Recovery in 7 years???

antoinolachtnai

Cut our salary expectation, make the transport and distribution systems more efficient so that goods are available at a more reasonable price, and ordinary people can have a good standard of living, then away we go.

It's not quite true that we have a crap infrastructure. We have a lot of roads in place now. The roads themselves are generally in a good state of repair.

It would be nice to have more sci/tech graduates, but there you are.

Having a young population can really get us out of a lot of trouble.

Overall, we can bear the weight of the debt, but I think it will be very hard for some of these people to carry their individual burdens, and I think they should be given a helping hand if at all possible.

Dannyboy83

People, get a grip.
Its a recession and a bad one, but we're not going back to the Stone Age.

p.s. 100,000 people have emigrated

tatty banana

Those people who got us into this mess are criminals and they have become so powerful that they are above the law, So far they have kept us (in the developed world ) qwiet by throwing us a few crumbs but now that the crumb supply has dried up we are becoming aware of their existance. All this wealth comes from the rape of the planet and it has been so greedy and sustained that it is being killed. When that happens then will we realise that we cant eat money. Anyway rest assured, the pigs have that all sewn up too, they have private islands and armies, they will inherit what is left of the planet. If we remain well fed and apathetic and let them get away with it.

oscarBravo

Let's keep the conspiracy theories in the Conspiracy Theories forum, shall we?

yoshytoshy

We really don't have to benchmark ourselves on a system that failed us so badly.
Personally I don't think recovery is the proper term ,it's more a major change needed.

How each country changes ,is how well they'll progress.

Dr Galen

nesf wrote: »

Everyone's an economist. Christ, people aren't even stating what they'd consider to be "recovery" when they're throwing out how long they think it'll take.

and there lies the question........what will recovery look like when it happens? 400 grand for a 1 bedroom apartment in Laois....eh no thanks.

How about stable sustainable growth, across the sectors, no more of this eggs in one basket thing. A vibrant and open economy, based on indigenous companies and DFI. A realistic tax rate, no more pandering to the masses pre-election, with a good spread of tax revenue streams, to at least try and prevent collapses in the future

oscarBravo

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

...no more pandering to the masses pre-election...

That will require a very fundamental (and desperately needed) shakeup of the entire political structure in this country.

IOW: not gonna happen.

Dr Galen

agreed

even as a lefty I was saying for years that all these tax cuts weren't a good idea. Certainly taking the low paid out of the net is a laudable idea but the situation we're in now wereby so many pay no tax at all is going too far, plus cutting income taxes to the bone was a poor and populist idea. We should have had a slightly higher rate of tax and invested it wisely both in the rainy day pension fund and in essential services like infrastructure.

antoinolachtnai

The politics of the sitation could get a lot worse before it gets better. We are headed for a big decline in income, maybe even to Argentinian levels (as are many other countries, it's not just us). That may bring out a nasty streak in our politics.

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

How about stable sustainable growth, across the sectors, no more of this eggs in one basket thing. A vibrant and open economy, based on indigenous companies and DFI. A realistic tax rate, no more pandering to the masses pre-election, with a good spread of tax revenue streams, to at least try and prevent collapses in the future

That's a wishlist and nothing more. You need to figure out some concrete barometer that isn't dependent on ideology. GDP growth returning (no matter how modest) for 2 quarters in a row. Or unemployment dropping back below 10%.

Economic forecasting is extremely difficult in normal conditions. In global times like these it's extremely hard just to predict 6 months time, never mind next year.

K-9

segaBOY wrote: »

Don't mean to be the pessimist but could be up to 40 years before our Gov sorts out it's ublic debt-really depends how it's handled over the next few years of global downturn

The other problem is the 35/40 year mortgages and huge personal debt people took out. Still has to be serviced in times of declining wages.

sylvestersuntan wrote: »

This would also be my fear.
Our wealth creation, economic growth or whatever you choose to call what happened here over the last ten years(ish) was a bit of an illusion in my humble opinion as the basis for it was built mainly on massive personal debt and a housing bubble.
Maybe Im being to pessimistic but I cant for the life of me see where we are going to get enough economic growth from to get us even in the ballpark of 6-7% unemployment in a long number of years.

Yep, it masked the fact our economy was basically stagnant. We were creating jobs in construction, banking and retail and that was hiding the fact that every other sector was losing jobs.

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

There is no need for Ireland to go as deep as other developed countries. The population is very young, well educated and flexible.

We're basically a good operation here. We are a small country, we only need a bit of a gust of wind to get us sailing again.

As an economy (and possibly as a society) we have some serious flatulence and that has to be dealt with. I think we will have to be fairly ruthless.

