UEFA Champions League Q/Final draw 20/3 11am

redout

We're mere hours away from the Champions League draw, and with four Premier League clubs remaining, the stage is set for some thrilling encounters to be selected.

Remember, the teams left in the competition are (in order of this season's UEFA co-efficients):

Liverpool
England
Bayern Munich
Germany
Barcelona
Spain
Chelsea
England
Manchester United
England
Arsenal
England
Villarreal
Spain
FC Porto
Portugal

It doesn't take a statistician to see that the draw is once again Premier League-dominated - but a closer look at the numbers suggests that there is a good chance of it producing some interesting ties.

All things being equal, and assuming a random draw, there is a a mere eight in 35 chance - or 22% - that no English team will meet another in the Champions League quarter-final draw on Friday lunchtime (LIVE on Goal.com.) Needless to say, that gives a 78% probability that a Premier League side will meet any other Premier League side.

In other words, just like last year - when Arsenal met Liverpool - we face the prospect of an all-Premier League tie when the matches are drawn in Nyon at 12:00 CET on March 20th.

But for Arsenal or Liverpool individually - and we can take this for the other English sides, too - to meet another Premier League outfit is 43% likely at the start of the draw. As for the prospect of a foreign team coming up against any given Premier League outfit, well, that's 4/7, or 57%.

As for Arsenal coming up against Liverpool themselves, well, that's easy - it's a one in seven chance that any given team will meet any other, so it's 14.3% before the draw begins. So, when you see that first team come out of the hat, take your guess for the second one and you have that much chance of being right.

But what if you sit down before the draw, write down the four combinations of teams in all four matches, and then see that they're all correct? You've just managed a one-in-105 shot, or a 0.95% chance of success come true - and that's before we take home and away advantage into account.

http://www.goal.com/en/news/1717/editorial/2009/03/19/1163842/comment-a-statistical-look-at-the-champions-league-draw



So a 78% chance of an All-English tie makes the draw a bit boring in my eyes but that still leaves the highly unlikely 22% chance of all four English sides avoiding one and other which would be great in my opinion as we could have an All-English semi-final lineup which would be a first in the competitions history.

The draw will be live on Eurosport in the morning from 11am. The quarter-final first legs will be played on 7/8 April and the return matches the following week. The four winning teams will know who they will meet in the semi-finals – taking place on 28/29 April and 5/6 May – as those pairings will also be decided during the draw ceremony. The final will be played on Wednesday 27 May at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome at 20.45CET.

mayordenis

please christ Liverpool vs. United

redout

How the hell are Bayern, Pool, Barca and Chelsea all ahead of United in this season's UEFA co-efficients ? I dont get it at all. We are European and Premier league champions, semi-finalists FA cup, top of the premiership, and Champion league Q/finalists. Just beggars belief. Think that Uefa co-efficient is a load of bull tbh.

mayordenis

redout wrote: »

How the hell are Bayern, Pool, Barca and Chelsea all ahead of United in this season's UEFA co-efficients ? I dont get it at all. We are European and Premier league champions, semi-finalists FA cup, top of the premiership, and Champion league Q/finalists. Just beggars belief. Think that Uefa co-efficient is a load of bull tbh.

It's over a 5 year period and I think it's heavily weighted towards european as opposed to domestic competitions.

5starpool

100% weighted, not heavily weighted.

redout

mayordenis wrote: »

It's over a 5 year period and I think it's heavily weighted towards european as opposed to domestic competitions.

That five seasons you mentioned doesnt add up. Here is what each of the five clubs have done in the past five seasons and I am baffled how United are ranked 5th out of the five. Chelsea look like the only side who should probably be above United.

Man Utd 2003-2008
FA cup
League cup
Premiership x 2
Champions League + one semi-final

Liverpool 2003-2008
FA cup
Champions league + one runners-up & one semi-final

Chelsea 2003-2008
FA cup
League cup x 2
Premiership x 2
Champions league semi-finalists x 3 + one runners-up

FC Barcelona 2003-2008
La Liga x 2
Champions league + one semi-final

FC Bayern Munchen 2003-2008
Bundesliga x 3
German cup x 3

redout

5starpool wrote: »

100% weighted, not heavily weighted.

Its a 100% only got to do with the champions league ? Well then that doesnt make sense because look above to what I have wrote. United could not be 5th out of them five clubs.

Theresalwaysone

Id say it doesnt take into consideration any of the domestic cups/leagues.

And I suspect a win in the CL is very heavily weighted.

edit: but what the hell are Bayern doing there

Mr Alan

its entirely to do with performances in Europe redout. Utd are not the best in the Champions League over the last 5 years, hence why there seeding doesnt make them so. Sorry if that offends you.

redout

Mr Alan wrote: »

its entirely to do with performances in Europe redout. Utd are not the best in the Champions League over the last 5 years, hence why there seeding doesnt make them so. Sorry if that offends you.

All I said is that co-efficient above cant be correct. How the hell are Bayern ahead of United ffs ! Liverpool, Chelsea and Barca ok but Bayern ? No way man.

