Could the country go bust if the Dole reached 500,000?

Run_to_da_hills

Brother was telling me that if the dole rose to 500,000 the country would go bust. Could this be true?

eoinbn

It will reach 500,000, there is no if. It won't help the country but it will only be one of the factors that causes us to go bankrupt, not the sole reason.

Akrasia

This country is already going down the tubes, 500k on the dole is nothing compared to the governments insistance on giving 50-80 billion to the banks to bail out the developers. (costing billions every year in interest payments alone)

ynotdu

however with so many forces all at once snapping at our heels(the perfect storm they call it)the 26 county state as a viable entity is dangerously close to it.50/50 chance at the moment i would think.

It has happened in Argentina six times(not once as i had thought)

If much more unexpected things happen it could be a failed state,it is dangerous times with no guarantees ,and nowhere to run unlike previous recessions because it is global

Hope breeds eternal though!:)

leitrim lad

we cant really help how many poor souls are on the dole at the minute, not until we get the banks open again, but in the meantime i proposed to biffo over the weekend culling the public sector by 2/3 and he said it was the perfect solution going forward, in the long to medium future outlook as a defenite proposal.
and it is being considered as we speak in emergencey dail legeslation that is being rushed trough this morning.

and to answer your question we would not go bust with 1/10 of the population on the dole, but we will go bust with the size of the public sector that would leave the country in the position at the end of the year with 1/5 people living off the state,so the only solution is totally do away with the public sector, abolish it, privatise it

ynotdu

leitrim lad wrote: »

we cant really help how many poor souls are on the dole at the minute, not until we get the banks open again, but in the meantime i proposed to biffo over the weekend culling the public sector by 2/3 and he said it was the perfect solution going forward, in the long to medium future outlook as a defenite proposal.
and it is being considered as we speak in emergencey dail legeslation that is being rushed trough this morning.

and to answer your question we would not go bust with 1/10 of the population on the dole, but we will go bust woth the size of the public sector that would leave the country in the porition at the end of the year with 1/5 people living off the state,so the only solution is totally do away with the private sector, abolish it, privatise it

Leitrim lad you sure you meant privatise the private sector?:)

thebigcheese22

leitrim lad wrote: »

The only solution is totally do away with the public sector, abolish it, privatise it

I assume thats what you meant. Really? Do you not think we've privatised enough in this country? First Eircom, then Aer Lingus, our health service - privatisation doesn't work, this country will always need a public service. How do you suppose we privatise An Garda Siochana? Hire some private mercenaries? Your great shining knight of privatisation has been proven to be wrong, we need nationalisation in this country, not just of corrupt banks like Anglo- Irish, but of all the banks - so that we the taxpayers can get the reward of their profits, as well as taking the risk of their toxic debt bankrupting this country.

ART6

eoinbn wrote: »

It will reach 500,000, there is no if. It won't help the country but it will only be one of the factors that causes us to go bankrupt, not the sole reason.

The term "bankrupt" keeps on appearing in the media and elsewhere lately (not attacking you eoibn, just following on from your post). If someone is declared bankrupt by a court then his assets are seized and a proportion of any money he earns is taken, both to repay as much of his debts as possible. He cannot enter into loan agreements, can't get hire purchase or mortgages etc. So, how can that happen to a country? Which court places it into bankruptcy? Who takes its assets?

I think we should stop deceiving ourselves with that term since I can't imagine any way in which it could happen to a whole country rather than an individual or business. Instead what I suspect will happen is that the government's economic strategy of taxation and bad debt purchasing will result in government bonds being increasingly unattractive to international investment to the point where borrowing to fund the economic deficit will slowly cease to be an option and the government will no longer be able to meet its commitments. Sooner or later it will default on loans, and then its credit rating will fall through the floor. As a member of the Eurozone there is little the government can do about it, and so there will be a massive shrinkage in the public sector, a cancellation of most major capital projects, and a massive selling off of public assets (assuming anyone wants them). Unemployment will accelerate rapidly, starting with the number of ex-public employees and closely followed by those who would have been employed in the infrastructure projects. Half a million unemployed will begin to sound like peanuts.

Unemployment benifits will become unsustainable and the country will sink deeper and deeper into debt. One or more of the major banks will fail because they will be tarred with the same brush as the government, and there will no longer be any money to bail them out again. Those who have money in those banks as savings or current accounts will lose a major proportion if not all of their funds, as the international lenders that the banks have loan accounts with will be preferential lenders and will have first claim on any assets or funds left.

The example of Iceland is not relevant since Iceland is not part of the Eurozone, whereas Ireland is tied into a strong currency with a weakened and in due course failed economy. We will not be in a position where our currency becomes valueless, so we would become for the first time in history a collapsed economy with a strong currency. What happens then? I have no idea, and what worries me is that I an not convinced that anyone in government or the EU knows either.

