Do You Think FF will lose the Next Election

Milkey Bar Kid

I know there all useless but I hope they lose

Lockstep

If there was an election tomorrow, then yes, I believe they would lose.

Given it's a few years away, it's anyones guess.

Milkey Bar Kid

I dont think the Irish people will want to wait that long .

brianthebard

I think they could still end up in government in a coalition. Its tempting to write off FF but they have a habit of shifting the blame. You can see they are already preparing doorstep spiels in the way they constantly claim the current economic woes are due to the world market, trying to pretend its not their fault for fostering a bubble.

Milkey Bar Kid

I can't wait for them to call at my door . I have a list of abuse im going to throw at them . Just hope I remember it all

turgon

Brianthebard is right, but what is more worrying still is the fact that so many people in Ireland vote on ignorance. So even though FF have raped the country, some people will still insist on voting for them.

Im not that confident they will be gone to be honest. If there was an election tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow wormed their way into governance.

ilkhanid

brianthebard wrote: »

I think they could still end up in government in a coalition. Its tempting to write off FF but they have a habit of shifting the blame. You can see they are already preparing doorstep spiels in the way they constantly claim the current economic woes are due to the world market, trying to pretend its not their fault for fostering a bubble.

Of course only in Ireland could they get away with it. The Irish-the mugs!-are suckers for swallowing their lame excuses and for forgetting their blunders in a few months. Where else would people believe that Bertie won it in the horses, or that he went up every tree in north Dublin etc etc etc?

Permabear

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delop

There were a 100 reasons not to vote for them last time around...

So how did they get in? They bought votes! So IMO until Joe public grows up, nothing will surprise...

is_that_so

In the locals they will get a pasting. The Euros are irrelevant athough FG will be keen to get bragging rights on being the largest party. In the GE they will be beaten even if we have come out of this by the time the election comes along. Their most effective weapon in the last one was Bertie. The only coalition option realistically open to them is the Greens/FF gene pool and other independent hangers-on. The trouble is the Greens are very shaky as well and could well lose half or more of their representatives. Labour will not touch FF even if it means opposition again.

I don't see the current Dail making it all the way and would not be surprised to see an election late this year or early next year. Reimposition of third level fees or a variation on them could be the key.

brianthebard

ilkhanid wrote: »

Of course only in Ireland could they get away with it. The Irish-the mugs!-are suckers for swallowing their lame excuses and for forgetting their blunders in a few months. Where else would people believe that Bertie won it in the horses, or that he went up every tree in north Dublin etc etc etc?

I don't think its as simple as saying Ireland is the only country with the level of incompetency or corruption in government, look at Italy for a start. Also you can't discount the effect of local representatives who will impress voters who don't care for the party as a whole. Also the pr system has been good to FF over the years I think.

is_that_so wrote: »

In the locals they will get a pasting. The Euros are irrelevant athough FG will be keen to get bragging rights on being the largest party. In the GE they will be beaten even if we have come out of this by the time the election comes along. Their most effective weapon in the last one was Bertie. The only coalition option realistically open to them is the Greens/FF gene pool and other independent hangers-on. The trouble is the Greens are very shaky as well and could well lose half or more of their representatives. Labour will not touch FF even if it means opposition again.

I don't see the current Dail making it all the way and would not be surprised to see an election late this year or early next year. Reimposition of third level fees or a variation on them could be the key.

What makes you think Labour wouldn't go into coalition with FF? I wouldn't put it past them.

turgon

donegalfella wrote: »

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Do you think there would be enough support in the populace to for a large scale right-wing party, with the long long long term goal to be as big as FG/FF?

nesf

If FF don't lose the next election then FG and Labour should just disband as parties.

Permabear

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heyjude

brianthebard wrote: »

I think they could still end up in government in a coalition. Its tempting to write off FF but they have a habit of shifting the blame. You can see they are already preparing doorstep spiels in the way they constantly claim the current economic woes are due to the world market, trying to pretend its not their fault for fostering a bubble.

Totally agree. No matter what the opinion polls say now, when election day comes around, all the lifelong FF voters will return to the fold, FF will be assured of over 35% of the vote and with excellent vote management, they should have enough TDs to ensure that with the help of some small party and power hungry independents, that they will have enough support to cobble together another coalition government.

We have become a single party state, its just that nobody seems to have noticed and the nonsense people use for supporting the status quo( eg. Don't like/trust Enda Kenny, the other crowd don't have the experience, its a global problem so no need to change my vote etc), are just excuses to soothe some peoples' consciences as they continue to vote FF.

In any other walk of life, if you try a product/service and they let you down, you switch to their competition. Why not adopt this approach when choosing a government ? Its not as if the other parties could do worse, I mean we're already having emergency budgets every few months, huge tax increases, massively increased state borrowing, talk of the IMF being brought in and government policies that at times seem to change by the hour. Maybe it is time for a change, but do I think it will happen.....unfortunately No.

rcecil

"At this stage, Gilmore and Kenny aren't offering anything substantially different from Cowen; all three are promoting one version or another of big-government social democracy. The only feasible electoral alternative might come from a right-wing party that would argue for stronger fiscal rectitude, a radically downsized public sector, meaningful cuts in social welfare spending, and lower taxes, but we currently don't have such a party."

Yeah -- that's a great solution. Another right wing bunch of greedy, stupid fascists. Every country with a higher living standard is to the left of George Bush but you want a return to the good old days of Mussolini making the trains run on time and Dick Cheney defending oil interests with troops.