5starpool

UEFA cup counts as well, but the CL is weighted heavier than that.

redout

Ok I have worked this out. Over the past five seasons United are not the fifth ranked out of the five clubs above as that would be Bayern Munich. On this seasons co-efficient only its Pool, Bayern, Barca then United and Chelsea are joint fourth equal on points. Jesus that was baffling there for moment

Victor McDade

Utd v liverpool PLEASE

We need revenge...

Vokes

It's not just about how far they get in the CL / UEFA cups.

It also takes into account the number of wins and draws.

Im guessing Bayern / Pool have won a lot more matches in the 5 year period.

mike65

Bayern please, they are down to thier last fit striker.

Dcully

savemejebas wrote: »

Utd v liverpool PLEASE

We need revenge...

Fingers crossed we get you lot to put fear of God into Vidic yet again

citytillidie

redout wrote: »

That five seasons you mentioned doesnt add up. Here is what each of the five clubs have done in the past five seasons and I am baffled how United are ranked 5th out of the five. Chelsea look like the only side who should probably be above United.

Man Utd 2003-2008
FA cup
League cup
Premiership x 2
Champions League + one semi-final

Liverpool 2003-2008
FA cup
Champions league + one runners-up & one semi-final

Chelsea 2003-2008
FA cup
League cup x 2
Premiership x 2
Champions league semi-finalists x 3 + one runners-up

FC Barcelona 2003-2008
La Liga x 2
Champions league + one semi-final

FC Bayern Munchen 2003-2008
Bundesliga x 3
German cup x 3

Nothing to do with what they win in their own country, its all how they did in Europe. United maybe holders but remember not so long ago they were knocked out in the Group stage of the Champions League that cost them alot.

redout

citytillidie wrote: »

Nothing to do with what they win in their own country, its all how they did in Europe. United maybe holders but remember not so long ago they were knocked out in the Group stage of the Champions League that cost them alot.

This was already mentioned albeit after I posted the quoted above.

Draupnir

Anyone but Liverpool, I dont want United having to face the Anfield factor which cant be underestimated. If we have to play them in Europe, let it be in the final.

Dcully

Draupnir wrote: »

Anyone but Liverpool, I dont want United having to face the Anfield factor which cant be underestimated. If we have to play them in Europe, let it be in the final.

No Anfield factor last weekend

Draupnir

Dcully wrote: »

No Anfield factor last weekend

Okay.......how is that relevant to this thread though? I was actually saying something positive about Liverpool, you realise that don't you?

mike65

Settle!

JerryHandbag

Just have a feeling its gonna be United v Arsenal, dont think theyve ever met in europe?

SlickRic

i think it was karma who said in the 'Pool thread, and i happen to agree; as a liverpool fan i would rather United, Chelsea or Barca now than in the final. we will be beaten eventually over 2 legs in Europe again, obviously, but i really think we have a better chance of taking out those teams in a 2-legged encounter that a one-off. My initial reaction to the prospect of drawing one of these 3 was probably along the lines of 'ahhhhhhhh crap', but on reflection it wouldn't be terrible.

mind you, i still wouldn't cry about getting Porto :pac:

Draupnir

JerryHandbag wrote: »

Just have a feeling its gonna be United v Arsenal, dont think theyve ever met in europe?

Have United and Liverpool?

I expect United and Chelsea to get handy draws and Liverpool and Arsenal to get rough draws if not each other. It's generally how these things go. In fact, I'd nearly put my house on Liverpool getting Barca and knocking them out now!

Headshot

Dcully wrote: »

Fingers crossed we get you lot to put fear of God into Vidic yet again

or vidic will have Torres in his back pocket like most times

Saturday was a once off thats all

mayordenis

Headshot wrote: »

or vidic will have Torres in his back pocket like most times

Saturday was a once off thats all

We've had 4 games since torres has been at liverpool - 2 last season, you would say vidic won, maybe, the first one this season torres didn't play, and the last one?

Well I've never seen 1 striker so thouroughly dominate a defender. Once off? ye have too much faith in vidic.

Mr Alan

You also seem to forget that it was Ferdinand who man marked/raped Torres last year, not Vidic.

Ferdinand aint the same player he was last year & Vidic is now your number one defender, so he was given the job of looking after Torres.....which ended badly, for Vidic.

JerryHandbag

Draupnir wrote: »

Have United and Liverpool?

No. But that can wait for the final

mayordenis

Mr Alan wrote: »

You also seem to forget that it was Ferdinand who man marked/raped Torres last year, not Vidic.

Ferdinand aint the same player he was last year & Vidic is now your number one defender, so he was given the job of looking after Torres.....which ended badly, for Vidic.

Dcully

Draupnir wrote: »

Okay.......how is that relevant to this thread though? I was actually saying something positive about Liverpool, you realise that don't you?

Relax FFS , i put a smiley in there for a reason Mr no sense of humour :rolleyes:

Warper

Geez lets hope its not an all-English semi-final - it would be a disaster for the CL having 4 of the same teams from the same country in the semi-finals plus a lot of the time English teams meet in the CL they turn out to be boring as the teams know each other so well.

For football's sake let this be Barca's year - they have been playing the best stuff in Europe this season.

