2009 Boards Monthly Forecast Contest -- Scores

M.T. Cranium

A summary of the scoring rules can be found in the previous thread about the forecast contest. Basically, it's 30 points for the monthly average, 25 each for the monthly extremes, and 20 for any bonus questions equally divided among them if there happens to be more than one.

A couple of other concepts to keep the scores reflective of effort as well as random chance ... at least one contestant has to score 20 in the first three categories, so if nobody does by the scoring system, the closest score is adjusted upwards to 20. And if the scoring system only gives three or fewer people with any points at all, then the scoring ranges will be widened until we have more than three. I don't expect these will apply very often, but that will explain any higher scores than you're expecting. If you find lower scores than you're entitled to receive, by all means let me know ... these can always be edited before the end of the proceedings.


JANUARY SCORES
______________

The correct answers according to the rules for January are 4.7 C, 13.1 C highest, -7.3 C lowest, and 123% of normal rainfall at Shannon. Not sure if that means the raindrops were 23% bigger or there was 23% more of them.

Your scores follow, four components and the total, 100 would be a perfect score and you'll see that I only missed it by 76. :eek: The rainfall percentage is scored by taking one point off the perfect 20, for every rounded off 5% error in your estimate. That means 121 to 125 per cent are considered perfect, and you can do the math on the categories either side. I know, it should be a skewed curve or something fancy, but as most were below this, it doesn't really matter.

Note also I have been lenient and allowed two somewhat late entries made on the 2nd of January, but with a ten point penalty. I would suggest we make this the standard, once a deadline is established, 10 pts the first day, 20 the second and d.q. after that. In this case, the deadline was advertised to be end of the first, so the second is like the first if you catch my drift.

Note the questions were not in this order but this is the standard scoring order that I plan to use ... monthly mean, monthly max, monthly min, bonus.

MATT CORK ... (24,25,22,11) ... 82
NEMONOID ... (26,20,24,12) ... 82
CH750536 ..(22,19,23,17) ... 81
DASA29 ... (25,16,22,14) ... 75
REDSUNSET ... (17,21,22,13) ... 73
TROGDOR ... (26,23,13,09) ... 71
JD .............. (26,23,19,12) ... 80-10 ... 70
SUPERCELL ... (24,15,19,10) ... 68
ARCTICTREE .. (24,13,24,07) ... 68
DEEP EASTERLY . (28,16,11,12) ... 67
DOCARCH ... (13,18,24,09) ... 64
FORCE ELEVEN .. (19,21,11,13) ... 64
SNOWBIE ... (25,13,17,04) ... 59
STRASSER ... (18,17,11,11) ... 57
CAZ 32 ... (19,13,08,17) ... 57
GURRAMOK ... (24,07,22,04) ... 57
DANNO .... (29,13,00,14) ... 56
RC28 ...... (27,17,03,09) ... 56
VILLAIN .... (07,19,23,05) ... 54
KINDRED SPIRIT .. (19,24,10,11) ... 64-10 ... 54
NACHO LIBRE . (20,12,04,12) ... 48
NILHG ...... (18,00,19,09) ... 46
SHAMWARI ... (11,03,09,11) ... 34
HAL1 ........ (07,03,00,16) ... 26
MTCRANIUM . (16,08,00,00) ... 24

Plenty of good efforts there, and one or two not so good.

Working on February, will post 'em soon.

M.T. Cranium

Look for the February scores by tomorrow, thanks to Niall and Aidan at the climate office of met.ie ... they gave me the scoop on the right answers to the snow questions. We won't have to wait for the monthly summary now. If you're curious, the right answers for the month are:

Feb mean (average of highest and lowest) 5.8 C

Feb max temp 12.7 C

Feb min temp -5.1 C (seems rather lame given the cold spell, but that's it)

Snow observed at Dublin 5 days

Snow lying at Casement 7 days

Boards.ie members unhappy with the mild weather after 11th ... 28,479

M.T. Cranium

FEBRUARY SCORES

The scoring follows the same rules as January, but for the two bonus questions, it's simply this ... ten points max for each one, and one point lost for each day you're out. (5 and 7 days being correct answers).