Sinn Fein is the only working class party with honest and new leadership like Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty. And Sinn Fein TDs don't cross picket lines (unlike labor Tds). Check out the policies at www.sinnfein.ie

Pride Fighter

I can see FF and FG being on 55-60 seats each with Labour on 30-35 making them kingmakers. Yes they will lose seats but they could still be in power in 2 months time when the next GE is held;)

Permabear

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destroyer

Never ever underestimate FF's ability to somehow gather up enough votes at election time. I remember busting my hole laughing at the ass Bertie made of himself telling B Dobson silly tales, and thinking FF would get whipped at the next election but look what happened.
They'll crucify us for the next 3 years, then just before the election, throw us a sweetener of some description, scare us with hints of the oppositions inexperience and away we go again.

Pride Fighter

rcecil wrote: »

Sinn Fein is the only working class party with honest and new leadership like Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty. And Sinn Fein TDs don't cross picket lines (unlike labor Tds). Check out the policies at www.sinnfein.ie

Sinn Fein crossed that particular picket you are on about. Labour did too but had a long chat with the workers before doing it and had their blessing. Anyway SF will never pass 10 seats for the foreseeable future, when the current generation of ex gunman step aside maybe they can build past that.

turgon

rcecil wrote: »

Yeah -- that's a great solution. Another right wing bunch of greedy, stupid fascists. Every country with a higher living standard is to the left of George Bush but you want a return to the good old days of Mussolini making the trains run on time and Dick Cheney defending oil interests with troops.

I think your understanding of "right wing" is quite limited. You have just basically described an Italian dictator as the only possible goal a right wing party could have.

destroyer

Milkey Bar Kid wrote: »

I can't wait for them to call at my door . I have a list of abuse im going to throw at them . Just hope I remember it all

Take no chances. Have it written down.

Johnnyjump

If FF don't lose the next election, then it wouldn't say much for the people of this country. Those who speculated before the last election that things were NOT so rosy, were sneered at and ridiculed by Fianna Fail. It seems to be the same cycle.
The only reason Fianna Fail won the last election was because on the final week of the campaign, the Irish people lost their courage and listened to the rubbish that by not voting for FF, we would lose our strong economic position. People voted for FF and now look at us!!

destroyer

You have to admire the way they kept the lid on the thing until the election was over . Both the economic horror story and Berties ..emm...huge wins on the gg's (in foreign currency at that) were just kept under wraps long enough to get the votes in, and don't be surprised if something similar happens again.

RedXIV

I can't see how they could win the next election, with so many years of the the Celtic Tiger's children now experiencing their first recession, and human nature to blame someone will undoubtably focus on the government. I do think it's the third level fees that will cinch it though, the students all over the country aren't happy with this and they organise themselves rather well. If they decided to vote en masse against FF, they shouldn't be underestimated

Pride Fighter

RedXIV wrote: »

I can't see how they could win the next election, with so many years of the the Celtic Tiger's children now experiencing their first recession, and human nature to blame someone will undoubtably focus on the government. I do think it's the third level fees that will cinch it though, the students all over the country aren't happy with this and they organise themselves rather well. If they decided to vote en masse against FF, they shouldn't be underestimated

Why do you think it is FF policy to hold elections midweek while students are doing finals, most of them cannot go home to vote. Unless there was a summer election or one held on the weekend we wont see a student swing in Ireland.

RedXIV

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Why do you think it is FF policy to hold elections midweek while students are doing finals, most of them cannot go home to vote. Unless there was a summer election or one held on the weekend we wont see a student swing in Ireland.

They had exams on as well when they did the protest marches up in Dublin but it didn't stop them. Don't underestimate the students, With talks of the recession and economy, a lot of them are trying to learn as much as they can. I was never big into politics until about a year ago, but my little sister in secondary school is doing her LC and she says it's always talked about. And she and most of her friends are 18, so eligible to vote. There's a huge amount of interest when people hear that money is being taken off them, i'd be surprised if Ireland didn't show it's vindictive nature at this election, just to make sure FF don't get back in.

Pride Fighter

RedXIV wrote: »

They had exams on as well when they did the protest marches up in Dublin but it didn't stop them. Don't underestimate the students, With talks of the recession and economy, a lot of them are trying to learn as much as they can. I was never big into politics until about a year ago, but my little sister in secondary school is doing her LC and she says it's always talked about. And she and most of her friends are 18, so eligible to vote. There's a huge amount of interest when people hear that money is being taken off them, i'd be surprised if Ireland didn't show it's vindictive nature at this election, just to make sure FF don't get back in.

I agree that the student body is getting mobilised across the country, I see it in my own University.

But the protest you are on about did not take place during exam time, it was about 2 weeks before exam time, in my College anyway. But the point I made regarding students voting is valid, it would be a logistical nightmare,even for the best organised student group to ensure their voters can vote on the same day they have an exam, there are students from every county, only those living permanently near their 3rd level institution could use their franchise to effect.

RedXIV

Its Definitely a valid argument, i won't disagree with you there but i'd happily trek the 3.5 hours home to vote just for the chance to give FF two fingers. I know quite a few others that would do the same. We may not get all the students to vote but i guarantee there will be far more interest in the next general election than in previous ones from the student bodies

turgon

RedXIV wrote: »

i guarantee there will be far more interest in the next general election than in previous ones from the student bodies

Especially with all the talk of college fees.

oscarBravo

Pride Fighter wrote: »

...only those living permanently near their 3rd level institution could use their franchise to effect.

...or those who used the postal vote to which they're all entitled.