What would become of Sinn Fein in a United Ireland?

junder

Its not just the govvernment making these accusations its ex-republican prisoners like anthony McIntyre, no dounbt many of you will slag him of, but as an outsider looking in on the republican movement and hearing accustaions made by a republican ex-prisoner well what would you think

RedPlanet

junder wrote: »

Its not just the govvernment making these accusations its ex-republican prisoners like anthony McIntyre, no dounbt many of you will slag him of, but as an outsider looking in on the republican movement and hearing accustaions made by a republican ex-prisoner well what would you think

That he sounds like a disguntled old man?
Maybe he's playing to his audience of whom... dissident republicans?

K-9

RedPlanet wrote: »

That he sounds like a disguntled old man?
Maybe he's playing to his audience of whom... dissident republicans?

Could well be.

If I remember correctly the first Hunger Strike was called off against the prisoners wishes and they seem to be saying here, that the second was prolonged against their wishes.

RedPlanet

K-9 wrote: »

Could well be.

If I remember correctly the first Hunger Strike was called off against the prisoners wishes and they seem to be saying here, that the second was prolonged against their wishes.

No, they didn't organize the strike very well.
One of them was on the brink of death when HMG conceded the demands so they all stopped the strike.
Only, HMG played a childish game, and insteading of letting the prisoner's wear their own clothes, they supplied them with "civilian clothes", that looked patently ridiculous.

Shane-1

Can we add The Irish Times to the list of bastions of Unionist culture now? Bastions including the Beatles, Liverpool FC etc etc

junder

Shane-1 wrote: »

Can we add The Irish Times to the list of bastions of Unionist culture now? Bastions including the Beatles, Liverpool FC etc etc

Did you know liverpool FC was founded by orange men?

Shane-1

junder wrote: »

Did you know liverpool FC was founded by orange men?

Yup, and Everton by catholics, but you wouldnt call LFC part of orange culture though would you?

And of course all the loyalists support the wrong team in Scotland, in actuality Hearts are a more protestant loyalist team than Rangers. And of course also the nationalists also support the wrong team, with Hibs being far more Irish than Celtic.

Pandcoa

futurehope wrote: »

Well, if the circumstances you describe actually came about, I would suspect that the price of Unionist surrender (for that is what it would be), would only start at federalism. I can think of countless other concessions which would need to be made within a very short time period, but I won't go into that here. Your use of the word inevitable has a Marxist ring to it which I suspect would not apply in the situation you describe.

Well I can’t nor can anyone else estimate how much or in what time period concessions and negotiations have to be made, it will probably be a very drawn out process in my mind, it also depends on the mindset of the unionist people – most are a lot less hostile to the republic compared to just a few decades ago when a lot refused to even set foot across the border. I said inevitable because of the hypothetical situation I had just described, but I guess you just couldn’t resist having a go

Not at all. You see, I didn't say Nationalists will cease to be Nationalists, merely that a proportion of the specifically Catholic population will not gamble careers, mortgages and their lifestyles on the alter of a United Ireland. Also, Nationalists are already in their 'hell' and have become used to it, whereas you would be asking Unionists to go into 'hell', two very different propositions.

Okay, but I never considered religion to be an ultimate deciding factor of what you believed in, nor did I ever say all Catholics would vote nationalist nor all Protestants would vote unionist. I also think the whole “Ireland burning down in financial crisis” scenario is grossly overblown by pro unionists, sure there would be problems adjusting but there is hardly going to be an Armageddon that is enough to discourage nationalists in droves from rejoining

I'm afraid you are misunderstanding the difference between Catholics and Nationalists. Whilst it is true that most Catholics who actually vote, do so for SF and The SDLP, this does not mean that all these people would say yes to a United Ireland, a very different proposition involving huge personal risks, as opposed to putting a local Catholic into Stormount to represent their interests in a sectarian arena. In addition, 40% of Catholics did not even vote in the last assembly elections and whilst some of these will be militant Republicans, most wont be. These people will take great persuasion to turn their lives upside down in order to achieve Irish Unity - a cause for which many of them have little interest.

