BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

caoty

Nice volume pickup for breaking through the resistance level.

RR2026

Nice to see the thread is reactivated- now what is the verdict buy ? Hold ? Sell ?
- Personally based on many review i am going to hold with little tinge toward more buy ??

caoty

RR2026 wrote: »

Nice to see the thread is reactivated- now what is the verdict buy ? Hold ? Sell ?
- Personally based on many review i am going to hold with little tinge toward more buy ??

I hold for the moment and look for my previously mentioned level to sell a cut.

ranger4

Start of 3rd Leg, wonder will it have enough momentum to re-test Q1 2012 15c high before retrace.

Frere Jacques

And nicely enough the ADRs in the states closed higher than they were when the Irish market closed so hopefully we'll break 13c in the morning. Should see a bit of profit taking but higher highs always are nice.

caoty

The level of ADR indicates that BOI has a lot to gain.

Frere Jacques wrote: »

And nicely enough the ADRs in the states closed higher than they were when the Irish market closed so hopefully we'll break 13c in the morning. Should see a bit of profit taking but higher highs always are nice.

Seamus1964

RR2026 wrote: »

Nice to see the thread is reactivated- now what is the verdict buy ? Hold ? Sell ?
- Personally based on many review i am going to hold with little tinge toward more buy ??

Hold.

Roger_007

Bought 10000 of the things when they were 9.5 cents last summer. I think I will sell while I can still make a profit. They owe me big-time from the big crash.

maddragon

Bought at 13 cent last year as a long term punt. Very tempted to sell now as they gave me sleepless nights when they went to 8 cent. Still think they will by over 20 cent this year but may drop back a bit soon from profit taking. Anyone else have a view on this?

Frere Jacques

I'm going to hold for a bit but going to have a look come Feb. If they are up towards 15c then might sell off a few. The rest I hope to leave long term. If they have a respite from Basil 3 then you would think the DCF models will all have to be re-tweaked, not saying they will suddenly burst back into massive profits but they should get a bit of coverage and more interest in the stock can't be a bad thing at this level. There are a lot of folk who don't know a whole pile about shares outstanding and cost of capital and will just think of "Well it used to be at 15€ so surely it's a good bet now." There could be a pump and dump chance to get some shares out at a handy profit for those who bought sub 10.

ranger4

SP looks to be consolidating before ticking back up to re-test Q1 2012 15c high.

caoty

Volume is good for further gain.

ranger4

caoty wrote: »

Volume is good for further gain.

I agree, would be happy to see SP hit 0.1470-0.15c before end of earnings and inevitable correction.

mix_up

caoty wrote: »

Volume is good for further gain.

forgive my ignorance but could volume also suggest a quee of sellers lining up ?

poodles

A little lazy perhaps but can anyone tell me the current amount of shares in issue / market cap?

neil.p.b

poodles wrote: »

A little lazy perhaps but can anyone tell me the current amount of shares in issue / market cap?

30B/€4B

caoty

You could say that, but the price action must be taken into account.

mix_up wrote: »

forgive my ignorance but could volume also suggest a quee of sellers lining up ?

displaced dub

threw 5k into my davys account today, im actually thinking of a long term investment in BOI, i don't see it so much of a gamble anymore.

daithijjj

displaced dub wrote: »

threw 5k into my davys account today, im actually thinking of a long term investment in BOI, i don't see it so much of a gamble anymore.

Can i ask what your view is long term?, just bare bones analysis is fine. I bought into these shares a couple of years ago when the price was very volatile (i took a punt, complete gamble). Bought at .39 and .21, got out at 1.17 about 3 months after. Not dipped a toe in the water since but thinking of going medium to long myself with a modest amount.

If anyone else has anything to add would be good to get more feedback.

mad_man

displaced dub wrote: »

threw 5k into my davys account today, im actually thinking of a long term investment in BOI, i don't see it so much of a gamble anymore.

id wait till it consolidates before buying , its had a 15% rise in the past week alone and a 30% rise since late november

around 12.5 cent should be a good support level , then hold till the end of the year , who knows , might make it to 20 cent by year end

Seamus1964

O.T: AIB 0.06 / BOI 0.138
Good things start happening :-)

lucky john

a few things are in there favour. the risk punters are willing to take inorder to make a return on their cash is growing. as the interest rate war for savings ends and rates drop this will only grow.

