The Property market has reached the bottom!

ntlbell

El Stuntman wrote: »

property is not the only game in town

ah, but it's the only one that always goes up :cool:

20goto10

gurramok wrote: »

You're forgetting something. The market will force a price on the house.

A buyer in 2001 like the poster does not want to sell it. All it takes is a neighbour who has to sell or just doesnt give a fiddlers what he/she gets as long as it sells and then you will have a price(valued) for that type of house.

The other scenario is that the seller will be waiting many many long years for the price they want and they do not want that either do they?

The market can't force you to do anything. If someone doesn't like the price its quite simple, they don't sell or else they can rent it out. People aren't stupid. Like I said, some unfortunate people will have to sell if they can no longer afford the repayments. We have 11% unemployment. That's 89% who are still employed. And of those 11% there are plenty who have bought so long ago they can probably pay their mortgage using unemployment benefit. Others are couples who can get by on 1 salary and yes a small minority will be forced to sell. The scaremongering figures simply do not add up. People are taking an overwhelming (or should I say underwhelming) minority and talking as if its the majority of people and as if we're all in danger of it happening to us. The government have a problem, the economy as a whole doesn't other than to say we have to get in line with the rest of Europe on a competitive edge. Thats good news isn't it? About time.

Senna

20goto10 wrote: »

People are taking an overwhelming (or should I say underwhelming) minority and talking as if its the majority of people and as if we're all in danger of it happening to us.

Your right, its a majority (slim) of private sellers than wont have to drop their price to a level that the house will sell. But these sellers wont be selling in the next 10 years with an attitude like that, good luck to them i say.
But with 70k properties for sale (i would say more) there are plenty of seller that have to sell, and plenty of banks that will do the selling for them. These tranactions will set the market price and leave stuborn sellers wishing they had of sold at the 2009/10 price in the future.
The amount of this majority of sellers is dropping by the day, for every 20k people that are joining the dole each month, how many do you think have houses? How many will be able to make ends meet till they find employment? There are sellers that can sit on a house indefinatly but the current economy is not making this possible for all (many).

irish_bob

whats being over looked here is the change in mindset we are seeing and will most likely continue to see regarding property
one of the key things that drove the property boom was property lust , a disease which effects the irish like almost no other nationality , when kids growing up in the next few years witness the pain thier parents who are mortgaged up to thier eyes have to go through , do you think it will entice them to pay 10 times thier anual income for a house

it could take 20 years for property to reach the prices it peaked at in 2006

ntlbell

20goto10 wrote: »

The market can't force you to do anything. If someone doesn't like the price its quite simple, they don't sell or else they can rent it out. People aren't stupid. Like I said, some unfortunate people will have to sell if they can no longer afford the repayments. We have 11% unemployment. That's 89% who are still employed. And of those 11% there are plenty who have bought so long ago they can probably pay their mortgage using unemployment benefit. Others are couples who can get by on 1 salary and yes a small minority will be forced to sell. The scaremongering figures simply do not add up. People are taking an overwhelming (or should I say underwhelming) minority and talking as if its the majority of people and as if we're all in danger of it happening to us. The government have a problem, the economy as a whole doesn't other than to say we have to get in line with the rest of Europe on a competitive edge. Thats good news isn't it? About time.

11% and rising at 1500 being made unemployed every day and growing.
We're seeing all sectors start to introduce pay freezes or pay cuts

some sectors are getting hit for up to 30% decreases.

we have a budget around the corner that looks like it's going to remove a lot more from your disposable income.

possible loss or reduction in child care benifits etc and social welfare

we have the highest personal debt in Europe

Did you mention something about good news?

blast05

even at the most basic level, a rational person will not purchase something if the chances are it will be cheaper in the future.

I bought a new TV in January. I knew in advance that the exact same TV would almost certainly be a good bit cheaper in 12 months time but i bought it. I must be irrational.

This includes the 200,000 people that have been made unemployed so lets say 50,000 home owners are currently at severe risk of losing the homes. (after the current gov. imposed stay of execution) these house will also go to auction as the bank will write off the loss.

Lets say 10,000 ... i plucked that figure out of the air too ..... not too many in SR Technics of the age where they would typically have big mortgages for example

These tranactions will set the market price and leave stuborn sellers wishing they had of sold at the 2009/10 price in the future.

.
You are missing the 4 letter abbreviation 'imho' at the end of that sentence.

11% and rising at 1500 being made unemployed every day and growing.

