Cost of Northern Ireland

futurehope

gurramok wrote: »

Bull.

The subject was which people identified themselves as Unionists and which as Nationalists, not a border poll.

Using a silly weeny tiny poll of about 1000 people :rolleyes: instead of that poll call the election which takes in well over a million of the electorate consistently and a much tinier Unionist result and a bigger Nationalist result emerges.

The only definition of Unionist I care about is whether or not someone supports The Union, not whether someone votes for a Unionist party or not. You see my friend, 40% of the electorate didn't vote in the last assembly election, but many of them would vote in any border poll. It is the outcome of that poll that would matter to me, not how many Nationalists get elected to Stormount. In case you've forgotten, there is a double veto that applies in Stormount where even if there was 100 SF members, power would still be shared on a cross community basis, 50:50. Why do you imagine people like me couldn't care less whether Stormount stays or goes? It's nothing more than a talking shop, a gilded cage for one time militant Republicans.

futurehope

Can'tseeme wrote: »

Nah mate, I believe in independence, looking after our own affairs for the betterment of everyone on the island. Which is why I'd get rid of the border rather than to have it continue to restrict the Irish economy. Although I think working in partnership with Britian would be a positive move for both islands. We've go plenty in common.

Do you see benefits in the north working closer with the rest of Ireland futurehope?

I welcome cooperation on any level between The UK (including Ulster) and The ROI, providing it is to the advantage of all concerned.

A Dub in Glasgo

futurehope wrote: »

I welcome cooperation on any level between The UK (including Ulster) and The ROI, providing it is to the advantage of all concerned.

Get your labelling right

UK already includes NI
Ulster is not NI

futurehope

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Get your labelling right

UK already includes NI
Ulster is not NI

Sorry, I should have said British Ulster - I'll stick to that in future.

Deedsie

futurehope wrote: »

Or using the following opinion poll:

to remain part of the United Kingdom - direct rule: 11%
to remain part of the United Kingdom - devolved government: 55%
or, to reunify with the rest of Ireland: 23%
Independent state: 5%
Other answer: 1%
Don't Know: 5%

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

66% are Unionists
23% are Nationalists

Using 1.7 million as population

Unionists: 1,122,000
Nationalists: 391,000

Technical details of the 2007 survey
The overall design
The 2007 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey involved 1179 face-to-face interviews with adults aged 18 years or over. The number of respondents has been reduced from 1800 as in previous years due to problems in securing funding for the survey.


1.7 millioin unionists in Northern Ireland even though over 40% vote for nationalist parties in actual elections. You base this 1.7 million on a survey carried out by Queens university by asking 1179 face to face interviews. Which would have to keep them in the unionist strongholds of Antrim and Down? That survey is about as reliable as a two bob watch.

A load of BS i am afraid. The only poll that can ever be trusted is the assembly and local elections.

In 2007 the Total valid poll 690,191. Electorate: 1,107,904; turnout: 62.31%

The catholic population is 40.7% and the unionists won this election by 5% with a 62% turn out. What makes you think the 38% that didnt turn out to vote were not evenly Nationalist/Unionist?

Or maybe they dont care either way?

Can'tseeme

futurehope wrote: »

I welcome cooperation on any level between The UK (including Ulster) and The ROI, providing it is to the advantage of all concerned.

Good to hear futurehope. When we get away from the blame game, we can start to see there's more in common than we sometimes think.

gurramok

futurehope wrote: »

The only definition of Unionist I care about is whether or not someone supports The Union, not whether someone votes for a Unionist party or not. You see my friend, 40% of the electorate didn't vote in the last assembly election, but many of them would vote in any border poll. It is the outcome of that poll that would matter to me, not how many Nationalists get elected to Stormount. In case you've forgotten, there is a double veto that applies in Stormount where even if there was 100 SF members, power would still be shared on a cross community basis, 50:50. Why do you imagine people like me couldn't care less whether Stormount stays or goes? It's nothing more than a talking shop, a gilded cage for one time militant Republicans.

My friend, it's great to hear that you will tolerate a nationalist majority when it happens. It is such a beacon on democracy you espouse.

