Waterways, Ashtown, D15.

shamblertine

Anyone know when the next viewing session of these flats will be? Not particularly interested at current prices but wouldn't mind having a nosey about.

belcarra

There was viewings on Wed and again on Sat from 2-5.

I personally think they are decent value and maybe are a case of a developer trying to get some sort of cash due to cash-flow difficulties.
They might drop a little more but I wouldn't think they'd leave you in too much trouble...not like those who bought in the past year or two anyways!

shamblertine

So theres going to be more viewing this sat? They are getting close to reasonable price but still think they are overpriced, and wouldn't want to buy what with the state of the economy at the minute.

inforfun

First of all i dont know if the same rules apply for all the estates in that area.
But i have rented for a year in Royal Canal park. The area is quite nice. The train wasnt a problem for me but then again, i used to live about 100 meters away from the busiest railroad (day and night) going out of the port of Rotterdam in Holland. So i was used to much worse.

What did bug me there though was: had to sign up for tv with a not so great tv provider. Very basic tv and broadband i didnt even consider. This was 1 year ago, might be better now.
Sky dishes were not allowed.
Bbq on your balcony was out of the question.

Again, these kind of things might not be the case in every estate over there but if they are important to you, you better look into it.

belcarra

I think I saw Eircom phone connections when I was there last sat. Can't be sure though. I know my sister that lived close by had a different company and they went bust soon after she moved in! No sat dishes would be fairly typical for apts.

One thing I didn't like about these apts was the excessive storage space/room. I def think that in the 2 and 3 beds they could have made much better use of the space. Although maybe it's one of those things that you'd forget about once you moved your stuff in!!

Doubt I'll be pursuing anything here as after looking at my finances it'd just be too much for me at the moment so no point in putting myself in an uncomfortable cash flow situation but if it was a few months down the line I'd def have seriously considered them.

EnigmasWhisper

My sister went to view the appartments this weekend, all sold out apparently. I wonder if there will be another phase, are anymore planned ? Will they even go ahead with them considering the economic climate, and I heard the developers are experiencing financial probs

Eglinton

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

My sister went to view the appartments this weekend, all sold out apparently. I wonder if there will be another phase, are anymore planned ? Will they even go ahead with them considering the economic climate, and I heard the developers are experiencing financial probs

Interesting. Can't believe people actually bought those ground floor apartments. Like living in a glass box with the general public peering in at you all day long. And if the developers are in financial difficulty, will they finish the landscaping etc.

shamblertine

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

My sister went to view the appartments this weekend, all sold out apparently. I wonder if there will be another phase, are anymore planned ? Will they even go ahead with them considering the economic climate, and I heard the developers are experiencing financial probs

I find that hard to believe, yeah the 1 bed apartments were fairly good value compared to whats on offer on the rest of the market, but there was a big increase in price for the 2 and 3 bed apartments.

Who are all these people who are getting mortgages anyway? Most be public sector workers with their jobs for life :mad:

who_ru

shamblertine wrote: »

Anyone know when the next viewing session of these flats will be? Not particularly interested at current prices but wouldn't mind having a nosey about.

i find that a shocking statement

gurramok

who_ru wrote: »

i find that a shocking statement

Why, because they are flats?

EnigmasWhisper

shamblertine wrote: »

I find that hard to believe, yeah the 1 bed apartments were fairly good value compared to whats on offer on the rest of the market, but there was a big increase in price for the 2 and 3 bed apartments.

Who are all these people who are getting mortgages anyway? Most be public sector workers with their jobs for life :mad:

There was one ground floor, and one penthouse left on Monday morning. At those prices Im not surprised to be honest, fantastic value compared to whats been on offer elsewhere

EnigmasWhisper

shamblertine wrote: »

Anyone know when the next viewing session of these flats will be? Not particularly interested at current prices but wouldn't mind having a nosey about.

Im surprised you think that. The developer of this complex knocked over E100,000 off them because basically he needs to shift them to balance the books. Prices are only going to go down another 9% anyway as the market is almost bottomed out judging what prices property is beginning to go at in auctions, always a good indicator. So even if they do go down by another 9% this year, she wouldnt have lost much money, certainly not as much people have lost in recent yrs.

These prices are actually considerably less than you will get a one bedroom appartment for in any major european city right now, and they are reflective of the market and economy.