Dcully

My gutt instinct is it will be Barcas year, not a bad thing as i like a lot of Barca players.
They are playing outstanding football this season.
Guardiola is doing a fantastic job.

In fairness i do think the 8 teams left are there on merrit.
Any of them on their day have the potential to win it.

redout

I reckon Barca's defence will have them in trouble against the better teams. Chelsea, Pool and United have far better defences in my opinion and can all score goals.

Headshot

Mr Alan wrote: »

You also seem to forget that it was Ferdinand who man marked/raped Torres last year, not Vidic.

Ferdinand aint the same player he was last year & Vidic is now your number one defender, so he was given the job of looking after Torres.....which ended badly, for Vidic.

fair enought I was wrong

It was Rio who destroyed Torres

btw Rio has had back problems this season so its a bit unfair to say he's not the player of last season

Dcully

redout wrote: »

I reckon Barca's defence will have them in trouble against the better teams. Chelsea, Pool and United have far better defences in my opinion and can all score goals.

Totally agree with you but also think Barca can outscore most teams.

eZe^

redout wrote: »

I reckon Barca's defence will have them in trouble against the better teams. Chelsea, Pool and United have far better defences in my opinion and can all score goals.

Barca's defence has never ever been as good a Liverpool's or United's in the past twenty years I'd say, and it hasn't been as good as Chelsea's in the past 5. Yet in the past 5 years they've won the same amount of CL's as the first two, and more than Chelsea. Barca's play has never been defensively orientated, and never will be. I'm actually bored of that statement being made by every Tom, Dick and Harry who has watched a Liverpool or Barca game.

redout

Dcully wrote: »

Totally agree with you but also think Barca can outscore most teams.

Well United locked them out last season in both legs of the semi's and Pool could certainly disrupt Barca's style of play to nearly make them ineffective I reckon. Pique and Cruyff have both said they would rather avoid Liverpool already as their style of play doesnt suit Barca. I would love Barca to knockout Pool but I reckon it will be a tough ask.

~Rebel~

Headshot wrote: »

btw Rio has had back problems this season so its a bit unfair to say he's not the player of last season

on the contrary, its totally fair to say Rio isn't the player he was last season, and you've given the reason yourself. Just cause its not his fault doesnt mean its not true.

Same is true for Torres, he's not the player of last season either, thanks to constant hamstring injuries stopping him reaching full fitness.

bUILDERtHEbOB

I hope we get Bayern, just so Rafa can hopefully humiliate Klinsmann and show Hicks and Gillete how big a mistake they could have made

What are the odds on two all English quarter finals leading to an all English semi final?.

PHB

I thought United were seeded number one in the coefficents this year because they won it? I thought that happened every year that the winner was the highest seed, even though they werent the highest in the coefficients.

Should be a fun draw.

dannydiamond

Disclaimer first: I'm a liverpool fan.




I just can't see past Liverpool,Barca,and Man U for the trophy.

I'll go one step further and say that Barca will have a real chance if they don't have to face one of the other two over two legs,ie avoid them 'til the final.

While Barca have looked awsome at times this season,over two legs against Liverpool or United I'd back heavily with either of the two English teams,but in a one off final it could really go any way between any of the three.



feel free to quote me in a few weeks and destroy me at will:)

CHD

dannydiamond wrote: »

Disclaimer first: I'm a liverpool fan.




I just can't see past Liverpool,Barca,and Man U for the trophy.

I'll go one step further and say that Barca will have a real chance if they don't have to face one of the other two over two legs,ie avoid them 'til the final.

While Barca have looked awsome at times this season,over two legs against Liverpool or United I'd back heavily with either of the two English teams,but in a one off final it could really go any way between any of the three.



feel free to quote me in a few weeks and destroy me at will:)

Cool. Hope we get Liverpool. Essien to win the CL for Chelsea.

dannydiamond

CHD wrote: »

Cool. Hope we get Liverpool. Essien to win the CL for Chelsea.

Very constructive,thank you for your well articulated arguments.

kingshankly

have a feeling utd will get chelsea.
hope liverpool dont get chelsea for the sake of football.
personally would like liverpool to get bayern would be easier to get a ticket for munich and its a ground i have never been to.
heres my predictions
liverpool v bayern
man utd v chelsea
arsenal v barcelona
porto v villareal

Dont be at yourself

I'm hoping for Bayern or Man Utd. Neither will be an easy tie, but they'll at least be interesting!

Apparently in the practice draw this morning, United got Liverpool and Chelsea got Arsenal................conspiracy theorists unite!

spockety

For a guaranteed stream:

http://www.rte.ie/live/

L'prof

Just did a random draw there:

Villareal v Porto
Chelsea v Bayern Munich

Barcelona v Liverpool
Man Utd v Arsenal

Me no Likey!

L'prof

Just did a second one there:

Arsenal v Chelsea
Barcelona v Man Utd

Liverpool v Porto
Bayern Munich v Villareal

Twice with 3 English teams on one side and 1 on the other!

mike65

They could do 10 draws and Prem teams would prolly draw each other 6/7 times