BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

green_bow

roro2 wrote: »

It is a simple sum, and it's been explained to you several times.

share intervention of some kind will occur going forward so even the SP is two euro , the market cap wont be close to 60 billion

roro2

green_bow wrote: »

share intervention of some kind will occur going forward so even the SP is two euro , the market cap wont be close to 60 billion

If you're on about a share consolidation, etc, it's completely pointless just coming on and saying that BOI will never be worth 60 billion, and going on about penny stocks, etc.

littlemac1980

Value Hunter wrote: »

Remember the banks had massive profits during the boom because of the rampant property industry. That is gone. It won't becoming back. They won't be making anywhere near their past profits for many years to come. Wheres all this profit going to come from to justify a €60 Billion valuation??

Even in the boom the highest they reached was a market cap of €18 Billion, what makes you think the public are going to buy enough during a recession to put their value up to €60 Billion? Especially when they all have recent experience of a banking collapse??

They won't ever achieve a monopoly either, if theirs money to be made believe me competitors will enter the market

Best of luck if you'r investing, but honestly if your expecting to make profit from the public suddenly going bank share crazy and buying up so much shares so that their worth more than Goldman Sachs, I seriously think you need to rethink your strategy



Goldman Sachs made over €6 Billion profit last year

I think you've missed the point I'm making and simply repeated your earlier point, which is that you don't believe BOI will ever be worth €60billion, that's fair enough. I'm not suggesting it will or it won't - I simply don't know what it will be worth in 5 - 10 years.

What I am suggesting is that when the Recession ends and there is prolonged (2 years +) sustainable growth in the Economy both here and in the EU generally, then based on how BOI is currently performing, assuming it can return to profitability by next year which now seems likely, then the bank will be better positioned to expand its business beyond even that of the boom years.

So in fairness I don't think your question regarding the public spending in a recession is relevant at all, or develops your argument in any way, given its clear I am considering the situation of the Bank in a country both emerging from a recession and in the period beyond that recession.

The simple fact is that with the return of economic growth there will be large scale investment in commercial development - thats inevitable. Will it ever get to the levels experienced during the Celtic Tiger again? Who know's - possibly not, I'm not going to speculate, nor do I feel I need to.

I believe that the lack of competition in the Market combined with the resurgence of BOI's reputation both here and abroad will make it the primary and largely only beneficiary of any upsurge in the Market in the short to medium term.

Of course its true that the free market will enable competitors to ultimately establish in Ireland, however firstly many of the likely candidates still have enough problems of their own to deal, both in terms of their own financial situation and with regards to their positions within their own countries to risk establishing in a Market that burnt so many so badly in the past.

BOI is already here, the branches remain open in all parts of the country and they have closed far less of those than AIB.

The point I'm making is that attempting to speculate as to how BOI will perform in a post recession market by effectively stating "It can never do as well as it did in the Boom" fails to have regard to all the relevant factors.

Perhaps begin now by asking how BOI would have performed in the Boom in the absence of AIB and ANGLO, and whether the Market Cap of €18 billion which you effectively referred to as an unattainable valuation for ever more really represents such.

littlemac1980

On a completely side note but entirely relevant nonetheless :

Isn't it great to be arguing about what we think this Bank might be worth in the future as opposed to wondering if it will go bust.

gordongekko

littlemac1980 wrote: »

On a completely side note but entirely relevant nonetheless :

Isn't it great to be arguing about what we think this Bank might be worth in the future as opposed to wondering if it will go bust.

it may well go bust yet. We are 7 years into a banking crisis and still the major issues within the residential book remain unresolved.

Sonnenblumen

gordongekko wrote: »

it may well go bust yet. We are 7 years into a banking crisis and still the major issues within the residential book remain unresolved.

This reminds me of the usual whingeing that is a regular feature on a populist daytime radio show. Yes, in theory anything including failure is possible, in reality most unlikely. I don't even think it likely even if many of the distressed mortgages failed.

I would suggest you give the negative vibe a break and worry instead about the melting Polar ice.

