Still getting shocked by over priced property

blast05

As economic patterns go we ought to be careful, it might take more than three years to come out of it, if history teaches us anything it'll be seven or more.

Then again it might not. Certainly unexpected events in the US with Goldman Sachs having much bigger profits in the first quarter than expected and Wells Fargo providing early guidance of expected record profits for Q1.
Overall first signs of easing in the States:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7997940.stm
And while the cliche holds that if the US gets a cold that we get a flu .... well the opposite also holds so to speak cos of among many other things how open our economy is and how dramatically our cost base is reducing


All in all, no one can predict with any degree of certainty or authority what will happen over the next few years.
In my view, anyone proposing extreme scenarios shouldn't really be considered on this thread.

gurramok

blast05 wrote: »

Then again it might not. Certainly unexpected events in the US with Goldman Sachs having much bigger profits in the first quarter than expected and Wells Fargo providing early guidance of expected record profits for Q1.
Overall first signs of easing in the States:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7997940.stm
And while the cliche holds that if the US gets a cold that we get a flu .... well the opposite also holds so to speak cos of among many other things how open our economy is and how dramatically our cost base is reducing

All in all, no one can predict with any degree of certainty or authority what will happen over the next few years.
In my view, anyone proposing extreme scenarios shouldn't really be considered on this thread.

Oh my oh my.

Have you read up that we have a €16bn structural deficit from the Irish domestic bubble? The rest of the deficit(€5bn) is global orientated and this is from the horse's mouth(FF)
I noticed the bit about the cost base, now there might be fruits if they tackle the deficit of SW and public sector but don't hold your breadth.

We in Ireland are in for a long haul recession and it will take a massive reinvention aka Finland style 90's to get us out of it.

Regarding house prices, there is nothing to support a bottom out nor a expected rise, just look at the interest rates at near zero, no affect. We are screwed on the house price front(good news) and i do not apologise if this comes across as an extremist view as it is the truth imho.

Freddie59

gurramok wrote: »

Regarding house prices, there is nothing to support a bottom out nor a expected rise, just look at the interest rates at near zero, no affect. We are screwed on the house price front(good news) and i do not apologise if this comes across as an extremist view as it is the truth imho.

Great post. Spot-on analysis.

Mugatu

Freddie59 wrote: »

Great post. Spot-on analysis.

I think Peter Sutherland might disagree.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0414/1224244628334.html

PullOutMethod

blast05, your post is counter-intuitive:
Ironically an international recovery is probably the worst thing that could happen - interest rates would go up crushing already overstretched mortgage payers.
Indeed Lenihan has used it as an excuse to decrease subsidies and increase taxes.
Pray it does not happen.

Mugatu, normally one cannot predict the future.
However there is no prediction required:
Assuming no further deterioration in public finances the government requires ANOTHER 1.75Bn in the next budget on top of the Mini budget.

The minister had been frank: there will be tax increases and subsidy decreases for the next 3 years.

Property prices are a function of availability of credit therefore -
IRISH PROPERTY PRICES WILL DROP FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS

Even still our property will be overvalued vis-a-vis the rest of Europe.
I bought in 2000 and my house is overvalued vis a vis similar European cities.

Don't get me started on creche fees either - they are 150euro a month per child in Sweden / Norway etc (and you get reductions for further children !!!)

That article has nothing to do with house prices - indeed Sutherland admits the housing problems and then compares our current economic condition to where it was in the 80s !

Mugatu

PullOutMethod wrote: »

Mugatu, normally one cannot predict the future.
However there is no prediction required:

Property prices are a function of availability of credit therefore -
IRISH PROPERTY PRICES WILL DROP FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS

Ok, so your ARE predicting the future even if you reckon that it is not required. I'm not saying saying what way the market will go but I would like you to back up your comments.

I took a quick look at the average price of a 2 bed 120sq foot apartment in Brussels with 1 million population and 13.79% unemployment in the city:

http://www.vlan.be/vlan-immo/CatalogGenerate.do?intDesc_nombreDeChambres=2&pushCriteria=intDesc_nombreDeChambres&affinageStatType=RO
http://www.eupedia.com/belgium/population_statistics_brussels.shtml

The average price for that 2 bed is quite similar to ours. So where are you seeing the massive difference?

PullOutMethod

Mugatu, The governments deficit is not a prediction it is real.

How curious that you would use Brussels the EU capital and probably the city with the highest rate of living in the EU ?
EU politicians and staff do not pay taxes.
Are you seriously comparing Dublin to Brussels ???

I compared Stockholm 2 weeks ago.
500K in the Stockholm ( a capital city with 1 m inhabitants) will get you a villa beside a lake with half a hectare and a granny flat in the grounds thrown in.
I checked several cities in Germany in the 800K price range - my search thew up hotels !

blast05, these are not "extreme scenarios", Ireland's property market is not a magical place where the laws of economics do not apply.
What is extreme about comparing to similar cities in Europe ?
I'm afraid it was the Irish property market that was an extreme scenario.
It was a giant pyramid scheme.

gurramok

Mugatu wrote: »

I think Peter Sutherland might disagree.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0414/1224244628334.html

Peter Sutherland, a sacked director of the wrecked RBS bank, so yes he has had a reputation.
See past the spin, funny how he did not mention NAMA.

bobbiw

Kipperhell wrote: »

I think everybody would agree that selling in the current market should be avoided where possible. I can see property that in hindsight was a bad idea but there were some that to me seemed terrible ideas at the time. I watched this house get built and could see rather expensive materials were going in. Not my personal taste I must say but if it was where you were going to live your choice. The main issue seemed to be building something very expensive among cheaper houses.

Anyway it is now on the market and seems way over priced.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/97a-all-saints-road-raheny-dublin-5-raheny-dublin-co&-city/GFJWC358327

I think the max they will get is closer to €500,000 but I think the personal taste issue is a real draw back on this property

I think the max they will get will be 350, its way overpriced