I never talked once about the catholic population since religion is not a deciding factor (for both sides), you did, I was talking about nationalists and you started saying that a lot of Nationalists would reconsider their views when faced with economic factors. Also you speculation is going a little far, where did you get this view? NILT I bet

The comparison you make is ludicrous. If Ireland North and South were full of Irish Nationalists then the comparison would stand, but they're not are they? Nor are they likely to become so.

Are you saying the majority of southerners do not wish for a united Ireland? How exactly is it different to Germany? What makes their mindset different to the people here? The people there had just as much if not more to lose by letting the poor east rejoin

It doesn't. What it does say is that it is at the discretion of The UK Secretary of State whether or not a border poll is even called. There is no requirement on said politician to call any border poll unless he thinks it will definitely pass. It's at his sole discretion.

So? You said it was unlikely that a simple majority would not be enough to propagate a return to a united Ireland? If a 50+1 result came about there is absolutely nothing no government can do to say no as the provisions of the GFA outline. And also believe me, if there was a big enough cry to the government (either Stormont or the people) then the sec of state doesn’t really have a rational choice to disobey that unless they wish to risk all hell to break loose.

The SDLP would have accepted any arrangement that produced power sharing. They were well aware that a United Ireland was beyond their grasp.

Wow, I dare you to say that to any SDLP member, they may be push overs compared to SF in negotiations but their ultimate goal is the same as republican, we are the one community. I heard one republican in the audience at a local cross party talk say that to a counciller one year and he completely lost it on him, they take serious personal offence to such talk. If they believe a united Ireland is beyond their grasp then I wonder why its on their website frontpage

As for SF, *insert generic sensationalist jibe*

:rolleyes: Never a boards.ie thread without one

futurehope

Pandcoa said:

Well I can’t nor can anyone else estimate how much or in what time period concessions and negotiations have to be made, it will probably be a very drawn out process in my mind, it also depends on the mindset of the unionist people – most are a lot less hostile to the republic compared to just a few decades ago when a lot refused to even set foot across the border. I said inevitable because of the hypothetical situation I had just described, but I guess you just couldn’t resist having a go

I don't know how far back you go yourself, but I can assure you Unionists visited The Republic long before 'the troubles' and indeed during it. As for hostility to The Republic falling, yes I'd agree with you there and indeed welcome the new relationship that has developed between what are two neighbouring nations at peace. But I think you need to ask yourself why that has happened. The Republic has ditched any territorial claims to Northern Ireland and The Provo campaign has been wound up. Unionists always said that this type of approach would reap strong dividends and it has. It would be very naive to confuse this new relationship with any weakening of Unionist resolve to remain part of The UK.

Okay, but I never considered religion to be an ultimate deciding factor of what you believed in, nor did I ever say all Catholics would vote nationalist nor all Protestants would vote unionist. I also think the whole “Ireland burning down in financial crisis” scenario is grossly overblown by pro unionists, sure there would be problems adjusting but there is hardly going to be an Armageddon that is enough to discourage nationalists in droves from rejoining

OK, let me explain your problem again. Taking the same survey as previously (yes I know it's only a survey, but there have been others presenting similar numbers):

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

Here are the figures for those wanting a United Ireland:

Catholics: 47% of Catholics
Protestants: 3% of Protestants
No Religion: 21% of those not religious (foreigners etc)

As you can see, almost no Protestants wish for a United Ireland, whilst about half of The Catholics want it. Those without religion are not material due to their small numbers (and in any case only 21% of them would welcome a United Ireland).

As a result, if there was a poll today, The United Ireland lobby would be lucky to achieve 25% of the vote. A massive rejection.