17,000 joined the live register in March which means about 550 per day in March. 1500 versus 550 ...... your maths ties in with a lot of the mad doomsday predictions being made by people on your side of the debate .... and for the record, the trend is not increasing like you suggest - look at the figures for Jan, Feb and March and you'll see the trend is actually the other way

the most frequently quoted estimate of empties is 350,000 so that's twenty year's supply

Should that not read "the most frequently quoted estimate by those who hope prices keep dropping...... " Whether they do or not, or whether there are 350K empties or not does not matter. The key thing is how many are for sale ? and when you factor out all of the houses in the dozens and dozens of small regional towns (in Mayo where i am from i am thinking of at least 10 towns in this category) where people will not want to live and you end up with a figure that is a heck of a lot lower ..... i'd hazard a guess (like you) and knock the 3 of your figure ...............
And while there are these dozens and dozens of regional towns like i mentioned with vast oversupplies there are equally some areas where there will be a shortgage before too long which will trigger increases in rents etc - i am thinking of anywhere within say a 1 mile radius of UCD or UCC or NUIG as vast tracts of this years grads decide to do postgrads given the lack of job opportunities in the current market and will compete with the thousands of 'freshers' for accomodation next September.

El Stuntman

blast, you clearly have strong views on the likely direction of house prices as do I

any interest in a spread bet? I'll obviously take the 'under'

francish

quozl wrote: »

LOL, I for one read it, and the fact that she mentioned credit is hard to get doesn't mean she's not talking out of her a$$ when she says we've reached the bottom.

You argument for it being the bottom is that people who disagree are un-patriotic.

That is a lazy ad homimem argument mrgaa1.

You give no reasons to support your argument? Here are some to actually support mine:

On-going job losses - 400K on the dole was predicted for end of this year, we've already passed that.
Tax increases in mini-budget in april. Lower affordability.
Pension Levy - Lower affordability.
Deaths, Divorce and Default, as mentioned by the lovely Isabel. These are forced sales which will set the market value of properties.
100 to 300K overhang of empty properties, depending on what estimates you believe. Even at lower end (which I don't believe) that is massive.
Developers currently propped up by banks, as banks can't afford them to go under. This can only be a tempoary measure. Developers will go under, and their stocks will be liquadated at whatever price can be fetched for them.


This is the most childish of arguments. What our country needs is for the housing bubble to be corrected.

The reason things are so bad is because the correction was so delayed and the bubble got so big.
The sooner we fix it, the sooner we can get back on our feet. Trying to delay the inevitable will only prolong things.

International norms are for mortgages to be 3 1/2 times salary. We had some of 10 times salary!

Do you truely believe that is a healthy state for a nation?

There is a reason we are the most indebted nation in europe, and debt is not wealth.


You suggestion for getting out of this mess is that we need to return to being a property based economy? Who needs these new properties? How do we fund it? With more foreign debt?

+1
Article is terrible. While Irish Times had conflict in boom years with huge property add revenues, dont understand how they could let that article go to print now bubble has burst.

bangersandmash

blast05 wrote: »

there are equally some areas where there will be a shortgage before too long which will trigger increases in rents etc - i am thinking of anywhere within say a 1 mile radius of UCD or UCC or NUIG as vast tracts of this years grads decide to do postgrads given the lack of job opportunities in the current market and will compete with the thousands of 'freshers' for accomodation next September.

I think you might be entering the realm of guesswork in what you say above. Intuitively you would think that many students will be choosing to do postgrads in the current climate. From what I hear from those working in admissions in this area the opposite is true. A significant number of students rely to a certain degree financially on their partner or family during a masters or PhD. For many people a postgrad has now become a luxury that they cannot afford, even if they have the ability, desire and motivation to achieve it. The top Irish universities are increasingly relying on well-heeled students from US and Asia to fill postgrad vacancies. This trend is likely to become more pronounced as disposable income decreases here while third/fourth-level education becomes more costly.

pisslips

Just to add I think ,regarding funding for postgrads, a good percentage of it basically goes to Irish students (guessing about 30%) and most of it has to go to E.U. students(SFI grants, Ircset, Marie Curie).

Then you do get some rich or externally funded people.

The U.K. for example give the vast majority of their funding to people from the U.K. and only pay fees for E.U. scholarships. I'd imagine it's to prevent brain drain.

Anyway, just an aside.