People are beliving the goverment spin that all is good and we are on the way back to the top again. bank shares would be a hedge on that and there is only really BoI left here for the moment.

Its not in the present owners/investors interest to dilute there holding any further so they will be incouraging managment to manage their way quitely out of any further right downs. Richie Boucher's attitude to TD's and how little he was willing to give on any point is an example of this I think. He acted like a man who seemed fairly sure he would'nt need to go cap in hand to them again. There is always the risk of a rights issue I suppose but as long as nationalization is off the table there is always hope of a long term return.

I know the people on here with far more knowledge than me will rightly point out the underlying figures and the private/landlord mortgage default risk. But its surprising how quickly these concerns are ignored when a bit of monentum builds up behind any stock(either going up or down). "Irrational exuberance" and all that.

ranger4

Want to see SP break above 14c resistance ( had 3 pops at it) and break through Q1 2012 15c high however i believe we will see SP back at 12-13c range due to profit taking which could see 12-13c range acting as support replacing 7-11c lows.

ranger4

SP just broke through stubborn 14c resistance, Hopefully sp can do the same with Q1 2012 15c high.

PopTarts

Can anyone tell me the easiest / quickest way to go and buy some shares?

Seamus1964

PopTarts wrote: »

Can anyone tell me the easiest / quickest way to go and buy some shares?

Go to AIB and buy over the counter. You need AIB a/c.
100 euro per transaction + 20 euro Goodbody fee ( if Im right )
Not the cheapest but very easy. Good luck!

Frere Jacques

PopTarts wrote: »

Can anyone tell me the easiest / quickest way to go and buy some shares?

That's what I like to see. Maybe Poptarts has been following this for a while but I reckon this stock is in for a big pop if there is a big retail awareness. There is nothing worse that watching your neighbour get rich.

ranger4

Frere Jacques wrote: »

That's what I like to see. Maybe Poptarts has been following this for a while but I reckon this stock is in for a big pop if there is a big retail awareness. There is nothing worse that watching your neighbour get rich.

I agree interest is growing with this share, Investors-punters want more return for their cash than the paltry interest from a savings a/c, Nationalisation fear issue done and dusted.

caoty

Significant gain should be on the way very soon!

sozbox

caoty wrote: »

Significant gain should be on the way very soon!

What leads you to that conclusion?

caoty

My hope:-)

venividi

venividi wrote: »

The market didn't agree today unfortunately. BKiR is worth a long term punt for the brave/foolish. Max 5% of portfolio & a willingness 2 loose all without sleepless nights

http://m.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2013/0121/1224329102849.html?via=bnews

retalivity

im not in ireland, but am looking to buy boi shares online and sit on them for a few years.
sharewatch however seem to have an inactivity fee of 25 a month if you're not trading...are there any other online options with minimal fees?

Blackjack

retalivity wrote: »

im not in ireland, but am looking to buy boi shares online and sit on them for a few years.
sharewatch however seem to have an inactivity fee of 25 a month if you're not trading...are there any other online options with minimal fees?

http://www.selftrade.co.uk/

Seamus1964

retalivity wrote: »

im not in ireland, but am looking to buy boi shares online and sit on them for a few years.
sharewatch however seem to have an inactivity fee of 25 a month if you're not trading...are there any other online options with minimal fees?

Can'nt you just buy shares there over the bank counter (on off fee ) and "sit on them" as long as you wish - no inactivity fees what so ever?
Kind of ould school way

retalivity

Seamus1964 wrote: »

Can'nt you just buy shares there over the bank counter (on off fee ) and "sit on them" as long as you wish - no inactivity fees what so ever?
Kind of ould school way

Im not in Ireland, or Europe for that matter, and wont be until June at the earliest

collie0708

Thinking of putting €5k of my savings into boi shares,anyone any views as to how risky an investment this is and what the chances are of making a decent return in 5 to 10 years????

Scortho

collie0708 wrote: »

Thinking of putting €5k of my savings into boi shares,anyone any views as to how risky an investment this is and what the chances are of making a decent return in 5 to 10 years????

