Budget Predictions 2009 - Post them here!

El Stuntman

Cowen to go on the lock tonight

johnnyskeleton

rubadub wrote: »

I think they will try and get some distinction between off licence alcohol sales and pub ones. They want to keep their publicans mates in business. I think there was some talk of a separate off sales levy before.

I thought they'd try something like that too, but I've heard that the excise is charged at the brewery rather than at point of sale. So an increase in the excise would have to be across the board.

seamus

What they should do (headline stuff):

1. Reduce minmum wage to €7.50
2. Reduce all forms of social welfare assistance by 5%, including child benefits and whatever else.
3. 10% redundancies in the the public service, weighted at the management level, along with removal of all bonusses (temporarily).
4. Both tax bands up by 2%, tax credits reduced by 10%, new third band - 55% above €100k.

This one needs to be vicious and it needs to be painful. We need to ensure that we're set up correctly for the future and not just limping along until the next boom arrives.

What they will do:

1. Reduce minimum wage.
2. Remove any "bonus" welfare assistance such as the €1k per child thing.
3. Public sector pay and hiring freeze for 2 years.
4. Minimal increases in taxation - probably 1 or 2% on the levy.
5. Supports for the builders - offer grants to builders to reduce prices and tax relief on new home sales.
6. 5-10c on the usuals.

Spud83

I'm pretty sure VAT will be reduced. Could just go back down the .5% they put it up last year or it could be more. They have already admitted it was a mistake so if they don't "fix" their mistake then its really unbelievable.

1) All levy rates to go up.
2) Widening of the tax base.
3) Plans for college fees for 2010.
4) Vat down to 21%
5) Increase in fuel, petrol, oil.
6) Early child care thing gone.
7) Childrens allowance to be means tested.
8) Rent Relief to be looked at. Rent has come down so should this.
9) Public Sector pay and hiring freeze. (more should be done).
10) Taxing of the public sector lump sump pension payment.
12) The dole / job seekers allowance to be cut by three to five percent.
13) New higher tax band to be introduced next year.
14) Levy's to be incorporated into the standard tax system next year.
15) Smokes left alone
16) Alcohol left alone unless there is a split between pubs and off licenses.

Unfortunantly I don't think this will be enough and the economy will continue to slide.

knipex

knipex wrote: »

In 3 to 4 months the government will announce that the budget increases have not brought in the extra revenue that was forecast nor have the made the savings that were forecast and the true deficit will be closer to 11 or 11.5 %. Election will be called and it will be left to the new non FF government to implement a totally draconian budget to try and resolve matters. A budget that need never have happened if the current shower had introduced a realistic budget last year instead of the cowardly attempt that they did implement.

New government will face public outcry when their budget is implemented. There will be a massive increase in the support for both the hard right (any immigrants, anti minorities etc) and the hard left.

Good post. I agree with everything except the last sentence. People will probably just vote FF back in again after someone else cleans up their mess.

mathie

Ah that's cute people think dole payments will be touched.
:rolleyes:

ongarite

Agree with everything that has been listed, cut in minimum wage is a pipe dream though, unions would kick up a huge stink.

IMO, means testing won't happen, instead it will be taxed as an income. Needs to be quick and instant. Means testing takes time, massive administration & man-power costs.

Fanny Cradock

It will be grim!

hellboy99

1. Petrol: +6c
2. Diesel: +8c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Children's Allowance: -€14
6. Dole: no change


Below is what I would do:

1. Petrol: -12c
2. Diesel: +2c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
6. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
7. Dole: no change
8. Children's Allowance: -€10
9. Carers Allowance: no change
10. Early Childhood Supplement: -€200 (payment restricted to children under 4)
11. Colleges Fees - fees (means tested)
12. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
13. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
14. VRT: -4%
15. Minimum Wage: -10c

walshki

The whole thing is a smoke screen. About 2.30 a truck will leave Central bank driven by the two brians containing the last of the country's money. This will board a chartered boat in the docks and head off for Cuba where Michael Martin recently purchased a large villa while on a pretend trade mission.