Nilhg ..... (23,23,20,10,10) ... 86
Strasser ... (22,21,15,09,06) ... 73
Nacho Libre . (21,14,15,08,09) ... 67
Hellboy .... (22,24,00,10,09) ... 65
Maquiladora .. (23,22,00,09,09) ... 63
Fionagus .. (21,20,03,10,08) ... 62
CH750536 .... (25,19,01,09,07) ... 61
Supercell ... (19,21,00,08,08) ... 56
Trogdor .... (13,24,00,09,09) ... 55
RC 28 ...... (20,19,00,08,07) ... 54
MTCranium .. (15,20,00,10,09) ... 54
Dasa29 ..... (17,00,16,08,10) ... 51
Docarch .... (18,06,14,07,06) ... 51
Kindred Spirit (12,19,06,09,05) ... 51
Pangea .... (22,08,00,09,09) ... 48
Danno ...... (19,14,00,07,08) ... 48
Matt Cork .. (20,09,00,08,08) ... 45
JD .......... (09,12,00,09,10) ... 40
200motels ... (07,12,00,02,00) ... 21
Redsunset .. (12,00,00,05,04) ... 21


(entries to the end of the first accepted without penalty as per January)

(scores rather low for monthly minimum, but no upgrades from the rules posted, one score reached 20 and more than three had scores)

(most were pretty close on the other four elements, congrats to Nilhg for an almost clairvoyant effort, look for met.ie vans parked outside).

I will post some cumulative scores after we have March scores, but let me know if anyone has changed user ID from Jan to Feb or from Feb to March, I won't be aware of such things out here in the far reaches of the galaxy.

:cool:

Danno

Thank you MTC! Good work there lad.

Won't be long now till we are answering the April ones!

nilhg

Cheers MTC, great work.


Looks as if I'm in for an up and down season.........

M.T. Cranium

AVERAGE SCORES JAN-FEB for contestants who entered both times.

(this will be updated every month, averages will be available for anyone who stays ahead of 2/3, 3/4, 3/5, 4/6, 5/7, 6/8, 7/9, 8/10, 9/11 and 10/12).

CH750536 ... 71
Nilhg ..... 66
Strasser ... 65
Matt Cork ... 63.5
Dasa 29 ...... 63
Trogdor ...63
Supercell ... 62
Docarch ... 57.5
Nacho Libre ... 57.5
RC 28 ......... 55
JD .......... 55
Kindred Spirit .. 52.5
Danno .... 52
Redsunset .... 47
MTCranium ... 39


Please let me know if you entered both months under two separate IDs or if you change your user ID during the course of the year

M.T. Cranium

MARCH SCORES

This post will be edited as the data become available. So far it shows the three main guesses of each entrant and the scores for the bonus questions, to which the correct answers were 16.8 C and "no." To give a wide enough range for points to be scored on the max temp 17th, I used 0.2 C error per point deduction from ten, otherwise very few points would have been scored.

Trogdor ... (6.5,18.9,-3.6, 00, 10)
Redsunset ... (9.0,16.0,-3.0,01,10)
Nacho libre .. (7.2, 16.9,-3.4C,00,00)
Kindred Spirit .. (7.5,15.0.-2.0,00,00)
JD ...... (7.4,16.7,-3.8C,02,10)
Dasa29 .... (7.0,14.0,0.0,06,10)
RC 28 .... (7.6, 16.8, -1.5,00,10)
200 Motels .. (8.0,18.0,-4.0,00,00)
MTCranium .. (6.3,15.4,-2.8,00,00)
Docarch ... (6.9.15.8,-3.2,00,00)
Strasser ... (6.4,16.7,-3.1,00,00)
Danno ... (6.7,15.6,-4.1,00,00)
Nilhg (6.7,14.9,-3.2,00,00)

These scores will be converted when monthly data become available.

M.T. Cranium

MARCH SCORES

Instead of editing the above, I am re-posting, to show up in the menu so that people will know that scores are available. Also, the scores for the highest temp on March 17th have been adjusted upwards to reflect the rule about minimum scoring (only three plus ties scored any points using the basic rule, so I added two points to those better forecasts, and gave 2 and 1 points to the next two closest ... everyone was too low on these forecasts as it turned out).

The monthly stats are in, and the answers are:

Monthly average was 7.5 C (average of 8.8 C at Valentia and 6.2 at Knock)

Max temp for the month was 18.9 C at Valentia on the 18th

Min temp was -4.1 at Casement on the 5th.

As mentioned earlier, the bonus questions were 16.8 C on the 17th and "no precip at Dublin 17th."