I've made close to 100% return through buying and selling them at strategic times over the last year.
If you've 5000 to burn then go ahead. It's kind of like putting 5000 on the 100/1 horse in the grand national.
Positives
Of all the irish banks they're the best placed to recover due to the lowest state ownership. They will also be allowed to pay a dividend from 2015 so if they return to profits by then you could see an increase in price. They are one of the big 2 in the country so have a large customer base for potential new loans in the future.

However there are negatives mainly being that they could easily fall to 0...think Waterford crystal or hmv, there will most likely be stock dilution and possible losses on mortgages and many more.

My reason for investing in them was because I wanted to have some fun with money that was sitting in my account and the next 10 years was longer than the grand national. Also if in 10 years time they are worthless and I'm broke, it won't be the bank of Ireland shares that caused me to be broke.

JOB93

Scortho, stock dilution was a big worry but I think it is much less of a worry now because they seem to have gained the bond markets' trust, issuing plenty of oversubscribed debt before Christmas. The biggest threat of stock dilution will come when BOI get the chance to buy back government shares for €1 per share in 2014, after which it will cost €1.25 per share. Given the opportunity I think they would buy back the shares with debt rather than equity. Philip O Sullivan explains it better :P http://pdosullivan.wordpress.com/2012/06/09/bank-of-ireland-bkir-i-irelands-good-bank/

Further capital raisings cannot be ruled out, with the Bank holding a call option over the government’s 10.25% 1.837bn 2009 preference stock that allow it to buy it back for €1/share up to 2014 and €1.25/share thereafter. Given the chunky coupon on these, I suspect the Bank will look to buy them back at the earliest possible opportunity, which may require some new equity depending on the strength of the recovery in profits from here and the state of the debt markets.

Given that he wrote this in July of last year, before the markets showed confidence in BOI (And other Irish companies) I think the threat of stock dilution is much smaller than it was even 6 months ago. They are still risky shares but I would definitely expect to see the shares appreciate quite a bit in maybe 3-5 years time? I'm not expecting any more dilution so I might look to buy before 2014 when the government preference shares will be bought back.

roro2

JOB93 wrote: »

Scortho, stock dilution was a big worry but I think it is much less of a worry now because they seem to have gained the bond markets' trust, issuing plenty of oversubscribed debt before Christmas. The biggest threat of stock dilution will come when BOI get the chance to buy back government shares for €1 per share in 2014, after which it will cost €1.25 per share. Given the opportunity I think they would buy back the shares with debt rather than equity. Philip O Sullivan explains it better :P http://pdosullivan.wordpress.com/2012/06/09/bank-of-ireland-bkir-i-irelands-good-bank/



Given that he wrote this in July of last year, before the markets showed confidence in BOI (And other Irish companies) I think the threat of stock dilution is much smaller than it was even 6 months ago. They are still risky shares but I would definitely expect to see the shares appreciate quite a bit in maybe 3-5 years time? I'm not expecting any more dilution so I might look to buy before 2014 when the government preference shares will be bought back.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out an equity raise. Repaying €1.8bn of preference shares in 12 months time is not going to be easy without raising replacement capital. At the moment these shares count towards core tier 1 capital so, even if €1.8bn could be raised through the debt markets, funding the repayment this way would be a big hit to capital. Particularly seeing as BOI (and the other banks) will seemingly do anything to avoid having to write-down its capital and loan provisions are continuing to mount. As for the article, I don't think profitability will have improved much since then and he does point out that avoiding additional equity would be dependent on profit recovery.

caoty

roro2 wrote: »

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out an equity raise. Repaying €1.8bn of preference shares in 12 months time is not going to be easy without raising replacement capital. At the moment these shares count towards core tier 1 capital so, even if €1.8bn could be raised through the debt markets, funding the repayment this way would be a big hit to capital. Particularly seeing as BOI (and the other banks) will seemingly do anything to avoid having to write-down its capital and loan provisions are continuing to mount. As for the article, I don't think profitability will have improved much since then and he does point out that avoiding additional equity would be dependent on profit recovery.

Debt financing, say at 6%, could also mean an increase of profit (or a reduction in loss) to the tune of 90 million per year.

hoff1

Will the government try to sell off shares they own in the banks any time soon ? if so what will this do to the share price?

BrokenArrows

hoff1 wrote: »

Will the government try to sell off shares they own in the banks any time soon ? if so what will this do to the share price?