Probably that is when the IMF appears knocking on the door, and then the similarity of the receiver calling at the door of the bankrupt becomes the reality?

Having said all of that, I stress that I am an engineer, not an economist or lawyer, so all of this post is just my layman's opinion, not a qualified one.

The Orb

leitrim lad wrote: »

we cant really help how many poor souls are on the dole at the minute, not until we get the banks open again, but in the meantime i proposed to biffo over the weekend culling the public sector by 2/3 and he said it was the perfect solution going forward, in the long to medium future outlook as a defenite proposal.
and it is being considered as we speak in emergencey dail legeslation that is being rushed trough this morning.

and to answer your question we would not go bust with 1/10 of the population on the dole, but we will go bust woth the size of the public sector that would leave the country in the porition at the end of the year with 1/5 people living off the state,so the only solution is totally do away with the private sector, abolish it, privatise it

Leitrim Lad, have you nothing else to say other than blame the country's ills on the public service. Is the property crash the fault of the public service? Is the bank crash the fault of the public service? This country is down the pan because of the corruption and self interest of one party and its vested interests, a party which you are a member of. Look in the mirror, its people like you that have prolonged the existence of this banana republic.

dresden8

leitrim lad wrote: »

, but in the meantime i proposed to biffo over the weekend culling the public sector by 2/3 and he said it was the perfect solution going forward, in the long to medium future outlook as a defenite proposal.
and it is being considered as we speak in emergencey dail legeslation that is being rushed trough this morning.

I'm sure he'd be happy you broke the news first here on boards.ie.

I'm afraid you owe me a new bullsh1t monitor as my old one just overloaded and blew up.

irish_bob

leitrim lad wrote: »

we cant really help how many poor souls are on the dole at the minute, not until we get the banks open again, but in the meantime i proposed to biffo over the weekend culling the public sector by 2/3 and he said it was the perfect solution going forward, in the long to medium future outlook as a defenite proposal.
and it is being considered as we speak in emergencey dail legeslation that is being rushed trough this morning.

and to answer your question we would not go bust with 1/10 of the population on the dole, but we will go bust with the size of the public sector that would leave the country in the position at the end of the year with 1/5 people living off the state,so the only solution is totally do away with the public sector, abolish it, privatise it

leitrim lad , i like your style a lot of the time , you cut through the bull**** but you seem to be blisfully unaware of the irony of you hammering the public sector day in day out yet at the same time ,maintaining your steadfast support for fianna fail

fianna fail have been nothing short of subservient to the public sector unions since 1997 , bertie aherne was the gift that kept on giving to the public sector , the only thing he ever saw when he sat down to negotiate was VOTES , how can you still support such a party or is it simply a case of like many other people in this country ,the disease being incurable at this stage

leitrim lad

irish bob

i agree with your points and they are going to be hard to argue with,

however to answer your question on the party, i have stated my position in this party on this site, about the two brians eunuch and mary coughlan and that should make my position clear,

bring back bertie and charlie mc creevy please the gag is up lads

or run the two brians and mary coughlan, they would be easily replaced by mary hanaffin ,noel dempsey, willie o dea and michael martin, a very good combination in my eyes

snollup

leitrim lad wrote: »

irish bob

i agree with your points and they are going to be hard to argue with,

however to answer your question on the party, i have stated my position in this party on this site, about the two brians eunuch and mary coughlan and that should make my position clear,

bring back bertie and charlie mc creevy please the gag is up lads

or run the two brians and mary coughlan, they would be easily replaced by mary hanaffin ,noel dempsey, willie o dea and michael martin, a very good combination in my eyes

Bring back bertie??? As previously said it was your beloved bertie that could not say no the the public sector. Enough said about your arguments!

leitrim lad

yes snollup

but read the last 3 lines very carefully

zootroid

Bertie has more to answer for in this mess than Cowen, but that is not to say Cowen should be absolved of any blame, he was finance minister afterall. McCreevy before him also has to take some of the blame.

They failed to address the high level of inflation a few years ago, and even added to it by lowering income taxes. This eroded our competitiveness. They introduced schemes to make investment in property very attractive. They presided over a state institution that failed to do its job (the financial regulator).

Corporate greed by banks and property developers are certainly to blame as well, but they are not answerable to the public, the government are. Had the CEO's of banks, and property developers been different people, the outcome would still have been the same. The people there at the time left their greed cloud their judgement and took advantage of the lax regulatory environment. The government should not have allowed this to happen as there have been past instances of property bubbles and the trouble they bring, as well as warnings from the ESRI.

