The Property market has reached the bottom!

SoupyNorman

That article would not look out of place as a 3am post by a drunk boardsie.

No way are we near the bottom yet, the last stand for the developers seems to be these ridiculous Rent to buy gimmicks.

I viewed the Cannon Hall development a couple of weeks ago, nice development with a high quality finish throughout. Prices for a 2bed off the ground floor started at 315k, really went out of curiosity as AIB have advised me that they will loan me 92% of 260k which is 239k. What struck me as farcical was an email the girlfriend received off the estate agent which went along the lines of 'Hurry we only have a few left, if you put a deposit down Saturday you'll be guaranteed one', now we never showed an iota of interest throughout the viewing nor afterwards and my Girlfriends email was the only contact information they had for us.

It was abundantly clear they are on their knees and I can respect that but I wish they would show a little respect to the potential buyer and either tell the truth or PUT THE F**KING prices down as they are acting in a way that is ever more detrimental to their profession and livelihood.

I've a strong feeling that if I went ahead with the mortgage application, 260k would be a very strong bargaining tool to lots of price brackets but I dont feel the need to try for mortgage approval yet as the prices have a ways to go yet (downwards of course). My objective is buy for a cheap as possible, have a developer glad to take 150k for a property. Now that may not happen but I cant stand people saying "Ah prices will never go that low" as there is now way to tell, the market will do what it has to and no amount of artificial intervention will dissuade its course. I would consider myself lucky to be in the position I am in and I have sympathy to a point for people with more negative equity then square inches in their property but blowing smoke up each others holes to try debuff the cold hard truth is not healthy.

silverharp

nouggatti wrote: »

How long is a piece of string?

I'd reckon three years at most for it to bottom out, two years of recession, one year of some economic growth, and then some movement in the market upwards?

Japanese house prices are 2/3rds of the 1990 levels , whats the rush in trying to find a bottom

The_Conductor

silverharp wrote: »

Japanese house prices are 2/3rds of the 1990 levels , whats the rush in trying to find a bottom

They are now at 2/3 of their 1989 levels- with some districts (such as Ginza) still at the 45-50% levels. Prices are moreover falling once again. Keep in mind that some commercial property in Tokyo was by 2004 trading at .8 to 1.1% of its December 1989 values- almost a 99% fall in prices. Residential property did fare a little better- but not much......

I'm not suggesting we are going to have a situation here which can be compared to the Japanese explosion- but if it were comparable- the pain has hardly begun to start yet.........

MyHat.ie

Straight-talking, Karl Deeter, of Irish Mortgage Brokers wrote about bottoms from a slightly broader perspective earlier in the week. He points out that there is a lot of intervention (stimulus packages etc) going on so the general recession may not last as long as historical collapses. In terms of property, intervention is a bad idea, but once the economy itself is stabilised it may well bring some steadiness into property prices instead of the relentless fall we've been recording week on week for the past year (Dublin 2-bed apartments down from 331k last week to 322k this week). When we see two months of weekly price stability we'll call it, but of course because our calculations are based on advertised prices for a time it may only reflect agents' confidence as viewings go up and offers come in. If sales don't follow we may well see another period of further price cuts before the true bottom is reached.

jackal

Isabel seems to be mistaking the annual run up to the spring selling season (dismal as it has been for the past few years) as some sort of sign that the bottom has been reached. She is either incompetent - as a property journo she should know this happens every year - or she is just cheerleading.

Just like the articles in the U.K. press last month when prices marginally rose for one month (due to extremely low volume of transactions) before resuming their plunge. Plenty of Talking Heads were quick to herald it as the second coming.

Jan 2009 "Halifax Announces surprise rise in House Prices" http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/feb/05/halifax-house-prices-rise

Feb 2009 "2.3% fall wipes out January rise" http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/mar/06/house-prices-mortgages

jmayo

mrgaa1 wrote: »

interesting article - obviously previous posters didn't bother to read it as it highlights the well known issues with credit, job security etc... There has been a marked interest renewal in houses although I can see further price drops in areas that are still over priced. But there are areas where house prices will not drop any further - they will not increase either for quite some time. There are a lot of people fed up with dead rent money - the rent-to-buy schemes offer hope for those who wish to buy and live long-term in a home. Lets hope we are near there as our very fragile recovery relies heavily on the housing market moving in a postive way. Perhaps those who love to see our country on its knees would take a look and say to themselves perhaps our country needs support and encouragement - not faceless attacks.

Ah at last someone that can see the light, a true visionary.
If only more people thought like you we would still have a truly great property market and a truly world leading economy.

BTW were you sharing a house in Leitrim with a few Chinese gentlemen lately ?

Climate Expert

Its bad enough that she thinks its has reached the bottom but she actually says the market has overcorrected.