BTW, most of the signs despite being weak indicators all indicate that the country is emerging (which practically every commentator agrees is certainly to happen at some point) from the various crises not just the banking one.

gordongekko

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

BTW, most of the signs despite being weak indicators all indicate that the country is emerging (which practically every commentator agrees is certainly to happen at some point) from the various crises not just the banking one.

most commentators agreed that we would have a soft landing in 2006 as well. How has that worked out for people.

How about high unemployment, no growth , austerity, mortgage arrears continuing to climb , the buy to let issue , the 90000 nama properties still to hit the market, the 1.5 billion to be repaid to the government buy boi. How about the 1000 people who emigrate every week. How about the lack of credit available to businesses. There are EU stress test next year to be passed. Some banks are finally starting to do deals on debts this is going to further hit there reserves.

I see far mose reasons to be negitive on Irish banks than positive.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Seamus1964

Back to 21c again
So.. is it good time to sell now or what?

Sonnenblumen

gordongekko wrote: »

most commentators agreed that we would have a soft landing in 2006 as well. How has that worked out for people.

How about high unemployment, no growth , austerity, mortgage arrears continuing to climb , the buy to let issue , the 90000 nama properties still to hit the market, the 1.5 billion to be repaid to the government buy boi. How about the 1000 people who emigrate every week. How about the lack of credit available to businesses. There are EU stress test next year to be passed. Some banks are finally starting to do deals on debts this is going to further hit there reserves.

I see far mose reasons to be negitive on Irish banks than positive.

Don't believe all the hype. Mortgage arrears being a well hammered example. Unemployment is high but yet there are jobs waiting to be filled. 1,000 emigrating/week are mostly Gap year emigrants or 2 yr fun trippers to Oz. Not all businesses require credit and who would want to give credit to any vulnerable business. Too many cos relied in the past on borrowings.

Some will wallow and pedal negative propaganda about another pending doomsday, most fortunately are getting on with the business of getting on.

Sonnenblumen

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

So how do you feel after wasting your time, time which you will never recover? Jaysus:o

Scortho

Seamus1964 wrote: »

Back to 21c again
So.. is it good time to sell now or what?

It's heading towards September, never a good month.
Personally I felt it was time to sell with a view to buying again if the price falls to a level in the mid teens.

However it's up to you. If they go up to 30 cent, I ain't taking the blame if you've sold. Likewise if they go down to 10 and you held I ain't taking the blame.

It's all your own decision.
With mortgage arrears growing, with unemployment near stagnant and with stress tests coming up next year, to me they look overvalued at 21cent.
They were my reasons for getting out.

euroboom13

Hold on to these shares long term!!

We are seven years on from our "banking crisis"
Seven years worth of college grads wiating for a market turn!
54% price reduction.
Buyers are ready .

Once banks start lending in at the bottom, we will be back to a rising market!

Rising market will narrow all bad loan book problems,creating an opportunity,for any recovering bank!

Every country has pillar banks,which are very attractive for pension funds,once confidence returns,investments will come.

You will do well to find a better opportunity to equire a blue chip investment for pennies.....but IF boi can survive ,that is what you will have achieved.

go long.

Good Luck.
"you get paid for taking risk that other people think is risky,you dont particularly get paid for taking actual risks" Wilbur Ross

Seamus1964

I do like your realistic advise,Scortho
But I do like your advise, Euroboom too - very optimistic

Well there is a still bit a room for BOI share price go up - both realistic and optimistic ways
If top price should'nt exeed 60c, I can see freefloat price around 45c mark, off course if everything goes well..

Bought 10c, sold 16c but s**t did'nt happen as most of us predicted so bought back 18c , still happy - still happy. .

It's predictions ahead as we'll find out what's on the radar for the coming year, I hoping to see 30c mark by end of this year

euroboom13

23.36cent.... what a run .....state exit in talks behind close doors ,i suspect..

lucky john

euroboom13 wrote: »

23.36cent.... what a run .....state exit in talks behind close doors ,i suspect..