Alternatively 25c on cigs, 8cent on petrol and diesel, 10c on beer, minor on wine and other alcohol. 3% cut social welfare. Double the income levy and brink the ceiling for the now 4% band back to 75k. Also increase the PRSI ceiling to 75k just to cover the bases.

Don't think they'll go at pensions. Think later in the year will be taxation of childrens benefit.

As a matter of opinion they should abolish mortgage interest relief for people after 7 years.

zesman

Start properly taxing farmers with incomes in excess of €100,000

ntlbell

walshki wrote: »

As a matter of opinion they should abolish mortgage interest relief for people after 7 years.

do they not do this all ready?

Het-Field

If you think this budget will be bad, just wait until the September version.

I wouldnt be suprised if FF are holding off on the money shot until after the locals and Europeans. If they think their candidates are fcuked now, any further boat rocked would see FF down to between 100-150 local authority seats, and 1-2 European Parliment Seats..

Today will be another ham fisted attempts based on speculative tax increases. The VAT mistake has been acknowleged, but a token drop (around 20% would not be enough) wouldnt be acceptable. It needs to be on a parity, or below the UK level.

Petrol, TV Licence, Motor Tax will probably be increased, along with a text tax, and a highly uncompetitive Carbon Tax.

A third tax band is unlikely to be introduced, but a reajustment is equally unlikely. It will be a higher levy ("ajusted in the hope of looking fair" (posiible up by 2-4%)

The likelyhood of a "Toxic Bank" is a good call, save for the fact that the taxpayer is footing the bill.

Sale of state assets is completely unlikely

Anything which is revenue neutral (suspended/abolished stamp duty) will certainly not rear its head.

The suspension of between 3-4 Junior Minsters, is a token gesture, which will be amended in time, when the jobs for the boys mentality rears it's ugly head again

Finally, the government have an opligation to the vunrable. But this cannot be at the expense of society's most productive. If those at the top are not contributing, the most vunrable will suffer doubly, and the country will not be given th opportunity of pulling itself up by its boot straps.

ongarite

hellboy99 wrote: »

1. Petrol: +6c
2. Diesel: +8c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Children's Allowance: -€14
6. Dole: no change


Below is what I would do:

1. Petrol: -12c
2. Diesel: +2c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
6. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
7. Dole: no change
8. Children's Allowance: -€10
9. Carers Allowance: no change
10. Early Childhood Supplement: -€200 (payment restricted to children under 4)
11. Colleges Fees - fees (means tested)
12. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
13. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
14. VRT: -4%
15. Minimum Wage: -10c

Ehh, how does that actually bring any extra money in that the government needs???

Hooch

Just change the year to 2009 and were sorted!

Prepare for a couple of bad years. Drop yer trousers folks because Cowen wants to have fun

ongarite

As a matter of interest, what were tax rates and tax bands in 2003??

Total tax income has fallen back to 2003/2004 levels, so what would be the levels of taxation needed to counter-act this fall?

walshki

ntlbell wrote: »

do they not do this all ready?

You still receive €900 relief p.a. as a couple. Indefinitely to my knowledge.

TheSpecialOne

This will be harsh but next year we'll all think this was grand as were going to be facing the budget from hell next year or perhaps again this year october maybe!?...anyway heres what i think will happen today!
Petrol:up 2c
Diesel: up 5c
Cigarettes:up15c
Alcohol: up 30c on certain types ie vodka
vat: down to 18%
Dole: down 4 euro
Children's Allowance: down slightly
Carers Allowance: same as above
Early Childhood Supplement:gone adios!
Colleges Fees:fees (means tested)---disgrace im my view!
Minimum Wage:stays same but will be slashed soon!
all government to take 13% paycut!
ndp to be cut back by 45% at least!
and a new silly tax ie txt,house,travel

hellboy99

ongarite wrote: »

Ehh, how does that actually bring any extra money in that the government needs???

It would stimulate the economy, increase spending here and bring back the thousands that shop up north each week.

If all the following prices go up i.e. petrol, diesel, drink, cigarettes etc.. it will just send more people across the border and further decrease much needed revenue. I now fill up my car up north after buying my shopping there as it's cheaper than filling up where I live.

