Cost of Northern Ireland

jimmmy

futurehope wrote: »

Yes, but you can have as many states as you like on an island - look at a world atlas for many examples.

Its funny how most island groups in the world find it best when they form one union. Look at the islands of Japan for example. They would never have been the world power they were in the 20th century if they were independent little island states. The 2 islands of New Zealand are united of course...that way they can get some economy of scale. The Canary islands. The Maltese islands. The Hawaiian islands. It would have been crazy for one ( or part of one ) of they islands to break away and become independent.
Most of the people of N. Ireland rightly wish to remain part of the UK. That way they have better economy of scale ....cheaper food, shopping, cars etc. Less expenditure on politicians / governments per head of population. Greater economires of scale with regard to running public services, foreign diplomatic representation etc. Hard to blame them.

Deedsie

Most Island groups do not have the same history as this group? In a recession, its more likely the UK citizens from GB will be less and less impressed with there money being used to support Northern Ireland, especially now that its been stabilized.

Will the Northern Ireland issue be ever solved untill unity is established?

ardmacha

Less expenditure on politicians / governments per head of population.

Nonsense. Does anywhere on Earth have more expenditure on politicians and government than NI?

I think it has very little to do with Britain wanting the North to remain within the UK, and an awful lot to do with the overwhelming majority of the Northern Ireland population wishing to remain within the Union.

What overwhelming majority? Only 49% of people vote for unionist parties, not much more than the 43% voting for parties that are trying to abolish the union. There is a block in the middle who would be influenced by the financial arrangements in place.

I dunno what your above colonial reference means? unless you mean that Northern Ireland itself is a colony?

Of course it is a colony. On what date did it cease to be a colony?

futurehope

Deedsie said:

Most Island groups do not have the same history as this group? In a recession, its more likely the UK citizens from GB will be less and less impressed with there money being used to support Northern Ireland, especially now that its been stabilized.

More political naivety. Most people on the mainland don't give Northern Ireland a second thought, especially now it has been stabilised and normalised. What day dreaming, Irish Nationalists forget is Northern Ireland only costs the average mainland family £250 per year - hardly likely to send them into a frenzy. As for the recession changing their thinking, pretty unlikely I'd say, given the fact there have been several serious recessions since '69.

Will the Northern Ireland issue be ever solved untill unity is established?

There won't be 'unity'. In the unlikely event of Catholics becoming a strong majority in Northern Ireland, and in the unlikely event they will all vote for 'unity' in a border poll (in the unlikely event said poll is ever called), Loyalists will set up a new state based upon a re-partitioned NI. Any attempt to deny them self determination will be met with serious disorder. Of course, to be fair, The Irish State knows all this.

futurehope

ardmacha wrote: »

What overwhelming majority? Only 49% of people vote for unionist parties, not much more than the 43% voting for parties that are trying to abolish the union. There is a block in the middle who would be influenced by the financial arrangements in place.

You assume SF and The SDLP are trying to abolish The Union. Perhaps you're right. As regards voting trends, Northern Ireland has a sectarian voting block system, where people vote for their own 'tribe'. This does not precisely correlate to how they would vote in any border poll.

Here's some interesting figures:

All those favouring Irish Unity: 23% of NI Voters
Catholics favouring Irish Unity: 47% of Catholic Voters

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

I think these figures explain where I'm coming from.

Deedsie

futurehope wrote: »

Deedsie said:







There won't be 'unity'. In the unlikely event of Catholics becoming a strong majority in Northern Ireland, and in the unlikely event they will all vote for 'unity' in a border poll (in the unlikely event said poll is ever called), Loyalists will set up a new state based upon a re-partitioned NI. Any attempt to deny them self determination will be met with serious disorder. Of course, to be fair, The Irish State knows all this.

More political naivety there too.

Throw the Good Friday agreement out the window if thats the case. Nationalists have been living in a partitioned state as it was the will of the people of the North to remain in the UK.

If this changes and the people of the North seek unity, the unionist population will have to accept it as a term of the GFA. If the start digging there heels in, bring on the UN. Armies on the streets again or unity.

The nationalist vote has been growing in every election, is it not naivety to say there will never be unity. And as for repartition, dont make me laugh, do you think the UK governent or the Dáil would allow that again.

Would be like kicking yourself up your own arse.

jimmmy

Deedsie wrote: »

If this changes and the people of the North seek unity, .

They already have all the unity they want, as they wish to remain part of the United Kingdom. As I said, that way they have better economy of scale ....cheaper food, shopping, cars etc. Less expenditure on politicians / governments per head of population.

