The Property market has reached the bottom!

The_Conductor

techdiver wrote: »

Yes.

It's called an Embassy. Although an Embassy may be a bad example.

But in essence a government investing money in either assets or commodities is no different than you or I doing it.

Think of the National Pension Reserve Fund.

Well- the NAMA is now established as a body under the auspices of the NTMA- so you don't actually have to think of the National Pensions Reserve Fund- its a defacto part of the fund........

francish

cls wrote: »

I don't understand how the Irish government can own land in a foreign country?? For example, if some of this land were to be right on the border with the North, then the border changes surely? That land would be owned by the Republic of Ireland.

The Fianna Fail republican policy is to purchase the North.

johndaman66

smccarrick wrote: »

Developers have built hundreds of thousands of units for the FTB market- tens of thousands of which remain vacant. This glut will take several years to unwind, and eventually many of them will have to be demolished.

Apologies for back tracking on the thread a wee bit but was just wondering about the above proposition. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me really. I fail to see how it would be of any benefit to the developer in any regard to knock vacant houses. In addition to the cost of demolishing these developments what you are left with after is land (or amass of concrete and tar as the case may be) and a massive load of rubble of course.

Surely the houses could be sold by the developer for more than what the vacant land is worth to him or will ever in his lifetime realize for him? Thats to say if the houses were priced at 450k at peak (or even after peak) and even if the developer sold them for 150k a pop (picking figures out of the sky here), surley this would make more sense than knocking them?

While I could envisage there being some scope for an argument that the land would be worth more if sold for commercial purposes (if it can be re-zoned), but only to a very limited extent in certain circumstances. There is surely a glut of commercial property sitting there idle presently also.

Am I missing something here or would this just simply be yet another idiotic Irish solution to an Irish problem? Has this being done before where there has being property crashes and over supply in other countries?

Senna

Its more about suitability and build quality. Say a development in Cavan of 20 detached, 40 semi's and 40 apartments.
The detached might not be sold soon, but likely to be sold at some stage. The developer might look at the market (say in a few years, assuming we have some kind of functioning market when this takes place) and realise that at the current rate of sales it will take 10 years to sell all of the semi's (no demand, price will already be peanuts), but if those 40 semi's were 20 detached, they could be sold in 3 years. It may make financial scene to convert of demolish these to make detached houses.
The developer might then look at the apartments and realise that they will never be sold, especially if they are poorly built or just too small (for a rural area). I would also speculate that planning laws will become much stricter, developments anywhere or everywhere are (hopefully) a thing of the past, the demolishing of a apartment block might be welcomed by planning officials and so the granting of planning on this land might be guaranteed, making this land worth more than the field beside it.
Apartments is were we are likely to see demolishing, apartments outside of citys and large town centres were a product of the property bubble and are not built to meet the needs of the Irish population.
It will not be on a large scale, but having driven by many ghost estates in the Midlands i do believe its possible. There are houses built and finished in Ireland that will NEVER be occupied.

I was just looking at the Roscommon County council planning portal and there are still applications being submitted for housing estates in remote locations.

The_Conductor

Deleted User wrote: »

I was just looking at the Roscommon County council planning portal and there are still applications being submitted for housing estates in remote locations.

Don't worry- even if they are granted permission- which is highly unlikely- the developer(s) will never be able to access the finances necessary to build the developments.......

I wish we had a viable political system- where we could make our displeasure with the current shower of incompetent fools felt. Unfortunately there isn't a viable alternate. Perhaps a flirtation with military rule might be an idea

bobbiw

leonardjos wrote: »

From the property section of today's Irish Times:



Full Article here

So it looks like this is as affordable as it gets and we should hurry up and buy before property becomes unaffordable again! :rolleyes:

that is so funny, property has another 50% to fall at least.

bangersandmash

leonardjos wrote: »

From the property section of today's Irish Times:

MANY HAVE hinted at it over the last couple of weeks, but I’m just going to say it: THE PROPERTY MARKET HAS REACHED THE BOTTOM!

Full Article here

Five months later, a retraction...

My certainty was short-lived. As it turned out we were far from the bottom, and my mistaken presumption that Ireland’s tiny “green shoots” of economic recovery might burst into leaf and perhaps even blossom, as they were doing elsewhere, was obviously overly optimistic, to put it mildly

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/0827/1224253329231.html

J-blk

Just goes to show how clueless these "experts" in the media really are... Expect them to report the actual bottom about 6 months (or more) after we hit it as well...

