Will unemployment reach 500,000?

johnnyc

Just wondering do people believe that unemployment will reach half a million? whats your view?

Bobeagleburger

johnnyc wrote: »

Just wondering do people believe that unemployment will reach half a million? whats your view?

yeah, easily I'd imagine. Would be very suprised if it is'nt at that mark come the end of the year

deadhead13

A reuters poll of economists predicts unemployment will reach 12.3% by the end of the year.

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2372661

nesf

deadhead13 wrote: »

A reuters poll of economists predicts unemployment will reach 12.3% by the end of the year.

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2372661

The central bank was predicting an average of 11% unemployment for this year and a 6% drop in GDP.

500K unemployed will depend on how quickly immigrant workers leave the country. That'll shrink the labour force on top of the job losses which will mean the percentage unemployed and jobless numbers may decrease or rise slower than job losses.

I wouldn't be surprised if unemployment reached 500K at some point over 2009/2010.

Johnboy Mac

More than likely. Right at this moment in time the pricks in Government are praying for emirgration.

deadhead13

The exodus has started.

http://www.herald.ie/national-news/100000-workers-leave-ireland-as-pressure-on-jobs-grows-1587316.html

Disease Ridden

The central bank report said that unemployment could be expected to average 11% this year. Given that its only likely to keep rising and that we started off this year at about 8.2% (I think it was) that would still mean it could be as high 14 % in december, no?
I'd say it could easily hit 14% by december to be honest, but not much higher.

Darragh29

nesf wrote: »

The central bank was predicting an average of 11% unemployment for this year and a 6% drop in GDP.

500K unemployed will depend on how quickly immigrant workers leave the country. That'll shrink the labour force on top of the job losses which will mean the percentage unemployed and jobless numbers may decrease or rise slower than job losses.

I wouldn't be surprised if unemployment reached 500K at some point over 2009/2010.

You have to ask why migrant workers would leave this country. Apparently the situation is not that much better abroad regarding the availability of employment and we do have the most generous social welfare payments in the world. It would be a no brainer to me if I was a migrant worker!

nesf

Darragh29 wrote: »

we do have the most generous social welfare payments in the world

Do we? We have Euro prices to match our Euro social hand-outs.

dresden8

nesf wrote: »

The central bank was predicting an average of 11% unemployment for this year and a 6% drop in GDP.

Given that it's 10.4% for February up from 8.3% in December I wouldn't say the Central Bank have too far out on a limb with that 11%.

That recovery or mass exodus would want to happen now.

gurramok

Oh and i reckon the unemployemnt rate will be 14.7%. Emigration will take care of it :mad: if a global recovery begins at the final quarter of the year

Does anyone have a nice table comparing our social welfare rates to the EU/eurozone?

We do know the UK dole is about 54quid for an under25 and about 68quid for over 25's compared to our 204euro.

thebman

The cost of living in the UK is also lower so you can't just quote the amounts given and say we should match that.

You couldn't possibly survive on that amount in Ireland and what other allowances to the unemployed get in Britain with regards to rent allowance or medical cards etc...

gurramok

thebman wrote: »

The cost of living in the UK is also lower so you can't just quote the amounts given and say we should match that.

You couldn't possibly survive on that amount in Ireland and what other allowances to the unemployed get in Britain with regards to rent allowance or medical cards etc...

True. Thats why we need to cut costs across the board so we won't need a high social welfare rate to survive on in the first place.

thebman

gurramok wrote: »

True. Thats why we need to cut costs across the board so we won't need a high social welfare rate to survive on in the first place.

I'm well aware of that and am in favor of it but first you need to reduce the cost of living then the dole otherwise people starve or become homeless or have to beg on the streets while everything else adjusts.

nesf

dresden8 wrote: »

Given that it's 10.4% for February up from 8.3% in December I wouldn't say the Central Bank have too far out on a limb with that 11%.

That recovery or mass exodus would want to happen now.

Recovery ain't going to happen soon. We've quite a few things to sort out before we can expect GDP growth to resume. The exodus is happening, immigration rates are falling and I'd expect this trend to continue.

gurramok wrote: »

True. Thats why we need to cut costs across the board so we won't need a high social welfare rate to survive on in the first place.

Easier said than done. So, do we cut benefits first which will cause prices to fall or do we wait for prices to fall before we cut benefits (and run up a massive deficit in the mean time)?

thebman

I think the best way is to reduce ESB (done soon anyway) and reduce Line rental on phones and then cut social welfare as this will no starve people on welfare.

The decrease in Welfare will hopefully send a message to shops to lower their prices so that people on the dole can afford goods as they will then shop around to reduce the effects of the decrease in welfare. If shops do reduce their prices then welfare can be reduced further again.