Can'tseeme

Partition has been for over 80 years so it's bound to have been moulded enough were it works for the people in the 6 counties with the benefits from the british exchequer. The economic reason for unity is not going to be won comparing unity to partition now, when both states are geared towards partition atm. Britian has already stated nearly 20 years ago it has no reason to remain in Ireland. So it's up to the people of Ireland to work out how we want this island to work. Economic unity is major part to winning the hearts and minds of Ireland and can be won through a gradual process were people benefit through it. Remember the poorest counties in Ireland are the border counties.

We're in the early stages of the agreement really since the DUP signed up, north/south bodies are at an early stage as are British/Irish affairs. It will be interesting to see what the next ten years brings.

Remember Ireland will always be united, it's the people on it are divided.

Deedsie

jimmmy wrote: »

They already have all the unity they want, as they wish to remain part of the United Kingdom. As I said, that way they have better economy of scale ....cheaper food, shopping, cars etc. Less expenditure on politicians / governments per head of population.

Some of the people of Northern Ireland have what they want. Jeez the economy is different for different countries all over the world.

My point is that untill Ireland is united in some sort of meaningful way that the nationalist communities of the North are united with there neighbours south of the border, the issude will never go away.

A united Ireland could generate a vibrant economy of its own without having to rely on Britain, we could rely on Europe :-)

Deedsie

futurehope wrote: »

You assume SF and The SDLP are trying to abolish The Union. Perhaps you're right. As regards voting trends, Northern Ireland has a sectarian voting block system, where people vote for their own 'tribe'. This does not precisely correlate to how they would vote in any border poll.

Here's some interesting figures:

All those favouring Irish Unity: 23% of NI Voters
Catholics favouring Irish Unity: 47% of Catholic Voters

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

I think these figures explain where I'm coming from.

Well it shows 78% of the people of Northern Ireland dont want to be ruled by London. Id be happy with an arrangement where Northern Ireland had devolved government, but both the Republic and the UK had the same input into Northern Irish affairs, and that the people of Northern Ireland could decide for themselves what they were.

Would mean a new anthem and flag for the North though?

futurehope

Deedsie said:

Throw the Good Friday agreement out the window if thats the case.

I don't mind if you do. Direct rule from London presents no dilemma to me. In fact, I wouldn't mind seeing the back of all The UK's devolved assemblies.

Nationalists have been living in a partitioned state as it was the will of the people of the North to remain in the UK.

And will remain so. Call a border poll any time you like - I'm pretty sure what the outcome will be.

If this changes and the people of the North seek unity, the unionist population will have to accept it as a term of the GFA. If the start digging there heels in, bring on the UN. Armies on the streets again or unity.

The UN will want absolutely nothing to do with it, except to facilitate the new British Ulster state's recognition, as they did with Croatia, Kosova, etc. As for armies, The Irish Army has little chance of controlling Loyalist areas pending the setting up of any new state - The UK had 50 000 soldiers and police in place to control half a million Northern Nationalists, so The Irish state would need about 100 000 soldiers and police to control a million Loyalists - does The Republic have those men available?

The nationalist vote has been growing in every election, is it not naivety to say there will never be unity. And as for repartition, dont make me laugh, do you think the UK governent or the Dáil would allow that again.

I've already explained to you why a vote for a Nationalist party does not necessarily mean support for Irish Unity. As for re-partition, you will find that The Republic's government will look at it very favourably, if Loyalists reject Irish Unity. You see my young friend, The Irish Government lives in the real world, where it recognises that cries of patriotism tend to dry up when the bill is presented to the population in blood and treasure.

Can'tseeme

Deedsie wrote: »

Well it shows 78% of the people of Northern Ireland dont want to be ruled by London. Id be happy with an arrangement where Northern Ireland had devolved government, but both the Republic and the UK had the same input into Northern Irish affairs, and that the people of Northern Ireland could decide for themselves what they were.

Would mean a new anthem and flag for the North though?

Don't think we'd need a new flag at all mate. I'm from Belfast and I'm represented by the Irish tricolour as much as someone in Donegal. I'm hopeful that more people in the north who are maybe from a unionist background start to feel more at ease with the tricolour as time goes by. Unionists feel represented by the Northern Ireland or Union Jack flags.

There's not going to be a flag or anthem that will bring the people of the north together because that would represent partition which is exactly what nationalists/republicans are against!

O'Coonassa

futurehope wrote: »

cries of patriotism tend to dry up when the bill is presented to the population in blood and treasure.

