Barclays Ecomonist...If Irelands wasnt in the EU, it wouldnt be this bad

Amberman

"Julian Callow, Europe economist at Barclays Capital, said Ireland requires the same drastic mix of "quantitative easing" and devaluation under way in Britain.
"If Ireland was running its own monetary policy it would not be in its current state. The imbalances would never have built up to the same extent in the first place. They now need a 20pc devaluation to get out of this. If they try to cut wages it could lead to debt deflation, and that will unleash another set of financial problems," he said."

HERE HERE!

How bad does it have to get before people wake up to the real culprit?

Wearing a straight jacket isn't a smart thing to do when you're drowning...Ireland isn't Houdini!

Scofflaw

Well, it's nice that you've found someone else to agree with you, but it would also be nice to see you selling a new line around here.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

ditto - there can be only one truth...and I'm not selling it....I like to think of it more as revealing it.

mike65

If Ireland wasn't in the euro since when though? The start of the curency or the start of the slump?

dizzywizlw

He's 100% right we would not be in this mess but for the EU.
We'd still be selling sheep and potatoes on dirt track roads with an uneducated workforce/living like a third world country, show some gratitute for the Billions that we recieved man!

Amberman

What hes saying is that Ireland is now paying a heavy price for it membership NOW...hes talking about in the now.

Edit: The past is gone...his statement makes no reference to the past as a way out.

is_that_so

So it's really nothing at all to do with a property bubble exacerbated by bad government or reckless bank lending or a populace that couldn't stop spending or even a public service that couldn't stop giving itself more money. I can only imagine how we would do looking for money in that brave new world.

dizzywizlw

Yeah I know, what I meant to put accross was that It's a bit rich to be unhappy at something which has helped us so much and let's be frank, if our own Government were even partially competent this wouldn't have happened at all!
Which implaces is he talking about btw, Capital Account, Current?

Also, the benifits NOW and the stability NOW in the present still outwiegh the disadvantages of the EMU.

The_Minister

If Ireland wasn't in the EU we would be Iceland.

Amberman

is_that_so wrote: »

So it's really nothing at all to do with a property bubble exacerbated by bad government or reckless bank lending or a populace that couldn't stop spending or even a public service that couldn't stop giving itself more money. I can only imagine how we would do looking for money in that brave new world.

Yeah...I see the mistake you're making...you're talking about the past...hes talking about the future...do you see how that works?

Heres a diagram

<

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Past

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> Future
<

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You are here

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>

Amberman

dizzywizlw wrote: »

Also, the benifits NOW and the stability NOW in the present still outwiegh the disadvantages of the EMU.

How so?

dizzywizlw

Amberman wrote: »

How so?

1. Countries with capital endowments can only survive if the have sufficent recourse to Land and Labor, i.e. big enough. Long and short of it Ireland today would collapse without an assured market for its endowment of capital i.e. IRL=EMU to investors.

2.Being pegged more to Germany/France, who are Economic powerhouses is a defacto 'state' guarantee

3.The ECB and EIB are not incompetent in economic affiars, Ireland is.

4.Bonds (The currency of capital assurance in a state) and infinitly more liqud in euro than they could be in punt due to the Germany/France effect.

5. Access to fair competition is a key factor in Economic Recovery and a functioning market. Wee old Ireland couldn't compete long-term with Eurozone countries without inflation parity.

is_that_so

Amberman wrote: »

Yeah...I see the mistake you're making...you're talking about the past...hes talking about the future...do you see how that works?

Heres a diagram

<

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Past

---

> Future
<

---

You are here

---

>

Yes this seems to sum it up pretty well. Lots of empty spaces where there should be actual proof.

Amberman

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes this seems to sum it up pretty well. Lots of empty spaces where there should be actual proof.

Proof of what?

is_that_so

Amberman wrote: »

Proof of what?

I'll leave you to work that out.

Amberman

dizzywizlw wrote: »

1. Countries with capital endowments can only survive if the have sufficent recourse to Land and Labor, i.e. big enough. Long and short of it Ireland today would collapse without an assured market for its endowment of capital i.e. IRL=EMU to investors.

2.Being pegged more to Germany/France, who are Economic powerhouses is a defacto 'state' guarantee

3.The ECB and EIB are not incompetent in economic affiars, Ireland is.

4.Bonds (The currency of capital assurance in a state) and infinitly more liqud in euro than they could be in punt due to the Germany/France effect.

5. Access to fair competition is a key factor in Economic Recovery and a functioning market. Wee old Ireland couldn't compete long-term with Eurozone countries without inflation parity.

Look at bond spread differentials. I think that takes care of most of your arguments.

Butkeep ing on topic....

Barclays economists (one of the banks that isnt owned by the state) says that, in order to get out of this fast, we need...

1. QE.
2. A UK style devalutation (makes perfect sense to me)

Why is he wrong?

Amberman

is_that_so wrote: »

I'll leave you to work that out.

Thankyou for playing.

Scofflaw

And on the other hand...

The collapse in credit and confidence has left Ireland in a perilous state says Dr Brian Lucey, of Trinity College's School of Business.

"We're not as bad as Iceland simply because we are in the eurozone," he says, "but within the eurozone we are more fragile than any other country."

That is partly because of the Irish Republic's small size and its brand of "crony capitalism", which prevented anyone calling an end to the party, according to Dr Lucey.

"One of the major problems was a toxic brew of a construction industry too close to government, and regulators captured at the gate. There's no doubt the poster child for failure is Anglo Irish Bank," he said.

I would call that a more accurate summary myself. We could have done something about the bubble despite the interest rates, and the government we chose, chose not to. Indeed, many of their measures seemed designed to exacerbate the situation, rather than alleviate it - instead of trying to cool down the housing bubble, they concentrated on making it easier for people to climb on board.

I don't think attempts to shift the blame elsewhere are either attractive or likely to succeed - but clearly some will keep trying anyway.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Yawn.....Heres the diagram again...I know its complicated...but try to keep up Scofflaw

<

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past

---

>future
<

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you are here

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>

Lets talk about the future....I think we all agree, we cant change the past...yes?

dizzywizlw

The bond differential is half of what it was last february in the present which is where you keep reminding us that we are

Plus the Bond yeild has risen since 2005 (addmitedly we dont have 2009 figures) and use the most current data we are still beating the spread in overall financial indices (OECD)

1.QE and Devaluation within an internal market would do nothing to help trade within the eurozone due to parity between the supply and devaluations. It would indeed help increse portfolio investment from outside the EMU I absolutely agree. I never argued against QE, I rejected the premise of your argument that we somehow could manage a self-worsened crisis better than the EU.

I guess its a case of disagree on the cause, agree on most of the solutions

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

Yawn.....Heres the diagram again...I know its complicated...but try to keep up Scofflaw

<

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past

---

>future
<

---

you are here

---

>

Lets talk about the future....I think we all agree, we cant change the past...yes?

I think the rest of us can agree that it's possible to learn from it - obviously, that doesn't suit you, so you'd rather not talk about it.

How about you offer a reasoned defence of your position, given this is your thread? Otherwise, this is just you soapboxing and handing out sparkling one-liners - and we're already aware that you don't like the euro.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

I think the rest of us can agree that it's possible to learn from it - obviously, that doesn't suit you, so you'd rather not talk about it.

How about you offer a reasoned defence of your position, given this is your thread? Otherwise, this is just you soapboxing and handing out sparkling one-liners - and we're already aware that you don't like the euro.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Its not that it doesn't suit me...I dont need to learn from it any more, so I didnt make this thread about that. I'm trying to do your job and keep the thread on topic.

Learning from the past will help us to not repeat it, but a different type of thinking is needed to find an optimal way out of the situation. Does it help a bear in a trap to to ponder endlessly how to avoid the trap in the future, or would its time be better spend trying to figure out how to get out out of the trap before bleeding to death? Do you see the difference?

I'll restate the argument here for you Scofflaw...ahem.....

the best way to quickly get out of a situation like this for an export led economy is to devalue. If you need me to explain why...just ask...but this is pretty basic stuff. Id be surprised if a man of your "intellect" needed help with this.

Ofcourse, I dont expect you to agree, becuae it would be an admission that the love of your life the euro isnt a perfect entity.

You're right...I dont like the consequences of the Euro. Im not a masochist.

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

Its not that it doesn't suit me...I dont need to learn from it any more, so I didnt make this thread about that. I'm trying to do your job and keep the thread on topic.

Learning from the past will help us to not repeat it, but a different type of thinking is needed to find an optimal way out of the situation. Does it help a bear in a trap to to ponder endlessly how to avoid the trap in the future, or would its time be better spend trying to figure out how to get out out of the trap before bleeding to death? Do you see the difference?

I'll restate the argument here for you Scofflaw...ahem.....

the best way to quickly get out of a situation like this for an export led economy is to devalue. If you need me to explain why...just ask...but this is pretty basic stuff. Id be surprised if a man of your "intellect" needed help with this.

Ofcourse, I dont expect you to agree, becuae it would be an admission that the love of your life the euro isnt a perfect entity.

You're right...I dont like the consequences of the Euro. Im not a masochist.

Well, it's extremely kind of you to come down amongst us poor fools and spread a little light, but since your method of spreading enlightenment has consisted of posting an article by someone else, followed by much trash-talking of other posters as too stupid to understand what the article "obviously" means, and given that we're now on to you telling me how to do my job...then, at the risk of appearing biased, I declare this thread to be of no value by virtue of being a copy of pretty much every other thread Amberman has started - the only difference being the article he leads with.

cordially,
Scofflaw