It is Bertie, Cowen and McCreevy who are responsible for this mess, and anyone wanting McCreevy to come back to "save us" doesn't know what they're talking about.

leitrim lad

it is obvios going by the viale remarks being posted about some of the best men our nation has ever seen (bertie,mc creevy,haughey,reynolds,o dea, martin,o kieffe,dempsey)

that people have no respect for the only people who brought this nation to full employment something our generation (under 30) will never see again, and gave us good times and then even better times,

fair enough we are is bad times now but remember this

BLAME IT ON THE SCUM IN THE BANKS ,who threw out money left right and center to idiots with high hopes of skyscrapers in d4, casinos and so on ,

they are to blame not ,the people who gave us the good times

thebigcheese22

leitrim lad wrote: »

it is obvios going by the viale remarks being posted about some of the best men our nation has ever seen (bertie,mc creevy,haughey,reynolds,o dea, martin,o kieffe,dempsey)

that people have no respect for the only people who brought this nation to full employment something our generation (under 30) will never see again, and gave us good times and then even better times,

fair enough we are is bad times now but remember this

BLAME IT ON THE SCUM IN THE BANKS ,who threw out money left right and center to idiots with high hopes of skyscrapers in d4, casinos and so on ,

they are to blame not ,the people who gave us the good times

'Good times?' - just remember that even in the Celtic Tiger, there were no 'good times' for a lot of people, and our society remained one of the most unequal in Europe. Anyway...

Wait a minute - previously you said it was the 'bloated, overpaid,yada yada' public service that caused this recession, now you say it's the 'scum in the banks'. Which is it?

I'll answer that for you -

I think if you have any grasp whatsoever in economics or politics, you'l realise that it was the Government aka Fianna Fail that caused this recession - no-one else

You say they brought us up to full employment - this was based on a property bubble that was never going to last. What was Biffo and Bertie's back-up plan when this happened? Nothing! Hence, this outrageous and inequitable emergency Budget.

Fianna Fail, and specifically Charlie McCreevy (your so-called hero :rolleyes:), was responsible for letting our banking sector become one of the most unregulated in Europe. This has exacerbated the global credit crunch in this country to a point where we are risking the viability of this nation financially, to create a bad bank, doubling our national debt, and which if it goes wrong (which I think it will) will truly bankrupt us (I know a previous poster stated the undesirability of this word, but I fail to think of another word), and destroy this great country for our children.

And as for the public service, as a poster rightly previously pointed out - it was Fianna Fail that increased the public service exponentially. While I have no problem in investing in more teachers and Gardai - Fianna Fail gave big fat salaries to the beurocrats in the HSE, Fas etc. You can't blame this fact on anyone else except your own glorious party.

Personally I believe Fianna Fail are guilty of economic treason, and there should be a general election held right away.

And I think this ignorant person above me is an obvious troll, or just not up to any sort of political debate - either way his arguments are laughable.

Dr Galen

i'm beginning to think that he may be someone in Mount St having a bit of a laugh

grahamo

500,000 unemployed from a workforce of around 2 million would be analogous of the
1980's where we had unemployment of 250,000 from a workforce of around 1 million. We didn't go bust then!
The 80's was a struggle but everyone got through it. In the same way everyone will get through this recession.
P.S. Why is it only the under 30's who keep banging on about the current recession as though its the End of f***ing Days.
Older members of the workforce have seen it all before and believe me it was a lot worse last time. I think the younger members of the population have got so used to living the so called "good life" that as soon as the downturn came along they were unable cope with it.
The younger, inexperienced workers were the first to be let go back in the 80's just as the younger, inexperienced workers are losing their jobs first today. Thats the way it goes!

spank_inferno

I think unemployment will reach its peak at about 450,000 but either way it wont bankrupt the country (we may have no money, but we cant be made bankrupt )

Social welfare spending is projected to be 21billion for '09.
Gov receipts are expected to be 34billion for 09 (based on march estimates)
I think income will be lower I think that the recent budget tax hikes will do well to keep it at 34billion, it could get to 30 billion income with 25billion being spent on S/welfare.

Though we wont go bust. Irelands ability to borrow to make ends meet will be stretched to its limit.

October/Nov will be interesting because of the self employed tax returns.
I can see them plumeting to record lows.

thebman

leitrim lad wrote: »

bring back bertie and charlie mc creevy please the gag is up lads

or run the two brians and mary coughlan, they would be easily replaced by mary hanaffin ,noel dempsey, willie o dea and michael martin, a very good combination in my eyes

leitrim lad wrote: »

yes snollup

but read the last 3 lines very carefully

I did and I hope your bloody joking. Noel Dempsey! Willie O'Dea and Michael Martin and Mary Hanaffin are some of the most useless people I have ever seen.

leitrim lad

no there not

they are the future, and it will be another ,boom time when noel dempsey makes taoiseach

i reckon dempsey will top 3million employed in his term

Dr Galen

the whole idea of a "boom time" is wrong. What we need now is to learn from this, and a build a solid and sustainable economy. Something based on more than construction and houses. Booms inevitably lead to busts.

