The A/R Off Topic Thread

mithril

Last post from me on this. I am conscious that this is too off topic to be of interest to most on the ART forum.

I think you are drawing too strong a conclusion on a limited body of evidence.
A low scoring ball game such as soccer is far more likely to produce apparently unlikely results than in athletics where you can predict the outcome with a great deal of accuracy from the PB of the athletes and current form.
How do you predict in advance Geoff Hurst, a very ordinary player, scoring a hat-trick in the final in 1966 which is completely at variance with anything else he achieved in his career. Or Zidane , getting sending off in the last world cup final which had a huge influence on the outcome? Or Ronaldo having an apparent nervous breakdown on the morning of the WC final?
In any one game, referring error, own goals, uncharacteristic defensive errors, decide the outcome more frequently than individual brilliance or the overall quality of the two teams.
In a long series of games such as the premier league season , the strongest , highest quality squad will win but in an individual games or short knock-out series , blind chance has a big effect.
I have a background in mathematical modelling but you cannot apply a prediction model to football the same way as you can, quite accurately to athletics where other than rare occurrences such as athletes tripping up, the number of factors is small and easy to estimate. There are too many events occurring which combine in a very complex fashion to decide the outcome. How often do Giles and Dunphy accurately predict the outcome of the game? Compare that with the success rate of knowledgeable analysts at the Olympics.
Last night, Diego Forlan hit the bar in the dying moment of the game when this would have been an equalising goal. Why did he miss? The short-hand is to say he was unlucky.
More precisely, his level of skill, fatigue , the type of ball used , the positioning of the goal-keeper, the wind direction, the barometric pressure all combined to land the ball a few inches off target so it hit the goal post rather than under it. An average game has hundreds of similar, unpredictable events.

England were inferior on the night against Germany but still managed to score two legitimate goals that should have equalised the tie but for refereeing error. Based on what I have seen in the Champions League, there is very little difference in the quality of the players between the two teams.

On previous history between the sides, England were denied on two occasions getting to the WC final (1990) and EC final (1996) on penalties and won in 5-1 in 2001. I don't think you can make categoric statements about the inferiority of their style of play. If you miss out on a final through penalties,I regard it as just unlucky.

Greece failed to qualify for the next World Cup and never made an impression in a subsequent tournament. The players were predominantly drawn from the English lower leagues and very few of them went on to better things later. I regard their winning of the EC as evidence that football results are of their nature very unpredictable. I don’t attach any more significance to it than I do to Paul the Octopus uncanny ability to predict the correct result in this WC. I think this is due to blind luck. If he predicts the results of the next EC as accurately, I will be inclined to consider whether he is in fact psychic but I don’t think this will happen. Given an almost infinite set of events, the only thing certain is that some apparently very unlikely occurrences will happen. Once you have the characteristic of repeatability, either from Paul or Greece, then it stops being an outlier and you can start drawing a conclusion from it.

Woddle

Come on the dutch, 2-1

RacoonQueen

4 packs of Lucozade sport are on sale in Tesco for 2 euro. Stocked up on them today. Bargain considering it's usually at least 2 yoyos for one bottle.

rainbow kirby

RacoonQueen wrote: »

4 packs of Lucozade sport are on sale in Tesco for 2 euro. Stocked up on them today. Bargain considering it's usually at least 2 yoyos for one bottle.

Bought those last week and my little sister keeps robbing them for football training :mad:

rovers_runner

So RTE do still invest in comedy, some knacker from ballyfermot was just talking to a virgin....

Pisco Sour

So just a week to go until the European Athletics Championships and it doesn't seem to be capturing the imagination of the Irish public.

I'll give a specific example.

The other day when I told somebody I was going to Barcelona for a few days...

Other person: Oh cool, why are you heading to Barcelona?
Me: I'm heading over for the European Athletics Championships
Other person: Oh nice, are you competing?

:eek::eek:

donothoponpop

mithril wrote: »

I think you are drawing too strong a conclusion on a limited body of evidence.

Best post I've seen yet on the off-topic thread. Well done Mithril: remove emotion from a lot of soccer (or sport) talk, and introduce analysis, suddenly larger and clearer factors appear...

The day you get the lad in the pub debating the squeeze theorem after six pints, instead of footie, is the day your sort take over the world. Based on the current Irish squad, I have a lot of hope for you on this:D

Krusty_Clown

donothoponpop wrote: »

Best post I've seen yet on the off-topic thread. Well done Mithril: remove emotion from a lot of soccer (or sport) talk, and introduce analysis, suddenly larger and clearer factors appear...

The day you get the lad in the pub debating the squeeze theorem after six pints, instead of footie, is the day your sort take over the world. Based on the current Irish squad, I have a lot of hope for you on this:D

Party's over. Better clean up the cuss-words, and put our clothes back on. Donothoponpop is back in town.

donothoponpop

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

Party's over. Better clean up the cuss-words, and put our clothes back on. Donothoponpop is back in town.

Just got internet, so not back for a couple of days yet. But, filled to the gills as I am with pate and Bordeaux, please feel free to cuss for a while yet.