The revised scores for March are as follows:

Trogdor ... (20,25,20, 00, 10) ... 75
JD ......... (29,03,22,04,10) ... 68
200 Motels .. (25,16,24,03,00) ... 68
Nacho libre .. (27,05,18,00,00) ... 50
Strasser ... (19,03,15,00,00) ... 47
Danno ..... (22,00,25,00,00) ... 47
RC 28 ........ (29,04,00,02,10) ... 45
Dasa29 ....... (25,00,00,08,10) ... 43
Redsunset .... (15,00,14,03,10) ... 42
Docarch ..... (24,00,16,01,00) ... 41
Nilhg ..... (22,00,16,00,00) ... 38
Kindred Spirit .. (30,00,04,00,00) ... 34
MTCranium .. (18,00,12,00,00) ... 30

Okay, I shall work on the three-month average scores in a while.

In passing, just wanted to ask each entrant if they understand that "monthly max temp" is the highest value anywhere in Ireland during the month, not the "average daily high." Some of the answers seem to reflect the idea that questions two and three are average daily high and low, because for example one or two competitors give a higher value for the 17th than for the month as a whole, and some of the answers for question one are the average of answers for two and three. I mention this because these answers are going to score generally close to zero every month if you're under that shall we say illusion. Of course, I can score close to zero even understanding the rules, so what can I say?

Danno

Thanks for keeping it going MTC, fair play to you lad. Keep up the good work.

M.T. Cranium

SCORES AFTER THREE MONTHS ...

Just updating the cumulative scoring, for people who entered all three months, noting any others who have two entries so far (separate list).

Average scores Jan-Mar

Trogdor ...67 (3)
JD .......... 59.3 (3)
Strasser ... 59 (3)
Nilhg ..... 56.7 (3)
Dasa 29 ...... 56.3 (3)
Nacho Libre ... 55 (3)
Docarch ... 52 (3)
RC 28 ......... 51.7 (3)
Danno .... 50.3 (3)
Kindred Spirit .. 46.3 (3)
Redsunset .... 45.3 (3)
MTCranium ... 36 (3)

---

(2 of 3 months entered)

CH750536 ... 71 (2)
Matt Cork ... 63.5 (2)
Supercell ... 62 (2)
200 Motels ... 44.5 (2)

M.T. Cranium

Here are the forecast "right answers" for April ...

Mean temp 9.1 (mean of 10.0 and 8.1 as the highest and lowest in Ireland)

Max temp 17.8 C, recorded on the 20th at Casement and Oak Park

Min temp -0.9 C, recorded at both Dublin on the 11th and Claremorris on the 12th.

As already noted, the max temp on the 26th at Cork was 10.4 C. Because all of us guessed well above that, the scores (out of ten) will be on a rank order basis, 8 for closest, then 7, 6 etc down to 1 for 8th best.

The sunshine at Valentia turned out to be 91% of normal, and scores are based on one point deducted from max of 10, for each 5% error (rounded).

The main elements are scored as usual and are worth 80% of the total.

So, the scores for April are as follows:


Strasser (21, 18, 24, 06 , 09) ... 78

Nacho libre .... (26, 12, 22, 01, 04) ... 65

Nilhg ........ (25, 15, 15, 04, 05) ... 64

dasa29 ....... (21, 13, 24, 00 , 04) ... 62

MTCranium .... (23, 00, 23, 05, 08) ... 59

Kindredspirit .. (29, 03, 24, 00 , 02) ... 58

Docarch ...... (25, 10, 11, 07, 05) ... 58

Danno ......... (23, 19, 04, 08, 00) ... 54

Hellboy99 ..... (27, 13, 11, 01, 01) ... 53

Trogdor ....... (28, 02, 13, 02, 07) ... 52

Redsunset ..... (29, 00, 14, 00 , 03) ... 46

200motels ...... (18, 00, 15, 03, 00) ... 36


Well done to Strasser for winning the April contest. In general, the pack seems to have tightened up this month. I will post the cumulative scores later on.

M.T. Cranium

Now for the update to the cumulative contest scoring ... your averages for January to April, first for those who have entered all four times:

Strasser ... 63.75 (4)
Trogdor ...63.25 (4)
Nilhg ..... 58.5 (4)
Dasa 29 ...... 57.75 (4)
Nacho Libre ... 57.5 (4)
Docarch ... 53.5 (4)
Danno .... 51.25 (4)
Kindred Spirit .. 49.25 (4)
Redsunset .... 45.5 (4)
MTCranium ... 41.75 (4)

---

And for those who have entered 3 of 4 months so far ...

JD .......... 59.3 (3)
RC 28 ......... 51.7 (3)
200 Motels ... 41.7 (3)

Looking at the year-long race, Strasser has now edged in front of Trogdor by a fraction of a point, and everyone else maintained their position but I think the pack is tightening up. Good luck in May (make sure you've entered). :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Well, I spaced out and posted the following at the end of the May thread, it should have been here ...