I suspect these prices wont be seen again, for a one bedroom appartment E144,000 (less the 10% knocked off the original price of E159,000 to encourage people to buy !) Considering a one bed ground floor appartment in the same area was in or around E275,000 this time 2 years ago, thats a pretty big drop. Shes down for a cancelation anyway so hopefuly it will work out for her

gurramok

How do you these 1beds will go down by 9% only?

Amazing how you think the bottom is nearly reached based on one house at an auction :eek:

EnigmasWhisper

gurramok wrote: »

How do you these 1beds will go down by 9% only?

Amazing how you think the bottom is nearly reached based on one house at an auction :eek:

Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

Eglinton

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

€131,000 more?!?:p

But seriously, you can never say there's a minimum. It's whatever the developer will agree to. And plenty of them are gettin more and more desperate to off-load. One bed apartments are not a great purchase for any buyer no matter what their circumstances.

martian1980

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

I think that although taxes are going up next week, jobs are being lost, people are emigrating, the arse continues to fall out of the public finances and there are idle construction sites and vacant properties all over dublin that prices can only go up from here. We have plainly reached a level where all of the residential construction overhang will be cleared.

gurramok

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

The auction was highlighted in the tabloids this week as one posh house sold in D4 and hyped up as the party was back on hence i referred to the auction you quoted. Unless, what other auction are you referring to?

The above 2 posters answered your questions, i just love to know how you figured out 9% and 132 grand?

My 'educated guess' is that they will go below 132k until such time the state of the economy stabilises as a 1bed is not a family home and that time is many years away.
So yes, the present buyers of this latest phase will be in negative equity pretty soon depending on the size of their mortgage.

EnigmasWhisper

gurramok wrote: »

The auction was highlighted in the tabloids this week as one posh house sold in D4 and hyped up as the party was back on hence i referred to the auction you quoted. Unless, what other auction are you referring to?.

Im not sure about 'posh houses' Im referring to auction prices in general that seem to demonstrate prices seem very close to bottoming out.

gurramok wrote: »

The above 2 posters answered your questions, i just love to know how you figured out 9% and 132 grand?

I was asking you. 9% is my own guess and also taking into account the prediction of 9/10 % predicted by the ESRI. House prices are now at where they were 2004 / 2005 and the fall in prices is stabilizing, albeit slowly.

As for the 132 grand simple math.

Original cost of The Waterways appartment - E159,000

Less 10% (explained) offered by developer as incentive to pruchase - E143,000

My guess / estimated further drop of 9% in the next 12 mths (12,870) on E143,000 - e130,130

So having calculated it on my phone calculator rather than in my head...E130,130

Hence why I asked you did you think it was possible for a one bedroom appartment would drop any less than E132,000

gurramok wrote: »

My 'educated guess' is that they will go below 132k until such time the state of the economy stabilises as a 1bed is not a family home and that time is many years away.
So yes, the present buyers of this latest phase will be in negative equity pretty soon depending on the size of their mortgage.

Your 'educated guess' is as pointless as mine regarding the expected 'stabilizing' of the economy and its impact on further fluctuations in the housing sector.

Its commonly perceived that the rents in a specific area are normally the best albeit crude estimate of what an apprtment / property in that area is worth.

i.e You have an appartment in an area where a rent of 1000/pm is being achieved. This works out at 12k pa. So multipy that by 20years and you get 240k. Most investors work off a single figure yeild so at 6% yeild that house is actually worth about 225k. Seems an over simplified way of measuring hosue prices, but house prices have never been measured against 'real' economic factors in recent years.

9% is a figure Im hazzarding a guess at, considering inflation, intrest rates, empty houses, studying the market and considering true propety prices considering what they would have been taking normal inflationary rises since 1995 etc etc. Im guessing the biggest corrections will be in areas like Dublin that have seen the most dramatic property prices in recent years, so considering this same appartment is more than E100,000 than something would have cost 2 yrs ago i think its safe to say its not going to fall a massive ammount more.

Traditionally 1 bed appartments hold their value in urban centres, as do their rental incomes. Someone being in 'negative' equity on an appartment bought for E130,000 now, at a point close to a bottoming out of a market, when they have saved a almost E100,000 -E130,000 on a similar appartment compared to a few years ago doesnt make any sense. Property cycles throughout the world generally follow a ten year cycle, as do property bubbles, after that the only way is up regardless of how slow that climb might be.

Anyway, I was just offering an oppinion about house prices in general and an Ashtown development my sister hopes to invest in. I thought it odd that someone might not be interested in an appartment that has just been reduced by over E100,000.