Firetrap

She's probably writing what she's been told to write :rolleyes:

leonardjos

It is often said that the stock market and other asset markets are governed by greed and fear. I do think that we are starting to see a little bit of greed coming back into the market. People who have cash and feel safe in their jobs (10% unemployment still means leaves the other 90% in employment) are starting to feel that this coming year could be a once in a generation chance to pick up a bargain. Hence the increase in viewings etc.

But even the 'greedy' feel very unsure about the real value of property at the moment, and are still sitting on the fence. Its still going to take a lot to bring confidence back into the market. Fear is still dominating but not by as big a gap anymore.

SoupyNorman

leonardjos wrote: »

It is often said that the stock market and other asset markets are governed by greed and fear. I do think that we are starting to see a little bit of greed coming back into the market. People who have cash and feel safe in their jobs (10% unemployment still means leaves the other 90% in employment) are starting to feel that this coming year could be a once in a generation chance to pick up a bargain. Hence the increase in viewings etc.

But even the 'greedy' feel very unsure about the real value of property at the moment, and are still sitting on the fence. Its still going to take a lot to bring confidence back into the market. Fear is still dominating but not by as big a gap anymore.

The greed is perpetuated by the speculators and developers, not the purchaser. How can you be deemed as greedy buying a property today?

Your post is very muddled me thinks. (I'm open to correction)

Freddie59

bravestarr082 wrote: »

The greed is perpetuated by the speculators and developers, not the purchaser. How can you be deemed as greedy buying a property today?

Exactly.

It is not greed. It is reality.

The specuvestors, developers, banks, and the Government all colluded in creating this bubble, and people like us (sold in November and waiting for prices to drop further) are NOT going to part with hard-earned cash at this point in time. We took a chance selling. It paid off.

Do you really think people are just going to rush out an pay above the odds? FTBs in particular are looking closely at what happened to their peers in the past few years, and are conscious of not letting it happen to them.

silverharp

smccarrick wrote: »

They are now at 2/3 of their 1989 levels- with some districts (such as Ginza) still at the 45-50% levels. Prices are moreover falling once again. Keep in mind that some commercial property in Tokyo was by 2004 trading at .8 to 1.1% of its December 1989 values- almost a 99% fall in prices. Residential property did fare a little better- but not much......

I'm not suggesting we are going to have a situation here which can be compared to the Japanese explosion- but if it were comparable- the pain has hardly begun to start yet.........

you might enjoy the attached chart cant insert it for some reaosn, compares timelines to the US market. Agreed with your numbers I meant to say still 2/3rds off based on high end apartments I came across going for €1m that were €3m at the peak

johnnyskeleton

Freddie59 wrote: »

Exactly.

It is not greed. It is reality.

The specuvestors, developers, banks, and the Government all colluded in creating this bubble, and people like us (sold in November and waiting for prices to drop further) are NOT going to part with hard-earned cash at this point in time. We took a chance selling. It paid off.

Do you really think people are just going to rush out an pay above the odds? FTBs in particular are looking closely at what happened to their peers in the past few years, and are conscious of not letting it happen to them.

I agree. What a lot of potential vendors and estate agents fail to realise is that the potential purchasors are not naieve first time buyers who will buy anything on the basis of "prices always go up", but instead most people who will actually make an offer and follow through with it are like old man Freddie here, but the thing is, the price has to come down. He can wait. The vendors can't. Simple as.

gurramok

Basically, the only FTB's left are mostly those who are 'stingy'. They want values out of their purchases and are in no hurry to fork out over the odds for their gaff.

SoupyNorman

gurramok wrote: »

Basically, the only FTB's left are mostly those who are 'stingy'. They want values out of their purchases and are in no hurry to fork out over the odds for their gaff.

I fit snugly into that category, although 'sensible' is a more appropriate adjective then 'stingy'.

gurramok

bravestarr082 wrote: »

I fit snugly into that category, although 'sensible' is a more appropriate adjective then 'stingy'.

True. Stingy in the eyes of the vendors.

