Red C poll - FF up, Labour down

mike65

Some interesting numbers in this mornings poll, FF and Labour "swap" 5% for a 10% swing, FG up 1 and SF down 4. It looks like no matter how bad things are the left are not really able to capitalise - or FG.

FG 31 +1
FF 28 +5
Lab 17 -5
Greens 7 +1
SF 7 -4
Indies 10 +2

I guess the FF party beano/Paddy day glad-handing may have helped the governments numbers.

The poll also showed that 66% of voters said they did not have confidence in the Government to manage the public finances out of the downturn.

However, just 30% think Fine Gael and Labour could do any better, while 40% say they would not do better and 30% had no opinion

ParkRunner

mike65 wrote: »

Some interesting numbers in this mornings poll, FF and Labour "swap" 5% for a 10% swing, FG up 1 and SF down 4. It looks like no matter how bad things are the left are not really able to capitalise - or FG.

FG 31 +1
FF 28 +5
Lab 17 -5
Greens 7 +1
SF 7 -4
Indies 10 +2

I guess the FF party beano/Paddy day glad-handing may have helped the governments numbers.

The only positive I can see from that poll is that Independents are +2. 1 in 3.5 support for FF

peasant

by the by ...it's a red sea poll

as in Moses parting the waters and all that




and it looks like the naked Biffo bought some "awww the poor fella" - sympathy votes :rolleyes:

My priority for the next election is to vote for the party that will scale back spending to equate with income.
So back to 2005 levels.

I don't see any party wishing to do that under the wrath of David Begg et al so it's a lost cause.

I don't see any humungous changes coming with an FG/Labour government either.

The best thing that could happen is the IMF comes in and we get the reality check of an outsourcing of spending controls that comes with that.

is_that_so

FF are a major party and one of the only options for government. They will always have a strong core support. It was inevitable that they would come back up. There have been very few gaffes or new scandals of late. No doubt there will be some relief at the bounce in FF. The big news story is the pain we will all have to take. All parties are in agreement on that, and have calmed down from the shouting matches we had earlier in the year. This would have mitigated some the anger vented at FF in earlier polls. That said FF are down 14% on their GE numbers.

Labour were always going to come back as well. Gilmore has been in strong in the last few months but Labour have been quiet mostly because they spent that time hitting the government every chance they got. The poll numbers do seem to be more of a personal vote for Gilmore and his profile. Labour's headache is finding new talent to run, as most of their TDs are over 50.

The Greens need to keep at that core of 7%-8% because so many of their TDs heavily depend on transfers. If they get below 5% they run the danger of being wiped out. SF are in trouble. They are now learning that the North doesn't count any more and they need to produce credible policies. They also need to look at the value of Adams. He has been integral to them over the years but his star is waning. Personally reckon he has become a serious liability, as every time he opens his mouth on our current difficulties, he's embarrassing.

nuttz

peasant wrote: »

by the by ...it's a red sea poll

as in Moses parting the waters and all that

ehhh, no it's not

ateam

I have a feeling that Joan Burton's appearance on Vincent Browne a couple of weeks ago had an impact on Labour's reduction in support.

dresden8

ateam wrote: »

I have a feeling that Joan Burton's appearance on Vincent Browne a couple of weeks ago had an impact on Labour's reduction in support.

I don't think that many people watch Vincent.

Mr.Micro

Wait for the budget on April 7, that should shake the numbers up a bit. The figures suggest that not enough pain has yet been felt by the electorate, or denial of the mess that FF have wreaked on the country, or maybe there is nothing that FF do will ever make a difference? Scary!

lostexpectation

by comparison to history ff are still down, i guess the promise of budget tackle the prob has relieved some people

dave-higgz

dresden8 wrote: »

I don't think that many people watch Vincent.

Well lets say 50,000 watch it. Everyone of them should have been appalled at Burton's weak performance on the show.

ateam

dave-higgz wrote: »

Well lets say 50,000 watch it. Everyone of them should have been appalled at Burton's weak performance on the show.

About 100,000 watch it, but I suppose the broader point I'm making is that Labour has been shown up recently, they're well able to criticise but unable to come up with any solutions.

Permabear

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nesf

mike65 wrote: »

I guess the FF party beano/Paddy day glad-handing may have helped the governments numbers.

Or Labour's lack of details is grating on a more cynical public. They probably got some kind of bump from their conference on the weekend and if they don't gain support after the mini-Budget they might as well find another profession.

ionix5891

well at least SF are down, theres always a silver lining

is_that_so

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Wait for the budget on April 7, that should shake the numbers up a bit. The figures suggest that not enough pain has yet been felt by the electorate, or denial of the mess that FF have wreaked on the country, or maybe there is nothing that FF do will ever make a difference? Scary!