With regards the property market, I believe the guy was right to bring up the point of regional demand.People will always need houses in Dublin but nobody is going to buy a holiday home in Westport or even a commuter house in Laois, Westmeath, Offaly. Nor is anyone going to splash out on an apartment in Leixlip.

The only people forced to sell are the ones holding multiple properties but I'm sure there's plenty of them, however much less in desireable areas.

A house in Killiney will always have massive demand and the super-rich are just less super-rich.

I guess it's great for first time buyers except that they are the ones who are most like to lose their jobs or take pay reductions.

I'd imagine a slow death with a very slow recovery since the biggest thing people will take from the experience is fear including developers.

pwd

pisslips wrote: »

Just to add I think ,regarding funding for postgrads, a good percentage of it basically goes to Irish students (guessing about 30%) and most of it has to go to E.U. students(SFI grants, Ircset, Marie Curie).

Then you do get some rich or externally funded people.

The U.K. for example give the vast majority of their funding to people from the U.K. and only pay fees for E.U. scholarships. I'd imagine it's to prevent brain drain.

Anyway, just an aside.

With regards the property market, I believe the guy was right to bring up the point of regional demand.People will always need houses in Dublin but nobody is going to buy a holiday home in Westport or even a commuter house in Laois, Westmeath, Offaly. Nor is anyone going to splash out on an apartment in Leixlip.

The only people forced to sell are the ones holding multiple properties but I'm sure there's plenty of them, however much less in desireable areas.

A house in Killiney will always have massive demand and the super-rich are just less super-rich.

I guess it's great for first time buyers except that they are the ones who are most like to lose their jobs or take pay reductions.

I'd imagine a slow death with a very slow recovery since the biggest thing people will take from the experience is fear including developers.

I'm doing a funded PhD. Offhand, I can think of three students who are getting funding and are non-nationals, out of about 30 I've met in the same department. I also attended an induction for all the research postgrads who started around the same time as myself. There were about a hundred people there as far as I remember. I'd say at maybe 10% of them were non-nationals. In this case, some of the students were part-time and not funded. I don't know the overall percentage of foreign postgrads being funded in Ireland, but I would be very surprised if it was over 20%.
I didn't know that some funding bodies were required to take a large proportion of international students. As a counterpoint, I am funded by Enterprise Ireland myself. To qualify for EI funding, a project needs to have commercial potential within Ireland. Some fairly successful Irish businesses have grown from projects like this.

pisslips

Aye, by E.U. I include Ireland and I'd imagine not that many non-irish E.U. citizens apply to irish Universities.
But technically it's E.U. funding.

It's pure hearsay but someone said to me that a minimum of about 30% had to be Irish for the particualr group to which he was applying.

So in essense, I'm agreeing with you and I'm adding that there's hardly any funding at all, if any, for non-E.U. students, such as Americans as was stated earlier.

blast05

blast, you clearly have strong views on the likely direction of house prices as do I

I don't. Its just getting a bit tedious reading some of the drama queen stuff being spouted by people on the side of the argument that are hoping they will be able to get a house for less than the price of a car in a few years ..... ok, slight exaggeration but you get my point.

As for all the postgrad stuff ..... i'm not just talking reearch PhD's or masters. I'm talking the vast numbers of higher diploma courses and masters courses etc. This was the way it panned out when i graduated from my primary degree in the mid 90's ... i.e.: everyone seemed to go on and do some form of postgrad cos there were no job opportunities. When they had finished those 1, 2 or 3 years later by say late 90''s there was no problem getting a job.

jackal

blast05 wrote: »

I don't. Its just getting a bit tedious reading some of the drama queen stuff being spouted by people on the side of the argument that are hoping they will be able to get a house for less than the price of a car in a few years ..... ok, slight exaggeration but you get my point.

Yeah, i mean like, how dare these plebs think that one day, they might get value? They should cop on. Ireland is different, our population is pre-ordained to a life of debt slavery and letting the ECB rate variations decide almost whether or not we can put food on our plates next month, because we are all up to our necks in barely serviceable debt. Every average 3 bed house is worth between 1/3 and 1/2 half a million, and the sooner the plebs realise it, and get back to buying, the better this country will be.

To the sellers who "wont sell for less than its worth"... nobody has a gun to your head. Nobody cares if you hang on while identical houses sell for 2/3 what you think your place is worth. Its your perogative, though the bank might burst your bubble when they say your LTV has risen, or the house insurers disagree with your valuation.