Either ways my sister she has saved a fortune being patient and waiting to purchase something. She wants a home, with an affordable mortage. She now has the possibilty of both, with nowhere near the 'negative equity' others have experienced over recent years, so I doubt she or anyone else who can afford to purchase a home for half the price it was (more or less) a few yrs ago will be too concerned with anymore falls over the coming year or two . . . unless they fall to the price of a holliday in Benidorm

empirix

i thought these were ok, would prefer a two bed, still the 1 beds were not that tiny, nice big balconies, could rent that out with a hammock:)

belcarra

What price would you suggest 1 beds are going for at the moment?
This is one development in a nice area which is way below in price than any other developments on the market. I think too maybe people are taking the lazy approach of seeing these prices as being reflective of the market (However small it currently is!) at the present time. I would guess that some 1 beds have been sold in the past couple of months for €200,000 plus. These particular apts were set at a level simply for them to shift...and that's what they did! The overall market hasn't reached this level yet. However, I'm not saying it won't at some stage in the not too distant future but to simply state that they are on offer for "price x" must mean they will sell for at least "price x minus 15%" or whatever rate is plucked out of the sky is just lazy.
In summary, there is value in those prices (At the moment) but that might also disappear. However, any amount of negative equity resulting from these apts will be minor (and probably bearable) in comparison to that Neg Eq us householders from the past few years will potentially face once this situation has levelled off. Also conversely, they should move back into positive equity much sooner than the general population!

EnigmasWhisper

Eglinton wrote: »

€131,000 more?!?:p

But seriously, you can never say there's a minimum. It's whatever the developer will agree to. And plenty of them are gettin more and more desperate to off-load. One bed apartments are not a great purchase for any buyer no matter what their circumstances.

True, who knows...all guess work. As for the so called experts and their predictions pfffttt. My sis is happy enough with these prices now, and I agree that a one bed appartment isnt always a good purchase but I gues sits relative. Shes single, wants her own place and her mortage repayments is less than her rent. Even if the price falls by a massive ammount more, she wont be crippled with repayments. If the day comes when she gets married, moves on etc, she plans to just rent it out so either ways I guess shes grand . . . and saving a fortune compared to what her glloating friends paid for similar places a few yrs back Patience is a virtue. Although personally, I would have waited another year but she like the area so ? . . .her money

EnigmasWhisper

belcarra wrote: »

What price would you suggest 1 beds are going for at the moment?
This is one development in a nice area which is way below in price than any other developments on the market. I think too maybe people are taking the lazy approach of seeing these prices as being reflective of the market (However small it currently is!) at the present time. I would guess that some 1 beds have been sold in the past couple of months for €200,000 plus. These particular apts were set at a level simply for them to shift...and that's what they did! The overall market hasn't reached this level yet. However, I'm not saying it won't at some stage in the not too distant future but to simply state that they are on offer for "price x" must mean they will sell for at least "price x minus 15%" or whatever rate is plucked out of the sky is just lazy.
In summary, there is value in those prices (At the moment) but that might also disappear. However, any amount of negative equity resulting from these apts will be minor (and probably bearable) in comparison to that Neg Eq us householders from the past few years will potentially face once this situation has levelled off. Also conversely, they should move back into positive equity much sooner than the general population!

Couldnt have said it better myself, actually thats what I wanted to say only you said it better

gurramok

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

Your 'educated guess' is as pointless as mine regarding the expected 'stabilizing' of the economy and its impact on further fluctuations in the housing sector.

On this point, my educated guess is better than yours as we are in a serious recession with the economy contracting by 7%+ yoy.

Its commonly perceived that the rents in a specific area are normally the best albeit crude estimate of what an apprtment / property in that area is worth.

i.e You have an appartment in an area where a rent of 1000/pm is being achieved. This works out at 12k pa. So multipy that by 20years and you get 240k. Most investors work off a single figure yeild so at 6% yeild that house is actually worth about 225k. Seems an over simplified way of measuring hosue prices, but house prices have never been measured against 'real' economic factors in recent years.

Strange calculation. You forgot 1month vacancy period and decreasing rents.

so considering this same appartment is more than E100,000 than something would have cost 2 yrs ago i think its safe to say its not going to fall a massive ammount more.

Traditionally 1 bed appartments hold their value in urban centres, as do their rental incomes. Someone being in 'negative' equity on an appartment bought for E130,000 now, at a point close to a bottoming out of a market, when they have saved a almost E100,000 -E130,000 on a similar appartment compared to a few years ago doesnt make any sense. Property cycles throughout the world generally follow a ten year cycle, as do property bubbles, after that the only way is up regardless of how slow that climb might be.

