 7 years to turn this situation around.. Perhaps we have even further to sink.. The next decade will be a long and painful one.

segaBOY

Alessandra wrote: »

It will take us a lot longer than 7 years to turn this situation around.. Perhaps we have even further to sink.. The next decade will be a long and painful one.

Ah yea, painful for the general non public sector population if ICTU gets their way that is. A long....painful....drawn out...process with plenty of strikes to boot.

jmayo

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Don't give up the game just yet.
Its not the end of the world, far from it.
We just need somebody to overview the damage control/damage limitation.
We will definitely shed people over the next 5-7 years, but they will probably largely be the unemployed.

But we made ourselves, nobody gave us sympathy jobs and this country has been through civil war, plague and famine.
We won't be the generation to throw in the towel because of a bit of poverty.
We still have a highly educated workforce.

We'll just be like the Soviet Union for a few years, reconnect with nature, forget about resteraunts and convertibles etc.

Once we make ourselves competitive again, companies will come back.
Who knows - maybe we'll even make a few of our own!

Jeeze Dannyboy (why do I keep thinking "broadsword calling dannyboy" - guess the movie
I never knew you were such an optimist ?

I believe there are a few problems with your outlook.
Perviously, such as in 80s or 50s, we had the pressure release valve of emigration, but these days all our old destinations are in deep cr** also.
Don't bother mentioning Oz because they are in trouble as well.
BTW coming from the West of Ireland, we didn't come out of the famine at all well so wouldn't use that example of how we survived

Also the days are gone when we had the competitive edge with low corpo taxes, cheap labour, entry to EU markets and educated workforce.
Also our highly educated workforce is a bit of myth perpetrated by our government, we don't have huge numbers of science and technology graduates.
I seriously think we should be modelling ourselves on the lieks of Finland.

Dannyboy83

jmayo wrote: »

Jeeze Dannyboy (why do I keep thinking "broadsword calling dannyboy" - guess the movie
I never knew you were such an optimist ?

I believe there are a few problems with your outlook.
Perviously, such as in 80s or 50s, we had the pressure release valve of emigration, but these days all our old destinations are in deep cr** also.
Don't bother mentioning Oz because they are in trouble as well.
BTW coming from the West of Ireland, we didn't come out of the famine at all well so wouldn't use that example of how we survived

Also the days are gone when we had the competitive edge with low corpo taxes, cheap labour, entry to EU markets and educated workforce.
Also our highly educated workforce is a bit of myth perpetrated by our government, we don't have huge numbers of science and technology graduates.
I seriously think we should be modelling ourselves on the lieks of Finland.

In truth I agree, I was just trying to raise the spirits a little between the North and all this.
In reality, Fianna Fail have screwed us

harder than a cheap $2 Vietnamese hooker.

:pac:

In fact, we're a lot more fooked than anyone is willing to admit. (well, the people who have to stay here in negative equity, I'm leaving )

jmayo

jmayo wrote: »

I believe there are a few problems with your outlook.
Perviously, such as in 80s or 50s, we had the pressure release valve of emigration, but these days all our old destinations are in deep cr** also.
Don't bother mentioning Oz because they are in trouble as well.
BTW coming from the West of Ireland, we didn't come out of the famine at all well so wouldn't use that example of how we survived

Also the days are gone when we had the competitive edge with low corpo taxes, cheap labour, entry to EU markets and educated workforce.
Also our highly educated workforce is a bit of myth perpetrated by our government, we don't have huge numbers of science and technology graduates.
I seriously think we should be modelling ourselves on the lieks of Finland.

fuk. i knew it was bad but hadn't thought of all that.

population

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

In truth I agree, I was just trying to raise the spirits a little between the North and all this.
In reality, Fianna Fail have screwed us

harder than a cheap $2 Vietnamese hooker.

:pac:

In fact, we're a lot more fooked than anyone is willing to admit. (well, the people who have to stay here in negative equity, I'm leaving )

To where though? The Moon? Isnt the entire planet mired in the economic brown stuff????