But it's worse than that (for Nationalism). As I said previously only 60% of Catholics and 60% of Protestants voted at the last assembly election. This leaves a floating 40%. The Protestants amongst these are more likely to vote in a border poll and it's safe to say they won't all be in favour of Irish Unity. As for The Catholics, well it's these people who will consider what they have to gain from Irish Unity. Many actually work for The UK state (PSNI, civil service, NHS, etc) and will take some persuading to gamble their careers on the alter of Irish Unity. This will apply whether or not The Republic is in recession.

Are you saying the majority of southerners do not wish for a united Ireland? How exactly is it different to Germany? What makes their mindset different to the people here? The people there had just as much if not more to lose by letting the poor east rejoin

No, that's not what I'm saying. What do the words East GERMANy and West GERMANy have in common? The word GERMAN. That's right, they were all German. They had a common ethnicity and naturally wanted to unite Germany, especially with their history. The ROI would be joining with fellow Nationalists from Ulster, but also looking to absorb a large number of people who see themselves as British, not Irish. A very different scenario.

So? You said it was unlikely that a simple majority would not be enough to propagate a return to a united Ireland? If a 50+1 result came about there is absolutely nothing no government can do to say no as the provisions of the GFA outline. And also believe me, if there was a big enough cry to the government (either Stormont or the people) then the sec of state doesn’t really have a rational choice to disobey that unless they wish to risk all hell to break loose.

First of all, how do you suggest The Secretary of State asseses whether or not 50%+1 of the population favours a United Ireland, given the fact 40% don't vote and you detest opinion polls? As for your comment about all hell breaking lose if Nationalists don't get there way - well I think you've rather shot your bolt on that one don't you? A thirty year campaign ending in a white flag.

The other problem you have is if a border poll was called and the turnout was low. You might find Irish Unity would be rejected on those grounds alone. The Belfast Agreement is quite vague on what is meant by majority you know (as on many other things - deliberately so, The UK Government wrote it after all).

Wow, I dare you to say that to any SDLP member, they may be push overs compared to SF in negotiations but their ultimate goal is the same as republican, we are the one community. I heard one republican in the audience at a local cross party talk say that to a counciller one year and he completely lost it on him, they take serious personal offence to such talk. If they believe a united Ireland is beyond their grasp then I wonder why its on their website frontpage

The SDLP are an ageing political party with an ageing electorate. SF is becoming The SDLP MKII. The process is irreversible. As for slogans on a web page, forgive me if I don't give them too much credence or any concern.

By the way, how big do you think The Catholic majority will get (if it appears at all), what with the Catholic birth rate on a southward trajectory (again irreversible)?

O'Coonassa

The Shinners have no advantage in there being a united Ireland because they'd lose their electorate in a flash. Their mandate, like that of the DUP etc is based on stirring sectarian sensibilities. In a united Ireland they'd loose the leverage to do so.

Joey the lips

O'Coonassa wrote: »

The Shinners have no advantage in there being a united Ireland because they'd lose their electorate in a flash. Their mandate, like that of the DUP etc is based on stirring sectarian sensibilities. In a united Ireland they'd loose the leverage to do so.

That is not the most sensable words I have heard. Is your experience on the matter based on research or just pure guess work???

Although not a strong socialist the one thing that I cannot deny is Sinn Fein have learned something which dublin politics has failed to grasp. ie. Without the support of the people on the ground you have nothing.

Where your arguement hits a brick wall is how do you explain Martin McGuinnesses condemnation of the RIRA and CIRA killings of late in the news.

Your comments are typical of the media created spin in ireland. " Well they are all killing each other so leave them to it" Stop reading the Irish times and start reading decent papers like the sunday business post or the Irish Examiner and you wil get a true image of who stirs sectarian violence.

Bottle_of_Smoke

randylonghorn wrote: »

I agree. Where would you see them coming to roost? I would have thought FF?