Now, that position contradicts with the following:

futurehope wrote:

There won't be 'unity'. In the unlikely event of Catholics becoming a strong majority in Northern Ireland, and in the unlikely event they will all vote for 'unity' in a border poll (in the unlikely event said poll is ever called), Loyalists will set up a new state based upon a re-partitioned NI. Any attempt to deny them self determination will be met with serious disorder. Of course, to be fair, The Irish State knows all this.

So when the numbers go against you, you don't support or respect the wishes of the overwhelming majority of NI?

You've just handed a valid argument to Nationalists/Republicans to not respect the wishes of the majority now.

Pot and kettle comes to mind, redrawing the borders to suit your own position. Your posts are hypocritical on the subject in hand.

getz

if ever there was a united ireland many isues would have to be resolved first--the bigest is the will of the people in the north to want it -for most it would meen giving up a NHS-and other UK benefits,the uk itself unlike other boardies think havent the power to hand over the north to the republic,even if they had [which they havent] the EU constitution has already ruled[ie gibraltar] that it has to be the will of the people ,and thats the way it should be;-i know this as i had a letter from the eu parliment chairman,when i asked the question ,could tony blair give gibraltar to spain against the will of the colony-one thing did come out of it ,gibraltar ended up with its own EU mp very much against the will of the british and spanish goverments -remember soon most decisions will be made by brussels not the uk or ireland

gurramok

To answer the OP, NI is a serious basket case as in graph posted by ADIG and is a failed state financially. It only survives on serious handouts from taxpayers across the water.

It cannot even support itself!

junder

gurramok wrote: »

To answer the OP, NI is a serious basket case as in graph posted by ADIG and is a failed state financially. It only survives on serious handouts from taxpayers across the water.

It cannot even support itself!

So why do you want us so badly then if we are such a basket case, after all we are still going to need the same handouts and support from the RoI if there was ever a united ireland.

gurramok

junder wrote: »

So why do you want us so badly then if we are such a basket case, after all we are still going to need the same handouts and support from the RoI if there was ever a united ireland.

Slash the public sector like what they should do down here, it can be done

Deedsie

junder wrote: »

So why do you want us so badly then if we are such a basket case, after all we are still going to need the same handouts and support from the RoI if there was ever a united ireland.

It not a case of wanting ye so badly. I just want all the people of Northern Ireland who consider themselves Irish to be united with the rest of Ireland.

T runner

futurehope wrote: »

Sorry, I should have said British Ulster - I'll stick to that in future.

Still wrong. The part of Ulster ruled by Britain. Now its accurate.

futurehope

Deedsie said:

1.7 millioin unionists in Northern Ireland even though over 40% vote for nationalist parties in actual elections. You base this 1.7 million on a survey carried out by Queens university by asking 1179 face to face interviews. Which would have to keep them in the unionist strongholds of Antrim and Down? That survey is about as reliable as a two bob watch.

For God's sake Deedsie, at least read what I said:

Unionists: 1,122,000
Nationalists: 391,000

Perhaps I should have said:

small 'u' unionists: 1,122,000
small 'n' nationalists: 391,000

As for the survey itself, I'm sure it was carried out under normal controls covering a representative cross section of The Northern Ireland electorate - unless you can show otherwise. :rolleyes:

The catholic population is 40.7% and the unionists won this election by 5% with a 62% turn out. What makes you think the 38% that didnt turn out to vote were not evenly Nationalist/Unionist?

First of all, as I say, I'm not really interested in how people see themselves, rather than how they view the constitutional issue. The opinion poll I've constantly referred to is my guide. There have been others showing similar results.

These figures might explain your problem further:

Are you a Unionist or a Nationalist?:

Unionist: 36%
Nationalist: 24%
Neither: 40%

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/UNINATID.html


In other words of those who care, 60% are Unionists and 40% Nationalists. But it is amongst the others that soft unionism has a majority. I.e. "I'm not a Unionist, but I favour retaining the link with The UK". Simple really.

T runner

futurehope wrote: »

ardmacha said:
As a matter of interest, do you see The Republic holding together in this recession, or do you think some sort of 'constitutional debate' will emerge, perhaps leading to The ROI falling apart and returning the island of Ireland to pre-British anarchy (outside of British Ulster I mean)?