Just because it was 100k overvalued does not mean its good value now. They are still overpriced and you admitted that they will still fall in price. Hence its by no means a certainty that a small fall will occur, even 50k could be wiped off for a few years

One beds do not hold their values, they are the least favourite over 2beds and for a reason, they only suit one person and they have to be big to hold their value.

Anyway, I was just offering an oppinion about house prices in general and an Ashtown development my sister hopes to invest in. I thought it odd that someone might not be interested in an appartment that has just been reduced by over E100,000.

Either ways my sister she has saved a fortune being patient and waiting to purchase something. She wants a home, with an affordable mortage. She now has the possibilty of both, with nowhere near the 'negative equity' others have experienced over recent years, so I doubt she or anyone else who can afford to purchase a home for half the price it was (more or less) a few yrs ago will be too concerned with anymore falls over the coming year or two . . . unless they fall to the price of a holliday in Benidorm

Has management fees being thought of by your sis? A 2bed is nearly 2000/yr out there in RCP so a 1bed could be at least 1000-1500 a year.

One thing i noticed thats missed, just remember that because one development of 1beds offers 143k, it does not mean its the last. There will be even more offered in more desirable and central locations.

EnigmasWhisper

I didnt realise it was a 'guessing' competition

Ok, my sis has saved almost E130,000 buying a lovely appartment in Dublin (she managed to get the last one) for E147,000, rather than almost double she would have paid a few years ago.

Ill let her know that you reckon she didnt get a 'bargain' and because the market was overpriced (really?) shes not getting good value now :rolleyes:

In case she didnt realise and I forgot to mention it to her, Ill also pass on the well thought out assertation by you that we are in a recession, rents arent stable, I missed out on a months rent in my calculations of a 20 yr rental income on a similar property and she has to pay property management fees (how could she have missed that in the agreement ?)

Im thinking maybe the e1000 a yr management fees could outweigh the E130,000 she saved :rolleyes:

Im sure she will tear up the contract after reading this thread

Take it easy buddy, thanks for your concern and your lesson in economics

gurramok

Well, she could of waited for a house with its cheaper management fees, more space and plenty of room for expansion as well as privacy.(value for money hint there)

Good luck, think i'll head down to the canal at RCP on this nice day with a few cans of Dutch Gold in hand

punchestown

EnigmasWhisper wrote: »

I didnt realise it was a 'guessing' competition

Ok, my sis has saved almost E130,000 buying a lovely appartment in Dublin (she managed to get the last one) for E147,000, rather than almost double she would have paid a few years ago.

This day last year, you could have bought Bank of Ireland shares for €8.95. Two years ago to this day, they were €15.75. Imagine snaffling the shares this time last year as opposed to buying them 2 years ago! Youd have saved over 40%! Quids in, happy days!
What are they worth today? €0.68!

If you make a bad bargain, hug it all the tighter!

belcarra

The ordinary person in the street is not interested in shares but they are in houses and owning their own. People bought into shares naively trying to make a quick buck (I have some friends gulity of this!) not caring for the companies they were buying, ie no emotive link just profit.
With homes, (now that all the investors and speculators have left the buying market) people have a strong link to the product they are buying. Therefore, much sounder customer base.
Would you really expect the level of house prices to crash to such a dramatic level as the shares? Something that is so tangiable to the ordinary person?

Eglinton

belcarra wrote: »

Would you really expect the level of house prices to crash to such a dramatic level as the shares? Something that is so tangiable to the ordinary person?

*Buys popcorn

EnigmasWhisper

gurramok wrote: »

Good luck, think i'll head down to the canal at RCP on this nice day with a few cans of Dutch Gold in hand

lol Ill tell her to give you a wave

El Stuntman

belcarra wrote: »

The ordinary person in the street is not interested in shares but they are in houses and owning their own. People bought into shares naively trying to make a quick buck (I have some friends gulity of this!) not caring for the companies they were buying, ie no emotive link just profit.
With homes, (now that all the investors and speculators have left the buying market) people have a strong link to the product they are buying. Therefore, much sounder customer base.
Would you really expect the level of house prices to crash to such a dramatic level as the shares? Something that is so tangiable to the ordinary person?

hopes and dreams do not asset price supports make

property will revert to its long-term sustainable mean, this is (a) unavoidable and (b) desirable. It's unfortunate for anyone who bought property since 1998 or so but them's the breaks.