I am not so sure the budget will hit them that badly. Today's press conference was a crafty piece of politics. As with all budgets they try to leak some of the bad that is to come. By using the master and not the apprentice(Lenihan) it had so much more gravitas. It also gives a clearer message that they are going to attempt to do this for the country, even though the next GE is most likely to be lost.

Meanwhile the Greens has become the absolute masters of spin. The way Ryan talked today you'd think they invented the idea of the UK-Ireland interconnector and that they alone recognised that it was a priority project. The Greens may indeed dump the lacklustre Gormley for Ryan by the time the next GE comes around.

10000maniacs

mike65 wrote: »

Lab 17 -5

This is what will be known as the Joan Burton effect. If she is not stopped she will have nagged the whole nation to death.:eek:

smallBiscuit

donegalfella wrote: »

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Sad but true, the question though is what to do about it, how to improve it, I have many idea's, none of which would wind you up in prison (assuming your not caught of course)

Legally, what can be done, it's pointless saying it here, your preaching to the converted, how can we make the general public aware of the utter incompetence of our ruling class?

mike65

nesf wrote: »

Or Labour's lack of details is grating on a more cynical public. They probably got some kind of bump from their conference on the weekend and if they don't gain support after the mini-Budget they might as well find another profession.

I agree, Labours "error" was to be so high profile they started to get shot at while turning out to not be very well armed.

brianthebard

If its just to do with Paddy's day then FF will slip back down over the next few weeks, and even moreso right after the budget.

Het-Field

The Poll is very interesting.

However, it should be qualified by one or two observations.

1.Fianna Fail's bounce has come directly from Labour. Donegalfella, has aptly articulated how FF and Labour are interchangable in terms of their policy viz social welfare etc. The same applies to their respective voters. Disillusioned FF will usually go Labour, and many soft Labour I know see a FF/Lab Coalition as the best option

2.FF's bounce has come on the back of a good month for the country. This was most relevant in terms of our sporting achievement. The soft Cowen-Obama coverage was also very useful to the party. FF were equally likely to get a bounce courtesy of their onvention. Ditto the Greens. Remember Gordon Brown enjoyed a decent bounce mid way through 2008, and he is now lagging so far behind, that there is virtually no chance of a Labour success in 2010 (when Brown will have to hold the election)

3.Labour have appallingly handled their recent surge. They have come up with no useful ideas, have been high on rhetoric, while none of has been useful. They deserve this punishment, and the drop reflects.

4.Fine Gael continue to hold a commanding 3 point lead, and their fluctuations have been relatively negligible. I can see them being the big winners at the loacls, and euros in June.

5.Neither Labour nor Fine Gael had their respective conventions by the time the study had closed. Both parties will get a bounce within the next few weeks courtesy of this. Equally FF willl have to deal with the fallout from the mini budget. In conjunction, I feel FF will probably fall to 25% in the next poll, while FG will gain 2 and Labour will gain the other point.

6.The Dail has not been in session as regularly, and as such, gaffs, and huge mistakes have not been as easy to identify ! Give it another month !

nesf

Het-Field wrote: »

1.Fianna Fail's bounce has come directly from Labour. Donegalfella, has aptly articulated how FF and Labour are interchangable in terms of their policy viz social welfare etc. The same applies to their respective voters. Disillusioned FF will usually go Labour, and many soft Labour I know see a FF/Lab Coalition as the best option

It's important to bear in mind that Labour's bounce appeared to come from ex-FF supporters. This could produce a trend up until June as people sway from one to the other and back again. It also makes this less shocking/surprising. All the while if FG can hold onto their present position, they'll do very nicely in June.

dave-higgz

What I don't get about these polls is that 25%-30% still support Fianna Fail but only around 15% of people actually support the government. That leaves 10% of the population who support Fianna Fail yet they don't like the government!!! Is this the type of informed decisions that people make at the ballot box???? :eek:

3DataModem

donegalfella wrote: »

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Good point.

dloob

dave-higgz wrote: »

What I don't get about these polls is that 25%-30% still support Fianna Fail but only around 15% of people actually support the government. That leaves 10% of the population who support Fianna Fail yet they don't like the government!!! Is this the type of informed decisions that people make at the ballot box???? :eek:

Ahh yes but their granddad fought the blueshirts in the civil war so they couldn't vote for anyone else. :rolleyes: