Is it always someone else's fault?

aare

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Sorry, should have used a sarcasm smilie, but I don't like using them.

In other news, looks like a haircut of "up to 15 per cent" (quote from article not from Davys) according to Davys. Goodbody are much the same I believe.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0409/1224244282391.html

Thank Heavens...I was a bit worried there in case you were the first person to sail clean over "M'Naughton" with the stress, live, on boards...

johnnyskeleton

aare wrote: »

Thank Heavens...I was a bit worried there in case you were the first person to sail clean over "M'Naughton" with the stress, live, on boards...

If anything, I'd rather go the Morgan (wrestling snakes in the underworld while high on acid) way.

dresden8

techdiver wrote: »

The NAMA will chase down every loan on the book and try everything to re-coupe the repayments. This would not happen unless the NAMA was established or the government nationalise the banks and stipulate the terms of business.

Really?

We all know how the Revenue Commissioners chase down every cent of tax, except when Charlie Haughey made a phone call and had Ben Dunne's tax bill cut.

How they went after Haughey's obviously dodgy earnings and then wrote down his tax bill when they were eventually forced to go after him.

Bertie's money/digouts/loans, whatever the hell they were?

Seriously, does nobody realise how things work in this country?

Acacia

Welease wrote: »

Isn't it a case of you reap what you sow? and in fact a lot more people are to blame than we would care to admit?

I agree, but I was only a child when most of this was happening (the Celtic Tiger, etc). So were my friends. I wasn't old enough to take part in any elections to vote in this shower of gobsh1tes.

So for people my age, who are going to 'reap' the worst of this, it really is all somebody's else's fault. :pac:

ninty9er

Acacia wrote: »

I agree, but I was only a child when most of this was happening (the Celtic Tiger, etc). So were my friends. I wasn't old enough to take part in any elections to vote in this shower of gobsh1tes.

So for people my age, who are going to 'reap' the worst of this, it really is all somebody's else's fault. :pac:

Actually you and me are of the generation that will reap the beginnings of the benefits of cheaper property, lower cost of living and the like, but we will suffer higher taxes, lower wages and longer working life.

On balance we're getting a much better deal than the 30somethings with 3 kids, 2 cars, a divorce and 2 mortgages.

Acacia

ninty9er wrote: »

Actually you and me are of the generation that will reap the beginnings of the benefits of cheaper property, lower cost of living and the like, but we will suffer higher taxes, lower wages and longer working life.

On balance we're getting a much better deal than the 30somethings with 3 kids, 2 cars, a divorce and 2 mortgages.

Thanks, that actually cheered me up somewhat!:) I was getting a bit depressed over this whole thing, not being able to find a job, etc...:(

bauderline

ninty9er wrote: »

Actually you and me are of the generation that will reap the beginnings of the benefits of cheaper property, lower cost of living and the like, but we will suffer higher taxes, lower wages and longer working life.

On balance we're getting a much better deal than the 30somethings with 3 kids, 2 cars, a divorce and 2 mortgages.

Great !!

Plenty of bitter people then to make sure FF stay out of power for the next twenty odd years !! Bravo !!

P.

bauderline

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What's Bull****? That I used figures (albeit not perfect but the best I have to hand) to back up what I am saying, the fact that I am looking at this from more than a 2 dimensional point of view, or is it bull**** becuase I disagree with you?



Thankfully, the NAMA has restored the ratings agencies faith in the Irish banks, and they upgraded the rating as soon as the budget was released! Slow decline is where we are headed, trading short term pain for long term loss.

That was more than a little crass on my part and I must apologise for it !

After reading that fairly long post of yours its obvious that you have some sort of background in finance or accountancy... and know what you are talking about. I am not saying I agree with you, but you do make some VERY good and INTERESTING points.... kudos !

P.

luckat

According to David McWilliams, who always seems to have his head screwed on right, even if it is a rather big head,

Make no mistake about it, the economy will contract dramatically as a result of this Budget.

(http://tinyurl.com/d3x333)

McWilliams asks why the Government didn't go to the European Central Bank and look for a structured credit deal. Good question, since at least part of the rocketing housing prices came from the fact that the ECB was setting our interest rates, rather than our own Central Bank. (The other two parts of the triangle were the fact that the councils had stopped building council housing, forcing poor people onto the market, and the fact that the Government didn't look for any other way to dampen down a market that was profitable for Fianna Fail's friends and members.)

dresden8

ninty9er wrote: »

Actually you and me are of the generation that will reap the beginnings of the benefits of cheaper property,

But is that not the lie of NAMA?

When property prices stay low there will be no price recovery for NAMA to capitalise on.

Will the banks be in a position to pay back that 90 billion through a "levy"?