Do what you like, but consider this: What if europe does recover from this recession, but ireland does not, or recovers alot more slowly. What if ECB rates go up again? Do you think many sellers will sit around waiting it out if they are forking out 5 or 6% interest?

Duckjob

jackal wrote: »

To the sellers who "wont sell for less than its worth"... nobody has a gun to your head. Nobody cares if you hang on while identical houses sell for 2/3 what you think your place is worth. Its your perogative, though the bank might burst your bubble when they say your LTV has risen, or the house insurers disagree with your valuation.

+1

The market sets its own level.

In the boomtime, if a buyer said "I want a 3 bed semi in decent area of Dublin but I'm not paying more than 200K for it", the market would simply see them left behind. The same will happen with sellers now who think they can participate on their own terms.

You either participate at the market level or you don't.

Do what you like, but consider this: What if europe does recover from this recession, but ireland does not, or recovers alot more slowly. What if ECB rates go up again? Do you think many sellers will sit around waiting it out if they are forking out 5 or 6% interest?

I'm always bemused by recent VI spin that now is a good time to buy *because* interest rates are so low. Maybe valid if it were possible to lock in a low rate for the full mortgage term. Not possible here though. On a Variable/Tracker/short fixed rate its potentially one of the most dangerous times to buy.

Ireland is way deeper in the sh*t that the likes of Germany for example, so it's very likely they will manage a recovery well before us. We could well see a situation whereby Irish economy is still banjaxed, but interest rates are heading swiftly back up to where they were 18 mths ago and higher.

I would say to anyone considering buying now: Don't be duped by VI spin. Calculate affordability based on interest rates from 2 yrs ago + a couple of percent, not todays.

20goto10

ntlbell wrote: »

11% and rising at 1500 being made unemployed every day and growing.
We're seeing all sectors start to introduce pay freezes or pay cuts

some sectors are getting hit for up to 30% decreases.

we have a budget around the corner that looks like it's going to remove a lot more from your disposable income.

possible loss or reduction in child care benifits etc and social welfare

we have the highest personal debt in Europe

Did you mention something about good news?

The good news is the private sector is becoming more competitive. We have to cut wages because we can't devalue our currency. Wages cuts and higher income tax will result in cheaper prices, ultimately strengthening our economy.

Btw, I don't know what generation you are from but my parents struggled a lot more than we are and it got even harder the more you go back. We have it good, even today.

The_Conductor

20goto10 wrote: »

The good news is the private sector is becoming more competitive. We have to cut wages because we can't devalue our currency. Wages cuts and higher income tax will result in cheaper prices, ultimately strengthening our economy.

Btw, I don't know what generation you are from but my parents struggled a lot more than we are and it got even harder the more you go back. We have it good, even today.

Both private and public sector have become more competitive- there has been a defacto embargo on recruitment in the public sector for over 3 years, which has resulted in between a 7 and 9% reduction in headcounts (varies between different organisations and the civil service- the highest headcount reduction being in the civil service). Further- when they normalise the pension levy and other deductions into straight salary cuts- there will be a further reduction in the public sector paybill of around 7-8 percent.

Everyone is going to nobbled in the hatchet budget on Tuesday- no-one is going to be left untouched.

We do have it good, even now, whether we like to admit it or not. I remember my parents telling me they had to factor the price of a weekly newspaper into the family budget when they bought their first home- thats how tight things were. Can you imagine that happening now?

blast05

Yeah, i mean like, how dare these plebs think that one day, they might get value? They should cop on. Ireland is different, our population is pre-ordained to a life of debt slavery and letting the ECB rate variations decide almost whether or not we can put food on our plates next month, because we are all up to our necks in barely serviceable debt. Every average 3 bed house is worth between 1/3 and 1/2 half a million, and the sooner the plebs realise it, and get back to buying, the better this country will be.

Cop on, i'm not suggesting that and i agree 100% that what was going on was unsustainable and i don't think anyone on this board disagrees with that or agrees with your sarcastic comments above.

Comments like there are a backlog of 350,000 houses meaning 20 years of house supply, exaggerating unemployment rate increases 3 fold to support arguments, suggesting vast housing estates are going to be knocked cos there is no need for them ..... all this drama queen crap only confuses the argument. If the nett result of what is happening that house prices drop by 50-60% from their peak and it takes 15-20 years for the prices to 'recover' to 2006 levels then so be it.