The_Conductor

J-blk wrote: »

Just goes to show how clueless these "experts" in the media really are... Expect them to report the actual bottom about 6 months (or more) after we hit it as well...

At least she had the balls to issue a retraction in all fairness.

oceanclub

smccarrick wrote: »

At least she had the balls to issue a retraction in all fairness.

I wonder if she would have bothered if it wasn't for the fact that 3 of the top 4 hits on her name on Google deride that particular quote.

P.

bangersandmash

smccarrick wrote: »

At least she had the balls to issue a retraction in all fairness.

True. But I wonder how many people bought in the intervening period on the back of this kind of pronouncement. I believe Gerry Ryan made a similar pronouncement around the same time, telling his listeners that houses were never going to be any cheaper.

J-blk

smccarrick wrote: »

At least she had the balls to issue a retraction in all fairness.

Fair enough. But still, it would be hard to argue 5 months later that she was even remotely right in the first place. Reading both articles as well, I just don't see the retraction as much of a retraction to be honest. It's more like "oh well, I wasn't right, moving on..." than anything - but then again, I am pretty grumpy towards the media in general .

bangersandmash

bangersandmash wrote: »

True. But I wonder how many people bought in the intervening period on the back of this kind of pronouncement. I believe Gerry Ryan made a similar pronouncement around the same time, telling his listeners that houses were never going to be any cheaper.

Probably far fewer than who would have bought if their mortgages were approved!

Duckjob

smccarrick wrote: »

At least she had the balls to issue a retraction in all fairness.

When it comes to the irish property market, I'm horribly cynical about the intentions of media types...

The cynic in me would say it's just an attempt to salvage whatever she imagines remains of her credibility, so that she can keep her job talking b****x about the property market for a bit longer.

oceanclub

Reading that article in detail, it's nowhere near a retraction and, in fact, the same old Isabel. To her, the only problem is to do with lack of credit. Nowhere does she acknowledge that property ever was or is overpriced. If banks were currently throwing money at people, unable to pay it back, for overpriced property, she'd be delighted.

And why wouldn't she be? One of her jobs is writing for property supplements funding by vested interests, while the other is interior designer - the more people who get up to their necks in debts to get on the "ladder", because "rent is dead money", the better.

Nothing to see here, move along, etc.

P.

jmayo

bangersandmash wrote: »

True. But I wonder how many people bought in the intervening period on the back of this kind of pronouncement. I believe Gerry Ryan made a similar pronouncement around the same time, telling his listeners that houses were never going to be any cheaper.

And would you rate gerry ryan's financial advice ?
Why was every gerry, brendan and isabel offering advice on property investment and home purchase.
Worst still why were people so gullible as to believe it :rolleyes:

mrgaa1

www.daft.ie/1468252 This place reached over €140k at auction on Wednesday.

oceanclub

If you needed any proof how intertwined papers like the Irish Times are with the property industry, one only need to read a puff piece like this from today, which appeared both online and in the paper:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/0827/1224253329315.html

TENNIS TOURNAMENT: THE IRISH TIMES /IAVI tennis tournament took place last night at Lansdowne Tennis Club with 11 teams in the hunt for The Irish Times Perpetual Trophy.

There were two teams each from Sherry FitzGerald and Savills with Hooke MacDonald, Knight Frank, Daphne Kaye, Independent Valuations, McGinley Farrelly O’Connor and The Irish Times entering a team each.

The hotly contested tennis-fest is held before agents gear up for the autumn season. Originally intended as a social outing, it has become a bit of a white-knuckle event, with agencies taking it very seriously and bringing their not inconsiderable sense of competitiveness to bear on the proceedings. Savills HOK won the tournament for three years preceding Sherry Fitz’s win last year while Sherry Fitz has won six titles, one clear of arch rivals Hooke MacDonald, who last won in 2004.

Down the years there has been an excellent atmosphere at the competition. Teams knocked out in earlier rounds head for a barbecue or the bar.

More of the wit and wisdom of Ken MacDonald here:

http://quotesfromthebubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/ken-macdonald-hooke-macdonald-estate.html

P.

Tech3

mrgaa1 wrote: »

www.daft.ie/1468252 This place reached over €140k at auction on Wednesday.

Which EA do you work for?

Freddie59

tech2 wrote: »

Which EA do you work for?

I've asked that in the past. Never been answered.

