She says buy, I say wait - who's right?

oceanclub

krugerrand wrote: »

A large negative influence was the lack of public confidence in the banking system. This might change as a result of the emergency budget.

Can you tell us exactly what part of the budget will make people more likely to buy houses? Is it the 5-10% reduction in salary (taking pension levies into account), or the knowledge that the government is now liable for €90 billion of banking debts?

P.

ntlbell

krugerrand wrote: »

I'm not foolish enough or pig-ignorant enough to allow myself to say "ok, i predict prices will change by x% in the next 12 months." It all depends on the location of the house along with other factors such as size, condition etc. Some houses will fare better than others. Prices have fallen so much already from the peak. A large negative influence was the lack of public confidence in the banking system. This might change as a result of the emergency budget. In any event, the banks will start lending in a concerted manner in the next 12 months. There's a good few first timers out there even right now who are loan approved and ready to buy.

But based on the information you have today; surely you can make an educated guess as to what you think will happen in the next 12 months?

people on this forum were predicting house falls over two years ago

they were laughed at, now it seems they were proved right people still come here normally a new person a month that claims they're VI's and are not telling the truth yet not one of them people have explained why and where they see it and why they see it

it's nothing to do with being pig headed it's making a prediction on the information you have before you

if you can show me some valid reasons why we might see some stablisation then i would love to hear it

if not why are you sitting here moaning about people who actually have an opinion and can back it up with sound reasoning?

oceanclub

krugerrand wrote: »

I'm not foolish enough or pig-ignorant enough to allow myself to say "ok, i predict prices will change by x% in the next 12 months."

No-one's asking for that, but it's strange to be so bullish when you won't offer even a vague reason why.

I mean, ball park figure, when do you see a "recovery" in house prices, as in, them recovering their peak value back in 2006? 1 year? 2? 5? 10?

P.

gurramok

krugerrand wrote: »

Obviously both have Vested Interests. On this forum, I've read many tirades by posters against what they call Vested Interests who they believe contributed to the rise in house prices. Yet the danger of these posts is that the very same poster is apparently either oblivious of or suspiciously silent about the fact that he himself holds a Vested Interest.

So, why not be honest and say: "Hi, I'm [insert your name here], I want house prices to come down and I have a Vested Interest in having lower house prices so that I can buy one cheaper. Therefore, to try and realise my Vested Interest I'm going to be excessively negative in my predictions for house prices in the hope that this will scare other purchasers and result in the prophesy becoming self fulfilling."

krugerrand wrote: »

I'm not foolish enough or pig-ignorant enough to allow myself to say "ok, i predict prices will change by x% in the next 12 months." It all depends on the location of the house along with other factors such as size, condition etc. Some houses will fare better than others. Prices have fallen so much already from the peak that there is value to be had. A large negative influence was the lack of public confidence in the banking system; this might change as a result of the emergency budget. In any event, the banks will start lending in a concerted manner in the next 12 months. There's a good few first timers out there even right now who are loan approved and ready to buy.

Its called economics. You nor I can talk down or talk up house prices. And at the moment its downwards, even in Inchicore.

Micky Dolenz

I say let her go man, don't beg her to stay.



EDIT: she said buy, not bye

oceanclub

gurramok wrote: »

Its called economics. You nor I can talk down or talk up house prices. And at the moment its downwards, even in Inchicore.

It's funny how it works. We're told that the growth in house prices in the last 12 years, when some individual years it was 30% per annum (when wages were increasing by only a fraction of that amount), was purely rational and based on sound principles. But when prices drop, well, that's just mass hysteria.

Despite the fact that for most of modern Western capitalist history, house prices increase by only a small amount, roughly in place with inflation, many Irish people have been fooled into thinking that double-digit growth every year is perfectly normal. So, when it doesn't happen, they need to look for a reason. Kruggerand's reason seems to be that some blokes on the internet are shouting about house prices, so much so that their influence has managed to overtake the combined weight of the newspaper media, estate agents, government ministers and vested economists.