If it keeps up this momentum they may considered a rights issue soon enough.

green_bow

Seamus1964 wrote: »

I do like your realistic advise,Scortho
But I do like your advise, Euroboom too - very optimistic

Well there is a still bit a room for BOI share price go up - both realistic and optimistic ways
If top price should'nt exeed 60c, I can see freefloat price around 45c mark, off course if everything goes well..

Bought 10c, sold 16c but s**t did'nt happen as most of us predicted so bought back 18c , still happy - still happy. .

It's predictions ahead as we'll find out what's on the radar for the coming year, I hoping to see 30c mark by end of this year

value hunter and gekko ignore the role sentiment plays in the market , sentiment for Ireland and bank of Ireland is improving internationally , that this might be unfounded is irrelevant , at least in the short term

ranger4

lucky john wrote: »

If it keeps up this momentum they may considered a rights issue soon enough.

WHY? There could be an agreement to extend Step up clause between gov and bank until bank on more solid footing, Such a deal would be advantageous for both bank and gov.

gordongekko

ranger4 wrote: »

WHY? There could be an agreement to extend Step up clause between gov and bank until bank on more solid footing, Such a deal would be advantageous for both bank and gov.

the interest rate increases if this is not repaid.

roro2

gordongekko wrote: »

the interest rate increases if this is not repaid.

Interest rate won't increase - just the redemption value.

A rights issue is on the cards, for at least a portion of the preference shares. There could be an argument to postpone the step-up date but I don't see it happening once the capital could be raised. I can't see the govt risking it being construed as letting the bank off the hook at the expense of the state.

gordongekko

roro2 wrote: »

Interest rate won't increase - just the redemption value.

A rights issue is on the cards, for at least a portion of the preference shares. There could be an argument to postpone the step-up date but I don't see it happening once the capital could be raised. I can't see the govt risking it being construed as letting the bank off the hook at the expense of the state.

if they don't pay it back they can't issue dividends

lucky john

ranger4 wrote: »

WHY? There could be an agreement to extend Step up clause between gov and bank until bank on more solid footing, Such a deal would be advantageous for both bank and gov.

I suppose they could try and raise the money they need without going to the share holders but its unlikely. I'll be amazed if either the bank or the government want to extend this beyond March. The extra cost to the bank is one incentive but the main reasons are political in my view. The way I see it Enda ,Michael Richie and Angela will be desperate for the positive PR involved in putting a bank back in private hands. The1.5 billion cheque + the holy grail of "bank normalization" + the Bloomberg interview and all before the local elections will be impossible for them to resist.

littlemac1980

Here's Wilbur Ross's views - for what their worth

See about 1:20.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdMWLKb7lyA&feature=youtu.be

dharn

Interesting

gordongekko

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Here's Wilbur Ross's views - for what their worth

See about 1:20.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdMWLKb7lyA&feature=youtu.be

in work can't view it. Anyone care to give me a summary.

Scortho

gordongekko wrote: »

in work can't view it. Anyone care to give me a summary.

In relation to boi, nothing Richie Boucher hasn't told you already.

littlemac1980

Nice to see the positive momentum is continuing at a steady pace, and continuing to regularly break through annual highs.

ranger4

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Nice to see the positive momentum is continuing at a steady pace, and continuing to regularly break through annual highs.

SP down almost 15% from recent 0.24c high, declines mainly due to uncertainties with possible rights issue & dilution for exsisting shareholders to pay for govs pref shares before march deadline.

Sonnenblumen

ranger4 wrote: »

SP down almost 15% from recent 0.24c high, declines mainly due to uncertainties with possible rights issue & dilution for exsisting shareholders to pay for govs pref shares before march deadline.

My understanding is that the bank is planning another rights issue, and as is normal practice existing shareholders can decide yes/no to participate.

Those not wishing to participate will effectively suffer dilution, but I believe the bank will be in a stronger place post any new round of funding (to discharge Gov's 15% Pref shares) and will be exclusively a privately owned bank. This will hopefully pave the way eventually for more upside on SP?

ranger4

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

My understanding is that the bank is planning another rights issue, and as is normal practice existing shareholders can decide yes/no to participate.