Dannyboy83

population wrote: »

To where though? The Moon? Isnt the entire planet mired in the economic brown stuff????

When I said I was leaving, I mean I'm living in a van, down by the river.
http://blip.tv/file/606719

No, in honesty other countries are bad, but not as bad as here. Except Latvia and Zimbabwe.

seachto7

I'd rather be miserable in the sun than here...

sylvestersuntan

This would also be my fear.
Our wealth creation, economic growth or whatever you choose to call what happened here over the last ten years(ish) was a bit of an illusion in my humble opinion as the basis for it was built mainly on massive personal debt and a housing bubble.
Maybe Im being to pessimistic but I cant for the life of me see where we are going to get enough economic growth from to get us even in the ballpark of 6-7% unemployment in a long number of years.

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Buffet is usually very astute in his assessments. I honestly do not know where our recovery is going to come from, since our previus wealth appeared to have been generated from our construction boom and all the retail/jobs associated with that and not a lot else. Back to tourism and cead mile failte then with the Aran sweaters?

johnnyc

silverharp wrote: »

even 20% unemployment means 80% employment if my maths havnt failed me. I'll still argue that the higher taxes should be avoided as it will create as many problems as it solves, even Keynes didnt agree with that
Private pension schemes will probably be wiped out to a greater or lesser extent so be nice to your kids

Your maths are wrong, out of the 80 per cent u will have youngster who cant claim dole and pensioners etc

P. Breathnach

johnnyc wrote: »

Your maths are wrong, out of the 80 per cent u will have youngster who cant claim dole and pensioners etc

Whose maths are wrong? When we speak of 20% unemployment, we speak of 20% of the labour force.

nesf

Everyone's an economist. Christ, people aren't even stating what they'd consider to be "recovery" when they're throwing out how long they think it'll take.

johnnyc

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Whose maths are wrong? When we speak of 20% unemployment, we speak of 20% of the labour force.

I agree with you now. A bit different from the previous statement

antoinolachtnai

There is no need for Ireland to go as deep as other developed countries. The population is very young, well educated and flexible.

We're basically a good operation here. We are a small country, we only need a bit of a gust of wind to get us sailing again.

As an economy (and possibly as a society) we have some serious flatulence and that has to be dealt with. I think we will have to be fairly ruthless.

But if we cut our cost base, this can go really well for us.

Red Hand

nesf wrote: »

Everyone's an economist. Christ, people aren't even stating what they'd consider to be "recovery" when they're throwing out how long they think it'll take.

Hey, like everyone was a pyschologist a few years ago (or more recently, an evolutionary biologist when it comes to male/female interactions;)), everyone is an economist these days when it comes to the government and fallout from the credit crisis.

I personally think, from looking at my toenails, 10-12 years until Ireland recovers.

jmayo

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

There is no need for Ireland to go as deep as other developed countries.

What do you mean ?
Most other developed countries are not in as much sh** as we are.
What other country has seen their tax revenues fallen by huge percentage over the last year, while their public spending grows unabated.
That is not even factoring in the mess that our banking sector is in, the huge growth in unemployment and the fact FDI is leaving our shores due to world wide recession and cheaper operating costs elsewhere.
We have no real indigenous industrial sector that can compete on worldwide markets so we are dependent on FDI.
I suppose compared to Iceland we are not so bad.
Not yet anyway :rolleyes:

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

The population is very young, well educated and flexible.

We're basically a good operation here. We are a small country, we only need a bit of a gust of wind to get us sailing again.

Yes we have a younger population than some countries, but a hell of a lot of them are shouldering huge massive personal debt.
Also from experience they are not as educated as some make out and we do not have enough graduates in things such as technology and science, that we could really build an economy on.
Our operation is not as good as it could be and it is seriously overpriced.
We still have cr** infrastructure.

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

As an economy (and possibly as a society) we have some serious flatulence and that has to be dealt with. I think we will have to be fairly ruthless.

But if we cut our cost base, this can go really well for us.

We need to become much much cheaper and that requires people to lower their salary expectations.