The most stable part of Ireland in the whole of our history has arguably been in the republic since its formation. Far more stable than the part of Ulster still ruled by Britain for example.

Are the repeated attempts at antagonism a "British Ulster" (Irish) trait or a trait of the actual British living across the water in Britain?

T runner

futurehope wrote: »

Deedsie said:

In other words of those who care, 60% are Unionists and 40% Nationalists. But it is amongst the others that soft unionism has a majority. I.e. "I'm not a Unionist, but I favour retaining the link with The UK". Simple really.

Slaves in the American South may have seen leave to go anywhere on their owners ranch as an improvement on confinement in their quarters after work. These could hardly be described as supporting slavery could they?

Some people would undoubtedly view devolution as a stepping stone to a United Ireland.
Hardly unionists are they?

junder

Deedsie wrote: »

It not a case of wanting ye so badly. I just want all the people of Northern Ireland who consider themselves Irish to be united with the rest of Ireland.

And what of those that don't wish to be part of a united Ireland. And if its just a matter of slashing the public sector budget why has the british government not done so already if its so easy?

futurehope

gurramok said:

My friend, it's great to hear that you will tolerate a nationalist majority when it happens. It is such a beacon on democracy you espouse.

I have no theoretical problem with a Nationalist majority in Stormount, but I suspect you will have quite a wait, given the fact that The Nationalist block in Stormount sits at 41%. As I say, there is a double veto over any changes regardless of who has the greatest number of seats. Little problem there that I can see. And as I've already said, the assembly's continuation is of little interest to me as a UK Unionist. Perhaps Unionists will pull it down at some point?

Now, that position contradicts with the following:

So when the numbers go against you, you don't support or respect the wishes of the overwhelming majority of NI?

Not at all. I've said I have no problem with a Nationalist majority in Stormount (if it's kept going), but you're now talking about a border poll. Yes, to allow for the self determination of The Ulster British to continue, I might consider re-partition on the right grounds. Nothing undemocratic about say giving The West Bank of The Foyle the opportunity to join The ROI, if they wanted to. Would Ireland want them though?

You've just handed a valid argument to Nationalists/Republicans to not respect the wishes of the majority now.

THEY NEVER DID.

futurehope

gurramok wrote: »

To answer the OP, NI is a serious basket case as in graph posted by ADIG and is a failed state financially. It only survives on serious handouts from taxpayers across the water.

It cannot even support itself!

If NI is a 'basket case' then so are Wales and England's North East, amongst others. Can all the Islands of Scotland support themselves? London only thrives due to young people moving there from across The UK, bringing in much needed intellectual capital. Wealth they then generate is distributed to the regions.

In any case, why is someone from The ROI so preoccupied with the internal finances of a foreign country?

Deedsie

futurehope wrote: »

Deedsie said:



For God's sake Deedsie, at least read what I said:

Unionists: 1,122,000
Nationalists: 391,000

Perhaps I should have said:

small 'u' unionists: 1,122,000
small 'n' nationalists: 391,000

As for the survey itself, I'm sure it was carried out under normal controls covering a representative cross section of The Northern Ireland electorate - unless you can show otherwise. :rolleyes:



First of all, as I say, I'm not really interested in how people see themselves, rather than how they view the constitutional issue. The opinion poll I've constantly referred to is my guide. There have been others showing similar results.

These figures might explain your problem further:

Are you a Unionist or a Nationalist?:

Unionist: 36%
Nationalist: 24%
Neither: 40%

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/UNINATID.html


In other words of those who care, 60% are Unionists and 40% Nationalists. But it is amongst the others that soft unionism has a majority. I.e. "I'm not a Unionist, but I favour retaining the link with The UK". Simple really.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/tech07.pdf

There are the technical details of the poll. No indication of what areas were surveyed. 0.145% of the population of Northern Ireland were surveyed.

General election or nothing.

Dunno where you are getting this double veto from. 51% majority in a boundary referendum and thats that.

T runner

futurehope wrote: »

gurramok said:
Not at all. I've said I have no problem with a Nationalist majority in Stormount (if it's kept going), but you're now talking about a border poll. Yes, to allow for the self determination of The Ulster British to continue, I might consider re-partition on the right grounds. Nothing undemocratic about say giving The West Bank of The Foyle the opportunity to join The ROI, if they wanted to. Would Ireland want them though?