I think overall, the market has run out of the 'don't care what the consequences are, want to get on the ladder at all costs' FTB's

So yes, ye are sensible and too right to be.

dbyrne

A house is only worth the price someone is willing to pay for it.
If you think a house is advertised at 500k and you think it is worth 500k, then pay 500k but if you think it is only worth 400k then only offer 400k. What happened in the past is that we all paid the price for the boom and it is now coming back to us, house prices will settle and sort themselves out in the next 2 or 3 years. Some people are still looking for the prices that were there 2 years ago and expect to get it and cannot understand why their houses have been on the market for the last year and have got very little viewings, the reason is that your house is over priced and no one is willing to pay their price you are looking for it, therefore you house is not worth x k that you think it is.
Also if you are selling a house make an effort, clean it up, give it a paint, take the rubbish and junk that clutters up your house and get rid of it. Look at all the UK TV shows telling people how to sell their houses, some people need to watch these and copy their example.
Go to daft, take south dublin for example check the pdf brocheurs and you will see that houses that were put on the market for 900k - 950k for example are now on the site for 600k and some are settling for less. If things keep going the way they are you will pick up that 900k house for maybe 400k, and if thats what you are willing to pay for it then thats whats its worth.

krugerrand

Loxosceles wrote: »

The price of a mortgage is not supposed to take up more than 30% of gross monthly income of any buyers, and the full price of a house should not exceed 125% of the combined yearly incomes of all buyers....[snip]...And the reason that I know what I'm talking about is a) my income is in US holdings and development and b) I used to work at Bord Pleanála.

Loxosceles, I read with surprise your assertion that the full price of a house should not exceed 125% of the combined yearly incomes of all buyers ! Are you sure about that ???

blast05

Loxosceles, I read with surprise your assertion that the full price of a house should not exceed 125% of the combined yearly incomes of all buyers ! Are you sure about that ???

I wouldn't agree with that.
Take a couple on 40K each who take out a mortgage of 100K (125% of their combined incomes) over 25 years and fix it at 5% (you could get a 10 year fixed of 4.65% at the moment) ..... well given that their combined take home pay per month is approx €5,000 then the mortgage repayment (which does not factor in interest relief) at €565 is only ~11% of take home pay. I would argue that a 22%-25% figure is sustainable (which of course would reduce over time in a normal functioning economy with an ~2% inflation) meaning imho a house price of ~250% of combined pay is feasable.

20goto10

Blah blah blah I want a 3 bed semi d for nuttin' and anybody who disagrees with me is an estate agent.

People can afford nice houses. I know 2 couples who have bought nicer houses than mine for cheaper than what I paid in 2002. If you can't afford one, then tough luck for not having a decent paid job. Fact is, most people on here will never be able to buy a house no matter what prices are because banks would not touch you with a barge pole. Talk down the economy as much as you like, those of us who actually have an input will get on with living our lives thank you very much.

martian1980

20goto10 wrote: »

Blah blah blah I want a 3 bed semi d for nuttin' and anybody who disagrees with me is an estate agent.

People can afford nice houses. I know 2 couples who have bought nicer houses than mine for cheaper than what I paid in 2002. If you can't afford one, then tough luck for not having a decent paid job. Fact is, most people on here will never be able to buy a house no matter what prices are because banks would not touch you with a barge pole. Talk down the economy as much as you like, those of us who actually have an input will get on with living our lives thank you very much.

that's a nice generalisation you've got right there - I have the 20% deposit and the salary to buy a 3 bed semi in most areas of dublin right now. I value very much what people bring to this discussion - it's saved me from making a huge mistake in the last few years.

20goto10

martian1980 wrote: »

that's a nice generalisation you've got right there - I have the 20% deposit and the salary to buy a 3 bed semi in most areas of dublin right now. I value very much what people bring to this discussion - it's saved me from making a huge mistake in the last few years.

I'm sorry but how exactly do you talk about the property market without generalising? You can buy a 3 bed semi d in most areas, so like I say people can afford nice houses. There are far more people like you than those who cannot afford anything. and those who cannot afford it, simply cannot afford it and for most of them they never will. I don't see why they have the god given right to a house. They should get onto the council about social housing. And I'm not generalising anyway, I'm talking specifically of the type on boards who have been talking down our economy for the best part of 2 years now and will not be happy until there is martial law on the streets and General Gilmore pledges a house for every sheep in the country.

I don't for one second believe we have hit bottom just yet. Simply because there are still chancers out there over pricing their homes and I speak in particualr of FF backed property developers. But I do believe it all depends on the particular property. There are some which are a bargain now and will not get any cheaper, thats for sure.

quozl

It's strange how you give nothing to support your argument, but the people you're disagreeing with give plenty to support theirs, 20goto10.

That makes your argument worthless. You might be right, you might be wrong, but how foolish would someone be to listen to you when you give no support for your viewpoint?

As an aside, I had a property, I sold it, because I believe there's a long way to go. I could afford to buy another one now, but why would I, when I believe there's a long way to go? I may be wrong, I may be right, but at least I have reasons for my viewpoint.

Feel free to check my other posts for why, but basically:

Biggest global recession since the 1930s.
>400,000 out of work, more to come.
Mini-budget raising taxes and hence reducing affordability.
Deaths, divorce and default haven't had a chance yet to properly force asking prices down.
Unsustainable (and unhealthy for ireland) house cost compared to the average national wage.