For the three main parts of the May forecast, the results are:

Monthly mean 10.8 C

Highest of month 24.4 C (31st, Birr)

Lowest of month 0.3 C (10th, Claremorris)

The bonus questions as already stated in previous post, Dublin on 16th, maximum temp was 13.2 C and the rainfall 5.1 mms.

Scoring for the three main components will proceed as normal, the range of guesses was pretty much straddled on the actual values so we have no shortage of qualifying points. The scoring for the max temp at Dublin will go by rank, because everyone tended to be quite a bit higher (I think this was about the coolest day of the month as it turned out). So closest gets 10 pts, and so on. As for the rainfall, I think this is fair: points drop off by one per half mm error on the down side, then one per mm on the up side, so if anyone went above 15 mm in their guess or said zero, they score zero for being as far off in relative terms of probability.

I am sure nobody cares that much but we can meet at the United Nations which is about half-way for me, should there be a serious dispute breaking out.

Okay then, here are your scores, for the merry merry month of May. Two who were a day late were also a buck short, so I didn't penalize them (new rule, late entry, 60+ lose 10% above 60, below 60, as it didn't help to be late, no penalty)

(10.8,24.4,0.3,13.2,5.1)

Danno ...... (29,17,18,03,01) ... 68
Nilhg ...... (28,19,17,00,01) ... 65
MTCranium .... (10,25,19,00,10) ... 64
200Motels ... (26,22,11,00,01) ... 60
Dasa29 ...... (13,09,22,10,05) ... 59
Hellboy99 .... (25,00,18,00,02) ... 45
Docarch ..... (22,00,15,03,01) ... 41
Nacho libre ... (22,00,09,02,03) ... 36
Kindred Spirit .. (18,00,08,09,01) ... 36
JD ...... (13,19,03,00,00) ... 35
Strasser .... (00,06,20,05,00) ... 31
Redsunset .. (22,01,00,05,00) ... 28
The Inquisitor .. (28,00,00,00,00) ... 28
Trogdor ... (14,03,00,01,00) ... 18
Green Giant ... (02,00,00,05,04) ... 11

I will update the annual (cumulative) scoring a bit later as it is now breakfast time here by the (other) sea. Congrats to Danno, Nilhg and some other guy whose name escapes me for cleaning up the slim pickings this month, also 200motels and Dasa29 did quite nicely. Bit of a trainwreck in general though. The new five-month totals should be interesting, some changes ahead for sure.

(cumulative scores a bit later today then, heading out for a while now)

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, fully awake now (we have the same weather as you at the moment, sunny and hot), I shall tackle the ever-intriguing annual race to meteorological might, or might not ...

We are now far enough into the year that I have merged the "every month" crew with the dynamic duo of four out of five entries; we are getting some new entrants too and I encourage them to continue even though they have started in a bit late to get into this table in any fair comparison format (the monthly scores go up and down quite a bit on average) ...

With May's results now in, the cumulative scores look like this, the number in brackets is your number of months entered. I guess we are now the "dirty dozen" ... :cool:


1. Nilhg ..... 59.8 (5)
2. Dasa 29 ...... 58.0 (5)
3. Strasser ... 57.2 (5)
4. Danno .... 54.6 (5)
5. Trogdor ... 54.2 (5)
6. JD .......... 53.25 (4)
7. Nacho Libre ... 53.2 (5)
8. Docarch ... 51.0 (5)
9. Kindred Spirit .. 46.6 (5)
10. 200 Motels ... 46.25 (4)
11. MTCranium ... 46.2 (5)
12. Redsunset .... 42.0 (5)

RC28 if you are out there and have changed your username as of the May forecast, let me know, because you would then be back into this table (3 of 4 became 3 of 5 for RC 28), and we could be a dirty baker's dozen.

In general terms, the race has tightened up considerably this month. There was quite a nasty spill of several front runners although some of the leaders moved ahead slightly this month. And most of the trailing pack did better than the average of all forecasts so there is not as much daylight between the lead pack and the trailing group.

If anyone has any concerns about scoring, feel free to PM me, nothing here is carved in stone (paypal options exist, of course).

M.T. Cranium

Here we go with the June scores. As reported in the June thread ...

are the actual results for June according to the met.ie Monthly Weather Summary.