Assuming your desperate plan for re-partition will never happen (you would need the support of Catholics in the North who obviously wouldnt sell each other out), what will you then threaten?

mac_iomhair

Deedsie wrote: »

British government and the UN/EU army would all supoport in the policing of Antrim, North Down and Strabane. There your strongholds now. Fermanagh, Tyrone, Armagh and Derry City nationalists communities are growing all the time.

i live pretty close to Strabane, its largely a nationalist area. Maybe Im picking you up wrong here?

gurramok

futurehope wrote: »

Not at all. I've said I have no problem with a Nationalist majority in Stormount (if it's kept going), but you're now talking about a border poll. Yes, to allow for the self determination of The Ulster British to continue, I might consider re-partition on the right grounds. Nothing undemocratic about say giving The West Bank of The Foyle the opportunity to join The ROI, if they wanted to. Would Ireland want them though?

So, its self determination of the 'Ulster British' rather than the people of NI as a whole you respect.

This is an eye opener about movng goalposts, not sure if other Unionists will agree with you, do other posters agree with this position?

futurehope wrote:

THEY NEVER DID.

Good Friday agreement says otherwise.

futurehope

T runner wrote: »

Slaves in the American South may have seen leave to go anywhere on their owners ranch as an improvement on confinement in their quarters after work. These could hardly be described as supporting slavery could they?

Some people would undoubtedly view devolution as a stepping stone to a United Ireland.
Hardly unionists are they?

Sorry, I think you have completely misunderstood the wording of the poll question, here it is again:

"Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it…"
And the respondents said:

to remain part of the United Kingdom - direct rule: 11%
to remain part of the United Kingdom - devolved government: 55%
to reunify with the rest of Ireland: 23%
Independent state: 5%
Other answer: 1%
Don't know: 5%

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

In other words, in THE LONG TERM 66% of the people of Northern Ireland wish to remain part of The United Kingdom. It couldn't be clearer than that.

Deedsie

mac_iomhair wrote: »

i live pretty close to Strabane, its largely a nationalist area. Maybe Im picking you up wrong here?

Pointed out to me earlier mac_iomhar, i meant to say Coleraine. East Derry...

futurehope

Deedsie said:

There are the technical details of the poll. No indication of what areas were surveyed. 0.145% of the population of Northern Ireland were surveyed.

Perhaps it was carried out on The Shankill Road - a University Research Team could easily do something like that by mistake. :rolleyes:

Dunno where you are getting this double veto from. 51% majority in a boundary referendum and thats that.

Double veto applies in all assembly decisions - see SAA.

As regards a border poll, perhaps you can show me exactly where in the Belfast Agreement a "51% majority" is mentioned?

mac_iomhair

Deedsie wrote: »

Pointed out to me earlier mac_iomhar, i meant to say Coleraine. East Derry...

Yes, if I had of kept reading I would have noticed, apologies!

Deedsie

futurehope wrote: »

Deedsie said:



Perhaps it was carried out on The Shankill Road - a University Research Team could easily do something like that by mistake. :rolleyes:



Double veto applies in all assembly decisions - see SAA.

As regards a border poll, perhaps you can show me exactly where in the Belfast Agreement a "51% majority" is mentioned?

The Agreement's main provisions included the:

principle that any change to the constitutional status of Northern Ireland could only follow a majority vote of its citizens.


81% of the people of Northern Ireland agreed to that phrasing.

Are you trying to undermine there franchise now?

Majority rule is a decision rule that selects one of two alternatives, based on which has more than half the votes

futurehope

T runner wrote: »

Assuming your desperate plan for re-partition will never happen (you would need the support of Catholics in the North who obviously wouldnt sell each other out), what will you then threaten?

It could happen. The UK would define what areas of it's sovereign territory it would be prepared to seed to The ROI, a vote would take place in those areas and if passed they would join The ROI. I don't see any of this happening by the way.:rolleyes:

I don't make threats.

mac_iomhair

the only reason the uk holds onto the north is to stop unionist bigots throwing their toys out of the pram.