But if we cut our cost base, this can go really well for us.

A small economy could be looked at another way. Barring the sustainable growth we had in the 60's and 90's, the other 70 odd years have been a disaster. Maybe we are so small, we aren't viable? An exaggeration, but something to bear in mind.

nesf wrote: »

That's a wishlist and nothing more. You need to figure out some concrete barometer that isn't dependent on ideology. GDP growth returning (no matter how modest) for 2 quarters in a row. Or unemployment dropping back below 10%.

Economic forecasting is extremely difficult in normal conditions. In global times like these it's extremely hard just to predict 6 months time, never mind next year.

Even those figures look a long way of.

Dr Galen

nesf wrote: »

That's a wishlist and nothing more. You need to figure out some concrete barometer that isn't dependent on ideology. GDP growth returning (no matter how modest) for 2 quarters in a row. Or unemployment dropping back below 10%.

Economic forecasting is extremely difficult in normal conditions. In global times like these it's extremely hard just to predict 6 months time, never mind next year.

again I'd agree, specific measurement would be required, but then would people/politicians have the patience to wait for 2 quarters of rising figures? In the day and age we are in, patience ain't that common anymore. I can see it now, with the first increase in tax revenue figures or the first drop or even leveling in unemployment figures the meeja bandwagon jumping all over it.

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

again I'd agree, specific measurement would be required, but then would people/politicians have the patience to wait for 2 quarters of rising figures? In the day and age we are in, patience ain't that common anymore. I can see it now, with the first increase in tax revenue figures or the first drop or even leveling in unemployment figures the meeja bandwagon jumping all over it.

The problem is that a lot of the time there isn't a whole lot that politicians can do to improve things but they are forced into action because the public at large expect them to do things. A case in point is public expenditure over the past 7 years.

In 2002 we spent €26.8 billion on current expenditure. In 2008 we spent €44.8 billion. In 6 years we increased current public expenditure by 67%! All based on boom time taxes.

Why was expenditure pushed up so much? Honestly, it's down to people crying out for improvements in Health, Education etc. Money was thrown at these departments (because there was so much of it with generous budget surpluses. Now we're paying for such spendthrift behaviour but we as a people are responsible for this, not just the politicians. At every election we elected the people who promised to boost spending the most in these areas not the people who would save for a rainy day (never mind that there was no mainstream party offering this).

And honestly, it could have been a lot worse if FF didn't run as many surpluses as they did. It's small comfort but we could be looking at a 25 or 30 billion deficit if the (on average) 5-6 billion projected surplus had been ploughed into more current expenditure this year.

Godge

nesf wrote: »

The problem is that a lot of the time there isn't a whole lot that politicians can do to improve things but they are forced into action because the public at large expect them to do things. A case in point is public expenditure over the past 7 years.

In 2002 we spent €26.8 billion on current expenditure. In 2008 we spent €44.8 billion. In 6 years we increased current public expenditure by 67%! All based on boom time taxes.

Why was expenditure pushed up so much? Honestly, it's down to people crying out for improvements in Health, Education etc. Money was thrown at these departments (because there was so much of it with generous budget surpluses. Now we're paying for such spendthrift behaviour but we as a people are responsible for this, not just the politicians. At every election we elected the people who promised to boost spending the most in these areas not the people who would save for a rainy day (never mind that there was no mainstream party offering this).

And honestly, it could have been a lot worse if FF didn't run as many surpluses as they did. It's small comfort but we could be looking at a 25 or 30 billion deficit if the (on average) 5-6 billion projected surplus had been ploughed into more current expenditure this year.

Ten years ago we had 500 special needs assistants in schools. Today the the figure is 6,000. I am not blaming them but whole new areas of public expenditure exploded overnight and became entrenched parts of the budget.

You are right that it is impossible to forecast beyond six months. The first task of the world economy is to create a functioning financial system. Until we see that and how it works, we cannot predict how things are going to go. It is possible that the revolution in the financial system will lead to extremely conservative lending practices which will put large constraints on world economic growth. We wait.

nesf

Godge wrote: »

Ten years ago we had 500 special needs assistants in schools. Today the the figure is 6,000. I am not blaming them but whole new areas of public expenditure exploded overnight and became entrenched parts of the budget.

Oh, indeed. It's always relatively easy to find worthy places to spend Government money which is most of the problem. People want 6,000 special needs assistants and a 20% base tax rate. You can't do it in the long run.


Regarding forecasting Ireland, basically the global economy needs to right itself first. This won't in itself bring us back out of the red but it's a pre-condition to us managing to do it, us having a very export driven economy.