Mean temp (average of highest and lowest) 14.6 C

highest of month 27.5 C (2nd, Birr and Claremorris)

lowest of month 3.4 C (Birr)

sunshine was much above normal almost everywhere, the average for eight stations was 147% (and considering that the lowest two were Dublin and Casement which are close together, it was probably more like 150%)

rainfall was variable around normal, with a trend of dry in the west to wet in the east. A lot of the rain fell on the 6th. The average for 12 stations was 103% of normal with quite a scatter.


Scores for our contestants then are as follows, based on maximum values of
(30,25,25,10,10) for the five questions. As usual, it's a point off for every error of 0.1 C, first three questions, and the penalty points for the bonus questions are rounded off for every 5% out. Oddly, sunshine at 147% attracted closer guesses than rainfall at 103% ... go figure.

KS had a five point penalty this time because he combined a score over 60 with lateness (entered on 2nd). I should get a five point bonus for distance, but the judges are pretty strict.


JD ............ (23,25,24,01,07) ... 80
Docarch ..... (26,12,23,02,08) ... 71
Dasa29 ....... (26,20,19,05,00) ... 70
Danno ...... (23,24,10,07,05) ... 69
Kindredspirit ..... (29,20,11,10,03) ... 73-5 ... 68
Nacho Libre .. (27,22,00,02,06) ... 57
200 Motels ... (26,13,08,00,04) ... 51
M.T. Cranium ... (25,12,05,01,08) ... 51
Nilhg ...... (22,19,00,03,06) ... 50
Hellboy99 ... (02,13,16,02,04) ... 37
Redsunset .... (14,00,09,06,07) ... 36
Strasser ...... (22,05,00,00,06) ... 33

Well, I shall post these and work on the cumulative scoring later on, look for that on Thursday some time. Well done to quite a few people this month, JD almost uncanny except for the sunshine, and quite a high score at 80.

M.T. Cranium

Now, by the miracle of beer-assisted mathematics, I present for your amazement and amusement the cumulative scores through June ...
1. Dasa 29 ...... 60.0 (6)
2. JD .......... 58.6 (5)
3. Nilhg ..... 58.2 (6)
4. Danno .... 57.0 (6)
5. Docarch ... 54.3 (6)
6. Trogdor ... 54.2 (5)
7. Nacho Libre ... 53.8 (6)
8. Strasser ... 51.5 (6)
9. Kindred Spirit .. 50.2 (6)
10. ** Hellboy99... 50.0 (4)
11. 200 Motels ... 47.2 (5)
12. MTCranium ... 47.0 (6)
13. Redsunset .... 41.0 (6)

** Hellboy99, you have averaged 50 for 4, if you were the same entrant as Hellboy earlier in the year. Let me know if you hit January as any other name than these. I will update you in the tables next month if I get a January score.

---

A little movement at the front of the pack but this remains a very competitive race half-way through ... congrats to all except MTC who should have known better.

M.T. Cranium

Now is the part of Boards.ie where we score ...

for July ... see the July thread itself for more about the relevant quiz answers ... (14.8 C, 22.6 C, 5.4 C, 1.5 mm, 7.6 hrs, 19.1 C).

The max for the month, 22.6 C was so low that scores fell below the scoring criteria and so I have invoked the mercy rule and awarded the closest guess (Danno) 20 and scored down from there giving 15 and 10 points to second and third. The bonus question for temp on the 12th, I gave a few extra second and third place (meagre) points. This is the order of finish in July:


Kindred Spirit ... (28+10+ 09 +08+09+00) = 64
Danno ....... (21+20+05+10+05+02) = 63
Strasser ..... (20+00+17+10+08+03) = 58
jd ............. (25+00+15+08+09+00) = 57
nacho libre ... (21+00+15+10+10+00) = 56
nilhg ........ (21+15+02+09+05+01) = 53
dasa29 ....... (13+00+18+06+09+00) = 46
hellboy99 ... (00+00+24+08+07+00) = 39
DOCARCH .... (16+00+10+08+02+01) = 37
M.T. Cranium ... (14+00 +05+08+01+00) = 28
200motels .... (11+00+00+08+01+00) = 20

Congrats to KS and Danno for leading the way through the gloom in July.

New cumulative scores to follow in the next post.

M.T. Cranium

Here are the updated cumulative scores. Anyone with at least five out of seven entries is listed.

1. JD .......... 58.3 (6)
2. Dasa 29 ...... 58.0 (7)
3. Danno .... 57.9 (7)
4. Nilhg ..... 57.4 (7)
5. Trogdor ... 54.2 (5)
6. Nacho Libre ... 53.8 (7)
7. Strasser ... 52.4 (7)
8. Kindred Spirit .. 52.1 (7)
9. Docarch ... 51.9 (7)
10. Hellboy99... 47.8 (5)
11. MTCranium ... 44.3 (7)
12. 200 Motels ... 42.7 (6)
13. Redsunset .... 41.0 (6)

Quite a tight lead pack, with slight changes in position in July.