P.

gurramok

Ok, the posters here have been soley responsible for house prices declining since 2006.

We talked it down so much that we influenced the entire population of 4 million people who visit this forum

Freddie59

krugerrand wrote: »

Right, then. You say you've come clean in declaring your Vested Interest. But is your Vested Interest influencing your predictions ? Are you being completely unbiased with regard to the extent of the negativity of any predictions you may have posted ?

You refer to "instant information". I'd refer a significant portion of the posts as "instant mis-information" designed to scare.

'Come clean'?? WTF? Yeah, I'm lurking here every day with an agenda to talk down the property market. Right.:rolleyes::D

It is instant information in terms of house prices. For example there are numerous differences between the prices charged for the same house by EAs. One house in Waterford is on at €290k with one EA....and €325k with another.:eek:

See where this is going? As I said, I want maximum value for minimum debt. I usually pass the four websites below onto anyone whom they may help.

www.thepropertypin.com
www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com
www.irishpropertywatch.com
www.irishhometruths.com

And as for my 'predictions'? Since we sold in November I correctly predicted what prices would fall to in the area in which we wish to buy.

While at the same time others have been advising that the market has 'bottomed out' and that 'vested interests' are 'talking down' the Property market:rolleyes: (FFS just think about the sheer stupidity of that suggestion for a minute).

The law of supply and demand will call the bottom of the market. Nothing else. People like me will continue to observe, learn, and benefit from what goes on around us.

Amazingly, no-one had a problem when the market was being talked UP, with young couples and families nailed to the mortgage cross for 40 years in some cases.

Freddie59

cls wrote: »

Those with common sense do not take their advice from the internet!! Those with common sense realise that the internet is full of lies, ignorance and bullsh!t. A girl in work told me she changed her childs medication, which was prescribed by a real life doctor, based on "advice" from the internet :eek:

Yeah. All those tumbling prices on the EA websites are purely for comic amusement then.;):D

Freddie59

krugerrand wrote: »

I'm not foolish enough or pig-ignorant enough to allow myself to say "ok, i predict prices will change by x% in the next 12 months." It all depends on the location of the house along with other factors such as size, condition etc. Some houses will fare better than others. Prices have fallen so much already from the peak that there is value to be had. A large negative influence was the lack of public confidence in the banking system; this might change as a result of the emergency budget. In any event, the banks will start lending in a concerted manner in the next 12 months. There's a good few first timers out there even right now who are loan approved and ready to buy.

And who have watched their peers being screwed in the past 3 to 4 years. And who are determined not to let it happen to them. And good for them.

'Foolish enough'. 'Pig ignorant'. A strange choice of words to describe people who are being wise with their money. Had the Governmnet/Banks and their cronies done likewise we'd all be sitting pretty now.

By the way, are you involved in the property sector by any chance?

Freddie59

gurramok wrote: »

Ok, the posters here have been soley responsible for house prices declining since 2006.

We talked it down so much that we influenced the entire population of 4 million people who visit this forum

:D

francish

If you can get a good bargain and are relatively confident you will continue to have a a job for the next few years then buy. If I found a house I liked, I would look at what average price in area is and then request a 40% reduction, otherwise walk away.

Archytas

I recently bought in an area the GF and I liked, a nice house, at a nice price. Negative equity doesn't matter to us, and either do falling prices. I can afford the mortgage and am absolutely financially sound. However not everyone is in our position. Its down to personal circumstance.

Freddie59 wrote: »

Had the Governmnet/Banks and their cronies done likewise we'd all be sitting pretty now.

Wrong. Absolutely wrong.

Freddie59

Maybe slightly wrong. But in nowhere near as much turmoil as present. The Celtic Tiger was the product of an over-indulged property bubble. Fact.

Freddie59

francish wrote: »

If you can get a good bargain and are relatively confident you will continue to have a a job for the next few years then buy. If I found a house I liked, I would look at what average price in area is and then request a 40% reduction, otherwise walk away.