Yes, that would be a possibility, perhaps labour also though.

http://www.labour.ie/northernireland/

joey the lip wrote:

Where your arguement hits a brick wall is how do you explain Martin McGuinnesses condemnation of the RIRA and CIRA killings of late in the news.

Your comments are typical of the media created spin in ireland. " Well they are all killing each other so leave them to it" Stop reading the Irish times and start reading decent papers like the sunday business post or the Irish Examiner and you wil get a true image of who stirs sectarian violence.

He did actually say sectarian sensibilities not violence and there is a truth there. I know nationalists in NI who've said to me "I'd love to be able to vote on bread and butter issues but on the other hand I don't want nationalists to lose power"

That is pretty much sectarian sensibilities, its just not violent sectarianism

Joey the lips

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Yes, that would be a possibility, perhaps labour also though.

http://www.labour.ie/northernireland/



He did actually say sectarian sensibilities not violence and there is a truth there. I know nationalists in NI who've said to me "I'd love to be able to vote on bread and butter issues but on the other hand I don't want nationalists to lose power"

That is pretty much sectarian sensibilities, its just not violent sectarianism

Thats not what was totally implied and thats not want I only commented on. He implied Sinn Feins existance is pruley bacase of the sectarian senseibilities in Northern Ireland. Which is daft and complete nonsense. If that were the case they would hae disbanded along with the PD's instead their vote had grown.

This would also have led to a rise in the SDLP's vote but if you check any senses any gain the SDLP made has been lost lately due to their inaction on the ground and partially cause they have alligned themselves with the Fianna Fail party which was a mistake in my opinion.

Where as if nationalist really felt Sinn Fein did not support a political agenda they would have went with the SDLP.

By the way if we were still dealing with Ian Paisley and not peter robinson I would agree that being the case also with the DUP. But they have come a long way of late also

Fratton Fred

A united Ireland would mean Sinn Fein has to give up their holiday home in London. What other reason would they have for renting two houses there, they refuse to attend Westminster.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/08/sinn-fein-mps-expenses

pow wow

Their popularity on the new, united island (the hypothetical one that's the subject of the thread ) would potentially grow as they cease to be aligned with the issues of the North. I know a lot of people view them as being relatively extremist (more so to do with their historical allegiances than policy per se) - I'm sure if they got down and dirty with the bread and butter stuff their base would increase.

O'Coonassa

Joey the lips wrote: »

That is not the most sensable words I have heard. Is your experience on the matter based on research or just pure guess work???

Although not a strong socialist the one thing that I cannot deny is Sinn Fein have learned something which dublin politics has failed to grasp. ie. Without the support of the people on the ground you have nothing.

Where your arguement hits a brick wall is how do you explain Martin McGuinnesses condemnation of the RIRA and CIRA killings of late in the news.

Your comments are typical of the media created spin in ireland. " Well they are all killing each other so leave them to it" Stop reading the Irish times and start reading decent papers like the sunday business post or the Irish Examiner and you wil get a true image of who stirs sectarian violence.

I'm not sure you have taken me up correctly, what I am saying is based on observation and logic. The Shinner mandate stems from sectarian and tribal loyalties and concerns. These loyalties and concerns only exist because of the British occupation of the northeast. Once the British leave then those concerns leave with them. If the Shinners were truly a working class party then the support we see for them in the OSC would be repeated across Ireland. Clearly it isn't. Equally clear is the fact that they know this.

O'Coonassa

meanie boots wrote: »

Their popularity on the new, united island (the hypothetical one that's the subject of the thread ) would potentially grow as they cease to be aligned with the issues of the North. I know a lot of people view them as being relatively extremist (more so to do with their historical allegiances than policy per se) - I'm sure if they got down and dirty with the bread and butter stuff their base would increase.

But they've put huge amounts of time and money into trying to expand their base south of the border. If their bread and butter stuff was really that popular then people would have gone for it already I think.

partyguinness

You say that Sein Fein have minimal support..