K-9

nesf wrote: »

Oh, indeed. It's always relatively easy to find worthy places to spend Government money which is most of the problem. People want 6,000 special needs assistants and a 20% base tax rate. You can't do it in the long run.

Sums it up in one quote.

K-9

Godge wrote: »

Ten years ago we had 500 special needs assistants in schools. Today the the figure is 6,000. I am not blaming them but whole new areas of public expenditure exploded overnight and became entrenched parts of the budget.

This is the type of expenditure we should be trying to keep.

I'd prefer to see 5,000 HSE Middle management go. Strangely would kick up more fuss over the HSE cuts! Jobs for the boys and all that!

Godge

K-9 wrote: »

This is the type of expenditure we should be trying to keep.

I'd prefer to see 5,000 HSE Middle management go. Strangely would kick up more fuss over the HSE cuts! Jobs for the boys and all that!

That shows a complete lack of understanding of the serious problems of the Irish public sector. Do you realise that we have more children per capita diagnosed with special needs than anywhere else in the world?

The vast majority is genuine but there is something wrong with the system that has brought us from a point of complete under-provision to a situation where we are over-providing in a number of areas but still under-providing in others. Similarly, we have more nurses per hospital bed than anywhere else in the world, trained for four years in how to change a bed.

Front-line services are where the biggest problems are. Nurses that sit in empty wards, teachers that sit in empty classrooms, Gardai driving ministers around the country.

The HSE is a mess but nurses and the INO, junior doctors and the IMO, consultants and the IHCA are as much if not more to blame than the middle management. The problems with middle management were caused by Mary Harney giving in to IMPACT.

gurramok

Does anyone notice a parallel?

Someone mentioned Finland. Yes, Finland had a massive housing bubble which nearly destroyed their economy in the early 90s. (like Ireland is now)

Now, that country is No.1 in europe as a place to invest and innovate. Maybe just maybe we could do the same and emerge as an even stronger national economy in a few years time.(govt policy dependent of course )

Dr Galen

Godge wrote: »

That shows a complete lack of understanding of the serious problems of the Irish public sector. Do you realise that we have more children per capita diagnosed with special needs than anywhere else in the world?

are you suggesting that kids have been misdiagnosed??

The vast majority is genuine

appears you are?

Similarly, we have more nurses per hospital bed than anywhere else in the world,

quote/source?

I'm not going to go OT here, but statements like this show a lack of understanding regarding the healthcare systems of other countries across th world. Not comparing like with like, and pretty much HSE propaganda

trained for four years in how to change a bed.

seriously dude if you think that this is all nurses do :rolleyes:

Front-line services are where the biggest problems are.

agreed

Nurses that sit in empty wards, teachers that sit in empty classrooms,

jesus tell me where these arer will ya? I'll run down to the local A&E and grab half of 30 odd patients waiting on a trolley for a bed. Then on Monday I'll knock around the estate and get some of the parents to transfer the kids in the overcrowded classes across the road to that school.

Gardai driving ministers around the country.

this i agree with. Seems a bit silly. But then really how much does it really affect things. Like 20 Gardai isn't exactly going to make a huge difference is it?

The HSE is a mess but nurses and the INO, junior doctors and the IMO, consultants and the IHCA are as much if not more to blame than the middle management. The problems with middle management were caused by Mary Harney giving in to IMPACT.

There are many threads across boards.ie discussing the HSE and all its faults. This is not really the thread to discuss it, but without digressing too much, your right in that all sides have a role, but again, don't believe all you read

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

I'm not going to go OT here, but statements like this show a lack of understanding regarding the healthcare systems of other countries across th world. Not comparing like with like, and pretty much HSE propaganda

Seems we are only barely beaten by Finland: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_nur-health-nurses

We're crazy high for an "Anglo-Saxon" economy though..


On 2003 figures we were top in the world in nurses per capita according to the OECD: http://books.google.ie/books?id=VwepWgIN_0YC&pg=PA40&lpg=PA40&dq=nurses+per+capita&source=bl&ots=RJnw1-9KgQ&sig=V0bTgRuEZXCU5Sr3kGsY8cr1kpw&hl=en&ei=lOu6SbzbDqKHjAfVmOCwCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=7&ct=result#PPA41,M1

P41 if you're interested

Dr Galen

the stats don't lie. But what they don't mention is that in a lot of countries they have developed other roles which mean that they don't actually need as many nurses.