Unfortunately some EAs won't even pass on the offer in their eagerness to keep prices artificially high. Two houses went sale agreed in Waterford in the past week that were put on at realistic (-30%+ of current prices) asking prices. Prices in the area between €230k and €250k. Houses went on at €170k.

Freddie59

Archytas wrote: »

Negative equity doesn't matter to us, and either do falling prices.

Negative equity might not. But surely paying maybe 30% over the odds must niggle. Just a little?;)

krugerrand

Freddie59 wrote: »

A strange choice of words to describe people who are being wise with their money.

It's stretching one's credulity somewhat to include in the definition of, "being wise with their money" the practice of coming up with self serving predictions that are biased with negativity and over exaggerate the downside so as to deter prospective purchasers with the aim of bagging a cheap house oneself.

Freddie59 wrote: »

By the way, are you involved in the property sector by any chance?

I'm not involved in the "property sector", thank you very much.

gurramok

krugerrand wrote: »

It's stretching one's credulity somewhat to include in the definition of, "being wise with their money" the practice of coming up with self serving predictions that are biased with negativity and over exaggerate the downside so as to deter prospective purchasers with the aim of bagging a cheap house oneself..

Thats the funniest conspiracy theory i've heard yet. Still harping on about negativity causing house prices to fall, very amusing.!:)

In case you did not know, there will be plenty of those 'cheap' houses for everyone to pick up assuming they still have a job by then.

Yeh, we always advise purchasers to save tens of thousands of euro based on hearsay and rants:rolleyes:

Freddie59

krugerrand wrote: »

It's stretching one's credulity somewhat to include in the definition of, "being wise with their money" the practice of coming up with self serving predictions that are biased with negativity and over exaggerate the downside so as to deter prospective purchasers with the aim of bagging a cheap house oneself.


I'm not involved in the "property sector", thank you very much.

Of course you're not.;)

That's an awful mouthful above. So what you're trying to say is that, even though I correctly predicted prices in the last six months, I'm still wrong and trying to confuse people? And am deliberately 'misleading them' from YOUR perspective?:rolleyes::eek::D

FYI I really do care that if I can help anyone bag a bargain (given the financial slaughtering of young couples by, as it now turns out, some 50 developers over the past years) I most certainly will. As I said before, there were no complaints when the market was being 'talked up' (ie get on the property market NOW....before it's too late) but when the facts of the matter (the truth) are now being exposed, well, it seems to be a different kettle of fish.

ntlbell

It's all your fault Freddie.

single handedly bringing down the property market.

some man for one man :pac:

~Trixiebelle~

krugerrand wrote: »

It's stretching one's credulity somewhat to include in the definition of, "being wise with their money" the practice of coming up with self serving predictions that are biased with negativity and over exaggerate the downside so as to deter prospective purchasers with the aim of bagging a cheap house oneself.

i totally disagree with this statement...

Up until 3 weeks ago we were prospective purchasers!!

Our household is down €350 per week compared to this time last year (paycuts received since xmas) nevermind the tax rises we will be hit up with next month!! People can not afford to pay these over inflated prices anymore... even if i wanted to!!! The banks are not going to lend as they once did! you can not talk the housing market down... the paycuts and unemployment havent even come into the equation yet, in my opinion, the sh#t has yet to hit the fan!!!! This will drive the market down even further. Most young people want to make sure they have enough money to live on these days never mind borrow 320k for a "cheap" 3 bed semi!!:eek:

Its a scary time for most people, my job has NOTHING to do with construction or the housing boom and i never thought i would receive a 15% pay cut last week. Employers are just getting on the bandwagon at this stage and cutting pay using the recesssion as an excuse. The company i work for sited that they are down 2.5 Million on PROFIT on last year.... poor things.:rolleyes:

oceanclub

~Trixiebelle~ wrote: »

i totally disagree with this statement...

Up until 3 weeks ago we were prospective purchasers!!