As for Noel Demspsey, he's certainly not the worst of the FF party. He may well make party leader someday, but not as Taoiseach.

leitrim lad

o he will make taoiseach

i guaruntee it, he is a cross between albert, charles and bertie, just what the country needs

disipline and a broad mind, all in the one man

professore

grahamo wrote: »

500,000 unemployed from a workforce of around 2 million would be analogous of the
1980's where we had unemployment of 250,000 from a workforce of around 1 million. We didn't go bust then!
The 80's was a struggle but everyone got through it. In the same way everyone will get through this recession.
P.S. Why is it only the under 30's who keep banging on about the current recession as though its the End of f***ing Days.
Older members of the workforce have seen it all before and believe me it was a lot worse last time. I think the younger members of the population have got so used to living the so called "good life" that as soon as the downturn came along they were unable cope with it.
The younger, inexperienced workers were the first to be let go back in the 80's just as the younger, inexperienced workers are losing their jobs first today. Thats the way it goes!

This is going to be worse than the 80's - I know, I lived through them. Back then you had nothing, now you are in negative territory to the tune of hundreds of thousands. You also had a less PC nazi style government interfering in your everyday life. As for Noel Dempsey, God save us all !!!!

leitrim lad

and another nettle in our side is the public sector which we didnt have in the 80s if i remember rightly

so that can be done away with too,

dresden8

leitrim lad wrote: »

and another nettle in our side is the public sector which we didnt have in the 80s if i remember rightly

so that can be done away with too,

So, there was not public sector in the 1980's.

Riiiiiiiiiiight.

Backs away slowly, not making eye contact.

Rod & Reel

Leitrim Lad i think its time to take ur head out of ur ass.
(i know i did)
A quick story on how i picked my politcal team to which i would vote. i was 5.
Its quiet simple, leaving mass one sunday morning Charles J Haughey was outside shaking hands and doing the usual before an election looking for votes. I was in awe as i had seen him on tv loads a times prior as the debates were on and so on, u get the picture. so there is how i picked to vote FF at 5. a lasting impression one would say.

Fast foward 27 yrs, Actually no go just 24 yrs and Brian Cowen is our Finace Minister. again the debates are flying about and my instinct is to say yes Brian would make an excellent leader of our country.
He's straight he fights hard and he has a dogged commitment about him all the aspects one needs to be a leader.

now foward 3 more yrs up to date to day.
What plan has this man come up with what ideas has he put foward for the economic soverinty of our nation what did he do before this crash to try and make it as easy for all involved.

But could he not see by raising welfare for fun raising the minimum wage for more fun would only makes us more uncompetitive in the new europe or asia. these multinationals do not care where there factories are just so long as there getting the rite tax breaks and good productivity at the rite price.
We no longer offer the rite price. its simple math really if ur local shop was offering a pint of milk for .50c and the shop 2 doors down was .25c where would u buy milk.

Bertie Charlie Brian all let ourselves be priced out for the sake of a vote.

i was always a FF person, since i was 5 now im left in a situation where i need to pick another politcal team and that in its self will not be easy. the choice is poor but its better than we have got at moment.

sceptre

leitrim lad wrote: »

and another nettle in our side is the public sector which we didnt have in the 80s if i remember rightly

so that can be done away with too,

No, we've had the public sector since 1922. Before then it was someone else's public sector.

Please think before you post. Then think again. Then post.

thebman

leitrim lad wrote: »

no there not

they are the future, and it will be another ,boom time when noel dempsey makes taoiseach

i reckon dempsey will top 3million employed in his term

The future of a bankrupt country if that is the road you want to head down, have fun.

I'm going to try to get off at the next exit.

leitrim lad wrote: »

o he will make taoiseach

i guaruntee it, he is a cross between albert, charles and bertie, just what the country needs

disipline and a broad mind, all in the one man

I find it hard to believe you actually support a crowd with such astonishing examples of bad decision making behind them. Why would you blindly support those people? Noel Dempsey used to be in charge of communications. We have one of the worst broadband infrastructures in Europe and the highest prices and this is what you consider leader material?

francish

The Orb wrote: »

Is the property crash the fault of the public service? Is the bank crash the fault of the public service? This country is down the pan because of the corruption and self interest of one party and its vested interests, a party which you are a member of. Look in the mirror, its people like you that have prolonged the existence of this banana republic.

Developers were able to buy overvalued property by borrowing from banks. Banks are only able to operate if they have a licence from the civil servant operated central bank/financial regulator. Give me one could reason why all senior management in Central Bank/Regulator should not be on sacked?