FYI a lot of research has been done on nurse to patient ratios though and seems to point to lower ratio's having a better outcome for patients

http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/288/16/1987

http://www.icn.ch/matters_rnptratio.htm

http://www.jonajournal.com/pt/re/jona/abstract.00005110-200407000-00005.htm;jsessionid=J6nfps321Tgz0hMltLTlgBn8GqJT4tKFTJsd8vMJBtjdjTBmQ3Dy!-2049359858!181195628!8091!-1

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

the stats don't lie. But what they don't mention is that in a lot of countries they have developed other roles which mean that they don't actually need as many nurses.

Well, we have some nurses in purely administrative roles don't we?

Godge

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

are you suggesting that kids have been misdiagnosed??
appears you are?

Either that or there is a genetic issue but I expected a reaction like yours. It is not possible to have a rational debate on an issue like this.

There are two systems of identifying kids with special needs - one is through NEPS and their in-house educational psychologists, the other is with a private educational psychologists (which one has the greatest diagnosis rate, a statistic I cannot find). Thereafter the Council for Special Needs comes into play and assesses what supports a child needs.

There is not enough sharing of support, there is over-provision. At the same time there are deserving children, usually in deprived areas left out.

did you know that kids with dsylexia get extra time at leaving cert? did you also know that the school with the highest number of dsylexic children sitting the leaving cert was a private fee-paying girls school? when all the evidence suggests boys from lower socio-economic backgrounds are more prone to dyslexia. You won't hear any of that spoken out loud or you won't get it admitted by ministers or politicians or civil servants (I got it from a lower paid civil servant in the Department of Education who was horrified).

Like all systems in Ireland, it is corrupted by money.

Your comments on nurses have been answered already.

There are much more than twenty guards involved in driving minsiters around the country. Each minister has two to allow for rest periods, then there are the guards standing outside ministers' houses, patrolling the Aras like security guards etc. There would be about 100 deployed on duties like that which are not core to the gardai.

Godge

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

the stats don't lie. But what they don't mention is that in a lot of countries they have developed other roles which mean that they don't actually need as many nurses.

FYI a lot of research has been done on nurse to patient ratios though and seems to point to lower ratio's having a better outcome for patients

http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/288/16/1987

http://www.icn.ch/matters_rnptratio.htm

http://www.jonajournal.com/pt/re/jona/abstract.00005110-200407000-00005.htm;jsessionid=J6nfps321Tgz0hMltLTlgBn8GqJT4tKFTJsd8vMJBtjdjTBmQ3Dy!-2049359858!181195628!8091!-1

particularly the one done by the international council for nurses, I guess an international trade union for nurses!!

Godge

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

jesus tell me where these arer will ya? I'll run down to the local A&E and grab half of 30 odd patients waiting on a trolley for a bed. Then on Monday I'll knock around the estate and get some of the parents to transfer the kids in the overcrowded classes across the road to that school.

One example is two-teacher rural primary schools with nine pupils while urban schools just outside DEIS areas struggle.

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

jesus tell me where these arer will ya? I'll run down to the local A&E and grab half of 30 odd patients waiting on a trolley for a bed. Then on Monday I'll knock around the estate and get some of the parents to transfer the kids in the overcrowded classes across the road to that school.

In fairness you know that if we start looking at rural schools and hospitals we'll find horribly underused facilities and underworked staff in some of them. A lot of these institutions were set up when the population in these areas was very different. It's what those class ratios and nurse ratios don't capture.

There were primary schools with 7 kids in them where I was growing up (not the one I went to). All because the area "should" have a primary school etc.

Dr Galen

nesf wrote: »

Well, we have some nurses in purely administrative roles don't we?

of course, same way we have some engineers, accountants, Gardai etc in these roles.

I'd have a problem though with anyone in any career providing an admin role that couldn't be justified, and that includes nursing.

Dr Galen

Either that or there is a genetic issue but I expected a reaction like yours. It is not possible to have a rational debate on an issue like this.

sorry you've picked me up wrong on this. I wasn't being sarcastic at all. It was a genuine question, but one which you've kinda answered in your post, which makes interesting reading. If this is kind of thing is true then it needs to be stopped pronto. But your right, we don't hear about this sort of thing in the media.

There are much more than twenty guards involved in driving minsiters around the country. Each minister has two to allow for rest periods, then there are the guards standing outside ministers' houses, patrolling the Aras like security guards etc. There would be about 100 deployed on duties like that which are not core to the gardai.

i see your point on this alright, if cost savings could be made I'd be all for them too.

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

of course, same way we have some engineers, accountants, Gardai etc in these roles.

I'd have a problem though with anyone in any career providing an admin role that couldn't be justified, and that includes nursing.

Yeah but is it essential that someone in these admin roles be trained as a nurse and get the pay of a nurse? Could we replace some of them with purely admin staff who we can hire cheaper? (as in, if memory serves the admin only roles are among the highest paid grades of nurses)