In reality i suspect we are already there as the only people that are selling have accepted this and of course the actual selling prices are not published. For sure there will be people forced to sell by the banks but the will be the small minortity and i just can't see that leading to prices being only 10-20% of their peaks as so many on here are hoping and predicting.

Somewhere closer to the Finnish experience than the ongoing Japanese experience is what i would predict will be our reality, but sure who know, maybe global hyperinflation may eventually be triggered as a consequence of all the liquiduty being pumped into their economies by US, UK and Japan ..... and the price of houses will be one of our lesser worries :eek:
Japan: http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/property-house-price-statistics-for-ireland/26/Japan-Urban-Land-Index.html
Finland: http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/property-house-price-statistics-for-ireland/25/Finland-House-Price-Index-1970-to-2002.html

ntlbell

blast05 wrote: »

I don't. Its just getting a bit tedious reading some of the drama queen stuff being spouted by people on the side of the argument that are hoping they will be able to get a house for less than the price of a car in a few years ..... ok, slight exaggeration but you get my point.

I obviously don't know everyone's situation but I know a lot of us that on "the side of the argument" are home owners, including myself.

You know, I was nearly a millionaire, I'm still crying into my soup.

I also don't think it's about taken sides we're just discussing what's going on.

I'm not some VI who's going to spring into action and buy up half the country when I can buy a block of apartments for a tenner, I have nothing to gain one way or the other, in fact much the opposite.

ntlbell

20goto10 wrote: »

The good news is the private sector is becoming more competitive. We have to cut wages because we can't devalue our currency. Wages cuts and higher income tax will result in cheaper prices, ultimately strengthening our economy.

Btw, I don't know what generation you are from but my parents struggled a lot more than we are and it got even harder the more you go back. We have it good, even today.

Old enough to remember the funny hair cuts of the 80's

I'm not some delusional 19yr old out of college.

I know very well how "good" we have it.

I mean my own grandad had to walk 30 miles to school in his barefeet :eek:

and where I lived was nothing but fields.

ntlbell

smccarrick wrote: »

We do have it good, even now, whether we like to admit it or not. I remember my parents telling me they had to factor the price of a weekly newspaper into the family budget when they bought their first home- thats how tight things were. Can you imagine that happening now?

Yes I can.

I can't afford a newspaper :mad:

The_Conductor

blast05 wrote: »

Japan: http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/property-house-price-statistics-for-ireland/26/Japan-Urban-Land-Index.html
Finland: http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/property-house-price-statistics-for-ireland/25/Finland-House-Price-Index-1970-to-2002.html

Keep in mind- residential property in Japan is currently at levels last seen in November 1973 (aka 36 years ago) and continuing to fall- while Finland is itself in the middle of another property bubble burst- with a national fall in prices last year (2008) of 24%

It may very well be that hoping 2006 prices will return in a 10-15 year window, may very well be an optimistic hope.....

In 2001 our property prices were ~20-25% overvalued compared to other OECD countries. It may very well be that allowing for inflation (and our current deflation)- 2000-2001 prices may be a far better point to aim for.

krugerrand

ntlbell wrote: »

I obviously don't know everyone's situation but I know a lot of us that on "the side of the argument" are home owners, including myself.

You know, I was nearly a millionaire, I'm still crying into my soup.

I also don't think it's about taken sides we're just discussing what's going on.

I'm not some VI who's going to spring into action and buy up half the country when I can buy a block of apartments for a tenner, I have nothing to gain one way or the other, in fact much the opposite.

My view is that this forum contains more than a few people with vested interests who are attempting to engage in talking house prices down by coming up with overly pessimistic predictions.

AARRRGH

krugerrand wrote: »

My view is that this forum contains more than a few people with vested interests who are attempting to engage in talking house prices down by coming up with overly pessimistic predictions.

I actually think people are just being honest - we are a small, crappy country with insanely overpriced homes and an economy which is going through a correction.

I think it is a bit optimistic to think our economy will be anything other than screwed for many years, e.g. 10 - 15 years.

ntlbell

krugerrand wrote: »

My view is that this forum contains more than a few people with vested interests who are attempting to engage in talking house prices down by coming up with overly pessimistic predictions.

You're entitled to that view.

by VI you mean they would like to be able to buy a home to live in, in their own town at a reasonable price?

off with their heads i say

Freddie59

krugerrand wrote: »

My view is that this forum contains more than a few people with vested interests who are attempting to engage in talking house prices down by coming up with overly pessimistic predictions.