Indeed, which is why the UK population at large has zero interest in northeastern Ireland remaining a part of the UK. When you become like the Provos and ignore the democratic will of the majority then the Brits will drop you like a brick. You're going to end up stuck in your little 2 or 3 county 'nation' and for what good reason?

Ping Chow Chi

All it would take is a plea by a large number of people to remain part of the union to be flashed over the British tabloid for the figures to change quite dramatically.

I can not see any British goverment walking away from Northern Ireland any time soon as it would be a vote loser, regardless of what polls may indicate at the moment.

Deedsie

futurehope wrote: »

Deedsie said:

I don't mind if you do. Direct rule from London presents no dilemma to me. In fact, I wouldn't mind seeing the back of all The UK's devolved assemblies.

And will remain so. Call a border poll any time you like - I'm pretty sure what the outcome will be.

The UN will want absolutely nothing to do with it, except to facilitate the new British Ulster state's recognition, as they did with Croatia, Kosova, etc. As for armies, The Irish Army has little chance of controlling Loyalist areas pending the setting up of any new state - The UK had 50 000 soldiers and police in place to control half a million Northern Nationalists, so The Irish state would need about 100 000 soldiers and police to control a million Loyalists - does The Republic have those men available?

I've already explained to you why a vote for a Nationalist party does not necessarily mean support for Irish Unity. As for re-partition, you will find that The Republic's government will look at it very favourably, if Loyalists reject Irish Unity. You see my young friend, The Irish Government lives in the real world, where it recognises that cries of patriotism tend to dry up when the bill is presented to the population in blood and treasure.

So you are willing to use your link there about N Irish voting 23% for unity with the republic. But at the same time you'll ignore the wishes of 78% of them to want nothing to do with London Rule.

It might not be a vote for Irish unity but its certainly not a vote in support of the UK. Why would any person who supports the UK vote for an abolitionist party like Sinn Féin?

A party by the way who are gonna be the largest in the North after the 2011 election.

The DUP are gonna lose ground now definitely and the UUP are a relic of there former selves.

The unionist vote is gonna be divided. Sinn Féin should consolidate its position and hopefully the SDLP/Fianna Fáil ticket will bring about the third all Ireland party.

British government and the UN/EU army would all supoport in the policing of Antrim, North Down and Strabane. There your strongholds now. Fermanagh, Tyrone, Armagh and Derry City nationalists communities are growing all the time.

Deedsie

Can'tseeme wrote: »

Don't think we'd need a new flag at all mate. I'm from Belfast and I'm represented by the Irish tricolour as much as someone in Donegal.

There's not going to be a flag or anthem that will bring the people of the north together because that would represent partition which is exactly what nationalists/republicans are against!

I never thought of it that way. Hard to imagine Unionist ever warming to the tri-colour unfortunately.

Can'tseeme

Ping Chow Chi wrote: »

All it would take is a plea by a large number of people to remain part of the union to be flashed over the British tabloid for the figures to change quite dramatically.

I can not see any British goverment walking away from Northern Ireland any time soon as it would be a vote loser, regardless of what polls may indicate at the moment.

The British government signed up to the GFA like the Irish government and the political parties. So it up to the demographic will of the people of Ireland to decide when the north leaves the UK.

Can'tseeme

Deedsie wrote: »

I never thought of it that way. Hard to imagine Unionist ever warming to the tri-colour unfortunately.

A person who political ideal is unionism will not agree with Irish unity. But generations change, people change, attitudes change, we've just come through a horrible part of our history. I happen to think that parts of unionism has warmed to the tri-colour, attitudes haven't been as hard as in the past.

Ping Chow Chi

Can'tseeme wrote: »

The British government signed up to the GFA like the Irish government and the political parties. So it up to the demographic will of the people of Ireland to decide when the north leaves the UK.

Exactly, so all the talk of polls of english people are an irrelevance

futurehope

O'Coonassa said:

Indeed, which is why the UK population at large has zero interest in northeastern Ireland remaining a part of the UK.

Yawn. :P:P:P

When you become like the Provos and ignore the democratic will of the majority then the Brits will drop you like a brick. You're going to end up stuck in your little 2 or 3 county 'nation' and for what good reason?

Yes, you're right, The IRA and their supporters did show the way didn't they? As for establishing an Ulster British state and the relationship it will develop with Great Britain, that won't really be anything to do with The Irish will it?

futurehope

Ping Chow Chi wrote: »

All it would take is a plea by a large number of people to remain part of the union to be flashed over the British tabloid for the figures to change quite dramatically.