I think if they put their shares on the market the sp will plummet. But its unlikely they will.

JOB93

hoff1 wrote: »

Will the government try to sell off shares they own in the banks any time soon ? if so what will this do to the share price?

If you see my post above, the bank will have buyback option on the governments shares in BOI, so essentially they will be bought out by the other shareholders, a huge flood of shares onto the market would be bad for both shareholders and the govt so I can't see them going down that route.

Anglo/IRBC/Irish Nationwide, as we know is being wound up so there will never be shares sold by the government in them.

I don't know what they intend to do with AIB. I think they will try to sell it privately in a few years (maybe 10? 15?) because trying to float it on the stock exchange any time soon would be pointless, the shares are worth less than a cent and the government would see way too low a return, it would be a PR disaster, not too mention we want as much as possible from the sale. Wait a few years until the bank becomes profitable then gradually sell it to private investors. By selling it privately, negotiations will be private and they're going to get a better price for it. It would then be up to the new shareholders/board members if they want to float it again and they would have an IPO

studdlymurphy

Bank of Ireland Impact of IBRC deal on Bank of Ireland
Following the deal on IBRC yesterday we have had to consider the effect this may have on the repo agreement that was agreed with Bank of Ireland last year. Previously the government agreed a deferral of the €3.06bn promissory note, with the payment settled by delivery to IBRC of a long term government bond. BOI and IBRC then announced that they reached a conditional agreement to conduct a repo whereby BOI purchased the bond from IBRC for a purchase price of €3.06bn in cash with an obligation to repurchase from BOI in 364 days. The bond was ECB eligible and BOI generated a 135bps margin over the ECB funding, which was expected to net it about €40m per annum.
Following the liquidation of IBRC there was some concern surrounding the aforementioned bond. We now know that this position will be unwound and transferred directly to the Central Bank of Ireland. We do not expect any negative impact to forecasts.
Home…
Recommendation: Sell Closing Price: €0.13

Source

ranger4

studdlymurphy wrote: »

Bank of Ireland Impact of IBRC deal on Bank of Ireland
Following the deal on IBRC yesterday we have had to consider the effect this may have on the repo agreement that was agreed with Bank of Ireland last year. Previously the government agreed a deferral of the €3.06bn promissory note, with the payment settled by delivery to IBRC of a long term government bond. BOI and IBRC then announced that they reached a conditional agreement to conduct a repo whereby BOI purchased the bond from IBRC for a purchase price of €3.06bn in cash with an obligation to repurchase from BOI in 364 days. The bond was ECB eligible and BOI generated a 135bps margin over the ECB funding, which was expected to net it about €40m per annum.
Following the liquidation of IBRC there was some concern surrounding the aforementioned bond. We now know that this position will be unwound and transferred directly to the Central Bank of Ireland. We do not expect any negative impact to forecasts.
Home…
Recommendation: Sell Closing Price: €0.13

Source

Will come as a relief to Investors that bank woint get shafted for repo deal, SP recovering well this morn and i expect ratings upgrade to be announced soon which will have further possitive impact for govs longerm lending along with possitive investor sentiment for Bkir.

retalivity

possibly stupid question but ive setup a brokerage account through my canadian bank, and am lokoing to buy shares on the ftse. Now I can see that the BOI share price is currently at ~0.135, but in my brokerage the bid price is GBP135.50. Is this just due to the fact they are selling them in blocks of 1000? I cant find any info.

Other share quotes im looking at seem to match the penny prices i see on yahoo finance

BrokenArrows

retalivity wrote: »

possibly stupid question but ive setup a brokerage account through my canadian bank, and am lokoing to buy shares on the ftse. Now I can see that the BOI share price is currently at ~0.135, but in my brokerage the bid price is GBP135.50. Is this just due to the fact they are selling them in blocks of 1000? I cant find any info.

Other share quotes im looking at seem to match the penny prices i see on yahoo finance

Thats strange but it should clearly say in your bid section the quantity you are attempting to purchase.

retalivity

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Thats strange but it should clearly say in your bid section the quantity you are attempting to purchase.

It specifies quantity as '1'. If i specify 10, the cost goes up to 1355.00

Seamus1964

retalivity wrote: »

It specifies quantity as '1'. If i specify 10, the cost goes up to 1355.00

Sounds like a good deal (strong sell! )