I think not.

johnnyskeleton

luckat wrote: »

According to David McWilliams, who always seems to have his head screwed on right, even if it is a rather big head,



(http://tinyurl.com/d3x333)

McWilliams asks why the Government didn't go to the European Central Bank and look for a structured credit deal. Good question, since at least part of the rocketing housing prices came from the fact that the ECB was setting our interest rates, rather than our own Central Bank. (The other two parts of the triangle were the fact that the councils had stopped building council housing, forcing poor people onto the market, and the fact that the Government didn't look for any other way to dampen down a market that was profitable for Fianna Fail's friends and members.)

No doubt this budget will cause the economy to contract. Equally they could have gone to Europe and obtained a large amount of credit. In theory the last thing you should do in a recession is spend less and tax more (Keynesian paradox of thrift). However, Ireland is in such a bad state of repairs (due to FF's incompetence over the last 10 years) that we are now in a situation whereby:

1) we have a bloated economy with uncompetitive costs
2) we have a large and spiralling public debt
3) we have either the largest or second largest private debts per capita in Europe
4) we have a current budget deficit of between 20-30bn this year

Given that we have no control over our currency (which would mean that we could inflate all these problems away - albeit not without cost - and start again) we are in the Euro, and as such we have to deflate, reduce public debt, encourage reductions in private debt and close the budget deficit.

I am in favour of achieveing this by cuts in the public sector. It's not a question of fairness or punishing the hard working garda or anything like that, it's about the state balancing its books because we have overspent and our spending committment is far too high. Furthermore, tax increases are worse than public sector cuts, primarily because tax increases don't decrease the cost to empoly someone, whereas cuts in public sector wages creates downward pressure on prices and wages. There are other benefits to cuts rather than taxes, but essentially we have to deal with the issues at 1-4 head on. Previously in a recession countries could either print their way out of it or sit tight and wait for the economy to pick up. However, this time, we do not have either of those options. Unfortunately, the government has chosen to hit the wealth generating part of the economy rather than tackle the public sector. This is lazy populism, and it may well cost us our country.

So in short, while I don't agree with the way they have gone about it, I do agree that the government had to pursue a contractionary policy.

dresden8 wrote: »

But is that not the lie of NAMA?

When property prices stay low there will be no price recovery for NAMA to capitalise on.

Will the banks be in a position to pay back that 90 billion through a "levy"?

I think not.

Exactly. We may have lower house prices, but we will have higher taxes. In fact, the trend has been that house prices have remained artificially high despite the dramatic changes in the economy, primarily due to vendors' unwillingness to sell for "less than its worth". So the real doomesday situation is where we still have high property prices, high taxes to pay for an NAMA which hasn't pressed developers to offload their properties or else has repossessed but refuses to sell on the assets (sure why sell for less than its worth?), well capitalised banks that still won't loan enough money to pay these high prices (sure they might have to pay the levy in 20 years time) and a country devastated by unemployment, crime, poor services and high government spending.

The only good news is that a new Irish author emerges and hits the bestseller lists across the world. The book is called "How to destroy an economy in 10 easy steps" by B. Lennihan.

mickoneill30

Welease wrote: »

It's always someone else's fault for the mess thats happening..

If you blame somebody else it absolves you from having to do anything about it yourself. It's the easier option.

I know there's plenty that has to be done by the government but I know people who blame the government for absolutely everything and never get off their ass to fix some little problems that would improve their standard of living dramatically. Of course then you become somebody to point at if you make an effort and start getting results.

ferdi

ninty9er wrote: »

If some of the people complaining about the levies and cuts took the time to ask is it someone else's fault that they have:

A €20k car loan and a €20k salary
Sky+
A night out every month
A mortgage
2 holidays a year
Impulse buy furniture/techie stuff

....

I think you'll find that these are things people WANT and it's nobody's fault but their own if they can't now afford them.

You do not NEED to buy a house - especially an overpriced one. Never believe hype.

You do not NEED a holiday, and if you have to borrow for it, you should know that it's beyond your reach.

You do not NEED a new or nearly new car. There's plenty of decent 10+ year old car's out there that nobody wants because of the first 2 digits on the plate.

SKY+ is not one of life's NECESSETIES...

Great post!
there is plenty more you can add to that...you dont need a plasma tv and chances are if you have to borrow for something, you dont actually need it...during the CT luxuries transformed themselves into necesseties. the one that people will struggle to get their heads round the most is...You do not NEED to buy a house...and yes banks engaged in irresponsible lending practices but people were not being accosted in the street by bank managers and having 30year 100% mortgages for overpriced shoeboxes thrust into their hands...they went and asked for it...and by god, they got it. you dont need to own your home...you really dont.

ejmaztec

I find it amusing that the staunch FF'ers are blaming the consumer for destroying the economy by borrowing too much. They're dead but they won't lie down.