Etc, etc. I won't bother myself putting forward anymore arguments until you put the effort in to try and come up with some kind of basis for your view. It's also noticable how the people disagreeing with you AREN'T the poverty stricken layabouts you delude yourself into thinking they are.

martian1980

20goto10 wrote: »

I'm sorry but how exactly do you talk about the property market without generalising? You can buy a 3 bed semi d in most areas, so like I say people can afford nice houses. There are far more people like you than those who cannot afford anything. and those who cannot afford it, simply cannot afford it and for most of them they never will. I don't see why they have the god given right to a house. They should get onto the council about social housing. And I'm not generalising anyway, I'm talking specifically of the type on boards who have been talking down our economy for the best part of 2 years now and will not be happy until there is martial law on the streets and General Gilmore pledges a house for every sheep in the country.

I don't for one second believe we have hit bottom just yet. Simply because there are still chancers out there over pricing their homes and I speak in particualr of FF backed property developers. But I do believe it all depends on the particular property. There are some which are a bargain now and will not get any cheaper, thats for sure.

I was referring to your generalisation about posters on here, the majority of whom, you presume, could not afford a house. It's a bit insulting. Whether people decided to purchase before now or not is not just a question of whether they could afford a house or not - lots of people did some research and decided that houses were overvalued and that the prices were not sustainable.

20goto10

quozl wrote: »

It's strange how you give nothing to support your argument, but the people you're disagreeing with give plenty to support theirs, 20goto10.

That makes your argument worthless. You might be right, you might be wrong, but how foolish would someone be to listen to you when you give no support for your viewpoint?

As an aside, I had a property, I sold it, because I believe there's a long way to go. I could afford to buy another one now, but why would I, when I believe there's a long way to go? I may be wrong, I may be right, but at least I have reasons for my viewpoint.

Feel free to check my other posts for why, but basically:

Biggest global recession since the 1930s.
>400,000 out of work, more to come.
Mini-budget raising taxes and hence reducing affordability.
Deaths, divorce and default haven't had a chance yet to properly force asking prices down.
Unsustainable (and unhealthy for ireland) house cost compared to the average national wage.

Etc, etc. I won't bother myself putting forward anymore arguments until you put the effort in to try and come up with some kind of basis for your view. It's also noticable how the people disagreeing with you AREN'T the poverty stricken layabouts you delude yourself into thinking they are.

My opinion is no less worthless than anyone elses on here. I don't care what figures people come out with, the fact is its all down to individual circumstances and the individual property. Now so more than ever. People can argue against it all they like but those that are genuinely out there shopping around are finding value for money. I don't need to back that up with quotes by the celebrity economist of the day. People can get out there and see for themselves. In fact, there is no other way to judge the market. That is one fact nobody can disagree with. People on boards are great googlers....it doesn't mean sh!t unless you've been out there.

20goto10

martian1980 wrote: »

I was referring to your generalisation about posters on here.

The type of person I was referring to was made clear in my opening statement "Blah blah blah I want a 3 bed semi d for nuttin' and anybody who disagrees with me is an estate agent." You know, the type you see on boards spouting any old sh!te they can google together to fuel their mission of driving down prices to fall in line with their below par salaries.

Duckjob

20goto10 wrote: »

The type of person I was referring to was made clear in my opening statement "Blah blah blah I want a 3 bed semi d for nuttin' and anybody who disagrees with me is an estate agent." You know, the type you see on boards spouting any old sh!te they can google together to fuel their mission of driving down prices to fall in line with their below par salaries.

You're presuming to know a lot about other posters on boards of whose individual circumstances you actually know nothing.

I've seen previous posts from you that came across as well thought-out (even if I didn't necessarily agree with them), but this currently batch of vitriolic spew just comes across as foolish and quite bitter.

Personally I think we're a way off the bottom yet. I;ve just got mortgage approval currently, for a lot more than I would need to borrow). The only offers I'll be making at the moment would currently be considered "lowball". I don't believe they will be in a years time. In the meantime, if somebody bites well and good, if not, not a problem.

Ironbars

Duckjob wrote: »

Personally I think we're a way off the bottom yet. I;ve just got mortgage approval currently, for a lot more than I would need to borrow). The only offers I'll be making at the moment would currently be considered "lowball". I don't believe they will be in a years time. In the meantime, if somebody bites well and good, if not, not a problem.

+1

MyHat.ie

Just to let you know that by coincidence we recorded small but statistically significant price increases in all three of our price indices (Dublin 2-bed apartments, 3-bed semis & 4-bed detached) this week for the FIRST TIME SINCE September 2008.

I'd be confident this doesn't represent the bottom, but it's funny that such a rarity should coincide with Isabel's declaration!

quozl

I can hear the dead cat bounce from here.