Key words: your view.;)

I agree with the above. People are being honest, and are observing market forces at work. What has the property moguls stumped this time around is one thing - the Internet.

Instant information on prices, etc. It's playing a huge part in all of this and I don't think that a lot of people in the Building/EA/Developer businesses actually realise this.

Also, FTBs are looking at what happened to their peers in the past few years, and are extremely averse to the same thing happening to them. A long way to go indeed.

johnnyskeleton

krugerrand wrote: »

My view is that this forum contains more than a few people with vested interests who are attempting to engage in talking house prices down by coming up with overly pessimistic predictions.

Not to be overly pedantic, but I don't like the term vested interest used in this context. A vested interest is one which is not just speculative or potential, but is legally recognised and asserted. E.g. if you acquire property, once title has lawfully transferred to you, your interest in that property becomes vested. People who want to buy property at a reasonable level have no vested interest in property prices, because if prices don't fall to reasonable levels then they simply wont buy. They will only buy if the price is right. People who own property on the other hand can be said to have vested interestes because they will be affected by price changes up or down.

In addition, do you really think that an internet forum is capable of talking up or down property? Articles by Morgan Kelly, George Lee, David McWilliams etc could possibly have an effect on popular sentiment, but you wouldn't call them vested interests.

Finally, is it really so wrong to want to be able to buy a property at an affordable price? More importantly, is it wrong to recognise that unless ordinary workers can live somewhere at a reasonably cheap level, then the country is unlikely to regain competitiveness (and therefore not recover)?

So do I personally want house prices to drop? Yes. Do I recognise that cheaper house prices is a good thing for the economy? Yes. Do I allow that to cloud my judgement in analysing the property market? No, I don't think so. The valuations I put on properties are based on my estimate of what a property should cost at 3-5 times the annual income of someone who aught realistically live in that area. I also base it on the general trend that property prices track inflation. If current property prices reflected these criteria, I would consider buying, even if popular opinion was not to buy. However, current prices are very far off. I mean, the cheapest one bed apartments in Dublin (Ashtown) were selling for €150k. That's 3 times a €50k salary. So someone earning €50k p.a. (e.g. junior doctor, civil engineer, IT specialist, etc) can only afford the cheapest, smallest apartment in a fairly rough area of Dublin. That can't be right. Can you justify that?

johnnyskeleton

sneakyST wrote: »

Houses are being dumped in the area - but I am prepared to wait many years as if nothing else - when the mortgage is clear - I will have a pension when i retire in 40 years time........

You will retire in 40 years time and you bought in 2001. So either you plan to work into your 70s or you bought when you were 17.

This is crazy though, the house will not be a pension for you, at best it will be somewhere for you to live in. In addition, factor in 40 years of repairs to the house, and you may find yourself, after working to 70 to finally "own" this house that you spent all those years just to live in a fairly average, possibly dilapidated house.

Zamboni

Freddie59 wrote: »

Also, FTBs are looking at what happened to their peers in the past few years, and are extremely averse to the same thing happening to them.

You just described me.
A lot of my friends are in negative equity and some have also lost jobs.
I am ready to buy and mortgage approved but quite simply I am in absolutely no rush and will play the long game if I have to.
Earlier in the thread that was called stingy. I just think it's common sense that I want to get the best bargain possible, the lowest mortgage that I need to cover it and therefore the earlier I own my house outright the better.

sneakyST

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

You will retire in 40 years time and you bought in 2001. So either you plan to work into your 70s or you bought when you were 17.

This is crazy though, the house will not be a pension for you, at best it will be somewhere for you to live in. In addition, factor in 40 years of repairs to the house, and you may find yourself, after working to 70 to finally "own" this house that you spent all those years just to live in a fairly average, possibly dilapidated house.

Crazy assumptions on my financial status there JS or I may have come across wrong somewhere. If you read my original post you will see I am leaving the country. Therefore I wont be here to live in the house. And you assume I will have a mortgage till Im 70 on it......I bought it at 22. And my house is very nice thanks very much....not dilapidated at all

I think some have missed my point though. I agree that market forces will determine the value of the house, and it not about being stubborn or smug either refusing to sell , but its about what makes financial sense to me. I would consider myself to be in a quite healthy position - my question was originally what people thought would happen to the market if alot of young people who bought in the peak never get into the black - therefore cant trade up or whatever - would we see a stagnant market after everything settles down. Some have answered this quite well in fact.

P.s yes I will work as long as I can as I dont see the point in sitting around waiting to die.