Here's an example of market forces at work. We were very luicky to purchase a house (closed last week) for 33% less than current prices sought. Nice estate - only 100 houses. Very rarely houses come up for sale. Three were for sale at €299k; €287k, and €195k (the one we bought). It was in excellent condition and we estimate that we bought at March 2000 prices. OK - we could have waited a bit longer, but were nervous of the cash from our sale on deposit, and conscious that we might not get a house like this again.

Result? The one on at €299k has now been dropped to €215k. The lesson was there from our sale. Reduce the price (realistically) and you will sell.

Now, regardless of the EAs posting here, this is unavoidable. It will happen. End of story. And not before time.

For any of you considering buying, these sites are invaluable:

www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com

www.thepropertypin.com

www.irishpropertywatch.com

www.irishhometruths.com.

Good hunting!

Duckjob

oceanclub wrote: »

If you needed any proof how intertwined papers like the Irish Times are with the property industry, one only need to read a puff piece like this from today, which appeared both online and in the paper:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/0827/1224253329315.html



More of the wit and wisdom of Ken MacDonald here:

http://quotesfromthebubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/ken-macdonald-hooke-macdonald-estate.html

P.

The lad on the right in the pic is the Hooke&McDonald EA who went on the Late Late a while back trying to talk up the property market and got his ass handed to him.

whizzbang

Duckjob wrote: »

The lad on the right in the pic is the Hooke&McDonald EA who went on the Late Late a while back trying to talk up the property market and got his ass handed to him.

I knew he looked familiar!

mrgaa1

tech2 wrote: »

Which EA do you work for?

I don't work for any EA. So its ok if someone talks about how much of a price reduction they got when they were buying buy its not ok to highlight what happened at an auction recently?

AARRRGH

mrgaa1 wrote: »

I don't work for any EA. So its ok if someone talks about how much of a price reduction they got when they were buying buy its not ok to highlight what happened at an auction recently?

I've been reading your posts for a while and you're constantly trying to talk up the market or pretend things aren't bad or shouldn't be bad.

A blind donkey can see property in Ireland is still overpriced, and that for the next 5 to 10 to 15 years prices are only going to fall.

Our economy is screwed, and the ridiculous property bubble is current deflating.

Kipperhell

AARRRGH wrote: »

A blind donkey can see property in Ireland is still overpriced, and that for the next 5 to 10 to 15 years prices are only going to fall.

So you mean 5-15 years? Are you considering the birth rate? It sounds no different from the people who said the market would keep going up. Everybody knows things will change they just don't think the present will.

What is most likely to happen is parts of the market will level out and rise and other parts will remain low. Areas of employment will be more important due to increasing fuel costs.

Nothing operates in isolation. People waiting the market out saving on purchase price will ignore the actual costs of doing it such as higher interest rates and the rental costs. Some will be lucky and unlucky selling at the height and buying at the peak. The mean will manage fine with the normal swings and roundabouts of the market.

AARRRGH

Kipperhell wrote: »

So you mean 5-15 years? Are you considering the birth rate?

Yes, and I'm also considering emigration.

Job losses are going to continue for a number of years (including major multinationals moving to a cheaper country), and it is unlikely people will be willing to forever sit on their hole claiming the dole.

I can see us returning to a culture of emigration.

The only positive thing I can see is people are being forced to take wage cuts, which will make us slightly more competitive, but employers (especially multinationals) are going to be forced to make hard decisions due to declining sales, so will look at reducing their wage bill. Moving their expensive Irish operation to Eastern Europe is a no brainer.

I just can't see where any sort of "recovery" will come from, especially considering how overpriced our houses still our.

gurramok

Kipperhell wrote: »

So you mean 5-15 years? Are you considering the birth rate?

What birth rate?

The kids today won't be able to buy until 25yrs time if they stick around. The kids born 25yrs ago are dwindling in number due to the plummeting birth rate from 1981 until about the late 90's.

So kindly explain how the birth rate affects the market of 5-15yrs time.

uncanny

Kipperhell wrote: »

So you mean 5-15 years? Are you considering the birth rate?

What's the average age of an FTB in Ireland?

29 - 32 I reckon.

The current tiger cubs will definitely have a big impact on the property market in about 30 years time.

Yawn.

Gurgle

gurramok wrote: »

The kids born 25yrs ago are dwindling in number due to the plummeting birth rate from 1981 until about the late 90's.

I don't suppose you link to any evidence of this?