Those not wishing to participate will effectively suffer dilution, but I believe the bank will be in a stronger place post any new round of funding (to discharge Gov's 15% Pref shares) and will be exclusively a privately owned bank. This will hopefully pave the way eventually for more upside on SP?

Hopefully large percentage of funds needed to redeem prefs can be found through debt issuance along with reduced rights issue, I for one not happy to be asked in short space of few years for 3rd time to stump up again.

gordongekko

ranger4 wrote: »

Hopefully large percentage of funds needed to redeem prefs can be found through debt issuance along with reduced rights issue, I for one not happy to be asked in short space of few years for 3rd time to stump up again.

did they not have a rights issue a few years ago at .50cent?

Sonnenblumen

ranger4 wrote: »

Hopefully large percentage of funds needed to redeem prefs can be found through debt issuance along with reduced rights issue, I for one not happy to be asked in short space of few years for 3rd time to stump up again.

The last one was around 12cent, so plenty of upside since! I see no reason for the next round not to be any different. Still if it accelerates SP growth and gets the Gov Monkey off the bank's back, it's hardly a bad thing?

At least it'll be great to see the whacky lefties forced to turn their focus elsewhere?

Comordha

Price continues to rise. Surely based on the bank's current market capitalisation & the size of the overall Irish market & the maximum profit potential of such a limited market there has to be a near term limit to how far this can actually go? Latest opinions please. Already overvalued?

Value Hunter

This is why they are rising,

useurname wrote: »

Well they are still undervalued, afterall they traded somewhere in the region of 12 euro at one stage, and money always returns to at least its previous so in time an investment now of 5k would (41666 shares) sold at €12 a share returns €500,000

at the time I wanted them at .12 and would have achieved €1mil return on a 5k investment in 10 years!!

Min I was allowed to invest was 30K at time if enquiry

Its scary how little people understand, but still spend thousands 'investing'

Cute Hoor

Pretty obvious mistake above.
For me, BOI defies logic, nobody (that I know of) has any concept of the extent of their eventual mortgage problem (among other issues), the amount of shares in issue would probably cover Ireland, and yet the sp continues to rise and rise, more than doubled (117%) in a year? Incredible. And yesterday as Noonan announced a bank levy that will relieve BOI of probably another €200m over the next 3 years, what happens, the sp rises by 4%.

Edit: Wilbur Ross is a happy man!

euroboom13

They have problems ,but ones that a rising market will improve and evenually fix.Even none performing loans will have a cash return of at least 30% on liqiudation,and less than 15% none performing?

Investing in banks is about future earnings, not about book value and current returns.

This isn`t worth 0 cent if liquidated today,but it wont be liqiudated and will be here for future post imf expanding economy!

stackerman

euroboom13 wrote: »

They have problems ,but ones that a rising market will improve and evenually fix.Even none performing loans will have a cash return of at least 30% on liqiudation,and less than 15% none performing?

Investing in banks is about future earnings, not about book value and current returns.

This isn`t worth 0 cent if liquidated today,but it wont be liqiudated and will be here for future post imf expanding economy!

Agree, and what do you think will happen to the loan book when interest rates rise ? But sure all logic has long since gone out the window, just look at the S&P ffs.

FYI word is that the big accounting firms are recommending to their clients to withdraw cash from BOI (precautionary), due to recent court actions. Pls don't ask for proof, I don't have it

euroboom13

stackerman wrote: »

Agree, and what do you think will happen to the loan book when interest rates rise ? But sure all logic has long since gone out the window, just look at the S&P ffs.

FYI word is that the big accounting firms are recommending to their clients to withdraw cash from BOI (precautionary), due to recent court actions. Pls don't ask for proof, I don't have it

Central banks appear to aqree on keeping interest rates low for next 3yrs,and i would think they will be chasing inflation when they do increase.That would mean property values(and rent) increasing before repayments increase.That may cause pain to borrowers but banks will be repossesing in a rising market which wouldnt effect earnings!I also think that those who are making repayments at the moment ,will still be able too,in an improving/expanding economy.

