General election in 2009 according to the bookies

Andy Mc

Year of Next General Election
Singles Only. Applies to the year the Next Irish General Election takes place.

2009 1 - 2

2010 5 - 2

2011 6 - 1

2012 8 - 1


Odds from Paddy Power.

If the bookies are correct then we will have a general election this year or worse case next year, this country cannot move forward unless we get rid of the stale politicians currently running the country, Cowen will go down as the worst Taoiseach in the history of the State and this is coming from somebody who always voted FF in the past.

RealityCheck

My bet would be next year; Cant see it being this year. If I was betting for this year, I would have expected to have seen more friction between the greens and FF by now, but right now they seem happier together than they have ever been:D

gurramok

Nothing will change in a general election. You will get another bunch promising the moon and the stars and then they will have to slash & tax as FF are doing as they have no choice.

Maybe FF will dump the poisoned chalice and the foolish opposition take it up?

Benedict XVI

Excuse me if my calculations are not exact but the only way we can have a general election this year is if the Greens and independents stop supporting the Government

From what I have seen over the past 12 months the Greens seem to be turning a blind eye and deaf ear to all the Government are doing. Until they decide that they are better out than in then there will be no general election.

The longer the Green stay in the less support they will have come election time, if they get out now they can use the excuse that we have had enough and save some face.

Tableman

Excuse me if my calculations are not exact but the only way we can have a general election this year is if the Greens and independents stop supporting the Government

Or if something controversial like the medical card issue comes up and some FF backbenchers withdraw support.

The longer the Green stay in the less support they will have come election time, if they get out now they can use the excuse that we have had enough and save some face.

If they pull out for no particular reason, then they will be accussed of running away then the going got tough and how can you vote a party like that back into office during a recession?

dave-higgz

gurramok wrote: »

Nothing will change in a general election. You will get another bunch promising the moon and the stars and then they will have to slash & tax as FF are doing as they have no choice.

I believe a lot would change. Even if a Fine Gael lead government were similar to FF, a fresh government would have a mandate to make the tough decisions like raising taxes. It would restore confidence to the dail and maybe it reduce the urge for industrial action.

Benedict XVI wrote: »

Excuse me if my calculations are not exact but the only way we can have a general election this year is if the Greens and independents stop supporting the Government

From what I have seen over the past 12 months the Greens seem to be turning a blind eye and deaf ear to all the Government are doing. Until they decide that they are better out than in then there will be no general election.

The longer the Green stay in the less support they will have come election time, if they get out now they can use the excuse that we have had enough and save some face.

+1

The greens themselves are better off in government as they can have influence in insulation bills, carbon taxes etc. However for the good of the country they need to step down. The reason they won't do this is that there is no certainty that they will be returned to government. They're fearful of the Irish electorate and I believe the next government (FG/Labour let's say) won't need the support of the Greens to make up the numbers in the dail. They're being both productive and selfish at the same time

Benedict XVI

Tableman wrote: »

Or if something controversial like the medical card issue comes up and some FF backbenchers withdraw support.

It would take a big revolt by backbenchers to being down the house, backbenchers are notoriously loyal.

Any way what would they gain, they may be re-elected but there is little or no chance that they would be in government.

Tableman wrote: »

If they pull out for no particular reason, then they will be accussed of running away then the going got tough and how can you vote a party like that back into office during a recession?

Pulling out in any circumstances for the Greens in not a good option, if they take the high moral ground and pull out over an issue then they will loose seats in the ensuing election due to their pro FF support for the last 2 years.

If they pull out for no particular reason they will, as you rightly say, be accused of running away and again lose seats in the ensuing election

Therefor I cannot see an election coming anytime soon unless the Greens are willing to take a pasting in the resulting election

Colonel Sanders

Andy Mc wrote: »

Year of Next General Election
Singles Only. Applies to the year the Next Irish General Election takes place.

2009 1 - 2

2010 5 - 2

2011 6 - 1

2012 8 - 1


Odds from Paddy Power.

120.6% over round on a 4 "horse" "race" :eek:

Its not just the gubberment who are trying to screw you out of your cash

Tableman

It would take a big revolt by backbenchers to being down the house, backbenchers are notoriously loyal.

Any way what would they gain, they may be re-elected but there is little or no chance that they would be in government.

I agree, just saying that it was another possibility!

is_that_so

The current majority is 9 and likely to drop to 7 when the by-elections are run. The Independents include two ex FF mavericks and Finian McGrath, who seems to vote against the government on a regular basis. Noel Grealish hasn't quite decided where his heart lies but should vote with the Govt come what may.

Then you have the very trustworthy Healy-Rae and of course Michael Lowry. What all of them have in common, is that collectively they stand a decent chance of being re-elected, even if they help vote down a government. In fact they might even be thanked for it. All it will take is 4 of them voting against the government, assuming the by-elections go against FF.

It's a long way from now till December and FF will have to cope with the Junior Minister restructuring, the all but inevitable pasting in the local elections, Lisbon 2 of course and Batt O'Keefe's plans for university fees. This is probably the only thing the Greens might be expected to bolt on. And all of that before we get our next budget. With a global economy supposedly recovering in 2010, however slowly, we should reach the bottom next year and finances in theory will stabilise a bit more. So the longer they survive into the term the more likely it is they will get to the end. Although getting to the end of a term will not save them, it just may soften some of the damage.

I can see why the odds are shorter this year and I don't think the Govt will be able to last out the year. There are far too many potential and unseen banana skins and FF TDs for all their "loyalty" may struggle to stay in the party ala Joe Behan. The serious lack of talent within the parliamentary party will also make it difficult for them to address issues effectively. And then we have the Greens. While they seem content to ignore any prinnciples or beliefs they ever had, they may find themselves on the side of one unpopular decision too many. Even they have a breaking point.