The chase pack continues to fall back except for KS who moved up nicely.

Congrats to all who had a go in July.

M.T. Cranium

August 2009 scores follow ...

(the first three are scored the usual way, and the bonus points, after reviewing the range of guesses, I deducted a point for wind speed errors of 5 knots etc, and for pressure errors of 2 mbs etc ... just to have scores that average out near the usual).

Danno ...... (29,24,18,10,09) ... 90
pauldry ..... (20,16,20,09,10) ... 75
hellboy99 .... (16,22,20,07,09) ... 74
nacho libre ... (30,22,04,10,08) ... 74
kindredspirit .. (29,00,11,06,10) ... 56
DOCARCH .... (27,00,09,10,08) ... 54
dasa29 ...... (27,05,00,09,09) ... 50
M.T. Cranium .... (20,00,11,09,05) ... 45
200motels .... (02,00,24,09,07) ... 42
jd ............. (07,00,20,08,07) ... 42
nilhg ........ (17,00,13,07,04) ... 41
Welsh Wizard .. (06,00,17,07,07) ... 37

Congrats to Danno for an outstanding effort, and new man pauldry who more or less matched hellboy99 and nacho libre for some really good scoring too.

Updated cumulative scoring in a while ...

M.T. Cranium

Updated cumulative scoring through August, with number of months entered in brackets. Newbies, I will attempt to score you in this at year end if you would like to keep competing.

1. Danno .... 61.9 (8)
2. Dasa 29 ...... 57.0 (8)
3. Nacho Libre ... 56.4 (8)
4. JD .......... 56.0 (7)
5. Nilhg ..... 55.4 (8)
6. Trogdor ... 54.2 (5)
7. Kindred Spirit .. 52.6 (8)
8. Strasser ... 52.4 (7)
9. Hellboy99... 52.2 (6)
10. Docarch ... 52.1 (8)
11. MTCranium ... 44.4 (8)
12. 200 Motels ... 42.6 (7)
13. Redsunset .... 41.0 (6)

Once again, congrats to Danno for moving up to first this month. But the pack remains quite close, check in again at the end of September.

M.T. Cranium

Scores for September ... the results are based on these correct values :

(1) 13.1 C

(2) 21.9 C

(3) 2.0 C

(4) 54% of normal rainfall

(5) 115% of normal sunshine

Because all contestants were well above the 54% mark for rainfall, I widened the error categories from the usual 5% to 8% error per point deduction; that gave us a few moderately high scores at least. Otherwise, the scoring went by the usual rules.

Strasser .... (23,21,20,03,06) ... 73
Hellboy99 ....... (27,12,20,05,05) ... 69
Danno ....... (30,00,19,07,09) ... 65
jd ............ (29,00,24,04,07) ... 64
nacho libre .... (23,08,21,05,05) ... 62
Kindred Spirit ... (27,05,15,05,09) ... 61
DOCARCH ...... (29,01,19,03,07) ... 59
Joe Public ..... (17,00,24,08,07) ... 56
dasa29 ....... (24,14,10,02,04) ... 54
M.T. Cranium ....(24,16,04,03,05) ... 52
200motels ..... (15,08,09,03,05) ... 40
nilhg ........ (22,00,00,07,09) ... 38

Congrats to Strasser and Hellboy99 for their top showing this month. I will update the cumulative scoring next, should be posted soon.

M.T. Cranium

The updated standings are posted below. Joepublic, I will put you into this table in the final results after December if you hang in with us.

1. Danno .... 62.2 (9)
2. Nacho Libre ... 57.0 (9)
2. JD .......... 57.0 (8)
4. Dasa 29 ...... 56.7 (9)
5. Strasser ... 55.0 (8)
6. Hellboy99... 54.6 (7)
7. Trogdor ... 54.2 (5)
8. Kindred Spirit .. 53.7 (9)
9. Nilhg ..... 53.4 (9)
10. Docarch ... 52.9 (9)
11. MTCranium ... 45.2 (9)
12. 200 Motels ... 42.3 (8)
13. Redsunset .... 41.0 (6)

A little movement in the pack this month, with Danno still well clear as we hit the turn for home ... hope you're all enjoying this close contest, and thanks for playing (the monthly average temps have been quite good for most of the year, really, Met Eireann should look into hiring some of you, or did they already? :cool: )

M.T. Cranium

Scores for October 2009. The interval for the frost date was one point per day, and Mullingar got the bonus, but I gave 2 pts for Birr which was missing from the data and was probably below 0.0 as well. For the waves forecast, I used 0.4m as the interval for scoring, and the bonus points went to those closest to the 3rd, with a point for those who were close to the 20th, a nearly equal peak.