Also, male urination in public is now AOK, as is female nudity on Normandy beaches. Red wine is the prescribed hydration method from breakfast, and all stinks can be covered up by liberal splashes of cologne. Ze problem, apparently, is le'Esats Unis, Phoo! Apart from that, this place seems to work better without Mods:D

ManFromAtlantis

what the hell happened to the kings voice in the Tudors last night ?

bit of a joke.

pity was good till that.

tunguska

Went to see Inception on monday night and wow, what a film. Amazing stuff altogether. Having endured some serious crap in the cinema this last while(Get him to the Greek, The hangover, The wolfman, Iron Man II.......and on and on)its such a relief to watch something thats so well made. I thought the Dark Knight was a mess but I dont blame Christopher nolan for that, his hands were tied by having to make a franchise film. I thought the Prestige was a bit of a masterpiece but Inception makes that movie look like a student film.
Its really entertaining but its also a work of art, some great stuff going on throughout. The acting is top aswell(Tom Hardy steals the film from Dicaprio).
What a film.

Daithi BC

My winter barley is now down to 22% moisture. Only another 4 days to wait until the combine can roll.

ManFromAtlantis

Daithi BC wrote: »

My winter barley is now down to 22% moisture. Only another 4 days to wait until the combine can roll.

cool.

BeepBeep67

Daithi BC wrote: »

My winter barley is now down to 22% moisture. Only another 4 days to wait until the combine can roll.

Some cross training for you so!

MarieC

finishing up at work next week. Have only one task left on my to-do list before I go but my God there is zero motivation or interest to get it done. So not bovvered.

Daithi BC

BeepBeep67 wrote: »

Some cross training for you so!

Currently getting the mice out of the electrics - it's good for the flexibility!

--amadeus--

Daithi BC wrote: »

My winter barley is now down to 22% moisture. Only another 4 days to wait until the combine can roll.

robinph

Saw them live a few weeks back, sorry only a crappy picture to "prove" it with me at the time:



It was far too busy in the tent to get any closer too.

racheljev

Aw thanks a million lads, that stupid song is stuck in my head now.... Ah, get it out!!!

robinph

Here's their latest single for your enjoyment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PLE3IjTRb8

...and not a single mention of a combine harvester or apple based alcoholic beverage anywhere. :eek:

tunguska

The Beast himself at yesterdays monster stage.........




Apparently it was some sort of charity gig where kelly climbed Tourmalet on a bike from 1910. If I didnt think he was hard as nails already I sure do now.
Although one of the lads over on the cycling forum told a great story about the time Sean kelly asked his(even harder than nails)manager could he take a holiday. The managers response: what? A holiday? Have you gone soft or something. The last time I took a holiday it was to ride the 1948 Tour De france..........The funny thing about it was he wasnt even joking.

gerard65

Got the bloody flu. I thought earlier in the week it was the effects of two races last weekend but now I have the same symptoms thats doing the rounds. Means I'm out of Sundays 10k and most likely miss a mile race next Wednesday, both PB potential.:(

tunguska

gerard65 wrote: »

Got the bloody flu. I thought earlier in the week it was the effects of two races last weekend but now I have the same symptoms thats doing the rounds. Means I'm out of Sundays 10k and most likely miss a mile race next Wednesday, both PB potential.:(

Thats a pisser Ger, sorry to hear that. Although you might be ok for the mile next wednesday.

gerard65

tunguska wrote: »

Thats a pisser Ger, sorry to hear that. Although you might be ok for the mile next wednesday.

I now know three people who have it, same symptoms, without going into detail, all I'll say is stock up on tiolet paper:o

littlebug

Had to get someone to jump start the car as the battery was flat. Got it sorted with some people going way beyond the call of duty to help. I then drove home and left the lights on and ran the battery flat again Now I have to figure out how to get it sorted in the morning without involving the same people

BeepBeep67

littlebug wrote: »

Had to get someone to jump start the car as the battery was flat. Got it sorted with some people going way beyond the call of duty to help. I then drove home and left the lights on and ran the battery flat again Now I have to figure out how to get it sorted in the morning without involving the same people

Park on a hill - I used to have a Ford Escort with a dodgy starting motor - let's say I carried a hammer in the boot and was very selective where I parked!

BeepBeep67

tunguska wrote: »

The Beast himself at yesterdays monster stage.........




Apparently it was some sort of charity gig where kelly climbed Tourmalet on a bike from 1910. If I didnt think he was hard as nails already I sure do now.
Although one of the lads over on the cycling forum told a great story about the time Sean kelly asked his(even harder than nails)manager could he take a holiday. The managers response: what? A holiday? Have you gone soft or something. The last time I took a holiday it was to ride the 1948 Tour De france..........The funny thing about it was he wasnt even joking.

An original Fixie!

littlebug

BeepBeep67 wrote: »

Park on a hill - I used to have a Ford Escort with a dodgy starting motor - let's say I carried a hammer in the boot and was very selective where I parked!

I am parked on a hill... the wrong way! I have to reverse uphill out the driveway. I also have to pick Mr Bug up at 11. I'll just have to bite the bullet and knock on someones door:o I'll leave it a couple of hours yet. Selective parking in future!

pgmcpq

...whats the driving time from Shannon to Dublin these days ? ( Just been asked and I guessed at 3 hours)

menoscemo

pgmcpq wrote: »

...whats the driving time from Shannon to Dublin these days ? ( Just been asked and I guessed at 3 hours)

That's abour right I think.