They have more support that the Greens and the PDs put together and are only marginally behind Labour..and considering that the PDs and the Greens are in Gov (I am aware of the impending dissolution of the PDs) which maked it all very peculiar.

O'Coonassa

Let's face facts, the entire political class of Europe are losers. The turnout at elections in every country is dropping exponentially. There are more people who don't vote Ireland than are represented by Labour, the Shinners, the Greens etc put together.

Joey the lips

O'Coonassa wrote: »

I'm not sure you have taken me up correctly, what I am saying is based on observation and logic. The Shinner mandate stems from sectarian and tribal loyalties and concerns. These loyalties and concerns only exist because of the British occupation of the northeast. Once the British leave then those concerns leave with them. If the Shinners were truly a working class party then the support we see for them in the OSC would be repeated across Ireland. Clearly it isn't. Equally clear is the fact that they know this.

I still disagree. Sinn Fein has 2 main problems in my opinion which rather than be a stick to beat them with I think it should be a reason to elevate them
1.Sinn Fein reason to exist is a united socialist ireland. This is there politics. This is their mandate from the people. When sinn fein agreed to sit in the dail it did so cause its electorate asked it to. So on this front it has done all the electrate has asked it to.

2. The Voter. Sinn fein has 2 types of vote, Those who vote for it and those who dont. Its voters mainly come from working class areas, This is an area where it has a low turnout in voters. It does most of this work n these areas also. Sinn fein pumps all its energy to helping those who deserve it most and is rewarded by a low turn out in the electorate. Those voters in middle class to upper class areas dont vote for 2 reasons. 1.The middle class see's it as being affiliated with the IRA and because of national media associates the IRA with Illegal drug taking and Robberies. Name me one Drug dealer/IRA Man- None Name the IRA men convicted for the Northern Bank Robbery -None. This is widely posted in news papers but never retracted when shown to be wrong. So the intelligent middle class voter who does turn out will not vote sinn fein- This is factual. 2. Sinn Fein has made no bones about its plans to tax the wealthy and of course increase coperation tax in favour of home grown industries so nobody in the upper classes is going to vote for them

This will not change regardless of the 6 county occupation. In fact... What will happen WHEN a united ireland comes about is the middle class will realise that media spun so much around cause guaranteed it will spin it again when a united irelanbd comes that its vote will increase.

Where do I get this information.. From Sinn Fein No. I read the Irish Examiner and the Sunday Business post the last 2 remaining newspapers in this country not controlled. The only 2 newspapers that will agree with you one week but argue your points the next, The way the media should be.

ilkhanid

"Name the IRA men convicted for the Northern Bank Robbery -None."

None YET.They have one launderer of the cash in jail now,give them time.
And I'd have thought that being associated with characters who engage in acts like beating and stabbing people to death is far more significant for the "middle-classes" than drug-dealing.

Joey the lips

ilkhanid wrote: »

"Name the IRA men convicted for the Northern Bank Robbery -None."

None YET.They have one launderer of the cash in jail now,give them time.
And I'd have thought that being associated with characters who engage in acts like beating and stabbing people to death is far more significant for the "middle-classes" than drug-dealing.

Give them time Bull Sh1t. They wont cause as panorama showed on the BBC even though there was NO EVIDENCE linking the IRA to the event the british goverment and the Dup used it as an excuse to bring down the assembly. It was guilt by association. Simular to the birmingham 6 conviction for being irish

Now name any sinn fein man who beated and stabbed someone to death and of couse so its shown to be political name the event. You dont have to reply tonight, I will gladly wait till tuesday.

My point was its the tarnised reputation that the media spin has created that has effected the sinn fein vote as you will discover when you try to find someone.

Best of luck

ilkhanid

two names: Paul Quinn, Robert McCartney. Of course,no Sinn Fein would know anything about because they have nothing to do with a certain non-existent organization.