The lending institutions weren't born yesterday, especially with regard to Pat Public. There was no reckless lending to the consumer - this was all done at a much higher level - mainly to developers.

When one applies for a loan to purchase that household "must-have", one has to complete standard forms, which are vetted using the usual credit-worthiness criteria. If a consumer doesn't fall within that criteria, they don't get the goods. This is obviously the same with a mortgage.

Of course, there are less than honest people who will insist on providing lenders with inflated P60s and dodgy pay-slips, or keep quiet about their other debts. These are the clueless fools, but not everyone has been guilty of this.

With regard to property ownership, I can see the incentive to own instead of rent. The extortionate rents charged on many properties outweigh what one would have to pay on a mortgage, so there's more incentive to actually get something from your hard-earned outgoings at the end of the day. I'm fortunate enough to own my property outright, so I don't pay a mortgage or rent, in case anyone thinks that I'm biased in any way.

During the last few years, I've taken several people with sound business plans to various banks, and far from being reckless, the banks wouldn't back these people, even though they could all provide more than adequate collateral. In retrospect, perhaps those unsuccessful applicants should have asked for millions instead of ten or twenty thousand, so that there would have been no problem getting their hands on the funds.

ninty9er

Thanks to jmayo for pointing out what I had already disclosed 10 posts prior. So what if I'm a member of FF. Doesn't mean I agree with everything they do anymore than I disagree with everthing the opposition does.

Grow up and offer something constructive. The only reason FF is still in power is becuase it makes more of an effort to address the issues than it does on addressing the other parties.

Anyhow, to get back to the doom and gloom:rolleyes: We have a rapidly rising debt/GDP ratio, which btw is still and is likely to remain lower than the EU average.

There was pain in this budget. But there will be more and it will be tough. I'm not saying you have to like it, all I'm saying is it's coming, and no matter who is in charge, it'll have to be done.

Stimulus packages are all well and good if there's a liklihood they'll work. Germany got a scrappage scheme because tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans earn their living manufacturing cars, it wouldn't work here, so VAT arrangements for the motor industry are being altered instead to shift second hand stock. The UK is getting some sort of stimulus plan, but nobody knows quite what it entails, the US is getting a massive stimulus plan based on building, yet mention builders and developers in Ireland and FF is accused of bailing out it's "buddies":rolleyes:. What people need is a good long dose of reality.

The reality is; the rest of the world is not Ireland and Ireland is not the rest of the world. What hasn't worked here may work elsewhere and what hasn't worked elsewhere may work here.

Tuning an economy isn't something that can be learned overnight, and it's something most of the world isstruggling with. Alastair Darling is battling the tax and lose or spend and win debate with a looming UK election.

Whatever you think of the measures being taken or however many people they inflict pain on, they are focussed on strengthening Ireland for the future, and regardless of what jmayo or anyone else thinks of my political allegiances, I'm not going to abandon ship just because things are going badly right now, I'm staying put because I believe that Ireland has a future that is bright.

It's all well and good to sit on the sidelines and bitch and moan, come back to me whe you've knocked on doors and listened to people telling you what they're going through.

Tús maith, leath na hoibre.

We're at an economic roundabout, the decisions taken on which route to follow will be with us for decades, and I'm not afraid of paying an effective income tax of 25%/30% to pay for a strong Ireland we can all be proud of. Look at your P60 for last year. Divide your tax paid by your gross pay and come back to me if it's higher than that. There are very few for whom tax is effective at thsoe rates.

I know my parents effective tax on a joint €55/60k gross was less than 5% without going next nor near an accountant or an iota of tax planning.

That is simply unsustainable

flag123

The way I think of it, it's pay back time for the last ten years..
The "Celtic tiger" was unnatural. The normal state of the Irish economy is for unemployment to be in double figures.
Look at Ireland's history, its only ever been "good" from 1997 to 2007, the construction boom took us out of the last recession, whats going to take us out of this one?..or will anything take us out?..doesn't look likely, not for a long time anyway.

ynotdu

All of this is so head swirling I am beginning to wonder do we need a benihgn dictatorship for about 15 years?

before anybody else says we have had that already by ff/? coalitions lol,i,m really beginning to wonder will democracy save us?never thought i,d say this but martial law may,be our only solution for salvation.

It is such a dangerous time already striking may have to be outlawed:(

The coin betting on our future is already in the air,who knows if it will fall in our favour?

Truth be known i think nobody does:(

The 90 billion being borrowed to buy so called toxic loans from the banks so they can lend again is equivoulent of a person putting all their money&worldly goods as a bet in a bookmakers!

Dangerous dangerous times.
will we remain viable as a nation?