I can not see any British goverment walking away from Northern Ireland any time soon as it would be a vote loser, regardless of what polls may indicate at the moment.

Yes, one can imagine the effect on the mainland, when a 12 year old school girl wrapped in a Union Jack is shot dead by The Irish Army whilst The BBC films it...

Can'tseeme

Ping Chow Chi wrote: »

Exactly, so all the talk of polls of english people are an irrelevance

Correct. The people of Britian will have no say in Irish unification.

futurehope

Deedsie said:

So you are willing to use your link there about N Irish voting 23% for unity with the republic. But at the same time you'll ignore the wishes of 78% of them to want nothing to do with London Rule.

Not quite true - here's the actual poll results:

to remain part of the United Kingdom - direct rule: 11%
to remain part of the United Kingdom - devolved government: 55%
to reunify with the rest of Ireland: 23%
Independent state: 5%
Other answer: 1%
Don't know: 5%

It might not be a vote for Irish unity but its certainly not a vote in support of the UK. Why would any person who supports the UK vote for an abolitionist party like Sinn Féin?

Tribal voting? In any case you're ignoring the 40% of the population who didn't vote in the last assembly elections, many of whom would vote in a border poll - and not in balanced manner I suspect, given the fact many Catholics now work for The UK state (PSNI, NHS, civil service, etc).

British government and the UN/EU army would all supoport in the policing of Antrim, North Down and Strabane. There your strongholds now. Fermanagh, Tyrone, Armagh and Derry City nationalists communities are growing all the time.

So The UK will pull out then go back in in support of Irish Nationalism?

:D:D

The EU don't do peace keeping to any great extent, let alone peace enforcement - remember Srebrenica ?

O'Coonassa

futurehope wrote: »

Yawn. :P:P:P

lol it's your own point, don't be bored by it, you're a very interesting fella.

futurehope wrote: »

Yes, you're right, The IRA and their supporters did show the way didn't they?

And you think they acheived what exactly? Nothing so far as I can make out, we're effectively back to 1922 and physical force nationalism is as dead as a dodo.

futurehope wrote: »

As for establishing an Ulster British state and the relationship it will develop with Great Britain, that won't really be anything to do with The Irish will it?

Well so long as it's populated by people born in Ireland it cannot help but have something to do with the Irish. They'll find soon enough that the Brits have no great love for subsidising Paddy especially when he's being anti-democratic and threatening violence.

futurehope

Can'tseeme wrote: »

The British government signed up to the GFA like the Irish government and the political parties. So it up to the demographic will of the people of Ireland to decide when the north leaves the UK.

If a future UK government decides to honour said agreement...

futurehope

Can'tseeme wrote: »

A person who political ideal is unionism will not agree with Irish unity. But generations change, people change, attitudes change, we've just come through a horrible part of our history. I happen to think that parts of unionism has warmed to the tri-colour, attitudes haven't been as hard as in the past.

Yes, some Unionists use the tricolour to 'warm' their bonfires!:D

futurehope

Can'tseeme wrote: »

Correct. The people of Britian will have no say in Irish unification.

Which is about as likely to happen as pigs jumping over steeples.

futurehope

O'Coonassa said:

And you think they acheived what exactly? Nothing so far as I can make out, we're effectively back to 1922 and physical force nationalism is as dead as a dodo.

As is non-physical force nationalism.

Well so long as it's populated by people born in Ireland it cannot help but have something to do with the Irish. They'll find soon enough that the Brits have no great love for subsidising Paddy especially when he's being anti-democratic and threatening violence.

Well, given the amount of cash The UK poured into The ROI (via The EU), and the subsidies paid to 'da North' (half of them to Catholics I assume), it would appear that 'The Brits' are very tolerant of funding said 'paddies' - even when they are anti-democratic and threatening violence as Irish Nationalists were for so long in 'da North'.

:rolleyes:

mrtaylor1981

Can'tseeme wrote: »

A person who political ideal is unionism will not agree with Irish unity. But generations change, people change, attitudes change, we've just come through a horrible part of our history. I happen to think that parts of unionism has warmed to the tri-colour, attitudes haven't been as hard as in the past.

The unionist people wish to remain British, nothing has changed that. Sure Adams and the rest of his followers like to fool themselves that the GFA will result in unionists changing their view on their nationality, which is plainly nonsense.

K-9

Deedsie wrote: »

British government and the UN/EU army would all supoport in the policing of Antrim, North Down and Strabane. There your strongholds now. Fermanagh, Tyrone, Armagh and Derry City nationalists communities are growing all the time.

Strabane?