I will incorporate these into the annual competition scoring race next.

jd ............ (22,21,20,00,09) ... 72
Strasser ..... (17,24,21,02,03) ... 67
nacho libre ... (18,15,20,02,10) ... 65
Joe Public .....(17,25,11,02,09) ... 64
kindredspirit .. (23,17,22,00,02) ... 64
DOCARCH .... (24,10,09,10,08) ... 61
hellboy99 .... (24,23,00,03,07) ... 57
dasa29 .......(12,13,14,11,06) ... 56
Danno .......(16,08,18,04,09) ... 55
nilhg ....... (21,17,00,00,06) ... 44
M.T. Cranium .. (22,00,12,02,04) ... 42

Danno

Cheers MTC, a big drop this month from myself.

M.T. Cranium

Updated cumulative scoring ... I have deleted a couple of entrants who have not been active since June and are now behind the 8 of 12 minimum pace for the annual "championship."

1. Danno .... 61.5 (10)
2. JD .......... 58.7 (9)
3. Nacho Libre ... 57.8 (10)
4. Dasa 29 ...... 56.6 (10)
5. Strasser ... 56.3 (9)
6. Hellboy99... 54.9 (8)
7. Kindred Spirit .. 54.7 (10)
8. Docarch ... 53.7 (10)
9. Nilhg ..... 52.5 (10)
10. MTCranium ... 44.9 (10)
11. 200 Motels ... 42.3 (8)

So, congrats to JD who finished in top spot in October and moved up a little to close in on front-runner Danno.

Joe Public (who does not appear in the annual race) is doing quite well with an average of 60 for his first two forecasts.

M.T. Cranium

Scores for November (see the Nov thread for the correct answers) ... scoring for the snowfall question is harsh, you get ten points for saying no snow, and zero for anything else. For the temp at Gurteen on the 14th, it's ten points minus a point for every half-C deg error.

There was some extraordinary scoring this month, three in the range 85-90.

Congrats to Strasser, Nilhg and Dasa29 for leading the way (I am back in the fog somewhere).

Strasser ...... (29,21,20,10,10) ... 90
nilhg ........ (26,24,25,10,02) ... 87
dasa29 ....... (24,20,24,10,07) ... 85
Nacho libre ...... (23,21,20,10,03) ... 77
Joe Public ...... (26,16,24,00,05) ... 71
200motels ..... (22,12,21,10,06) ... 71
DOCARCH ...... (26,19,17,00,06) ... 68
kindredspirit ... (23,05,21,10,06) ... 65
jd ............... (27,06,16,00,07) ... 56
Danno ......... (22,19,15,00,00) ... 56
hellboy99 ...... (29,01,19,00,04) ... 53
M.T. Cranium .... (24,00,10,00,07) ... 41

This will no doubt tighten up the annual race considerably, stay tuned as I am working on that next.

M.T. Cranium

This may look a little confusing, I have added some features partly for my own benefit (will take less work to calculate the final standings next month).

What you see below is the present state of the annual competition, showing rank, the rank previous month, contestant, total score, number of months, and average score per month. As you know, we go only by average score per month, but the minimum for that is nine months. Basically, most of our regulars have not missed since joining up. If Joe Public had entered earlier he might be among the leaders for sure, his average after three tries being 63.7.

1. (1.) Danno .......... 671 (11) ... 61.0
2. (5.) Strasser ....... 597 (10) ... 59.7
3. (3.) Nacho Libre ... 655 (11) ... 59.5
4. (4.) Dasa 29 ........ 651 (11) ... 59.2
5. (2.) JD ............... 584 (10) ... 58.4
6. (7.) Kindred Spirit .. 612 (11) ... 55.6
6. (9.) Nilhg ............. 612 (11) ... 55.6
8. (8.) Docarch ........ 605 (11) ... 55.0
9. (6.) Hellboy99........ 492 (9) ... 54.7
10 (11) 200 Motels ..... 409 (9) ... 45.4
11 (10) MTCranium .... 490 (11) ... 44.5

Looks like Danno holds on to his precarious lead as his nearest challengers from previous table failed to make moves on him, but some of the chase pack moved up considerably to apply the pressure. With all the forecasts in for December, we all await our fate ... although mine is fairly obvious (relegation, won't say where).