Our household is down €350 per week compared to this time last year (paycuts received since xmas) nevermind the tax rises we will be hit up with next month!! People can not afford to pay these over inflated prices anymore... even if i wanted to!!! The banks are not going to lend as they once did! you can not talk the housing market down... the paycuts and unemployment havent even come into the equation yet, in my opinion, the sh#t has yet to hit the fan!!!! This will drive the market down even further. Most young people want to make sure they have enough money to live on these days never mind borrow 320k for a "cheap" 3 bed semi!!:eek:

I wonder what Kruggie's response will be? Probably to tell you that you're not trying hard enough. Or maybe that you're unpatriotic. Or that you're a vested uninterest. Let's take bets.

Wait - I've just realised - Kruggie is Tom Parlon!

P.

Freddie59

ntlbell wrote: »

It's all your fault Freddie.

single handedly bringing down the property market.

some man for one man :pac:

:D

Freddie59

~Trixiebelle~ wrote: »

i totally disagree with this statement...

Up until 3 weeks ago we were prospective purchasers!!

Our household is down €350 per week compared to this time last year (paycuts received since xmas) nevermind the tax rises we will be hit up with next month!! People can not afford to pay these over inflated prices anymore... even if i wanted to!!! The banks are not going to lend as they once did! you can not talk the housing market down... the paycuts and unemployment havent even come into the equation yet, in my opinion, the sh#t has yet to hit the fan!!!! This will drive the market down even further. Most young people want to make sure they have enough money to live on these days never mind borrow 320k for a "cheap" 3 bed semi!!:eek:

Its a scary time for most people, my job has NOTHING to do with construction or the housing boom and i never thought i would receive a 15% pay cut last week. Employers are just getting on the bandwagon at this stage and cutting pay using the recesssion as an excuse. The company i work for sited that they are down 2.5 Million on PROFIT on last year.... poor things.:rolleyes:

Trixie, you have my utmost sympathy. I sincerely hope that you get a house at the right price for you.

freddie.

jetski

Freddie59 wrote: »

I correctly predicted prices in the last six months

Ill try again...... POST A LINK.

AARRRGH

Now is the time to buy. I'll tell you why:

We have just come out of a property bubble so there is value out there at the moment. Compared to prices at the peak of the bubble, you can make great savings.

Interest rates are at record low levels, so your mortgage payments will be low for the next few years. Negative types might comment that interest rates won't say low forever, but every dog on the street knows you can't predict the future.

The same terminal-renters will say house prices may have some way to fall, but anecdotal evidence suggests we have passed the bottom and are heading for a rebound.

Please thank this post if you are deluded.

jetski

Fail

gurramok

jetski wrote: »

Ill try again...... POST A LINK.

Why don't you search his posts?

You can also search my and other bears posts going back 3 years to see we predicted it correctly in the timeframe year on year.

Go ahead, double dare ya

~Trixiebelle~

Freddie59 wrote: »

Trixie, you have my utmost sympathy. I sincerely hope that you get a house at the right price for you.

freddie.

Thanks Freddie, but we are still in a better position than most:(... my friends and colleagues are all receiving similar cuts and a majority are in 120k negative equity (houses have dropped a third of its price!!), one in particular is stuck in fixed rate mortgage for 5 years at something like 5.8%. The bank want 25k to switch to variable mort. Her hubby works for dub bus who could very well end up on strike for a number of weeks (meaning he will get €100 a week!!) and shes just came back off maternity leave to a 15% paycut!:eek:.....

we are down €1500pm in wages and reality is we are never going to get it back the same way as most people will never pay over half a million for a 3bed semi in Bray..... Welcome to the new (old) Ireland krug!!.....
back to tayto sangwiches and cups of tae!! forget your parma ham/sundried tomato panini's and Mocha's now!!! Theres are recession on ye know!!!:D

jetski

gurramok wrote: »

Why don't you search his posts?

You can also search my and other bears posts going back 3 years to see we predicted it correctly in the timeframe year on year.

Go ahead, double dare ya

Yea im gonna sit here and search trought 2000 odd posts.... anyone can say prices are gonna come down... if your good youd say by how much.