Also in relation to petrol and diesel, if this is increased this will be a disaster of a decision and we will no doubt see knock on effect increases in the prices of energy, transport, groceries, goods etc..

RiverWilde

Ah well if Biffo hikes up tax the way he's expected to, whatever I have left will not end up in this jurisdiction.

The FF/PD/Independent shower of idiots have had ten to fifteen years of boom.

What did they spend the money on? Hats? Shoes? Hair? Bottles of bubbly? failed infrastructural projects?

I'll be damned if I'll pay for the continuation of the party.

Riv

racso1975

I would like to see commercial vehicle road tax go up and a gambling tax brought back in

seamus

ongarite wrote: »

As a matter of interest, what were tax rates and tax bands in 2003??

Total tax income has fallen back to 2003/2004 levels, so what would be the levels of taxation needed to counter-act this fall?

Here you go:
http://www.budget.gov.ie/2003/budmeasu03.asp

Some choices from that one:

Drop the dole to €125/week (40% drop)
Drop standard tax credits to €800/year (55% drop)

ongarite

seamus wrote: »

Here you go:
http://www.budget.gov.ie/2003/budmeasu03.asp

Some choices from that one:

Drop the dole to €125/week (40% drop)
Drop standard tax credits to €800/year (55% drop)

Thanks for that. Very interesting and shows how hard the choices are going to be to get expenditure back under control.

To the poster above, it think it shows very clearly where all the money went to over the last 5-6 years. It was spent on reduced taxes, increases tax bands, higher OAP, dole & other social welfare benefits & huge increase in public sector workforce.

jimmmy

Slash the 20 billion the govt spends on pay and pensions by 25%, save 5 billion.

Richard Dower

I expect 50c on fags and a reduction of dole payouts of €20 per week....i also fear all the STEALTH taxes, the sly stuff not widely advertised in the media....the stuff they try slip in under the radar!

With the HSE seeking big cuts i feel that rent allowance will either be cut, capped or the contributation people make will go up. I also think the tax on Laser cards will go up!...it's €5 now but that could well go up to €20 per Laser card.

It's something the government KNOW we all must pay, it's something that is taken direct from the bank and direct from your bank account. Personally i think we're all royally screwed!!

Villain

I can't see any increase in excise duties, it will just drive money north of the border and how many FF TD's are publicans!!!

Sparkles09

One thing they won't do us tax celebrities for a change.

Anyone who earns under the following headings are exempt from paying tax if their work is Cultural, Artistic, Original or Creative:

Books or other forms of writing
Plays
Musical compositions
Paintings or other similar pictures
Sculptures

U2 should take note - share the wealth! This is your country after all.

This is a particular bone of contention for me as these people have FAR more money than any of us. Charity starts at home.

Another thing that won't be cut back: Expenditure on Make-up/ Grooming for public events.

We don't have one SINGLE politician worthy of a catwalk and therefore there is no need for such frivolities. Would I reach into my own pocket to spend €80 on having my hair washed? (Mary) or €250,000 on make up per year? (Bertie)

Certainly not. The government does that for me.

Deedsie

Hopefully they will put 10% on Alcohol from off licenses and leave publicans alone.

BroomBurner

walshki wrote: »

You still receive €900 relief p.a. as a couple. Indefinitely to my knowledge.

You only receive mortgage relief for 7 years and the amount varies. We are definitely not getting €900 p.a.

InReality

Budget Speech

Pro-active engagement by govt ..
Building on previous budgets ...


Details

Current levies all doubled 1-2%, 2%-4% & 3%-6%.
New terms and conditions for all new entrants to the public service.
Third level fees in. (be it loans, extra PRSI on graduates or some other method)
Some token effort to reduce numbers in public service be it early retirement, or redundancy.
25p on cigs.
25c on the pint
Scrappage scheme announced
PRSI limit removed or increased to €75k
A substantial cut in foreign aid of at least 100 million.
'Bad Bank' to dump toxic assets
No change in SW rates
increased tax on second properties
Childcare under 5 cut by 200e
PRSI \ health levy to rise by at least 1%
Tightening of conditions for claiming all social welfare and an announcement of a big crack down on fraud (more of what has been announced lately)
End of sitting TD's drawing pensions