Joe Public

Thanks for the vote of confidence M.T.

Danno

Cheers MTC, hopefully I can hang on in there and bring some sort of All Ireland back to Laois!!!

M.T. Cranium

Scores for DECEMBER 2009
_________________________

As mentioned over in the December thread, the correct answers for the various questions are:

(1) mean temp 4.1 C

(2) max temp 13.1 C

(3) min temp -10.0 C

(4) Dublin temps 25th ... 4.5, -6.6 C.

(5) highest wind speed 16th = 35 kts


bonus = yes snow reported 24th and 25th (in a few spots)

So, on to the scoring for the month. The minimum of -10.0 was so far below the range of guesses in most cases that I had to invoke the mercy rule for scoring, basically the closest guess got 20/25, the second closest 15 and others were given 10 down to 1 point in rank order.

Scores for the wind question are from a max of 10, losing one per 5 kt error.

Scores for the Dublin Christmas temps are from rank order, 10 for closest guess and then 9, 8, 7 etc for next closest. This was determined by total errors in degrees for max and min, added together. The bonus, you either got three points or not.

Strasser ..... (15,14,08,00,10,00) ... 47
M.T. Cranium ... (20,23,15,09,05,03) ... 75
Kerry1960 .... (23,20,06,02,08,00) ... 59
hellboy99 .... (19,21,10,07,06,03) ... 66
jd ......... (18,24,09,06,09,03) ... 69
dasa29 ..... (21,19,05,05,08,03) ... 61
Joe Public ... (05,22,02,00,09,00) ... 38
kindredspirit .... (13,16,05,04,08,00) ... 46
DOCARCH .... (02,22,01,00,06,00) ... 31
200motels .... (03,21,00,08,08,03) ... 43
nilhg ...... (19,08,07,00,06,00) ... 40
paddybar .... (00,16,05,01,03,00) ... 25
Danno .... (14,23,20,10,10,03) ... 80
Nacho libre ... (18,24,00,03,08,00) ... 53

Well, as you can see, Danno cleaned up (again) and would have had an even bigger margin if I had scored the mins for the month the normal way, since he would have then had almost the only points in that category, as he managed to guess below the actual value reached but not by much. My second-place guess would have been worth one point. If this had affected the annual outcome I might have gone with straight points.

I'm sure this will give Danno the win for the year, but I will work on those figures next.

Thanks for joining in, Kerry 1960 and Paddybar. In the first case, a good first attempt. For Paddybar, I suspect that his monthly forecast may have been for average max in which case the score would have been a bit higher, anyway, everyone catches on to the strategy after a month or two, so hang in there if you're playing in 2010.

M.T. Cranium

Final results for 2009
____________________________

These are the cumulative scores for all qualifying contest participants. I have included Joe Public (without ranking his finish) who entered four of the last contests just to show folks where he stands in the pack, although for a real comparison you'd have to factor in the average scores for those months he entered.

Just a reminder, the numbers here signify rank order, rank previous month, total score, number of months entered, average for those months.

1. (1.) Danno .......... 751 (12) ... 62.6
2. (5.) JD ............... 653 (11) ... 59.4
3. (4.) Dasa 29 ........ 712 (12) ... 59.3
4. (3.) Nacho Libre ... 708 (12) ... 59.0
5. (2.) Strasser ....... 644 (11) ... 58.5
** ** Joe Public ...... 229 (4) ... 57.3
6. (9.) Hellboy99........ 558 (10) ... 55.8
7. (6.) Kindred Spirit .. 658 (12) ... 54.8
8. (6.) Nilhg ............. 652 (12) ... 54.3
9. (8.) Docarch ........ 636 (12) ... 53.0
10 (11) MTCranium .... 565 (12) ... 47.1
10 (10) 200 Motels ..... 444 (10) ... 44.4

First of all, congratulations to Danno on a well-deserved win for the year, coming on strong in the tough final month and widening his lead over the chase pack. In that pack, plenty of last minute movement, with JD sprinting ahead to finish overall second by a slight margin over Dasa29 in third place. Nacho libre and Strasser were unlucky to finish just out of the "medals" -- but in scientific terms, these forecasters cannot really be separated with scores this close.

I believe that most of the other participants were improving towards the second half of the year, so I look forward to an even closer race in 2010, especially given the larger field of entrants that we seem to have for January.

Once again, congratulations to Danno for winning the 2009 contest.