As for advise from big accountancy firms ,they do mislead alot.;)

euroboom13

all this qe that should be effecting (positively)gold/silver/and currencies,where is it going!

djia/s&p/ftse/iseq

They are the only rising boat i can see.20% this yr

Shurwhynot

What affect will this rights issue have on share price?

Have been speculating on whether to purchase BOI shares now for a couple of months, and have only seen them rise.

Would I be better off waiting until after the rights issue? I realise that there is no guarantee that these shares will continue to rise, but realistically they aren't going to plummet either.

gordongekko

Shurwhynot wrote: »

but realistically they aren't going to plummet either.

why won't they drop?. I'm a holder of two bank shares but neither of them are Irish banks and im fond of bank shares in general but the boi valuation is not something I would be able to argue that the price won't drop.

Shurwhynot

gordongekko wrote: »

why won't they drop?. I'm a holder of two bank shares but neither of them are Irish banks and im fond of bank shares in general but the boi valuation is not something I would be able to argue that the price won't drop.

Drop and plummet are two different things though IMO. They are rising steadily, nearly at 25p currently, and i'm just wondering what affect a rights issue generally has on a share price?

gordongekko

Shurwhynot wrote: »

Drop and plummet are two different things though IMO. They are rising steadily, nearly at 25p currently, and i'm just wondering what affect a rights issue generally has on a share price?

define plummet?

Sonnenblumen

Shurwhynot wrote: »

Drop and plummet are two different things though IMO. They are rising steadily, nearly at 25p currently, and i'm just wondering what affect a rights issue generally has on a share price?

Well it all depends, for existing shareholders, new shares are usually discounted. Rights issue can also lead to consolidation and have a positive effect on appreciating share price.

In recent years BoI have had 2 rights issue, and certainly the last one has worked well and I cannot remember the previous one, but I guess, it took place before SP imploded.

lucky john

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Well it all depends, for existing shareholders, new shares are usually discounted. Rights issue can also lead to consolidation and have a positive effect on appreciating share price.

In recent years BoI have had 2 rights issue, and certainly the last one has worked well and I cannot remember the previous one, but I guess, it took place before SP imploded.

I think it was around 50c. I did take it up but trying to forget it. The last was one was at 10c and sp went below that for a while as well. Its pointless applying logic to this share so I plan to take up the issue and just hope I recover some losses. If I do it will be down to luck and nothing more. Plenty of reasons not to invest I know but its worth rolling the dice on this one.

AIB at 10c today is even more surprising. Is there even 1% of it floatin?

roro2

lucky john wrote: »

AIB at 10c today is even more surprising. Is there even 1% of it floatin?

0.2%. The NPRF values its shares at 0.8c - only silly retail money pushing the shares up to 10c.

caoty

AIB share price is well in the Ponzi scheme range. BOI is a different story.

The current AIB share price means that it is almost 7 times larger/more valuable than BOI.

lucky john wrote: »

I think it was around 50c. I did take it up but trying to forget it. The last was one was at 10c and sp went below that for a while as well. Its pointless applying logic to this share so I plan to take up the issue and just hope I recover some losses. If I do it will be down to luck and nothing more. Plenty of reasons not to invest I know but its worth rolling the dice on this one.

AIB at 10c today is even more surprising. Is there even 1% of it floatin?

mickman

The markets are getting very bubbly , from housing in UK and Australia to US securities.

However this is the time that biggest gains are made , i believe that we are entering the final stage in the bull market and the gains could be very large over the next 6-12 months

Irrational exuberance is setting in again and people are starting to say "its different this time" , "new era for earnings" and all that rubbish.

I own BOI since 10c and saw it climb another 7% today

If the FED doesnt taper then all bets are off as to how high the markets can go

Hold on tight

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

mickman

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

markets can remain irrational much longer then you can remain solvent

Im sure ye have heard that before