I think that is the only way you could do it and hope to inflict as little pain as possible on those on welfare.

gurramok

The former i believe as most of the rest of the workforce are either on a payfreeze/paycut which affects prices anyway so those on benefits won't feel hard done by seeing prices drop as a result.

diverdriver

It might be an idea to cut some social welfare payments and means testing others. But the ordinary dole should not be cut. At one stage I was out of work on the dole. I lived with my Mother at the time and was very careful. I didn't even drink. Yet I always ran out of money even though in effect she was subsidising me. Imagine if you will, someone renting or with a mortgage, with kids. If both me and my wife ended up on the dole right now, we would probably lose our house and have to go St Vincent de Paul. The dole right now is not sufficient, simple as that. Cutting it while we have still massive waste and inefficiencies in the public service would be criminal.

Some of you really need a reality check if you think the current dole payments are generous. Try living on that much money for a while.:mad:

nesf

diverdriver wrote: »

Some of you really need a reality check if you think the current dole payments are generous. Try living on that much money for a while.:mad:

I've friends living on it and disability, and while I wouldn't call any of their lives luxurious they aren't on the bread line either. It's when people start expecting the dole to pay for luxuries that we get into trouble with its level.

Should the dole be capable of feeding someone, paying for a 20 a day smoking habit and a trip to the off-licence each week?

thebman

nesf wrote: »

I've friends living on it and disability, and while I wouldn't call any of their lives luxurious they aren't on the bread line either. It's when people start expecting the dole to pay for luxuries that we get into trouble with its level.

Should the dole be capable of feeding someone, paying for a 20 a day smoking habit and a trip to the off-licence each week?

Nah I don't smoke but yeah to the rest of it

Dannyboy83

nesf wrote: »

I've friends living on it and disability, and while I wouldn't call any of their lives luxurious they aren't on the bread line either. It's when people start expecting the dole to pay for luxuries that we get into trouble with its level.

Should the dole be capable of feeding someone, paying for a 20 a day smoking habit and a trip to the off-licence each week?

I haven't smoked for 3 days because I can't afford to (and I just got a 3% pay rise). I never drink alcohol.
It seems quite mad that people on the dole can afford to.

On the other hand,
A box of cigarettes is E8.10 in the shops or E4 on the black market.
8.10 by 7 days = E56.70
or E28 on the black market (actually E40 because you buy in 10 blocks)

Due to the demand on the black market at the moment though, its very difficult to actually buy any, because everyone is stocking up.:(

And a lot of the people who actually brought them in, are emigrating.
I guess that means they will have to come across the NI border or something.

Considering the price of cigarettes and alcohol is set to increase
& Social Welfare payments will be going down, its likely the price on the black market will be adjusted to E4.50 per box.

Somebody is going to clean up big time.

diverdriver

diverdriver wrote: »

It might be an idea to cut some social welfare payments and means testing others. But the ordinary dole should not be cut. At one stage I was out of work on the dole. I lived with my Mother at the time and was very careful. I didn't even drink. Yet I always ran out of money even though in effect she was subsidising me. Imagine if you will, someone renting or with a mortgage, with kids. If both me and my wife ended up on the dole right now, we would probably lose our house and have to go St Vincent de Paul. The dole right now is not sufficient, simple as that. Cutting it while we have still massive waste and inefficiencies in the public service would be criminal.

Some of you really need a reality check if you think the current dole payments are generous. Try living on that much money for a while.:mad:

I'm sorry but what were you spending the money on then?
The dole isn't there to pay peoples mortgages. If you have kids you get children's allowance too. Also if you rent you can apply for rent allowance. While as another poster said life isn't exactly luxurious on the dole, it's definitely comfortable.

Personally I would like to see a Danish style system where you get out of it what you pay into it. I don't see why someone paying 20k in tax each year should end up with the same as a serial dole sponge when it comes down to it.

Pride Fighter

If you consider those in full time education I'd say we are well over 500,000. With unemployment at 10.4% atm I think we will see 18-19% by years end.

Daithinski

gurramok wrote: »

True. Thats why we need to cut costs across the board

Oh, ok. Thats sounds easy. How come no one thought of this before?

When thats done, we can then half the the dole payments and then all the dole-y's can go live in a magical gumdrop house in lollipop lane.

Sorted.

Daithinski

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

I'm sorry but what were you spending the money on then?
The dole isn't there to pay peoples mortgages. If you have kids you get children's allowance too. Also if you rent you can apply for rent allowance. While as another poster said life isn't exactly luxurious on the dole, it's definitely comfortable.

Personally I would like to see a Danish style system where you get out of it what you pay into it. I don't see why someone paying 20k in tax each year should end up with the same as a serial dole sponge when it comes down to it.

Actually the dole is there to pay for mortgages. The mortgages of landlords with their multiple properties. Thats who gets the rent allowance in case you hadn't figured that one out.

Strangely you think its ok to pay landlords mortgages who are making a profit, but you think its wrong to pay the mortgage on a house that someone actually owns and lives in. That perverse and cruel in my opinion.

The Danish system you get what you pay in? Like a savings account? The richer you are the more you are looked after?

Your ideas seem to favour the rich. The rich landlords and the well paid employees. I assume (probably wrongly) that you are in a well paid job and possibly own a second house as you are choosing the measures that would suit you?

If the PD's were running the country this is probably what would happen.