K-9

Joey the lips wrote: »

Now name any sinn fein man who beated and stabbed someone to death and of couse so its shown to be political name the event. You dont have to reply tonight, I will gladly wait till tuesday.

It's convenient when witnesses are intimidated and warned not to go to the PSNI.

I always laugh at the, how many SF members were convicted point, how recently did they recognise the PSNI and the British court systems?

Can't have it both ways lads.

You can't intimidate people to not report crimes and then say, sure what SF members were convcted.

Cue next line, prove their was intimidation.

It's only the Quinn and McCartney families who have been brave enough to go public with it recently. Intimidation tends to do that.

Joey the lips

ilkhanid wrote: »

two names: Paul Quinn, Robert McCartney. Of course,no Sinn Fein would know anything about because they have nothing to do with a certain non-existent organization.

again i ask you to read the question they are victums, I asked you to name Sinn Fein men who was convicted. Nobody has ever denied the existance of the IRA. Sinn Fein has never denied the existance of the IRA. As the poster that I questioned pointed out. Did you read the irish news on robert McCartney? I rec you do before you comment any more,

and at this point we have deviated from the united ireland cause. I was simply trying to point out we all believe the media but we never seem to question it...

I can wait on the names...:D

Joey the lips

K-9 wrote: »

It's convenient when witnesses are intimidated and warned not to go to the PSNI.

I always laugh at the, how many SF members were convicted point, how recently did they recognise the PSNI and the British court systems?

Can't have it both ways lads.

What???? British court system???? Have you read the topic? Cant have it both ways???? What????? Boys??? Are you talking to sinn fein or me??

K-9

Joey the lips wrote: »

What???? British court system???? Have you read the topic? Cant have it both ways???? What????? Boys??? Are you talking to sinn fein or me??

Read my post again, from a non SF point of view.

PS. I quoted you and directly replied to you. So I take it you read the topic when you posted?

Or is the 6 counties not part of Ireland. Totally confused seeing as you raised the question.

Joey the lips

K-9 wrote: »

Read my post again, from a non SF point of view.

PS. I quoted you and directly replied to you. So I take you read the topic when you posted?

I read it again it still makes no sense. Unless of course you refere to the fact that sinn fein are now involved in the police force???? This actually is a grey area cause they still have not got a clear mandate from their supporters on this.

Additionally I am not reading this with a sinn fein view point but i looking at it from the point of view of how i would if I were sinn fein as this is the title of the post,. But you have come into th post with a couple of lines going against mydefense of an earlier question. If you look at my lines and the defense I am applying them against all will be clear....

I take it we are finished on the names....:D

K-9

Joey the lips wrote: »

I read it again it still makes no sense. Unless of course you refere to the fact that sinn fein are now involved in the police force???? This actually is a grey area cause they still have not got a clear mandate from their supporters on this.

Oops, sssshhhhh, don't spread the truth.

Still, why point to SF convictions, if as you just pointed out, police support is a grey area. To have an effective law and order system you must have support. Come on, it isn't rocket science. If police support is a grey areas as you just admitted, why point to SF convictions in a grey area?

Joey the lips wrote:

Additionally I am not reading this with a sinn fein view point but i looking at it from the point of view of how i would if I were sinn fein as this is the title of the post,. But you have come into th post with a couple of lines going against mydefense of an earlier question. If you look at my lines and the defense I am applying them against all will be clear....

.

Right, just when you asked have I read the thread, I assumed you had when directly responding to you on THIS thread.

Joey the lips wrote:

I take it we are finished on the names....:D

LOL, What names? Suppose it's subjective.

ilkhanid

Let's see. If nobody from SF/IRA is convicted for something then they probably didn't do it...it could be anybody! Let's leave common sense out of it. Example: Nobody was ever convicted for the Kingsmills or Tullyvallen Orange hall massacres, so who could it have been....Opus Dei's militant wing, Young Fine Gael,the Girl Guides, the FBI,The General,The Wombles or the OPW?